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US President Joe Biden welcomes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House on Dec. 21, 2022.
Ukraine wastes no time shooting more Western missiles into Russia
President Joe Biden on Wednesday approved supplying antipersonnel landmines to Ukraine, in yet another major policy shift from the outgoing president. Mines are banned in most countries because they often maim and kill civilians, but Ukraine says they’re needed to halt Russian advances.
The landmines decision comes as Ukraine has also begun using long-range missiles from the US and UK to hit targets inside Russia for the first time, after getting long-awaited permission from Washington and London. Moscow has warned that this could escalate the war. On Tuesday, Putin signed a revised nuclear doctrine that permits him to use atomic weapons in response to conventional strikes by any country “supported” by a nuclear power.
These last-ditch efforts to boost Ukraine are a response to steady Russian advances, North Korean forces joining the fight on Moscow’s behalf, and mounting anxiety across Ukraine and the West about the return of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has questioned US aid for Kyiv and promised to end the war quickly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly open to ceasefire talks, but would insist on major conditions currently unacceptable to Ukraine — including formally ceding vast swathes of Eastern Ukraine to Russia, and ending Kyiv’s NATO ambitions.Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on the situation in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions following an incursion of Ukrainian troops, in August 2024.
Putin loosens the muzzle on Russia's nuclear weapons
Just hours after Ukraine fired US-made long-range missiles at a Russian target for the first time, Vladimir Putinsigned a new Kremlin nuclear doctrine that lowers the threshold for Moscow’s use of nukes. They’re now fair game as a response to a conventional weapons attack.
The timing of the signing is clear. The Kremlin has long warned that Ukraine using US long-rangers could provoke a major response and has made not-so-veiled threats to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Will that happen? There are at least two ways to look at this, and both revolve around one consideration: In two months, Joe Biden will relinquish power to Donald Trump, who campaigned in part on a pledge to end the war in Ukraine.
One school of thought: Make chaos while the sun shines. Putin now has two months to escalate as much as he likes, knowing that the increased danger will only heighten pressure on Trump to push for a peace deal as soon as he takes office.
The other: If it ain’t broke, don’t nuke it. Putin is on a roll right now, advancing in eastern Ukraine while imported North Korean cannon fodder is handling Kyiv’s forces in Kursk, the Russian border region Ukraine has occupied since August. Why risk the international backlash over a nuclear strike now? Better to retaliate with “hybrid warfare” by arming anti-US proxies elsewhere, or messing with infrastructure in Europe (the mysterious “sabotage” of two Baltic Sea communications cables earlier this week shows the vulnerabilities). In other words, Putin has plenty of options for havoc that fall short of splitting the atom.
The wildcard: Ukraine’s aim. If Kyiv inflicts serious damage on Russia’s military capabilities, that could shape the Kremlin’s thinking. Either way, both sides likely see the next two months as a final act for this phase of the war. The race for leverage is on.
Oil tanker SCF Primorye, owned by Russian state shipping company Sovcomflot, transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey, April 29, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Russia’s oil slump, South Africa mine rescue, Somaliland opposition wins election, Japan buys out workers
3.28 million: Russian exports of crude oil fell to an average of 3.28 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to Nov. 17, with shipments from western ports mostly serving Turkey and India falling by nearly 30%. Russia has been trying to restrict flows of oil in coordination with OPEC standards to buoy prices and has pledged further production cuts between March and September of next year.
350: South African authorities are mulling whether to try rescuing at least 350 illegal miners who are hiding in underground shafts at the Stilfontein mine to the southwest of Johannesburg. The miners have remained underground to avoid arrest amid a crackdown on artisanal mining, which is often controlled by gangs. A court order on Monday instructed police to allow those within the mine to leave. Locals say there may be as many as 4,000 miners in the shaft, and authorities are not sure it is safe to send a mission. Some miners have emerged looking frail and malnourished.
63.92: The opposition leader of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahu — better known as “Irro” — won the presidency of the quasi-independent state with 63.92% of the vote, a clear mandate over incumbent Muse Bihi. Irro is promising to boost economic opportunities in Somaliland, especially for women, and hopes to persuade incoming US President Donald Trump to recognize his government independently of Somalia.
9,219: Over four dozen of Japan’s largest companies have paid out 9,219 employees with early retirement and voluntary severance in 2024, roughly triple last year’s numbers. Japanese corporations are historically very reluctant to fire workers, but the yen’s weakness and sluggish growth are forcing companies to streamline with buyouts.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is embraced by US President Joe Biden in the Oval Office back in September 2023.
Biden green-lights long-range missiles, Russia blasts Ukraine
US President Joe Biden reversed course on Sunday and authorized Ukraine to use US-made long-range ATACMS missiles for limited strikes inside Russia, in response to North Korea’s deployment of thousands of troops to aid Moscow. While hoping to deter Pyongyang from deeper involvement, Biden also wants to bolster Ukraine’s offensive capability before President-elect Donald Trump takes office and makes good on his pledge to cut American aid to Kyiv.
How might Moscow respond? According to Eurasia analyst Alex Brideau, Russian President Vladimir Putin may respond in kind. “Putin indicated over the summer that he would arm US adversaries in response to Western weapons being used on Russian territory. There have been subsequent reports this fall that Russia has offered some support to Houthis attacking shipping in the Red Sea,” Brideau says.
But if the missiles are used to fire deep into Russian territory, the Kremlin warned early Monday that it would see this as an attack from the US, not Ukraine, and said Biden was adding “oil to the fire” with this policy reversal.
Winter warning. Biden’s announcement also follows Russia’s launching of 120 missiles and 90 drones this weekend, its most intense offensive since September. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure across the country ahead of the cold winter months. While Ukrainian forces neutralized 144 of the projectiles, thermal energy plants suffered “significant damage,” resulting in emergency blackouts, and at least two people were killed and several others were injured, including two children. Although Ukraine’s nuclear plants were not directly hit, key electrical substations were. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, only two of Ukraine’s nine reactors are now operating at full capacity.
A response to Scholz? The Russian strikes come two days after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called President Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years. Though Scholz urged Putin to withdraw his troops, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky slammed the call for opening a “Pandora’s box” that could undermine efforts to isolate Moscow.Accompanied by tugs, the LNG tanker "Hellas Diana" transports a cargo of LNG to the "Deutsche Ostsee" energy terminal.
Germany rejects Russian natural gas shipments
Danke, but no danke. The German government has reportedly ordered its ports to reject all cargoes of liquefied natural gas, aka LNG, coming from Russia, according to the Financial Times.
The move completes a striking turnaround for Germany, which for decades was the world’s largest importer of Russian gas. But since Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, piped gas shipments have been cut by both sides. Germany now imports zero gas directly from Russia.
The US angle: Geopolitical considerations are afoot. While other countries in Europe still import small amounts of Russian LNG under long-term contracts, the EU broadly is looking to import more of the stuff from the growing American market.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyenraised this issue with Trump during her post-election phone call to him last week. The EU is likely hoping that increased purchases of American LNG could mollify Trump’s pledge to impose blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all US imports.
Firefighters work at the site where an industrial area was hit by a Russian missile strike in the Kyiv region on Nov. 13, 2024.
Russia fires on Kyiv
The attack also renewed fears that, with the approach of winter, Russia will again attack energy infrastructure targets in Ukraine to leave parts of the country without power or heat for extended periods. Ukraine’s state-owned national power company announced on Wednesday that new limits will be imposed on electrical supply for businesses in and around Kyiv and in the regions of Odesa, Dnipro, and Donetsk.
Nobelist Oleksandra Matviichuk on Russia-Ukraine war reshaping world order
Matviichuk highlighted that Ukraine is confronting not just Russia but an entire authoritarian bloc, including Iran, China, North Korea, and Syria. "Ukraine is not a goal. Ukraine is a tool how to break international order," she stated, underscoring that the conflict represents a broader challenge to global democratic values.
When asked about the future of US support, particularly in light of Donald Trump's re-election, she expressed uncertainty but affirmed Ukraine's resolve: "We don't know what will be the policy of the next president's administration, but what we know for sure is that Ukrainians will continue our fight for freedom. We have no other choice."
This conversation was presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical debates on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Follow GZERO coverage of the Paris Peace Forum here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage
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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend a state reception in Pyongyang, North Korea, in June, 2024.
Can North Koreans help Russia push Ukrainians out of Russia?
North Korea's state-controlled news agency KCNA announced on Tuesday that the country has ratified a strategic partnership agreement that allows Russia to use North Korean troops to help push Ukrainians from Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukrainian, US, NATO, and South Korean officials have warned in recent days that Russia has amassed a force of about 50,000 troops to try to evict Ukrainian forces from Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions – and they say the force includes 10,000-12,000 North Koreans.
The presence of North Korean soldiers could help Russia push forward with its offensive in Ukraine’s East. But beyond the ability of the North Koreans to draw Ukrainian fire away from Russian forces, it’s not clear how effective they will be on the battlefield. None of them has significant combat experience, and the Ukrainians they will be deployed to attack have been fighting in their country’s Donbas region for a decade.
In addition, throughout this war, Russian forces have faced command-and-control issues. It remains to be seen how Russian commanders can effectively coordinate real-time battlefield maneuvers with large numbers of non-Russian-speaking troops.