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Finland's PM Sanna Marin at news conference in Stockholm, Sweden, February 2, 2023.
Finland’s next step
This is a big moment for Finland. For decades, its leaders tried to safeguard its security by remaining officially neutral in conflicts between giant neighbor Russia and the West. A clear majority of Finns considered that the more prudent choice. Since the end of the Cold War, Finland has drawn closer to NATO but remained outside the alliance to avoid provoking the Kremlin.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and Finnish minds quickly changed. Polls say nearly 80% of Finns support full NATO membership, and the alliance is eager to welcome a valuable new partner.
Finland’s application cleared its one remaining hurdle on Thursday as lawmakers in Turkey, the last NATO member needed to make it official, approved Finland’s bid. Nothing left now but paperwork.
And this Sunday, voters in Finland will choose the party and prime minister who will lead the nation in this historic step. At stake are all 200 seats in Finland’s parliament, which are now divided among nine different parties.
Current Prime Minister Sanna Marin hopes her center-left Social Democrats will win enough seats to lead the next government, allowing her to finish the NATO process she pushed into motion last year. Polls suggest the race will be close because the center-right National Coalition Party and the far-right Finns Party both appear strong.
If the election becomes a referendum on personal attitudes toward Marin, her party has a good shot. A recent poll shows that nearly two-thirds of Finnish voters say she’s done a solid job leading the country through the pandemic and the crisis created by Russia’s war.
Marin’s party, however, is less popular than its leader, and the nativist Finns Party has seen its popularity surge. Led by Riikka Purra, another of the country’s rising female politicians, the Finns are known mainly for their pledge to end all migration into Finland from outside the European Union. The center-right National Coalition is led by Petteri Orpo, the only man to lead one of the country’s leading parties.
Because it’s so popular in Finland, NATO membership has figured only indirectly in the election campaign. Orpo says it’s irresponsible for Marin to mull the provision of fighter jets to Ukraine, for example. Instead, voter perceptions of Finland’s high-and-rising cost of living, the importance of the government balancing its books, and the future of immigration policy will decide which party is best positioned to lead a coalition government. (No individual party is likely to win more than 20-25% of seats. Post-election bargaining over partnerships will take time.)
But pocketbook issues aside, Finland’s next prime minister will lead a NATO country with a Russian border that’s as long (more than 800 miles) as those of all other NATO countries put together. Moscow is very likely to reinforce its military presence – and make occasional mischief – along that long frontier.
Across the line, Finland has the largest and best-equipped artillery forces in Western Europe, according to the Wilson Center, a US think tank, as well as a conscription system that could mobilize 280,000 soldiers with hundreds of thousands more in reserve. This is a force NATO is glad to welcome.
In short, on Sunday, Finnish voters may focus mainly on their economic future, but the government they elect will face security choices and risks that no Finnish prime minister has ever faced.
What We're Watching: Khan charged, Petro the peacemaker, Finland's partying PM, Russia-Ukraine latest
Former Pakistani PM charged under terror act
A Pakistani judge charged Monday former ousted PM Imran Khan with violating the anti-terror act for threatening judicial officers in a speech. Khan has been granted bail, but he could face several years in prison if he's convicted of the terror charge. Since he was removed in a no-confidence vote in April, the former PM has been touring the country, leading huge rallies trying to pressure the government into calling a snap election. Khan is plotting his comeback boosted by his resurgent popularity, which helped his party win a recent election in Punjab, the country's most populous province. The turmoil comes at the worst possible time for Pakistan, embroiled in a severe economic crisis: poor Pakistanis are suffering the most from double-digit inflation, and the country is on the brink of default on its sovereign debt. Khan's supporters have warned they'll march on Islamabad if he's arrested, so keep an eye out for Thursday, when the former PM is scheduled to appear before the judge. Meanwhile, he's been banned from speaking in public and his speeches removed from YouTube.
Petro’s ELN olive branch
Delivering on his campaign promise to bring "total peace" to Colombia, newly minted President Gustavo Petro has suspended arrest warrants and extradition requests for National Liberation Army members in order to restart peace talks with the Marxist armed group, at war with the government since 1964. Petro says that the two sides will begin where they left off in 2019, when the previous government called off the talks in Cuba after the ELN killed 21 police cadets in a bombing in Bogotá. Previous efforts to end decades of violence have failed due to internal divisions within the group, yet the leftist Petro — himself a former member of the leftist M-19 guerrillas — believes he has an opening because the ELN responded well to his election. Still, most of the group’s political leaders have been in their Cuban exile for decades, and it’s unclear if they carry much sway with younger ELN fighters in the countryside.
Can a prime minister party like a rockstar?
Finnish PM Sanna Marin has come under a political firestorm over a leaked video of her partying with celebrities, sparking a debate in the famously egalitarian Nordic country. For her supporters, she has every right to have a good time with her friends when she's not on the job, and there would be no scandal if Marin were not a young woman. But her critics say that reveling is inappropriate for a PM — especially of a country that wants to join NATO because it feels threatened by Russia. Interestingly, the clip surfaced online Wednesday, the same day Finland announced it would limit to 500 the daily number of Russian tourist visas amid a recent surge in arrivals. Marin — who's gotten flak in the past for attending rock festivals or going late-night clubbing without her phone — defended herself from the backlash. The world's second-youngest national leader at 34 — only Chilean President Gabriel Boric is now her junior — has taken a drug test to prove she didn't do anything illegal.