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Pushing Putin for a ceasefire: Dmytro Kuleba on Ukraine's future and Russia's goals
Listen: What will it take to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? President Trump is pushing hard for a ceasefire deal, but is Vladimir Putin actually interested in negotiation? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer is joined by former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba for a sober assessment of the war with Russia—and what it will take to end it. Kuleba resigned last year amid a cabinet shuffle, but spent years at the heart of Ukraine’s diplomatic fight for survival. As long as Russia believes it can win the war, he says, Putin will never compromise on a meaningful ceasefire deal. That won’t change until the Kremlin faces serious pressure from the White House, which so far has seemed to only offer incentives to Moscow, while punishing Kyiv, according to Kuleba. So is Trump ready to get tough on Putin? And what is Ukraine prepared to offer Russia in return to bring the fighting to an end? Bremmer and Kuleba discuss Putin’s goals in the war, the Trump administration's negotiation strategy, and what it will take to finally bring peace to Ukraine.
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Will Trump pressure Putin for a Ukraine ceasefire?
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump said ending the war in Ukraine would be easy. Again and again, he promised to end the fighting within “24 hours” of taking office. But as president, and as Russia drags its feet in ceasefire negotiations, Trump has walked that confidence back. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks at President Trump’s push for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine and what it will take to bring both sides to the negotiating table. The Trump administration has been engaging diplomatically with Moscow and making it clear to Kyiv that ongoing US support isn’t a guarantee.
The problem is that so far, the Kremlin seems uninterested in meaningful compromise. Instead, it’s been slow-walking negotiations and increasing its demands for concessions, all while advancing on the battlefield and targeting Ukraine’s population centers with drone strikes. Turns out, diplomacy is a lot more complicated than a Manhattan real estate deal: complex, slow, and full of people who don’t care about self-imposed deadlines. But there are signs that the president’s patience with Moscow is wearing thin. As Russia keeps stalling, will Trump start piling the pressure on Putin to make a ceasefire happen?
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Ukrainian troops are fighting in Belgorod, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Chinese troops in Ukraine?
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had captured two Chinese nationals on the battlefield who were fighting alongside Russian troops, and he claimed his country’s security service had “information suggesting that there are many more Chinese citizens in the occupier’s units.”
Importantly, Zelensky did not accuse the Chinese government of sending these troops to Ukraine, though his government has formally asked the Chinese government to comment. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has repeatedly recruited and deployed foreign nationals as mercenaries. The North Korean government has so far provided an estimated 14,000 troops for Russia’s war effort.
China has provided rhetorical and some material support for Russia, but it has kept Vladimir Putin’s war at arm’s length. Beijing has never formally recognized any of Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine, including land the Russians seized in 2014.
Zelensky also acknowledged this week for the first time that Ukrainian troops are operating in Russia’s Belgorod province, which neighbors the Kursk region where Ukraine had already claimed the occupation of Russian territory. Zelensky said these troops are there to protect Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions just across the border.
The presence of Ukrainian troops in Belgorod, which Russian military bloggers have acknowledged in recent weeks despite Kremlin denials, does not represent a major Ukrainian escalation. The number of troops and the land area in which they appear to be fighting are much smaller in Belgorod than in Kursk. But Zelensky’s comment does signal Kyiv’s determination to remain aggressive as Russia ups its own cross-border attacks.Vice President JD Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, tour the US military's Pituffik Space Base in Greenland on March 28, 2025.
The price is right: Greenland edition
It’s just business, baby: The Danes send around $600 million per year to Greenland, and an unnamed official told the Washington Post that the United States is prepared to spend “a lot higher than that” to lure Greenland into America’s orbit. While the US has not shared exactly how much they are prepared to spend, JD Vance recentlyreiterated the claim that Copenhagenhad not “devoted the resources necessary … to keep the people of Greenland safe.”
But that doesn’t explain the combative approach when a US president could simply seek a bilateral meeting with Denmark to discuss opportunities to expand America’s presence in the Arctic. By forcing his territorial interests on Greenland, Donald Trump risks isolating America’s closest partners. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen in Nuuk on Wednesday told reporters, “The US shall not take over Greenland. Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders.”
What does this have to do with Russia and China? Trump and Vance have claimed that acquiring Greenland will protect the island from Russian and Chinese encroachment. But special envoy Steve WitkofftoldTucker Carlson that the US and Russia are “thinking about how to integrate” their Arctic energy policies and “share sea lanes” to send gas into Europe together, suggesting that American ownership of Greenland could foster better cooperation with Russia.
Is there art to this deal? A mix of financial incentives and political ideology is likely behind Trump’s interest in Greenland. Trump has long touted Andrew Jackson as an inspiration and mentioned “manifest destiny” in this year’s inaugural address, so his wandering eyes are to be expected. But here’s a hot take from Ian Bremmer: Maybe Trump and his team “don’t have any reason” for the proposed land grab and all of this “will eventually blow over.”France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference following a summit for the "coalition of the willing" at the Elysee Palace in Paris on March 27, 2025.
Europe divided over Macron’s “reassurance force” for Ukraine
The reassurance force has its share of supporters, notably British PM Keir Starmer. But Italian PM Giorgia Meloni offered “no national participation,” while Czech PM Petr Fiala dubbed the discussion “premature” until ceasefire conditions become known.
Moscow’s response?A hard nyet.Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, claimed that the UK and France are “hatching plans for military intervention in Ukraine” under the guise of peacekeeping. She added, “Russia categorically opposes such a scenario, which threatens a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.”
So far, there has been no formal response from the Trump administration, although special envoy Steve Witkoff referred to the plan as “simplistic” and “posturing” in an interview with Tucker Carlson on March 21. We’re watching to see if there will be further reaction – and whether this will impact ceasefire talks.
The Canadian flag flies on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
Who’s meddling in Canada’s election?
Canada’s foreign interference watchdog is warning that China, India, and Russia plan on meddling in the country’s federal election. The contest, which launched last weekend, has already been marked by a handful of stories about past covert foreign interventions and threats of new ones.
This week, the Globe and Mailreported allegations that India interfered in 2022 to help get Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre elected, though he was not aware of the efforts. They also broke news that former Liberal Party leadership candidate and member of Parliament Chandra Arya was banned from running for leader and reelection because of alleged interference tied, once again, to India.
Now, Canada’s election interference monitoring group is warning that China, India, and Russia will try to interfere in the current election.
Poilievre also accused Liberal leader Mark Carney of being cozy with Beijing due to a $276 million loan Brookfield Asset Management secured from the Bank of China when Carney was Chair of Brookfield’s board. Carney rejected those accusations and, on Wednesday, said that Canada should not pursue greater economic ties with China but should prioritize other Asian nations and Europe.
Other Canadian critics have complained that the US is interfering, citing Donald Trump consigliere Elon Musk’s public statements about the country. But officials say this doesn’t meet the bar for foreign interference. Neither, apparently, do the actions of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith,who recently admitted to Breitbartthat she pressed Trump administration officials to delay tariffs to help elect the Conservatives over the Liberals, since Poilievre would be “the best person” for the White House to deal with given that he would be “very much in sync with the new direction in America.”Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks during a press conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine March 25, 2025.
Russia derails ceasefire agreement, to Trump’s dismay
The United States announced on Tuesday that Russia and Ukraine had verbally agreed to a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea and a moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes. Ukraine confirmed the agreement — which followed marathon talks in Riyadh — and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was grateful to the US for brokering it. But soon after, Moscow introduced fresh conditions for agreeing to a limited ceasefire, including the removal of sanctions on certain Russian banks and exports. Even Donald Trump, in response to Russia’s apparent bait and switch, remarked “it could be they’re dragging their feet,” but said he remained confident that Vladimir Putin wants to strike a deal.
Clouds of war: Russia, meanwhile, is seeking to gain as much ground as possible in Ukraine before there’s a more expansive pause in fighting, incentivizing it to drag out negotiations. On Monday, the Kremlin launched missiles on a residential area in the northeastern city of Sumy that injured 88 people, and a cyberattack hit Ukraine’s ticketing system, resulting in long waits at railway stations. In response, Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s civilian energy infrastructure, which is included in the outline of Tuesday’s ceasefire.
What Ukrainians want: An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians support a broad 30-day truce, according to a March Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll. But just 16% said they would agree to Russia’s publicly stated terms for a fuller ceasefire, with 79% calling it “completely unacceptable.”
What comes next? Trump maintains that he believes both sides want to see an end to the war, and he reiterated that “I just want to see it stop. I also don’t want to pay.” What’s crystal clear is that further talks will be necessary, highlighting how this is merely a bump on the long road to peace in war-torn Ukraine.
“The US can seek to convert these agreements into a broader ceasefire, provided that they hold,” says Alex Brideau, Russia director at Eurasia Group. “The back-and-forth talks the Americans have had with the Ukrainians and Russians demonstrate the challenges the Trump administration will face.”
President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, on March 19, 2025.
Ukraine talks continue in Saudi Arabia after Trump envoy praises Putin
While US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff predicted “real progress, particularly as it affects a Black Sea ceasefire on ships between both countries,” leading to a “full-on shooting ceasefire,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted him, telling Russian state TV on Sunday that “difficult negotiations” await and that “We are only at the beginning of this path.”
Witkoff was also criticized by Western experts for an interview with pro-Trump broadcaster Tucker Carlson that aired Friday, in which he dismissed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s proposed peacekeeping plan for Ukraine as “a posture and a pose” and repeated several Kremlin talking points, including that Ukraine is a “false country.” Witkoff also said that Russia’s control over five Ukrainian regions – of which he was only able to name two – should be internationally recognized and praised Vladimir Putin as “super smart,” adding, “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy.”