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FILE PHOTO: Chadian interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby speaks during the launch of his presidential campaign ahead of the May elections in N'Djamena, Chad April 14, 2024.
Chadians are voting, but don’t expect change
Chad is the first of the coup-ridden Sahel states to move toward democracy. Well, inch toward democracy.
The current frontrunner is Gen. Mahamat Déby, who has been ruling in an interim capacity since his father, former President Idriss Déby, died while fighting rebels in 2021. The elder Déby led a coup in Chad in 1990 and ruled for three decades. His death opened the possibility of a new era in Chadian politics, with the younger Déby promising to hold elections – in which he wouldn’t run – within 18 months.
Three years later, those elections are finally here, and Déby is running after all, following a deadly crackdown on opponents in 2022 that sent many of his rivals into exile. Leading opposition figure Yaya Dillowas killed under murky circumstances in February. Voters told the BBC they had little confidence the election would be conducted fairly.
But don’t expect Washington or Paris to make too big a fuss over janky polls. Unlike the military regimes in Mali and Niger, which have kicked out Western powers, Chad has close relations with France and cooperates with the US military. Thethreat of extremist groups in the region means the great powers’ primary objective is keeping relations stable, though Déby has also been flirting with Moscow in recent months.
A boy holds a sign to protest against, what a teacher, local councilor and parents said, the kidnapping of hundreds school pupils by gunmen after the Friday prayer, in Kaduna, Nigeria March 8, 2024.
Hundreds of children kidnapped by extremists in Nigeria
Over 300 children have been abducted at gunpoint in northern Nigeria in recent days. On Thursday, gunmen kidnapped at least 287 children from a school in Kaduna state, and another 15 pupils were taken on Saturday. Militants are suspected of kidnapping around 200 women and children from Borno state as well. No group has claimed responsibility, but the region is plagued by Islamic extremism.
Nigeria’s army is mounting an operation to locate and retrieve the victims, but locals fear their loved ones may never return. A decade after Boko Haram attacked and kidnapped 276 schoolgirls sitting their physics exams in Chibok, 100 remain missing, and over 1,400 children have been abducted since then.
Why schoolchildren? Boko Haram, the most menacing terrorist group in the region, targets Western-style schools, which they see as contrary to their radical Islamist beliefs, and often holds survivors for years, ending their education. Female survivors recount being repeatedly raped by militants they were forced to marry, and many fell pregnant. Copycat terrorists now also target schools to extract ransoms from families.
What we’re watching: President Bola Tinubu has sworn to rescue the children, and Nigeria’s army is the best in the region — but the local governor said there weren’t enough boots on the ground. Similar violence from Islamist extremists has driven coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which Nigeria and the regional bloc ECOWAS have struggled to contain.Thousands of Nigeriens gather in front of the French army headquarter, in support of the putschist soldiers and to demand the French army to leave, in Niamey, Niger.
Niger junta calls out France
The West African nation of Niger has accused former colonial power France of plotting military intervention to reinstate the government of ousted leader Mohamed Bazoum, who was removed from power in a military coup on June 26.
In a statement on national television, a spokesman for the ruling junta, Colonel Amadou Abdramane, claimed that France was deploying forces to other West African countries as “part of preparations for an aggression against Niger” and that military cargo aircraft were unloading supplies and equipment in Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Benin.
Paris, for its part, did not respond to claims that it had deployed troops elsewhere in the region but said it backed the position of ECOWAS, an economic bloc of West African states, that has threatened to use force to reinstate Niger’s ousted leader, elected in the country's first free polls in 2021.
The coup has galvanized anti-French sentiment in Niger, and the junta has demanded France withdraw the 1,500 soldiers it maintains in the country. The United States, meanwhile, also has about 1,100 soldiers in Niger and has begun to relocate its troops “as a precaution” from Niamey to the central city of Agadez.
Both France and the US maintained a military presence as a bulwark against Islamic insurgents, who have terrorized other nations in the Sahel region, and there’s growing concern that withdrawal of Western forces could create a power vacuum Islamists would rush to fill. What's more, the Russian mercenary group known as Wagner is also looking to gain more of a foothold in Niger and other West African states.
For more on the Wagner Group's aims in Africa, see our explainer here.
The last French convoy from Operation Barkhane, prepares to leave Gossi, Mali.
The UN’s dangerous withdrawal from Mali
The UN this week laid out a timeline for withdrawing peacekeeping troops from the West African state of Mali – a mission that UN chief António Guterres has called “unprecedented” because of the vast logistical and security challenges.
Roughly 13,000 UN peacekeepers and police – and 1,786 civilian staff – will be out of the country by Dec. 31, with their infrastructure handed over to Mali’s military government. The withdrawal of UN forces, who’ve been in the country for a decade, is a huge development in a state long plagued by ethnic strife, poverty, and Islamic insurgents.
Some quick background. The landlocked Sahelian country has been grappling with relentless violence since a military coup in 2012, which gave an opening to an expansive Islamic insurgency that’s since spilled over into neighboring countries.
Years of instability have given rise to multiple military coups since then, most recently in 2021. Last year, that junta expelled French soldiers deployed there to help quash jihadist violence. And most recently in June, Mali’s junta leaders – who have close ties to Russia’s Wagner Group, whose troops they invited to help keep things “under control” – ordered UN peacekeepers to leave.
The withdrawal is now a massive operation for the UN, which will try to evacuate troops and equipment from a hostile environment overrun by rival armed groups and terror cells. (Consider that the UN recently said that the Islamic State doubled the amount of territory it holds in less than a year.) Making matters worse, neighboring Niger, a transit country, recently underwent its own military coup and can’t be considered a safe passage.A supporter of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reacts as people gather after polling stations were closed in the presidential election in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
What We're Watching: Brazilian runoff, Burkina Faso coup 2.0, Ukraine's response to Russian annexations
Lula’s bittersweet first-round win
Left-wing former President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva won the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday but fell short of the outright majority needed to avoid an Oct. 30 runoff that might now be tighter than expected. With almost 97% of the ballots counted, Lula got 47.9% of the vote, 4.2 percentage points more than his nemesis: the far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. Although Lula is still favored to also win in the second round, the result is good news for Bolsonaro because he outperformed the polls, which had him trailing Lula by a wide margin and led many to believe his rival could win it all in the first round. Some experts think that Bolsonaro is consistently underestimated because many Brazilians are hesitant to admit they vote for him — a theory pollsters deny. Lula's narrower-than-expected victory might give Bolsonaro even more fodder to claim that the surveys are rigged against him. Brazil's president has spent months firing up his base with baseless doubts about the integrity of the election process, and no one would be surprised if he tries to pull a 6 de Janeiro if he loses the runoff.
Coups and counter-coups in Burkina Faso
Coups are always messy affairs, but the West African nation of Burkina Faso is taking it to a whole new level. Late on Friday, Col. Ibrahim Traoré announced the removal of Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Damiba — who ousted democratically elected President Roch Kaboré in January — for failing to defeat an Islamist insurgency. The next day, Traoré claimed Damiba was planning a counter-coup with help from former colonial power France. Pas moyen, says Paris, as protesters attacked French interests in the capital, Ouagadougou, before Damiba agreed to step down on Sunday. Meanwhile, Traoré's junta is reaching out to "new partners" to fight the jihadists — possibly code for Russian mercenaries employed by the notorious Wagner Group, already active in neighboring Mali. The Sahel remains a hotbed for Islamist insurgents despite almost a decade of French military presence, which has hurt France's reputation in many of these countries. A Russian-propagated conspiracy theory that the insecurity is a ruse by Paris to protect its interests is also fueling anti-French sentiment in the Sahel, where coups are making a comeback.
Ukraine won’t give up
Ukraine is claiming a strategic victory in one of its four regions recently annexed by Russia. Lyman, a logistical and railway base in the eastern Donetsk province, has been cleared of Russian forces, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin blasted Vladimir Putin’s recent nuclear threats, calling them “irresponsible” and “nuclear saber-rattling.” As for the Russian president and his recent land grab of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk, interesting times are ahead: after holding a ceremony to sign accession treaties, Moscow is expected to process the documents through its parliament, after which Russia will consider the annexations complete. Next up? Russian laws and prosecutors would be imposed on the regions; militias fighting for Russia in Donetsk and Luhansk would be incorporated formally into the Russian military; the Russian ruble would be made the only legal currency; and after an oath of loyalty, residents would officially become Russian citizens. Meanwhile, the leaders of nine NATO countries issued a joint statement on Sunday condemning Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories and pushing NATO to increase military assistance to Kyiv.
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US Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) during a Jan. 6 committee hearing.
What We're Watching: The outgoing Liz Cheney, trouble in Kosovo, France out of Mali
Liz Cheney’s next move
Liz Cheney, a three-term Republican US congresswoman from Wyoming, suffered a stinging defeat Tuesday night at the hands of well-funded primary opponent Harriet Hageman, enthusiastically backed by former president Donald Trump. Sarah Palin — the former vice presidential candidate and governor, also supported by Trump — won the Alaska primary to run for Congress. Cheney’s defeat marks a remarkable political fall for a nationally known conservative politician who is the daughter of former VP Dick Cheney, the previous generation of Republicans’ best-known Washington powerbroker. Her political future and her potential impact on American politics will be defined by her central role on the congressional committee investigating the riot at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and Trump’s role in it. Trump, according to Cheney, is “guilty of the most serious dereliction of duty of any president in our nation’s history.” Cheney raised some $13 million for her now-failed House campaign. She can still spend that money on a future race. Next up: speculation that Cheney will run for president in 2024 in a campaign defined by opposition to Trump, who is still the Republican presidential frontrunner.
NATO tries to calm Balkan tensions
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will meet Wednesday (separately) with Serbia's President Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti for EU talks in Brussels to try to avoid a new conflict in the Balkans. Two weeks ago, mass protests erupted across Kosovo after local ethnic Serbs were told they'd be forced to replace their Serbian-issued IDs and license plates with new documents and tags issued by Pristina, Kosovo’s government. Implementation of the law was then delayed by a month, but the announcement had already kick-started tensions in Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008 following a bloody war in the late 1990s. Tens of thousands of ethnic Serbs who live in Kosovo refuse to recognize the country, which Serbia still claims as its province. With the alliance now preoccupied with Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATO is especially on edge over the risk of new fighting in the Balkans, where the organization’s peacekeepers have been deployed since 1999. Kurti says there’s a connection between the two conflicts. He claims Vladimir Putin is egging on the pro-Moscow Vučić to spread what Putin sees as Russia's war with NATO to other parts of Europe — a charge which Vučić has denied. Vučić and Kurti are expected to hold a rare face-to-face meeting on Thursday.
Au revoir, Mali
The last French troops left Mali on Monday, ending nine years of French military presence in this country in the Sahel region of West Africa. Paris decided to withdraw in February, a year and a half after Mali’s military took over in consecutive coups in 2020 and 2021. Relations with the new government tanked after French President Emmanuel Macron demanded a swift return to democracy. France deployed forces in Mali in 2013 at Bamako's request to help fight jihadists allied with Tuareg rebels, but frustrated locals came to view the French as ineffective and unwanted. In addition, Mali's ruling junta has lately warmed toward Russia, which has deployed mercenaries from the shadowy Wagner Group to help local forces beat back the Islamist insurgency. So far, the main result has been controversy: human rights groups accuse Mali's military and the Russian mercs of carrying out civilian massacres, and French air strikes of targeting civilians. Meanwhile, the 2,500-strong French contingent in the Sahel has shifted its hub to neighboring Niger and will coordinate from there its troops in Chad and Burkina Faso as part of its wider mission to defeat jihadism in one of sub-Saharan Africa's most conflict-ridden regions.Junta announces on TV it has taken power in Burkina Faso.
West Africa needs a fresh approach to democracy
A recent string of coups in West Africa has sent a troubling sign about the health of democracy in the region. Can anything be done to reduce the likelihood of future military takeovers? According to Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, the situation requires new approaches to governance and institution-building. We sat down with Amaka to learn more about her views.
Why so many coups?
A lack of state capacity to protect citizens and provide them with services is the main factor. Other problems such as the Islamist insurgency in the Sahel have also contributed — especially in Burkina Faso and Mali — but they are symptoms of this deeper issue, not its cause. National governments in Africa are relatively weak and have limited clout outside of capitals and major cities, constraining their ability to serve their citizens. This makes it difficult for the state to fulfill its end of social contracts, undermining its legitimacy. The international response to the coups, which has typically taken the form of calls for fresh elections and a quick return to flawed constitutional orders, does not address this underlying weakness. Elections alone do not guarantee a strong state. On the contrary, holding elections without supporting the development of a coherent national identity and competent bureaucracy increases the likelihood of future military interventions.
So, what should the international community be doing?
The main regional body, the Economic Community of West African States, has traditionally emphasized maintaining the appearance of democracy and ignored broader governance problems. For instance, it was silent when former President Alpha Condé controversially amended Guinea’s constitution in 2020 to secure a third term despite nationwide protests against his plans. But when a military junta seized power in September 2021, ECOWAS was quick to impose sanctions. This apparent lack of interest in checking misconduct if states regularly hold elections feeds into perceptions among ordinary citizens that the regional body and its allies are part of the problem, hurting its credibility as an impartial actor.
If ECOWAS really wants to deter future coups, it should move more quickly to punish leaders who subvert constitutional order — whether or not that is by a military takeover. But punishment must not come in the form of broad sanctions that ultimately hurt citizens more than the erring political or military leaders, because the latter have access to state funds.
ECOWAS should also consider leading a more coordinated response to the problems of insecurity across the Sahel. Closer collaboration among intelligence and security forces across the region could help strengthen governments’ abilities to assure the safety of their citizens, which would in turn boost perceptions of state legitimacy.
What sort of political changes would help?
Contemporary political systems in West Africa often strive to meet Western models of governance without adequate consideration of domestic peculiarities and local customs. In part as a result, they have failed to adequately support the development of the state. African intellectuals must now dig deeper to craft governance models that are more suited to domestic realities. That means prioritizing the well-being and dignity of citizens, while emphasizing African values such as freedom of speech and association, diversity, and inclusion. It also means focusing less on copying processes and customs that formed in advanced democracies following centuries of political settlement there and spending more time figuring out how to formalize local structures of power like traditional and religious leadership — something Botswana has done successfully with its House of Chiefs. Countries should also make plans to improve the quality and reach of local governance a priority. That could mean barring individuals from seeking national office until they have had experience in local government, something that would both mitigate the problem of vast ungoverned spaces in many African countries and prepare a class of future national leaders with experience dealing with policy challenges at the local level.
What about socio-cultural changes?
The arbitrary nature of African state formation by colonial powers created countries with high levels of ethnic tensions. Consequently, ethnic loyalties often take precedence to national identities. To bolster state legitimacy, governments should build a clear and dominant messaging campaign around a national purpose to drive broad acceptance of a common set of organizing principles. This, if successful, could form the basis of a social contract that clearly defines the relationship between citizens and the state.
Putting an end to a culture of impunity in government and among elites is another important step. A zero-tolerance approach to corruption or other forms of wrongdoing, especially among political appointees, is necessary to build trust in national institutions. Finally, encouraging a culture of transparency in government based on timely, aggressive communication of government actions and priorities would encourage participation in the political process by average citizens.
Other pressing issues to discuss in Munich
Much of the media attention on the Munich Security Conference will focus, understandably, on the Russia-Ukraine standoff. But other important security questions will be discussed. Here are three of the most important.
The Balkans. Bosnia now faces its most worrisome threat since the end of the Yugoslav civil war in 1995. To keep warring factions apart, the peace agreement ending that war created a special enclave within Bosnia for ethnic Serbs. The leader of that enclave, Milorad Dodik, has threatened secession over a new law banning the denial of the genocide that Serbs inflicted on Bosnian Muslims during that conflict. A breakup of Bosnia could trigger a new war.
The Caucasus. Ukraine is not the only former Soviet Republic weighing the costs of war. Armenia and Azerbaijan have long been locked in a struggle over control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave inside Azerbaijan that’s populated mainly by ethnic Armenians. In 2020, the frozen conflict turned hot, with Turkey and Russia becoming directly involved when hostilities erupted. Following major gains for Azerbaijan, the guns have gone silent, but a ceasefire has not brought confidence that peace can be kept, and the status of prisoners is making its way through international courts.
The Sahel. In some West African countries, the inability of governments to respond effectively to jihadist emergencies has frustrated both military leaders and civilians caught in the crossfire. One result of this instability is a series of recent coups that have toppled governments across the region. France, the former colonial power, has long been a major player in the Sahel. As part of a plan called Operation Barkhane, French troops have tried to lead a regional effort to quell the insurgency, but lack of success has left West Africans angry at Paris and French voters unhappy. As a result, France has pulled back, leaving the EU to debate how to manage a problem that is destabilizing an entire region – with blowback for European security.