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Putin-Trump Ukraine call is a small win for both sides
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: The Putin-Trump call, some 90 minutes long, now over. And I would call this a win for both sides, for the Americans and the Russians, and not horrible for Ukraine and Europe, but kicking the can on what's going to be some big problems down the road and setting out where those challenges are going to be. Why is that?
Well, first of all, Putin said, "No," to the 30-day complete ceasefire, but did give a win to Trump, having accepted a 30-day ceasefire with no conditions with the Ukrainians. The Russians are saying they're prepared to do that, with no gives, as long as it's about targeting energy infrastructure, and in principle, still some discussions around maritime attacks around the Black Sea. Places that frankly the Russians have been irritated with what Ukraine has been able to do with air drones and with sea drones. And also allows the Russians to continue to press for territorial gains over the course of the coming weeks, depleting Ukraine's military capabilities. Plus, the weather's getting warmer, how much damage are you going to do to Ukraine, how miserable you can make them when you're no longer dealing with the freeze is not quite as relevant. So, not a particular loss for the Russians.
The fact that you're going to have less engagement militarily means fewer people will get killed. That's good for everybody involved, frankly. So that's where we are. Did you need 90-minutes to get that going? Not really, because the Russians also want to ensure that they have lots of conversations with the Americans about building business between the two sides, about people-to-people engagement, about finding a way to ensure that there is an ongoing bilateral channel where the Europeans aren't involved, where the Ukrainians aren't involved, that's essential for Putin and that he got. So yes, you have a meaningful, relatively contained ceasefire that maybe you can build on, but you also have a meaningful bilateral channel for broader engagement between the Americans and the Russians that the Ukrainians and the Europeans aren't going to be a part of, and that the Americans have no interest in having the Ukrainians Europeans being a part of.
Now, what Trump has heard from Putin in terms of red lines is that to actually have a comprehensive ceasefire ongoing, that the Russians are demanding, that there is no further intelligence or military support to Ukraine from the United States or Europe. That's obviously a non-starter for the Ukrainians because it means they won't be able to defend themselves as the Russians rebuild. It's a non-starter for the Europeans for similar reasons. Trump might be willing to negotiate that, and if he is, then he and Putin can blame Ukraine and the Europeans for not being able to take a 30-day limited ceasefire and expand it, which is exactly the position that Putin wants to be in. So, Putin giving a little bit in the near-term with the hopes of getting a lot more in the longer-term, getting Trump as it were, a little bit pregnant around a deal so that he's more engaged with the Russians in areas that's going to be more consequential and more costly for Europe and for the Ukrainians.
So that's where we are. We don't know yet whether the Ukrainians are going to accept these limited 30-day terms. I expect they will, because Trump wants them to. And when that happens, the Europeans will be onboard, too. The intention will be to try to use that by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, to try to get a longer, broader ceasefire. But there, the working level conversations between the US and Russia, between the US and Ukraine, are going to be far more difficult and they're probably not going to hold.
It feels a little bit like what we have in Gaza. Relatively easy to get the first iteration of a deal in place where no one's really giving anything up, but as you go into the second phase, you find that the fundamental interests don't actually overlap, and that's why we're fighting again on the ground in Gaza, with the Israelis killing hundreds of people there in the last 24-hours, and it's why I expect ultimately we are not heading towards peace, even though we do get a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine.
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump hold a bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019.
With Putin, Trump settles for less (for now)
Putin offered Trump a ceasefire that would halt attacks by either side on energy infrastructure, a frequent recent target of both Russian and Ukrainian long-range fire. The two sides would exchange prisoners, though it’s not yet clear which ones, and Trump and Putin agreed to begin bargaining over terms for safe shipping in the Black Sea. These are Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire.
A few minutes later, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that, during their “very good and productive phone call,” Putin had agreed to an “immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and infrastructure,” and that all sides would be “working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire” and “an END to this very horrible war.”
This falls well short of the immediate cessation of fighting on land, sea, and air that Trump hoped to announce.
By agreeing last week to Trump’s no-preconditions ceasefire, Ukraine was able to push the diplomatic ball into Russia’s court. Putin has now slapped it back, and it’s not yet clear how the Ukrainian government will respond.
Trump demands Putin sign ceasefire
Trump has no cards. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
Germany's chancellor-in-waiting and leader of the Christian Democratic Union party Friedrich Merz reacts as he attends an extraordinary session of the outgoing lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, on March 18, 2025.
Germany’s vote to boost military spending makes history
On Tuesday, a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament,made history by voting to sharply increase defense spending – by exempting it from limits on the country’s assumption of debt. Germany’s upper house, the Bundesrat, is widely expected to approve this change with a vote scheduled for Friday.
This vote would have failed a week from now when the new Bundestag, with members chosen at the February national elections, is seated, because the country’s far right and far left each oppose the move and would have had the one-third of votes needed to block it. Instead, incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz has scored a resounding political victory.
It’s also big news for Europe and for Ukraine. A decision on Tuesday by NATO members Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia towithdraw from the Ottawa Convention that bans anti-personnel landmines and to begin stockpiling them underlines the current sense of alarm in Eastern Europe over Russia’s future military plans. A surge in German military spending can persuade other NATO members that the money they spend on European security and the defense of Ukraine is less likely to be wasted.Russian President Vladimir Putin could talks with President Donald Trump as early as this week. Artem Priakhin/SOPA Images via Reuters Connect
Moscow demands major concessions in Ukraine ceasefire talks
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss America’s 30-day ceasefire proposal this week after Ukraine endorsed the plan last Tuesday but Putin torpedoed it with a list of conditions. Trump said Sunday that he would speak with the Russian leader on Tuesday and that there were ongoing negotiations about “dividing up certain assets.”
What does Russia want? To allay fears that a pause will give Ukraine a chance to rearm itself, Putin is demanding that Ukraine cease all military mobilization and that the West halt arms supplies. Moscow also wants to formally annex the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, which Russia occupies but has not managed to fully control – something Ukraine adamantly opposes.
Who else is engaging – or not? UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced Saturday that a growing coalition of nations will back Ukraine in its negotiations with Russia, including offering air and peacekeeping support, as well as seizing frozen Russian assets to keep the pressure on Moscow.
Meanwhile, Trump narrowed the role of US General Keith Kellogg from Special Envoy to Moscow and Ukraine to dealing only with Ukraine, reportedly after the Kremlin claimed Kellogg was too close to Kyiv. In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that "General Kellogg, a Highly Respected Military Expert, will deal directly with President (Volodymyr Zelenski), and Ukrainian leadership… He knows them well, and they have a very good working relationship together.” Businessman and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who has previously said that Russia was “provoked” into attacking Ukraine, is now considered the key player in the talks with Putin.
What’s happening on the ground? After a vicious drone assault last weekend, Russian forces are now fighting to expel Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region. Ukrainian soldiers there are vowing to “fight to the bitter end” amid evacuations and destruction in border villages.
A Russian army soldier walks along a ruined street of Malaya Loknya settlement, which was recently retaken by Russia's armed forces in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kursk region, on March 13, 2025.
Putin says he supports ceasefire, but with a huge asterisk
Russian President Vladimir Putinsaid Thursday that he supports a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, in principle, but imposed major conditions ahead of talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow.
He explained that he’s opposed to anything that would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm or compromise Russia’s momentum, in which troops are “advancing practically everywhere” along the front. He also asked who would oversee and enforce a ceasefire along “more than 2,000 kilometers” of frontlines.
A day earlier, Putin visited troops in Kursk, a Russian region where Kremlin forces are currently routing Ukrainian troops who have occupied parts of the region since August.
Putin said a ceasefire could not be used for those Ukrainians to go back to Ukraine. “There are two options,” he said, “surrender or die.”
Most ominously: Putin said any settlement had to address the “long term” and “root causes” of his 2022 invasion. The Kremlin has long pushed for a change in Ukraine’s government, demilitarization of the country, international recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and other Ukrainian territories, and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO.
These terms, functionally a surrender, are not ones that Ukraine could agree to willingly, which puts the ball back in the US court.
Putin said he would like to speak with Donald Trump who, also on Thursday, said that he was open to the idea but that “we have to get it over with fast.”
And that’s the problem: Trump wants fast, Putin wants slow, and the US may not have the leverage, or the willingness, to change his clock.Russia's President Vladimir Putin addresses commanders as he visits a control center of the Russian armed forces in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kursk region, Russia, on March 12, 2025.
With a ceasefire on the table, Putin tells his troops to keep fighting
Russian President Vladimir Putin made a surprise battlefield visit on Wednesday, telling troops in the Kursk region of Russia to “completely destroy” the Ukrainian forces that have occupied parts of the area for nearly seven months.
The visit came as US envoy Steve Witkoff was headed to Moscow to discuss the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, which was agreed by the US and Ukraine at talks in Saudi Arabia earlier this week.
Ukrainian forces first pushed across the border into Kursk last August in a surprise offensive meant to boost Kyiv’s leverage with Moscow. In recent weeks, Ukraine’s positions there have weakened significantly. On Wednesday, Russia said it had reclaimed the strategic city of Sudzha from Ukrainian forces.
In his remarks, Putin gave no indication of whether Russia is prepared to agree to the ceasefire but stressed that Kursk should be fully liberated “fairly soon.”
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trumpsaid the fate of the ceasefire is “up to Russia now.”
Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take on the back of the Riyadh meeting between the Americans and the Ukrainians, a very different reaction to when President Zelensky was visiting the White House just a week and a bit ago. Here we have a Zelensky emissary, senior delegation meeting with Rubio, secretary of State and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and coming out with a significant improvement in Ukraine's position.
First, an end of the suspension of delivery of US military aid and intelligence provision, which is critical for the Ukrainians being able to continue to defend themselves. And in return, Ukraine and the United States both announcing acceptance of terms for a 30-day, no condition ceasefire, end of the fighting exactly where it is right now. No territory changes, hands, no promises of anything beyond that. No guarantees about NATO, no promises not to join NATO, nothing like that. And now it goes to the Russians. And that is clearly not what the Russians wanted to hear.
Now, Zelensky played the cards he doesn't have much better since leaving the White House, saying he would indeed go ahead and sign a critical minerals deal, writing a letter apologizing to the American president for any misunderstandings when they had that meeting together in the Oval Office. But now, Zelensky is no longer an obstacle from Trump's perspective on the path to peace, he's accepted Trump's terms. I expect the Europeans will come out and support that 30-day cease ceasefire in very short order, and the question is for Putin.
Now, Putin is of course gaining territory. He has momentum, and so he doesn't have an awful lot of interest in accepting an immediate ceasefire right now, especially not with any strings attached to it. I mean, he has all sorts of strings he wants to attach to. It wants to ensure that Zelensky isn't president, wants to make sure that Ukraine can, at no point, ever join NATO, has broader conditions in terms of NATO not expanding, of the Americans pulling troops back from their rotations in Poland, in the Baltic states, all sorts of demands that Putin has. And furthermore, Putin has engaged with the United States, both indirectly, as we saw in Riyadh a couple of weeks ago, as well as directly, in a 90 minute phone call with President Trump. And while Ukraine was a part of those conversations, it wasn't the focus. The focus for Putin was a much broader conversation about realigning the Americans and Russians to work together, work together on broader security issues like the Arctic and on nuclear arms control, get the sanctions off that the United States has imposed against Russia and individual oligarchs, and generally normalized relations. And none of that is, at least as of right now, on the table for Putin.
What is on the table for Putin, right now, is accept a 30-day ceasefire, with the lines of territorial control being exactly where they are, including the occupation of a small amount of Russian territory incursed by the Ukrainians who have been fighting there. And I suspect that Putin really doesn't want to accept that. So if you're Putin, what do you do? Well, one thing you do is you try to see how fast you can actually get a face-to-face with Trump so that you don't just talk about that deal, but you put it in the context of a much broader deal and you keep the Europeans out of it, which of course is essential to any larger deal that the Americans and Russians cut because the Europeans continue to see Russia as their principal adversary, their principal enemy. Will he be successful in doing that?
Well, one open question will be, we just heard from Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, but what are we hearing from Trump? Is Trump going to completely support everything they just said? Will he endorse this deal with no qualifiers and say that Putin now has to accept it? Because if he does, that gives less wiggle room for Putin. If he doesn't, and he talks about how this is a great opportunity and we want to have a better relationship, then it gives Putin a little bit of time. It also allows him to put conditionality on what, as of the Riyadh meeting, did not have any conditions.
So certainly for those of us following this very closely, a good meeting for the Ukrainians, a relief for the Europeans, that felt like they were about to have their guy in Kyiv thrown under a bus. There's some rehabilitation that's actually happened. And a very open question for Putin who is a tough negotiator and has shown no indication, heretofore, that he's interested in an immediate ceasefire. He is the one that stands to lose the most from accepting the terms as they just came out of Riyadh and it's very hard to imagine that he'll accept them by themselves, as they are. What are the consequences of that? That's what we're going to have to watch, play out.