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South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, left, and Riek Machar, shake hands after a meeting in which they reached a deal to form a long-delayed unity government in Juba, South Sudan back in December 2019. How times have changed.
South Sudan on brink of civil war as senior officials’ arrests inflame ethnic tensions
Both Machar and Chol are members of the Nuer ethnic group, the country’s second-largest demographic after the majority Dinka. The crackdown by President Salva Kiir – an ethnic Dinka whose long-standing rivalry with Machar exploded into conflict in the past – came one day after the White Army, a loosely organized militia made up of members of the vice president’s Nuer minority, seized control over Nasir, a major town in South Sudan’s northeasternmost Upper Nile State, from the country’s military. Machar supported the White Army during the war.
As part of the 2018 peace deal that ended the civil war, Kiir and Machar agreed to unify disparate ethnic militias into one national army in 2022. But negotiations stalled last year.
In early February, Kiir’s government unilaterally sacked Machar’s allies, including the health minister, without consulting the vice president as required under the peace pact. Days later, national troops loyal to Kiir attacked civilians in a crowded market in Nasir during a meeting with the local United Nations mission.
In response to what was just the latest example of UN-documented abuses of civilians by the military, armed youths killed at least four soldiers. A week later, the military launched airstrikes on positions held by militants loyal to Machar.
Dashed hopes? The latest escalation comes just two months after South Sudan’s oil production began again, bringing much-needed revenues to one of the world’s poorest countries.
File Photo: South Sudan's President Salva Kiir Mayardit attends the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) 42nd Extraordinary Session, at the State House in Entebbe, Uganda January 18, 2024.
As oil stops flowing, South Sudan risks crisis
South Sudan’s main oil export pipeline has been caught in the crossfire of the brutal civil war ripping across its northern neighbor, threatening the country’s economy and power structure. The fighting means engineers can’t access the pipeline to repair damage, so South Sudan declared “force majeure” earlier this month, essentially absolving it of certain contractual obligations.
South Sudan is the least developed country in the world after Somalia, according to the UN’s Human Development Index, and some 90% of the country’s revenue comes from oil exports. Between two thirds and three quarters of its exports pass through Sudan, from which South Sudan broke away in 2011.
But very little of that revenue benefits ordinary citizens, as it is largely directed into “special projects” overseen by President Salva Kiir, who has been accused of corruptly diverting the funds. Experts told Al-Jazeera that Kiir uses the funds to pay off a tiny elite, who in turn keep him in power.
With the oil taps shut for the foreseeable future, South Sudan will likely face a currency depreciation, worsening the already grim economic situation. Without money to pay off elites, Kiir could also face a power struggle, particularly with (admittedly dubious) elections expected in December. Juba may not even have the cash to hold sham contests, which could spark unrest.