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Hard Numbers: Prize money for Olympic gold, Trump tried to tank surveillance bill, EU court annuls Russian oligarch sanctions, US approves missile sale for Ukraine
702: On Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson faced significant opposition from Republicans influenced by former President Donald Trump's call to reject an extension of Section 702, a controversial measure in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that allows for warrantless surveillance of foreigners abroad. Despite Trump's misleading association of Section 702 with his campaign's surveillance, his stance has made the bill's fate uncertain, with potential Republican defections and unanimous Democratic opposition due to inclusion of an unrelated condemnation of Joe Biden’s border policies in the bill.
1,700: The EU General Court on Wednesday annulled sanctions against two Russian oligarchs, citing insufficient evidence of their involvement in undermining Ukraine's sovereignty. Despite the ruling, they remain sanctioned pending a separate appeal. The decision is a setback for the EU's sanctions regime and could provide a precedent for the 1,700 other Russian oligarchs currently under sanction.
138 million: While a larger US assistance package remains stalled in Congress, the State Department on Tuesday approved a $138 million emergency sale of air defense equipment to Ukraine to bolster its defenses amid ongoing Russian assaults. This move – driven by an "emergency" need for the Hawk Phase III missile system – comes as Ukraine faces intensified air attacks and is desperate for more allied support.Hard Numbers: US seeks Russian assets for Ukraine, Iranian funds refrozen, King Charles acknowledges Kenya colonization, France bans pro-Palestine demonstrations
300 billion: US officials are pushing allies to put their frozen Russian reserves toward helping Ukraine. Western governments have an estimated $300 billion of frozen Kremlin reserves across a multitude of bank accounts, but most of them are in Europe, where central bankers have expressed fears that seizing the money could pose major legal and financial risks. But with Republicans pushing to limit Ukraine aid, the US is looking for alternatives.
6 billion: Speaking of frozen assets … The US and Qatari governments have taken back their agreement to unfreeze $6 billion of Iranian assets for humanitarian aid because of Iran’s backing of Hamas. The agreement was a part of a deal to free detained Americans, and the Biden administration has faced unfounded allegations that the funds could have fueled the attacks. As of now, Washington sees no evidence that Iran was directly involved in the attacks, but Tehran has supported the terrorist organization with weapons and training.
60: King Charles announced he will visit Kenya this month to commemorate the 60th anniversary of its independence from Great Britain and to acknowledge the painful history of British colonial rule. The state visit comes at the invitation of Kenya’s President William Ruto and will be Charles’ first visit to a commonwealth country since he became king.
100: France, home to Europe’s largest Jewish population and second-largest Muslim one, banned all pro-Palestinian demonstrations after recording 100 antisemitic acts since Saturday. Ten French citizens died in the Hamas attack, and 17 others are missing, including four children. Security has also been put in place around the homes of French Jewish politicians to deter attacks.Larry Summers explains the banking crisis
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers discuss a range of topics, including the global banking system, the impact of AI on the labor market, and a controversial solution for rebuilding Ukraine.
Summers, an expert on inflation, provides valuable insights into recent bank failures that have caused concern among investors worldwide. He discusses whether the current situation constitutes a banking crisis, explores the role that inflation is playing in contributing to the banking problems, and makes predictions about the duration of the current financial turmoil.
He and Bremmer also touch on the impact of AI on the labor market, with Summers warning of significant changes that will cause profound shifts in traditional hierarchies and ways of thinking, which may make influential groups uneasy.
Summers also offers a provocative solution for rebuilding Ukraine: seizing frozen Russian assets.
Note: this interview was featured on an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on April 3, 2023: The banking crisis, AI & Ukraine: Larry Summers weighs in
Podcast: Larry Summers breaks down the banking crisis
Listen: On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers discuss the recent bank failures that are disrupting global markets and worrying investors worldwide. They discuss whether the current situation constitutes a banking crisis and explore the role of inflation in contributing to the problems. As an inflation expert, Summers provides valuable insights and predictions on the duration of the financial turmoil.
Additionally, he warns of the significant changes that AI could bring to traditional hierarchies and proposes a controversial solution for rebuilding Ukraine: seizing frozen Russian assets.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- Podcast: Inflation nation: How Larry Summers predicted skyrocketing prices in the US ›
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Hard Numbers … after a year of war in Ukraine
300,000: Human losses on both sides of the conflict are mounting (and disputed), but there have been a whopping 300,000 military and civilian deaths on both sides, according to high-end estimates.
2.1 & 0.3: Russia’s economy contracted by just 2.1% last year, far less than predicted, due to continued sales of its discounted crude oil and adaptability. The IMF predicts a 0.3% growth rate for Russia this year thanks to high export prices.
51,000 vs. 40,600: Having seized roughly 51,000 square miles of Ukrainian land by late March last year, Russia has since lost roughly one-fifth of that. The Kremlin now controls about 40,600 square miles (17% of Ukraine), entirely in the south and east.
18 & 60: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has decimated the country economically, with roughly 60% of Ukrainians now living below the poverty line, compared to 18% before the war.
35 & 139 billion: Ukraine’s GDP has diminished by 35%, and Russian targeted attacks are slamming the country’s infrastructure, having caused US$139 billion worth of damage (so far). Well over a third of the country is now dependent on humanitarian aid to live.
Up to 1 million: A reported 8,087,952 Ukrainian refugees are now spread across Europe, with close to 5 million seeking temporary asylum. Millions more are displaced within Ukraine. An estimated 500,000 to 1 million Russians have fled their homeland, driven by economic unrest, politics, and military mobilization.
Ian Bremmer: The West is united on Russian energy, the rest of the world is not
With talk at this year’s Munich Security Conference from most of the world’s most powerful countries about decoupling from Russian energy, it can be easy to forget that most of the world’s population has other priorities.
“What we're seeing is that a majority of the world's economic strength and certainly military strength really wants to put Russia back in a box, but a majority of the world's population does not. And that is because of what's happened with the pandemic. It's what happened with climate change”, said Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
Europe, he explains, can better afford to move away from Russian sources of energy than developing countries, who are increasingly feeling distant and fragmented from the West, and richer countries shouldn’t forget that.
Watch the full Global Stage Livestream conversation here: Is there a path ahead for peace in Ukraine?
Why Russia's war is going "very badly" for Putin
Is there any end in sight for the Russia/Ukraine war? Not according to German diplomat and Munich Security Conference head Christoph Heusgen, who spoke to Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
"I believe this will go on for some time. Putin is not ready to give in and Zelensky will continue to fight."
With both sides dug in, the only certainty is that more people will die as winter descends on the region. And while Western Europe's resolve for Kyiv's cause remains strong, there may be some cracks beginning to show.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity
Can Rishi Sunak restore UK economic and political stability?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What are the key tasks for the new UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak?
Well, basically restore some credibility in the ability of the UK to govern itself in a reasonable way after the tumultuous months that we have seen. That applies to management of the economy. That applies to, sort of, cohesion in the Conservative Party. And that applies also, to restoring some sort of sense in the approach to cooperation with the rest of Europe. So quite a tall order.
Will European support for Ukraine hold up as a cold winter might be approaching?
I'm quite confident it will. And as a matter of fact, if you look at the gas situation in Europe after the cut-up of all Russian gas, it looks better than most people had thought. I mean, the reserves are filled up fairly well. And if is not going to be a particularly hard winter, I think it looks fairly okay, there will be some difficulties, but overall, quite confident support will hold up. Very strong statement on those lines, by the way, by the new Italian prime minister as well.
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