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Europe’s last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
Frequently called Europe's last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko Lukashenko has sailed smoothly to victory in all six elections he's stood in, despite widespread corruption and fraud in each one. But in 2020 the biggest threat so far to Lukashenko's tight grip on government came in an unlikely package—a former schoolteacher and stay at home mom, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. After the election result was finalized, Lukashenko claimed victory, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets, and Tsikhanouskaya leads the opposition in exile. Lukashenko recently took his boldest move yet, diverting a plane en route from Greece to Lithuania to arrest another Belarusian dissident. Ian Bremmer discusses whether a democratic transition is remotely possible in Belarus on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
- Life under dictatorship in Belarus - GZERO Media ›
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- Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions - GZERO Media ›
Is there actually a bromance between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko?
Do Russian president Vladimir Putin and Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko actually have a good relationship, as photos of them together on Putin's yacht would suggest? Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya commented, "You know, the strangest thing, maybe the most obvious thing, is that the whole world understands that these two people are not friends. They are making this picture to try to persuade the Russians and the world that they are together." The reality, in her opinion, is that Moscow may be looking for suitable candidates to replace Lukashenko in a new election, because the crisis in Belarus is very inconvenient for the Kremlin. Tsikhanouskaya would prefer that Russia not interfere with Belarusian politics, she said in a conversation with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
Podcast: Fighting for democracy in "Europe's last dictatorship"
Listen: Is there a path to democracy for Europe's last dictatorship, Belarus? Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discusses her hopes and fears for the country with Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast. President Alexander Lukashenko has maintained a tight grip on power in Belarus for the last 26 years and rigged the results of his last election which led to widespread protest and unrest in his country, though few consequences globally. But will he now be held accountable after diverting a flight between two European capitals to arrest a dissident journalist? And just how close are he and Vladimir Putin?
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US global reputation a year after George Floyd's murder; EU sanctions against Belarus; Olympics outlook
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on World In 60 Seconds (aka Around the World in 180 Seconds) with help from Moose the dog:
On the anniversary of George Floyd's murder, have race relations in the United States tarnished its reputation globally?
Sure it doesn't help. There's no question in the United States is one of the most racially divided and violent countries among advanced industrial democracies. And to the extent that the United States attempts to talk about human rights globally, it has a harder time doing that than other G7 countries would. And the Russians historically, and increasingly the Chinese, are trying to propagandize pretty hard by pointing out American hypocrisy. So I think it matters, but I would still argue that what the United States does internationally probably matters a lot more in terms of the way the US is perceived by those countries. So, no question it's important. And the legacy one year in, so far in the United States in terms of improving race relations, the state of that trajectory does not look great right now.
The EU levied sanctions against Belarus. Now what?
Well, the EU responded collectively and quickly, that we can definitely say, in terms of preventing Belarus' flag carrier from traveling to points in Europe, as well as stopping European airlines from flying through Belarus airspace, that's a good first move. They've said there'll be additional sanctions, let's see what they are. Let's see if they're significant, if they're against Belarusian oil or potash, where they make their real money. Let's see if they really hurt the economy, which would also have knock on effects for Russia, which exports a lot of energy into Belarus, they'd be unhappy about that. So we'll see. For the first 24 hours, I give the EU, the United States, the UK, all pretty strong marks for the way they've responded. But this is an unprecedented act of state criminality on the part of a very illegitimate Lukashenko, who should not be president, was not legitimately elected, and he's not going anywhere anytime soon. I want to see what next sanctions come from the Europeans. I also want to see the Putin meeting in Sochi with Lukashenko next week, very important.
Finally, with the US adding Japan to the, "do not travel list," what's the outlook on the Olympics?
Not great. Over 80% Of Japanese now say that they actually don't want the Olympics to go forward, that's a pretty staggering number. The Japanese prime minister says, "It's not up to me, it's the IOC. And the IOC has the decision. They say it has to go forward." Look, the prime minister has sovereignty, if he wants to cancel it, he can cancel it, though clearly there will be costs for the Japanese government, major economic costs, major political costs for the prime minister either way. It's really staggering to see just how much the Japanese have lagged every other advanced industrial democracy in terms of a vaccine rollout. And, and I still think there's a good chance they do end up canceling this, but it's going right down to the wire. And my heart goes out to everybody involved, the Japanese people, the athletes that have been prepping; this is not the kind of Olympics that you really want to be hosting.
EU likely to declare Belarus airspace unsafe, wider response to follow
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, discusses Belarus' diversion of a Ryanair flight and the European Union's response:
What is really happening with Belarus?
Well, what Lukashenko did yesterday was completely unacceptable. It was air piracy, state sponsored air piracy. And if this is allowed to stand, then no one can fly in the world. If dictators all over the world can pick aircraft out of the sky with a fighter or two in order to arrest people that they dislike, then the entire regime of commercial air transport in the world is gone.
What will the EU do?
I think you will see quite strong EU reaction coming out of the meeting that is ongoing as we speak in Brussels. I think you will see Belarus airspace declared unsafe. I think the Belarus state airline is, in terms of its link with Europe, is in for trouble. But then I think there has to be a wider response together with the Americans as well, in order to really see Belarus as a bandit within the entire system of international commercial air transportation and take measures accordingly.
Flight diversion in Belarus is a criminal act
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer, here. Happy Monday to you. And yeah, I'm not in New York. I'm in Nantucket for a few days, working as usual, but I'm willing, I'm trying will summer into being. And the shirt, if nothing else, is annoying and distracting people and making me feel more summery.
But not so summery in Belarus, my goodness. The Belarusian president, illegitimate ostensibly reelected through fake elections, President Alexander Lukashenko. You remember all of the demonstrations against him, the support for the opposition movement in Europe and the United States. Not so much in Russia and President Putin and kind of petered out and police repression and he gets to still run the country, Mr. Lukashenko. And now, has engaged in what European leaders are calling state terrorism. Certainly, a hijacking, a level of piracy, with a Ryanair plane, that's an Ireland flagged carrier, going from Athens to Vilnius, two NATO allies, two European union members, through Belarusian airspace. And the Belarusians force the plane down to Minsk because a passenger on the plane is a Belarusian opposition journalist, and they have wanted him in jail. He's been a thorn for the Belarusian government and the president.
This is a shocking breach of international law and will lead to some consequences. But let's first just talk about what happened. There were apparently a few members of intelligence, Belarusian intelligence, a couple Russian citizens as well. We don't know whether it was Belarusian intelligence, KGB types on with Russian passports or whether Russia was involved itself in supporting the Belarusian operation. But while the airplane was still in Belarusian space, the Belarusian intel on the plane got into a fight with the crew, said that there was a bomb threat, an improvised explosive device on the plane. The pilots put out an SOS to the Belarusian government. Belarus scrambled a fighter jet. Said that the closest airport was Minsk. That's not actually true. It was Vilnius at that point. And forced the plane down. And all of the passengers, some American nationals, mostly European nationals, probably pretty petrified through all of this. But this journalist, Belarusian journalist, and his girlfriend who is a Russian citizen, also involved in this Telegram website that they'd set up, very significant, to the extent that there's any opposition left in Belarus. They were two of the more important players. Taken off the plane. In custody, presently. Certainly facing many years in jail. The Belarusian government did a perfunctory check for bombs. Didn't find any, and they obviously weren't going to, and then the Ryanair plane was allowed to proceed.
Again, this is behavior to rogue state. It's criminal state action. Clearly needs to be some level of retaliation against Belarus. It's going to be hard to make that happen. We've seen all sorts of European political condemnation and American condemnation from Secretary of State Tony Blinken, but I don't think much is going to happen. You can imagine that there will be no more overflight for some of the regional planes over Belarus, but for major international carriers, especially that already avoid Ukraine for security concerns, it would be costly. Not clear to me that's going to happen. You could stop the Belarusian flag carrier from flying into European capitals. Maybe they'll do that. There could be additional sanctions, including sectorial sanctions placed against Belarus, but that requires unanimous EU consent. And especially given the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, who is quite supportive of the Belarusians and the Russians, unlikely they would support anything significant or meaningful that would really hurt Belarus.
Meanwhile, the United States, you've seen there's been at least an effort to try to normalize Russia relations, backing away from direct sanctions on Nord Stream 2, a reasonably productive and constructive meeting between Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov from Russia last week in Reykjavik. Much different than what we saw in Anchorage between the Americans and the Chinese, and the Biden administration seen as comparatively soft and risk averse in terms of calling for ceasefire and putting pressure on the sides in Israel, Hamas/Gaza fighting that ended a week ago.
In other words, what I think is most likely to happen is the Belarusian government gets away with this. They have their opposition member in jail, and who knows if they give them a death sentence or not. They continue to run their government with impunity. The Americans and the Europeans are seen as somewhat feckless and incapable in foreign policy, more divisions. And those that are willing to take risks, increasingly get away with them. It is not what you want to see. And certainly, a very disturbing moment in Europe for, I mean, those that were believing that the trouble being caused by the Russians was really only in Ukraine and Belarus itself, not something that could affect the Europeans more directly, especially as you see so many European governments more willing to trade with the Russians, engage in investment and tourism and the rest. This will have a somewhat chilling effect. But in reality, it will be sort of a collective shrug and let's move on.
You'll see some responses in social media, from trolls, either hailing from or supported by the Belarusian regime or the Russian government, Russian state media. Russian state media has been very, very supportive of the Lukashenko illegal action and they won't respond on, on what Lukashenko is doing. They'll instead say, "Well, what about when the Americans shot down the Iranian civilian airliner?" Or a more recently, "What about when the Americans worked with the Europeans to ground President Evo Morales's plane on suspicion that Edward Snowden was being transported by him." And I am certainly not a person who is trying to legitimize historic and illegal actions by the United States or other countries around the world. The United States is the most powerful democracy in the world. It is not the most legitimate. Let's be clear. It doesn't support human rights to the extent that the Canadians do or the Germans do or other countries. But that has absolutely nothing to do with the behavior of Belarus over the weekend. And you have to call that out. And whataboutism being the refuge of some of the most polarized and dishonest people on the web. And so we'll do our best to continue to call those out, while being honest about ourselves as well.
But this is clearly a criminal act by an illegitimate Belarusian regime. It should not be tolerated. It likely mostly will be tolerated if we leave the diplomatic rhetoric away. And that of course, describes so well the GZERO world, that we've been talking about for quite a while now here, and is increasingly a real challenge for the proper functioning of an international system.
So that's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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