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Ugandan police officers detain protestors during a rally against what the protesters say are rampant corruption and human rights abuses by the country's rulers in Kampala, Uganda July 23, 2024.
Kenyan-inspired protests spread across Africa
Kenyan President William Rutonominated four opposition ministers to his new “broad-based” cabinet on Wednesday to appease growing government dissatisfaction – a move that's already being labeled a corrupt bribe by protesters. Earlier this month, Ruto fired most of his cabinet after weeks of student-led protests against proposed tax hikes and government corruption led to 50 deaths and calls for his resignation.
Wednesday's move came after last week’s appointment of 11 ministers – six of whom had been in the previous cabinet – drawing concerns that Ruto’s pledges for radical change were just words and that he will continue to choose personal politics over national interests. Protesters have been urged to accept Ruto’s concessions and engage in constructive dialogue, but demonstrations continue as Ruto refuses to step down.
New Kenyan-inspired protests. These calls for change are now being echoed across the continent. In Uganda, youths inspired by their Kenyan counterparts have taken to the streets in anti-corruption protests – a move authoritarian President Yoweri Museveniwarned was “playing with fire.” Ugandan forces besieged the activists’ headquarters on Monday, and authorities arrested more than 40 people – including three opposition lawmakers – at banned protests the following day.
Hoping to mirror the successes of Kenyan protests, young Nigerians have also taken to social media to organize a demonstration on Aug. 1 against the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has called on youths not to join the “sinister” protests, as the government begs for more time to address economic hardships.
Members of the second contingent of Kenyan police greet each other after arriving in the Caribbean country as part of a peacekeeping mission, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti July 16, 2024.
Double duty: Kenya and Bangladesh try to balance domestic crises with Haiti aid
Haiti’s Prime Minister Garry Conillecalled for gangs to surrender their weapons and recognize the state’s authority late Wednesday, as a Kenyan-led police mission there enjoys some early success.
Some 200 officers arrived in late June and are trying to take back the capital from gangs that launched a series of highly coordinated attacks in February, ousting former Prime Minister Ariel Henry and seizing about 80% of the capital. The mission received another 200 Kenyan officers on Tuesday, and, within the coming months, the multinational force is expected to see recruits from other countries, including Bangladesh. But oddly enough, both Nairobi and Dhaka are facing severe challenges to law and order at home.
Kenya is entering its second month of deadly protests calling for the resignation of President William Ruto. But Ruto has doubled down, banning protests in Nairobi mere hours before a demonstration was planned for Thursday. Protests are likely to continue and will be met by a violent police response.
Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, at least 32 people have been killed in police clashes during nationwide, student-led protests this week. The young activists are demonstrating over quotas that reserve 30% of government jobs for relatives of veterans of Bangladesh’s 1971 War of Independence. Protesters announced they will force a nationwide shutdown in response to the police brutality in one of the most severe challenges yet to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has ruled for 20 years.
We’re watching for signs of whether the security mission’s main contributors feel they need to put their own houses in order before helping Haiti.
Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) leaves the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York after the second day of deliberations after an indictment for an alleged 16 counts of conspiracy on July 15, 2024, in New York City. Menendez is charged with using his political influence to benefit Egypt in exchange for compensation, a scheme orchestrated by his wife and by three business co-conspirators, Wael Hana, Jose Uribe and Fred Daibes who are charged with similar crimes relating to payments made to Menendez on Monday September 25, 2023 the Senator denied all allegations and that the $500,000 found in his house by agents is an old fashioned way of safeguarding money against emergencies.
Hard Numbers: Sen. Menendez found guilty, Protests turn deadly in Kenya, China’s readers scoop up Vance’s book, Rwanda’s early vote count in, Bangladeshi protests claim lives
16: Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey was found guilty on Tuesday of all 16 counts in his federal corruption trial, including bribery, acting as a foreign agent (a first for a US senator), and fraud. Prosecutors said “he put his power up for sale,” lending support in exchange for money, gold bars, and other bribes in a yearslong scheme. He faces decades in prison when he’s sentenced on Oct. 29.
1: One person was killed Tuesday in violent anti-government protests that resumed in Kenya less than a week after Kenyan President William Rutodismissed most of his cabinet to demonstrate his commitment to make radical changes to the demonstrators. The protests first broke out last month – 39 people were killed, and demonstrators breached the Parliament building – in response to a deeply unpopular finance bill that aimed to raise $2 billion in taxes to offset worsening economic crises. Ruto backed down from the tax, but protesters are still demanding that he resign.
10: After his selection as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential running mate, JD Vance’s memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” – which highlights difficulties faced by the white working class in America – sold out immediately in China, and online prices for used versions there increased tenfold. Since its release in 2016, the book has become one of China’s best-sellers, but Vance does not return this affection. In fact, he has called China America’s greatest threat.
99.15: Rwanda’s electoral commission reported that President Paul Kagame secured his fourth term in Monday’s election, with early reports showing him winning 99.15% of the vote. This is not a big surprise given that the election was deemed by many as neither free nor fair. Kagame has been in power for over 30 years, and he stands accused of cracking down on dissent and political opposition.
5: At least five people were killed on Tuesday in Bangladesh during ongoing violent protests calling for an end to public-sector job quotas that ensure 30% of government jobs are reserved for family members of Bangladesh War of Independence veterans. Clashes first broke out Monday at universities and have since spread nationwide, with tens of thousands taking to the streets to voice their anger over persistent high youth unemployment.
Kenya's President William Ruto speaks at a press conference where he announced spending cuts in government after protests againstKenya's proposed finance bill 2024/2025, in Nairobi, Kenya, July 5, 2024.
Kenyan president fires cabinet in bid to retain power
In the wake of mass protests over proposed tax increases that turned deadly last month, Kenyan President William Ruto fired the bulk of his cabinet on Thursday, signaling that he’s willing to make radical changes.
Protests broke out in June in response to a finance bill passed by parliament to raise over $2 billion in taxes. The demonstrators brought chaos to Nairobi, killing 39 people and breaching the nation’s parliament building. The violence forced Ruto to abandon the bill, and he’s been implementing a series of measures to reduce government spending. With his cabinet reshuffle — he sacked all but his deputy president and prime cabinet secretary — Ruto hopes to quell angry protests calling for his resignation by showing he’s listening and willing to be more flexible.
Ruto said he would “immediately engage in extensive consultations across different sectors and political formations, with the aim of setting up a broad-based government,” which could mean the possible inclusion of opposition parties in the new government.
What now? Cash-strapped Kenya will be forced to dig into other country’s pockets, widening their already worrisome foreign deficit amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis. And although protesters celebrated this as a victory, Kenyans have demonstrated that they are happy to take to the streets when they’re unhappy.
Eurasia Group analyst Imani Jaoko explains this may be enough to stop the protests, but one “can’t rule out the prospect that future missteps could galvanize the protesters ... who seem pleasantly surprised by their newfound power and are keen to build on it.”
Kenya’s president does a 180 after deadly protests
Kenyan President William Ruto on Wednesday caved to the demands of protesters and scrapped a controversial finance bill. The legislation, which would’ve raised taxes on a population already struggling with high living costs, sparked mass protests that led to a deadly police response this week.
“I will not sign the 2024 finance bill,” Ruto said Wednesday amid widespread outrage over the deaths. “The people have spoken.”
What’s next? The move will appease Western donors, older voters, and certain lobbying groups who backed the young protesters but also want to see calm restored, says Imani Jaoko, a Nairobi-based analyst for Eurasia Group.
But the young voters who spearheaded the demonstrations “are not going to relent,” adds Jaoko, because people have died, and they see this U-turn as coming too late.
Ruto initially pledged a strong response to the protests, which also called for his resignation. Though he’s done a 180, it actually “emboldens” the demonstrators, says Jaoko, who are now aiming not only for the finance bill but “the administration’s failures in whole.”
Still, older voters, among other groups, will probably push the young protesters to “take the ‘win,’” adds Jaoko, noting that it’s unlikely the calls for Ruto to resign will reach a level where he feels compelled to step aside.
People attend a demonstration against Kenya's proposed finance bill 2024/2025 in Nairobi, Kenya, June 25.
Protests turn deadly as Kenyans storm Parliament
Kenyans enraged over a new finance bill that would increase taxes attempted to storm Parliament in Nairobi on Tuesday, prompting police to use live ammunition. Part of the building was set on fire, and multiple people were reportedly killed.
The demonstrations, which have also spread to other major cities and led Kenya to deploy the military, have been “a long time coming” and reflect the general mood across the country, says Caroline Gray, a Fulbright scholar based in Nairobi.
Kenyans — especially the younger generation, which is driving the protests — are fed up with the high cost of living and rising unemployment. “These proposed tax increases on everyday, basic goods have pushed people over the edge,” says Gray.
The protesters wanted lawmakers to scrap the bill, which aims to ease Kenya’s sizable debt burden, but it was pushed through Parliament on Tuesday. President William Ruto can now either sign the legislation or send it back for amendments.
Many young Kenyans who once supported Ruto feel betrayed and are now calling for his resignation. “They feel Ruto is taking instruction from the IMF,” says Gray, which recently gave Kenya additional loans to help with its financial problems – but with conditions to ensure repayment.
Meanwhile, the Kenyan government just sent a large police force to help quell gang violence in Haiti, which bolsters the view among the population that Ruto is “not working for them but for his global image,” Gray adds.
The president has two weeks to act on the legislation. Ruto on Tuesday pledged a tough response to the “treasonous” protests. In the meantime, if Ruto doesn’t make changes to the bill or other concessions, Gray says the protests are likely to “continue and escalate.”
Residents of the Carrefour Feuilles neighborhood gather outside a military base demanding help after they had to flee their homes when gangs took over, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, in August 2023.
The country that wants to take on Haiti’s gangs
Who on earth would want to fight the gangs of Haiti?
Kenya, for one.
In early August, the East African nation offered to lead a UN-backed policing mission to corral the gangs that have wreaked havoc on Haiti ever since the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in 2021 plunged the Caribbean nation into fresh political and economic chaos.
Several weeks later, a Kenyan security team spent several days in Port-au-Prince, meeting with local officials, UN representatives, and US diplomats to craft a peacekeeping proposal.
The situation there continues to deteriorate by the day. Gangs now control 80% of the Haitian capital. Gang-related violence and kidnappings have displaced at least 165,000 Haitians. In late 2022, a gang takeover of fuel depots put nearly half of the country’s 11 million people at risk of starvation.
The chaos has paralyzed the government of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who took over after Moise’s death but has no electoral mandate. Elections would be nearly impossible to hold under the current conditions.
Both Henry and the UN have called for outside help. The US too, which this week called on all of its own citizens to leave Haiti, has backed the idea.
If it happens, it would be the first time any African Union country has led a major peacekeeping operation beyond the continent.
But why, exactly, is Kenya signing up for this? After all, warring with Haitian gangs sounds like a distinctly thankless and possibly fruitless task.
Nairobi framed its proposal as a mission of brotherly assistance to people of African descent. But analysts say it’s part of a broader agenda to raise Kenya’s international profile.
Kenya has a long history of participating in international forces within Africa – Sierra Leone in the late 1990s, Somalia since 2011, and the Democratic Republic of Congo since late last year. But since President William Ruto came to power last year in a bitterly contested election, Nairobi’s foreign policy has become “significantly more adventurous,” says Connor Vasey, an East Africa specialist at Eurasia Group.
In addition to the DRC intervention, Ruto hosted the peace talks that ended the war between Ethiopia’s government and Tigray rebels, and he leads a multilateral group mediating Sudan’s current civil war as well. Next week, he is hosting the United Nations’ African Climate Week in Nairobi.
By looking toward Haiti, Ruto is signaling that he wants to take Kenya’s role on the international stage to the next level, says Mercy Kaburu, an assistant professor at United States International University in Nairobi.
“Under this new government,” she says, “Kenya is asserting itself as an African country that is willing to go out of its comfort zone, a country that can undertake more complicated global roles.”
Is there a US angle here? Yes. Washington is keen to see the situation in Haiti stabilize. The humanitarian crisis has driven a surge in irregular immigration from Haiti to the US, and the country’s descent into a gang-wracked failed state is an open invitation to drug cartels and other transnational criminal organizations to take root there.
But at the same time, the US – which has its own checkered history of interventions in Haiti – has ruled out intervening directly. If Kenya wants in, Washington seems glad to back Nairobi. And Ruto has, in fact, been keen to deepen ties with Washington again after his predecessor forged stronger relations with China.
Vasey at Eurasia Group says there’s reason to believe the US may offer some “financial incentives” to Kenya in exchange for taking on the Haiti mission. Last year, the US sent close to a billion dollars of aid to Kenya.
Not everyone loves the idea of Kenyan intervention. Rights groups point out that Kenya’s police have a history of using excessive force and carrying out extrajudicial killings at home.
Language barriers could also be an issue, as Kenyan policemen generally don’t speak French, much less Haitian Creole.
And among ordinary Haitians, there has long been a deep skepticism of foreign interventions of any kind. They have never brought lasting peace but they have, on occasion, brought epidemics of cholera, as the UN peacekeepers from Nepal did a decade ago. The sight of a government with no popular mandate inviting yet another foreign intervention may not go over well with ordinary Haitians.
The stakes are high. Thousands of ordinary Haitians have braved the streets in recent weeks to protest against the gangs. And many Haitians, desperate for order, have formed vigilante groups of their own, killing hundreds of suspected gang members. Last weekend, a church group armed with sticks and machetes clashed with a local gang outside of Port-au-Prince, leaving at least 7 people dead.
With that kind of violence, even Kenya seems worried. The Kenyan mission to Haiti resulted in a more limited proposal than what Haitian officials had hoped for. Rather than a broad strategy for tackling the gangs, Kenya suggested a narrower focus on securing critical infrastructure. And, according to one report, Kenyan officials were so spooked by the escalating violence that they barely left the Port-au-Prince airport.
What’s next: Kenya will need to finalize its proposal and take it to the UN for a vote. That could happen in the coming weeks. In the meantime, Haitians continue to live a daily hell with no end in sight.