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Trump’s inaction on wrongful deportation may spark constitutional crisis
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If the US won't work to return a wrongly deported man to El Salvador despite a Supreme Court ruling, are we headed towards a constitutional crisis?
It certainly appears that way, and I think this is the constitutional crisis that the Trump administration would love to have. Because wrongfully deporting someone without evidence who is in the country illegally and therefore guilty of a misdemeanor, but sending them to a max security prison, which the Supreme Court says you shouldn't do, but now is in another country. Very few Americans are sympathetic to the case of this person. And indeed, Trump won on the basis in part of being sick and tired of allowing illegal immigrants to spend enormous amounts of time in the United States without recourse.
So he's breaking the law here. He's flouting independent judiciary and their decision-making, but he's doing it on an issue that most Americans have no sympathy on the other side. So the Democrats would have to be very wary of making this a hill they want to die on, and Trump knows exactly what he's doing. It is pretty impressive playbook for undermining rule of law and checks and balances on an increasingly authoritarian leaning executive. That's where we are.
Trump claims China-Vietnam talks are intended to "screw" the US. Does this run the risk of pushing Vietnam to China?
Certainly, most Vietnamese now are more well-disposed towards China than the US. First time we've seen that since the war. It's not true across Southeast Asia. Philippines, about 80% still pro-US, not pro-China. But it is a problem, and Xi Jinping understands that. And that's why he went in and was received directly by the president as opposed to the prime minister last time who met him at the airport. 45 big deals that they're signing on trying to improve economic coordination. Clearly a bit of a surprise to Trump, just as the direct retaliation from the Chinese, even though the Americans warned them, "Negotiate, don't retaliate." But that's exactly what China did, and Trump frankly should have expected that was coming. Now he looks a little bit weaker in the way he's backing down and creating exemptions for a lot of people in this space.
Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's World Bank debt. Could this be a major turning point for Syria's future and its ties with regional allies?
It certainly helps. We've also seen the Qataris already say they're going to offer gas through Jordan into Syria. I think that this is all promising. The Saudis were never going to do that, provide any support as long as Assad was in place. Now they are. The Americans are pulling troops out, and Turkey is going to be the most important country on the ground. But economically, it's going to be the Gulf States, and that gives this new Syrian regime a better chance to succeed. Something we all clearly are rooting for in terms of one of the places that we'd like to see a little more stability from. Anyway, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Zelensky snubs China’s peace push, Trump vows to end war “very quickly” ›
- China’s vows to pump up its economy — with one eye on Trump’s tariffs ›
- El Salvador's president wins big. What does this mean for the country and its neighbors? ›
- El Salvador's Bukele refuses to return wrongly-deported Maryland man, and offers to jail US citizens too ›
President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, on March 19, 2025.
Ukraine talks continue in Saudi Arabia after Trump envoy praises Putin
While US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff predicted “real progress, particularly as it affects a Black Sea ceasefire on ships between both countries,” leading to a “full-on shooting ceasefire,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted him, telling Russian state TV on Sunday that “difficult negotiations” await and that “We are only at the beginning of this path.”
Witkoff was also criticized by Western experts for an interview with pro-Trump broadcaster Tucker Carlson that aired Friday, in which he dismissed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s proposed peacekeeping plan for Ukraine as “a posture and a pose” and repeated several Kremlin talking points, including that Ukraine is a “false country.” Witkoff also said that Russia’s control over five Ukrainian regions – of which he was only able to name two – should be internationally recognized and praised Vladimir Putin as “super smart,” adding, “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy.”President Donald Trump looks on as military strikes are launched against Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis over the group's attacks against Red Sea shipping, at an unspecified location in this handout image released March 15, 2025.
US strikes Houthi strongholds, seeks to keep shipping lanes open
The United States launched widespread strikes on the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen on Saturday, killing 53 people and injuring 98 as it targeted military sites and a power station in the rebel group’s southwest stronghold. The attacks were the largest US military operation since President Donald Trump returned to office.
“To Iran: Support for the Houthi terrorists must end IMMEDIATELY! Do NOT threaten the American People, their President, who has received one of the largest mandates in Presidential History, or Worldwide shipping lanes,” Trumpposted on social. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urged the US to halt the airstrikes, while Gen. Hossein Salami denied that Iran was involved in Houthi offensives.
The United States has been part of a Saudi-led coalition that has fought the Houthis since 2014, but tensions have been especially frayed ever since the Yemenite rebel group started ambushing Israeli ships that passed through the Red Sea shortly after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, disrupting a hefty portion of global trade. There has been calm in the region ever since Israel and Hamas brokered a ceasefire deal in January, but the Houthis on Tuesday said they would restart their guerilla campaign on the water.
Don’t expect a truce soon: Once the leader of the coalition against the Houthis, Saudi Arabia now seems to be on the sidelines, leaving the US to lead the fight against the Iran-aligned group — and the Trump administration has pledged to continue strikes over the next few days. The Houthi resistance has been stubborn for some time, and the militants have promised to retaliate, so the Americans might have their work cut out as they seek to maintain a vital shipping pipeline.
“A few days of strikes will probably not bring about an end to the Houthis’ attacks,” counterterrorism expert Thomas S. Warrickwrote. “Unless the Trump administration is prepared to go even further.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands as they make joint statements to the press at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem on Feb. 16, 2025.
Gaza: The battle of the plans
When it comes to the future of Gaza, the only thing regional players agree on is that they don’t agree. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports US President Donald Trump’s vision of an American-controlled “Riviera of the Middle East,” relocating approximately 2 million Palestinians to neighboring countries – a move widely criticized as ethnic cleansing. Egypt is formulating a reconstruction plan that would rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure, exclude Hamas from governance, and ensure Palestinians remain on their land. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is developing an alternative strategy, advocating for Gaza’s reconstruction, a two-state solution, and no displacement of residents.
Who’s talking to whom? US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Netanyahuon Sunday and declared that Hamas “cannot continue as a military or government force … they must be eliminated.” On Monday, the Israeli cabinet met to review “phase two” of the ceasefire with Hamas, and Defense Minister Israel Katz began the process of creating an agency to facilitate the “voluntary” relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. And where would they go? Katz said the Israeli military should prepare land, sea, and air exit options for Gazans to move to “any country willing to accept them.”
Also on Monday,Rubio met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. A statement issued afterward by the palace made no reference to Gaza, noting only that the two men “reviewed aspects of the bilateral relations between the two friendly countries and ways to enhance and develop them in various fields.”
What’s next? On Feb. 20, Saudi will host a meeting with Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, to discuss Egypt’s proposal – and a “representative of Palestine” could be invited as well. The meeting is a precursor to a larger regional summit on Feb. 27, which may now be delayed for “logistical reasons.”Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, right, and President Donald Trump's envoy Richard Grenell shake hands at the Miraflores Palace, in Caracas, Venezuela, on Jan. 31, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela releases Americans, Balochistan fighting kills Pakistani soldiers, Syrian leader visits Saudi Arabia, Queensland faces floods, Zelensky decries airstrikes, Groundhog sees shadow
6: On Friday, Venezuela released six detained Americans, sending them home with Richard Grenell, the US envoy for special missions, following his talks with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. President Donald Trump said Saturday that Venezuela had agreed to take back the Venezuelan migrants facing deportation from the US and to “supply the transportation.”
18: Pakistan said Saturday that 18 of its soldiers were killed while fighting separatist insurgents who had set up a roadblock on a key highway in the restive Balochistan region. Twenty-three rebels were also killed in the fighting, and the roadblock has been removed, according to security forces.
1: Syria’s newly named interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, on Sunday made his first international trip since leading his rebel group in the overthrow of former President Bashar Assad in December. Al-Sharaa landed in Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who pledged his support for Syria.
4.2: Northern Queensland, Australia, is facing its worst flooding in 60 years. One woman has died and thousands have fled their homes as 4.2 feet of rain fell on the region over the weekend. More rain was predicted for Monday.
1,400: Russia launched more than 1,400 airstrikes against Ukraine last week, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is appealing for more Western support. On Saturday, he accused Moscow of hitting its own civilians in the Kursk region.
6: If you’re tired of the cold weather, this is going to come as bad news: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Sunday, Groundhog Day, and predicted six more weeks of winter. Bundle up!Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman meets Syria's newly appointed Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, January 2, 2025.
Syria’s new leaders visit Saudi Arabia
The Saudis welcome a government in Syria that is no longer an Iranian ally and a transit route that allows Tehran to rearm Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon. The Saudis would also like to see an end to the smuggling into the kingdom of dangerous narcotics from Syria. For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, these are developments that can help stabilize the region after more than a year of expanding war and decades of a delicate balance between Iran and the Gulf Arab states.
The new leaders in Damascus hope the Saudis and other deep-pocketed Gulf Arab states will see the new Syria as a “big investment opportunity,” in the words of the country’s de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, until recently known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Rebuilding civil war-torn Syria and welcoming back large numbers of Syrian refugees from abroad will be an enormously expensive project, and the Gulf Arabs are by far the likeliest potential donors to see self-interest in major investments.
Palestinians carry an aid box distributed by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Deir Al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, November 4, 2024.
Gaza aid at lowest point in a year despite US ultimatum to Israel
Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he will nominate former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to serve as US ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is also an evangelical pastor and the first non-Jew to hold the position in 15 years. He has been a stalwart supporter of Israel’s right to defend itself and of its settlements in the West Bank throughout his career.
The announcement comes a month after the US gave Israel a 30-day ultimatum to boost humanitarian aid flows to Gaza or risk American military aid declining, a deadline that the UN says Israel has failed to meet. Instead, Gaza aid is at its lowest level in a year, according to the UN, and famine is imminent. Israel has also largely failed to comply with Washington’s other two demands: resuming access for commercial trucks and ending the isolation of the North.
Israel blames UN aid agencies for failing to distribute the aid, while the UN accuses the Israeli military of not ensuring safe conditions for distribution. The US State Department said that military aid will not be curtailed because Israel has made progress on its demands and is not in violation of US law.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmansaid during a meeting with leaders of Islamic nations on Monday that Israel is carrying out a “collective genocide” in Gaza. Although MBS and many of the leaders present have enabled severe human rights abuses of their own, his statement is likely in anticipation that the US will soon, either as a last-ditch triumph for Joe Biden or an early victory for Donald Trump, try to negotiate a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Statements like these bolster MBS’s credibility with Israel’s enemies in the region, while also gaining leverage that may translate to Israel making – potentially empty – promises to support future Palestinian statehood in exchange for normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia.
June 16, 2023 - Paris, France: Saudi Arabia s crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman arrives at the Elysee palace for his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Hard Numbers: Aramco invests, Japan frets, Perplexity gets popular — and sued, UK sentences man in deepfake case
25: When surveyed, only 25% of Japanese respondents said that AI makes them nervous — the lowest mark of any of the 32 countries that Ipsos polled recently. But the country has been very slow to adopt AI or lean fully into its research. Stanford’s count of the “foundation models” for generative AI found that 182 of them originated in the United States, while none originated in Japan. The country is open to AI, but its tech sector just isn’t diving in yet.
350 million: Perplexity is an ascendant AI search engine — it fielded 350 million user queries in September alone. That’s a big uptick considering users asked only 500 million questions in all of 2023. As it’s grown, the company has come under fire from news publishers. Dow Jones, which publishes the Wall Street Journal, sued Perplexity last week alleging copyright violations. In response, Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas said he won’t pay to license content from news publishers but is discussing a revenue-sharing agreement similar to how Spotify pays musical artists.
18: In a landmark court decision, a judge in the United Kingdom sentenced a 27-year-old man to 18 years in prison for using AI to create child sexual abuse material. The man pleaded guilty to using a US-based service called Daz 3D to transform real photos of children into explicit deepfakes in violation of British law.