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The future of space: congested and contested
Listen: Space might be a big place but the United Nations regards it as ‘congested, contested and competitive’.
This latest episode of Next Giant Leap, a podcast produced by GZERO Media in partnership with the space company MDA Space, explores the threats and tensions as space becomes busier and of greater strategic importance for an increasing number of countries.
“We have to avoid, by all means, that it becomes a Wild West,” says Tanja Masson-Zwaan, a space law expert at Leiden University in the Netherlands. She adds, “We have regulations, laws and treaties that have been in place for the last fifty years, but we need more to govern this new frontier of space utilization, because the rules that we have are basic principles and do not go into the details.”
Satellites are now being deployed to Low Earth Orbit at a rate of thousands every year. This zone of space is already littered with old defunct satellites and the remains of discarded sections of rockets which have accumulated over more than five decades. The risk of collisions is increasing, raising fears of a runaway cascade of space debris.
Tests of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons have showered still more debris into Low Earth Orbit. Since 2007, China, the United States, India, and Russia have conducted ASAT tests. Last year the United States announced its own moratorium on ASAT tests and, through a United Nations resolution, it has called for other nations to follow suit. So far China, Russia, and India have not signed up. So is space set to become a new theater for conflict and weapons proliferation?
“Look at how satellites have become embedded in our way of life,” says Kevin Whale, senior director of defense strategy at MDA Space. “If we wreck space, it’s almost one step down from nuclear catastrophe”.
Within a few years, a new phase of the space race will begin. Both the United States and China will be competing to get people to the moon and exploit its resources, particularly water ice in craters at the lunar south pole.
According to Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, “The Outer Space Treaty says space is the province of all mankind, meaning it's open to usage really by everybody. On the other hand, the principles say we should avoid harmful interference. And so the question is, how do we go about balancing those two imperatives: open to everybody but avoid harmful interference?”
Tanja Masson-Zwaan
Tanja Masson-Zwaan
Deputy Director, International Institute of Air and Space Law, Leiden University
Dr. Tanja Masson-Zwaan is Assistant Professor and Deputy Director of the International Institute of Air and Space Law at Leiden University, and President Emerita of the International Institute of Space Law. She currently also serves as Vice President for Science and Academic Relations of the International Astronautical Federation. Tanja advises the Dutch Government and other institutions on space law issues and was co-founder of the Hague International Space Resources Governance Working Group. She teaches at universities worldwide and is Global Faculty at International Space University.
Scott Pace
Scott Pace
Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, George Washington University
Dr. Scott Pace is Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Director of the Space Policy Institute, Director of the Institute for International Science and Technology Policy and Director of the MA International Science and Technology Policy program at the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs. His research interests include civil, commercial, and national security space policy, and the management of technical innovation.
Between 2017 and 2020, Dr. Pace served in the White House as Deputy Assistant to the President and Executive Secretary of the National Space Council. He previously served as the Associate Administrator for Program Analysis and Evaluation at NASA from 2005 to 2008 and Deputy Chief of Staff for the NASA Administrator from 2002 to 2003. Prior to his work at NASA, he was the Assistant Director for Space and Aeronautics in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Kevin Whale Credit: MDA
Kevin Whale
Senior Director of Defense Strategy, MDA Space
Kevin Whale is the Senior Director of Defense Strategy at MDA Space. In collaboration with business area leaders and teams, Kevin leads the development, adaptation, and execution of MDA’s pan-corporation global defense marketplace strategy for business advancement.
Brigadier General (retired) Whale served in the Royal Canadian Air Force for 36 years achieving flight qualifications on Kiowa, Twin Huey, Griffon, and Apache helicopters delivering tactical aviation mobility, reconnaissance, and aerial firepower effects to Joint warfighters. In 2017 he transitioned to space capabilities force development, readiness, and operations leading the Canadian Armed Forces Joint Space program and then as an exchange officer with the US Space Force.
Kevin Fong. Credit: Anthony Cullen
Dr. Kevin Fong (host)
Professor, Department of Science, Technology, Education and Public Policy (STEaPP) at University College London
Kevin Fong is a senior emergency care physician and anesthesiologist in the UK’s National Health Service. He is also an expert in space medicine and has worked as a researcher in NASA’s human spaceflight program in Houston. He is also a broadcaster who has hosted many radio and television shows, and podcasts on space flight and exploration. They include the BBC hit podcast ‘13 Minutes to the Moon’.
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The satellite revolution in Low Earth Orbit
Listen: In the last twenty-five years, the number of active satellites orbiting the Earth has increased from about 500 to 8,000. “In the first quarter of this year, we deployed nearly 1,000”, says space industry analyst Carissa Bryce Christensen. She adds, “Instead of a smaller number of very large satellites mostly far away, we are seeing many, many small satellites very close in.”
The latest episode of Next Giant Leap, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and the Canadian space company MDA, explores the exponential increase in satellites that are being launched into Low Earth orbit (LEO). This is the zone of space between about 100 and 1200 miles above the Earth.
By the end of the decade, MDA’s Chief Executive Officer Mike Greenley predicts there will be tens of thousands of LEO satellites. Many of them will be the component parts of vast satellite constellations, such as the Starlink network, offering broadband internet. Others will be providing the services which the modern world has come to depend upon: GPS navigation, defense and security reconnaissance, weather forecasting, and remote environmental monitoring. For example, Earth Observation satellites are now the most important source of information on the pace and impacts of climate change.
Our satellite eyes in low Earth orbit have become extremely sensitive, according to Professor Martin Sweeting, founder of the UK company Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. Some of them are now able to resolve objects less than one foot in size from hundreds of miles above. Artificial intelligence is now being harnessed to process and interpret the vast amounts of data gathered by the new generation of satellites.
Carissa Bryce Christensen. Credit: BryceTech
Carissa Bryce Christensen
Founder and Chief Executive Officer, BryceTech
Carissa Bryce Christensen is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of BryceTech companies in the US and the UK. She previously co-founded defense company The Tauri Group and quantum computing software company QxBranch. Ms. Christensen is an internationally recognized expert on the satellite and space industry, known for rigorous analysis and innovative, data-driven strategy. She co-chairs the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Space, and chairs the US board of the UN-affiliated Space Generation Advisory Council.
Mike Greenley. Credit: MDA
Mike Greenley
Chief Executive Officer, MDA
Mike Greenley has been the Chief Executive Officer of MDA since 2018. Founded in 1969, MDA is an international space mission partner and a robotics, satellite systems and geointelligence pioneer. Mr. Greenley oversees more than 2,700 employees across Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. Mr. Greenley has over 25 years of experience in the defence and security business. Mr. Greenley is the Vice-Chair of Space Canada and recently served as the Vice-Chair of the Government of Canada’s Economic Strategy Table for Advanced Manufacturing.
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting
Founder and Executive Chairman, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting pioneered rapid-response, low-cost and highly capable small satellites, utilizing modern consumer electronics devices to change the economics of space. He is widely regarded internationally as the ‘father’ of small satellites which have changed the nature of the space industry. He is distinguished professor of space engineering at the UK’s University of Surrey. In 1985, he founded the university spin-off company, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd which has designed, built, launched and operated in orbit nano, micro and mini-satellites for communications & Earth observation, as well as navigation payloads for the European Galileo constellation. Sir Martin is Fellow of the UK Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering.
Kevin Fong. Credit: Anthony Cullen
Dr. Kevin Fong (host)
Professor, Department of Science, Technology, Education and Public Policy (STEaPP) at University College London
Kevin Fong is a senior emergency care physician and anesthesiologist in the UK’s National Health Service. He is also an expert in space medicine and has worked as a researcher in NASA’s human spaceflight program in Houston. He is also a broadcaster who has hosted many radio and television shows, and podcasts on space flight and exploration. They include the BBC hit podcast ‘13 Minutes to the Moon’.
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Introducing "Next Giant Leap," a podcast series about the business of space
The new Space Age is here, and it’s driving innovation and economic growth on Earth. Next Giant Leap is a four-part podcast series from GZERO Media brought to you by the Canadian space company MDA Space.
Today’s space race has an importance that extends far beyond the well-known billionaires making headlines. In 2024, a four-person crew of NASA’s Artemis II will return to the moon in the first human mission there in half a century. On Next Giant Leap, you’ll hear from one of the astronauts preparing to take that critical journey and why it matters. Our program also dives into the economics and geopolitics of space—from low Earth orbit satellites to the ways the business of space is transforming communication, defense, AI, and climate action.
Next Giant Leap is a must-listen for anyone fascinated by space exploration and the next phase of development in this fast-moving sector.
Is Musk hedging his bets on Ukraine?
Elon Musk’s Starlink is the most prominent of a new generation of low-Earth orbit satellite networks making a name for themselves this year by providing internet service in conflict zones and other geopolitical hotspots. Instead of using a handful of expensive-to-launch high-altitude satellites, these networks deploy thousands of cheaper low-orbit systems. This type of network may still be more expensive to use than terrestrial cables, but it allows operators to beam the internet into places with limited infrastructure on the ground to support it.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Scott Bade to explain how these networks are being used and what the implications are.
Where are these companies taking their services?
In Ukraine, earth imaging companies such as Maxar and Planet Labs have been taking detailed pictures of what’s happening on the ground. Some of that has been made available to the public — that’s how we saw the famous images of the Russian convoy stalled on a road leading into Kyiv, for example. But these companies are also feeding intelligence directly to the Ukrainian government, US authorities, and NATO.
Starlink, the satellite service of Musk’s SpaceX company, has played a more active role recently by helping Ukraine maintain internet connectivity since the Russian invasion. It has protected access to a uncensored internet in occupied areas, thwarting Russian disinformation efforts. Perhaps more importantly, Starlink has provided the Ukrainian military command with the means to communicate with its troops even behind enemy lines. This has led to more effective artillery targeting, for example.
The other place Starlink has been in the news is Iran after a Twitter user asked Musk to deploy Starlink over the Islamic Republic to keep Iranians online after mass protests prompted the government to restrict internet access. Musk responded by adding his voice to activists’ calls for an exemption to US sanctions for telecom companies, which the government granted. Musk has said Starlink is now active over Iran, but we don’t really have any evidence that it’s been used.
How big of a challenge do these services pose to authoritarian regimes?
Though they’ve proven effective at thwarting Russian efforts to control communications in a conflict zone, it will be more difficult for them to challenge authoritarian regimes on their home turf. Their main limitation is that they still require physical terminals on the ground. In Ukraine, Starlink is working in conjunction with the government, which is doing all it can to get the service into the country. In Iran, on the other hand, the regime is doing everything it can to keep the service out.
But if you can overcome that obstacle – somehow sneak terminals into the country, for example – satellite systems represent a potential threat to regimes that restrict access to the internet.
How have these regimes reacted so far?
Iran called the US’ decision to provide operating licenses for internet services a violation of its sovereignty. It blocked Starlink’s website and said it will not allow any terminals into the country.
A more serious risk comes from Russia and China, which are very wary of Starlink’s potential military uses. Russia has repeatedly threatened Starlink and recently tested an anti-satellite missile. And it has other ways to disrupt satellites. It launched a cyber operation against Viasat, another satellite network, right before it invaded Ukraine. Some voices in the Chinese military have also called for the development of anti-satellite capabilities that would allow it to attack Starlink.
The US and NATO have pointedly declined to clarify if satellites are covered by the alliance’s Article 5 collective defense clause. That ambiguity is likely enough to deter any attempt to shoot them down for now, but further cyberattacks wouldn’t be surprising.
How comfortable do these companies feel with their new geopolitical role?
Many Western satellite companies – and technology companies more broadly – have enthusiastically supported Ukraine in its struggle against Russia. SpaceX has played a particularly prominent role, and Musk has at times seemed too comfortable dabbling in geopolitics. He’s garnered some attention for tweeting out a peace proposal for Ukraine (which suspiciously resembled Putin’s) and a suggestion to resolve China-Taiwan tensions that was friendlier to China than to Taiwan.
Yet these and other actions have also raised suspicions that Musk is wary of angering Moscow and Beijing. In recent days, some Ukrainian officials have complained that Starlink wasn’t being activated quickly enough in recaptured areas, hindering the army’s advance. There was another report that Musk blocked the use of Starlink over Crimea because that could help trigger an escalation in the war. And Musk has publicly said that SpaceX can’t go on supporting the Ukrainians indefinitely without more US government support.
It’s obviously hard to know exactly what is going on for certain – there is a war raging – and Starlink is still in use by the Ukrainians. But Musk seems to be simultaneously embracing the potential to play a geopolitical role while also hedging his bets a bit. Russia has been threatening SpaceX, and China is a major market for Musk’s Tesla. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wanted to start finding ways to be less involved in Ukraine.
What does the US government think about the actions of these companies?
Until recently, SpaceX and satellite companies seemed fully aligned with the US government on the Ukraine conflict. Even when they were acting on their own volition in the context of the war, they were doing so with the blessing of Washington – in fact the United States Agency for International Development has paid for some of the Starlink service provided to Ukraine.
That may no longer be the case. SpaceX has appeared to make some recent decisions on coverage independently of the US government. It appears that the firm is now again on the same page with US and Ukrainian officials – Musk and the Ukrainian foreign minister have exchanged complimentary tweets – and Musk wouldn’t want to intentionally undercut US policy. But he should be careful in the future to avoid giving the impression of deference to Russia and China to avoid angering US officials.
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China sends satellites into space in first sea-based commercial launch
BEIJING (REUTERS) - China has successfully sent nine satellites into orbit in its first commercial launch of a rocket from a platform at sea, state media reported on Wednesday (Sept 16).
BRI partners to get customised weather satellite data
BEIJING • China will offer customised data services for disaster prevention through its Fengyun meteorological satellites for more countries along the Belt and Road, said a senior official of the China Meteorological Administration's National Satellite Meteorological Centre.
China to customise satellite data for countries participating in its Belt and Road Initiative
BEIJING (CHINA DAILY/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - China will offer customised data services for disaster prevention through its Fengyun meteorological satellites for more countries along the Belt and Road, said a senior official of the China Meteorological Administration's National Satellite Meteorological Centre.
Nasa slams India over orbital debris
WASHINGTON • The head of Nasa has branded India's destruction of one of its satellites a "terrible thing" that had created 400 pieces of orbital debris and led to new dangers for astronauts aboard the International Space Station.