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Palestinians walk in the rain at a makeshift camp in Gaza City, on Nov. 25, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump admin makes temp Gaza property plan, Taiwan to boost defenses, Tragic fire in Hong Kong, Brazil’s Lula leads in poll, Saudi opens door to liquor cabinet
20,000-25,000: As part of his vision for Gaza, US President Donald Trump is drawing on his background as a real estate guy, with plans to build a number of temporary residential compounds for Palestinians in eastern Gaza, each of which would house as many as 20,000-25,000 people. The aim is to entice Gazans sheltering elsewhere in the strip to move back to the area, which they were driven out of by the Israeli military. Officials say the first compound won’t be ready for months.
$40 billion: Taiwan will boost defense spending by $40 billion in order to face down the persistent threat from China, which considers the self-governing island part of its own territory. The US, which backs Taiwan, has called on Taiwan to fund more of its own military. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed Taiwan this week. Meanwhile, for more on the rising tension between China and Japan over Taiwan, see our recent report here.
13: At least 13 people have died after a fire tore through a group of apartment buildings in Hong Kong on Wednesday. Hundreds of firefighters are at the scene seeking to quench the blaze. The cause remains unclear, but the buildings were enveloped in bamboo scaffolding, which the government had started to phase out in March over safety concerns.
46%: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win in any plausible matchup in the 2027 presidential election, according to a new poll. In a face-to-face with São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, Lula would win 46%, while the man widely considered the right-wing heir to former President Jair Bolsonaro would win 39%. The jailed Bolsonaro remains the kingmaker of the Brazilian right.
2: Cheers to this, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will open two more liquor stores for foreigners, one each in Jeddah and Dhahran. Last year they opened one in the capital, Riyadh as part of a wider modernization drive that is meant to bring more foreign tourists and workers into the country. Name us a cocktail! The Jeddah Julip? The Dhahran Daiquiri? Let us know your proposal, we’ll publish the best ones next week.
Argentine President Javier Milei speaks during the America Business Forum at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, USA, on November 6, 2025.
Hard Numbers: US banks’ Argentina bailout plan falls through, Trump threatens Dem lawmakers, India is latest heist site, Saudi investment fund is stretched, & More
$20 billion: Argentine President Javier Milei had a fantastic midterm election last month, but the celebration might be coming to an abrupt end: A group of US banks shelved its $20-billion bailout plan for the South American nation, favoring instead a short-term loan package.
6: A group of six US Democratic lawmakers published a video telling military and intelligence officials that they must disobey illegal orders. The move irked President Donald Trump, who suggested that the move constituted, “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”
70 million: The Louvre wasn’t the only site of a successful heist in broad daylight this fall, as a group of men posing as Indian central bank officials robbed a vehicle that held 70 million rupees ($800,000) in the southern state of Karnataka on Wednesday afternoon, per police. Law enforcement is still searching for the culprits.
41: Relentless rains and flooding in central Vietnam have killed at least 41 people, left nine missing, submerged over 52,000 homes, and cut power to half a million households. Hard-hit cities like Hoi An and Nha Trang face evacuations, landslides, and infrastructure collapse as typhoons grow increasingly frequent.
10.5: The former leader of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party was sentenced to ten-and-a-half years in prison this morning for accepting pro-Russian bribes. Nathan Gill was paid thousands of pounds to deliver TV interviews in favor of an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reform UK has taken a more dovish position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than other parties in the United Kingdom.
$1 trillion: During his White House visit this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to increase his investment in US firms to nearly $1 trillion. There’s just one problem: Riyadh’s Public Investment Fund is running low on cash, according to a New York Times report.
UN Security Council members vote on a draft resolution to Authorize an International Stabilization Force in Gaza authored by the US at UN Headquarters in New York, NY on November 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: UN backs US plan for Gaza, Trump to sell fighter jets to Saudi, Zelensky seeks funds with money well running dry
UN Security council approves Trump plan for Gaza
The resolution lends international legitimacy to a multi-national peacekeeping force and US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Not everyone loves it. Russia and China abstained, saying the resolution gives too much leeway to the US to shape Gaza’s future. Israel, meanwhile, objected to language gesturing towards a possible future Palestinian state. Hamas rejected the resolution outright and said it refuses to disarm. That’s still the hard reality on the ground: how many countries, UN resolution or not, will be willing to send their troops into a firefight with Hamas?
Trump says he’ll sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia as crown prince arrives
Ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the White House today, Trump announced Monday that he would sell F-35 fighter planes to the Gulf state. If fully approved, Saudi Arabia would be only the second country in the Middle East – after Israel – to successfully purchase these jets. Several other deals are set to be announced, too, including on civilian nuclear infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and even hotels, bringing the two oil-producing states closer together. Do these deals remove the incentives for Saudi to join the Abraham Accords? Not necessarily – they still would love access to Israeli tech – but it does mean they’re in less of a rush.
Ukraine is on the hunt for more funds and peace talks
Ukraine desperately needs more funds, and Europe is at an impasse on how to refill its coffers. Belgium blocked a loan plan that would use the $160 billion of Russia’s central bank assets to fund Ukraine, fearing it could be on the hook if Russia demanded its money back or retaliated against Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository where the funds are held. While the EU is looking for ways to allay Brussels’s worries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is turning to Spain and Turkey for funds and peace deals: Madrid announced a $1.16-billion aid package after meeting with Zelensky, who is now heading to Turkey, where he will try to “reinvigorate” peace talks with Russia.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reacts next to US President Donald Trump during the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
The Saudi crown prince returns to Washington
For the first time in seven years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is returning to Washington, DC, this week. While crude oil has traditionally pulled the two countries close together, it is now the great power-chess game between the US and China that is making them join forces.
MBS, as the de-facto Saudi leader is known, and US President Donald Trump have much to discuss when it comes to peace in the Middle East. The chances of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel by joining the Abraham Accords are slim. Nonetheless, defense agreements will be on the table, as Saudi Arabia seeks to bolster its protections in what has been a tumultuous year in the region.
The US-Saudi relationship has come full circle since the crown prince’s last visit in 2018. Since then, there was the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi – reportedly sanctioned by the crown prince – at a Saudi consulate in Turkey, which created major tensions. Those were exacerbated after Riyadh got upset with Washington when it refused to respond to the 2019 Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities. Then, during the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden suggested Saudi Arabia should be a “pariah.” Biden then sought to ease tensions in 2022, as he wanted Riyadh to pump more oil to alleviate high inflation rates. And now the AI race between the US and China has pushed Riyadh and Washington closer together.
“[Khashoggi’s death] hung like a pall over MBS reputation in the United States,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO. “Time has worn away the sting a little bit.”
The Middle East has also changed dramatically over the past seven years. Israel was locked in a brutal war with Hamas for the past two years, with a fragile ceasefire keeping the peace for now. More Arab nations are concerned about the conflict spilling over, too, especially after Israel bombed Qatar in a failed bid to kill Hamas leaders. Meanwhile, the influence of Saudi’s top enemy, Iran, has diminished, as its proxies in the region – the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza – have all been hobbled or even removed.
“Iran is no longer the strategic threat that it was seven years ago,” Ibish said. “[But] there is still this need on the part of Saudi Arabia for American security guarantees.”
So what will Trump and bin Salman discuss? First and foremost for the crown prince will be defense. There are two aspects to this: firstly, Saudi wants a defense agreement akin to what the US signed with Qatar, ensuring that the US will defend the Gulf state in case of attack. Secondly, the Saudis want to buy F-35 planes from the US – Israel is the only Middle East country that has successfully negotiated and executed a purchase agreement of F-35s.
“The US public and US government and Trump have been a little bit more critical of Israel,” Alia Awadallah, who was a Pentagon official during Biden’s term in office, told GZERO, suggesting that the US may be willing to sell to a country other than Israel. “[Saudi Arabia] will be trying to assess whether it’s actually realistic to get that type of sale through both the White House, but also through Congress, which would have to approve it.”
The US is sure to bring up something that has layed tantalizingly out of reach: the Abraham Accords. Trump is reportedly still pressing MBS to recognize Israel and join the Accords, arguing that the peace he successfully brokered in Gaza should be enough to prompt Riyadh to do so. But the crown prince has repeatedly said that he wouldn’t do this until Israel recognizes a Palestinian state, so the chances of him signing the accords on this trip are close to null.
“At a minimum, this requires phase two of the Gaza ceasefire being implemented, and Israeli assurances regarding the Palestinian right of self determination,” said Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “And we’re not there yet.”
If there’s no agreement on the Accords, there’s likely to be more on artificial intelligence. It is this area – rather than oil – that is pushing the two countries closer together, per Maksad. Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May was all about AI, with Saudi firms pledging billions of dollars in investments. In return, Riyadh wants access to items like Nvidia’s AI chips for its data centers. Meanwhile the US wants to see those incoming investments, while ensuring that Saudi secures rights to critical minerals in Africa, grants US access to them, and blocks China from getting them. This trip will be a chance to firm up these AI ties.
“Although the headlines continue to be animated by the prospect of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia… that is the wrong lens to be looking at things,” said Maksad. “This [US-Saudi] relationship is increasingly shaped by great power competitions, particularly US-China dynamics, rather than anything specific to the region and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the inaugural session of the Shura Council in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on September 10, 2025.
Could Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords?
The vibes are good between the United States and Saudi Arabia right now.
Negotiations have advanced on a mutual defense pact, one that would involve military and intelligence cooperation. The two oil-producing nations agreed on scuttling a deal that would have introduced internationally-mandated emissions targets for shipping. There are discussions, even, of holding a National Football League game in Riyadh.
But how far can the two nations go together? Could Saudi Arabia go so far as to join the Abraham Accords, the US-brokered normalization of ties between Arab states and Israel?
As the ceasefire in Gaza holds – albeit tenuously – the United States is already eyeing its next Middle East mission: having Saudi Arabia join Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE as a signatory of the Accords and normalizing ties with Israel. This would authorize business relations, tourism between the two countries, and enable official diplomatic links. Riyadh has never recognized the Jewish state, and until three years ago, it wouldn’t even let commercial Israeli planes fly over its airspace. But its ever-closer relationship with Washington, as well as its thawing ties with Israel, suggest joining the Accords may be a real possibility.
How did the US and Saudi get so close? Saudi Arabia has been a major US partner in the Middle East ever since the Kingdom was founded in 1932. The relationship has largely centered on oil, with US firms helping the Saudi government explore the fossil fuel in the 1930s. More recently, it has shifted toward defense equipment.
There have been some major points of tension along the way, most notably from the 1973 oil embargo, the 9/11 attacks – 15 of the 19 hijackers that day were from from Saudi – the 2015 US-brokered nuclear deal with the Kingdom’s main regional rival Iran, and, most recently, when Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. A US report later found that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) greenlit the hit. During the 2020 US presidential campaign, former President Joe Biden suggested that Saudi should be a “pariah” state.
When US President Donald Trump returned to office, though, the tensions between the two countries dissipated. Just like in his first term, the US leader’s first major foreign visit of his second term was to the Gulf state, where he was greeted with a sea of opulent displays from his Saudi counterparts – rather different from Biden’s awkward fist-bump with MBS in 2022. The Crown Prince is set to pay a visit to Washington next month, too, his first since 2018.
Can the US transfer this goodwill to Saudi-Israel relations? The Kingdom has long said that it won’t normalize relations with Israel until the Jewish state recognizes a Palestinian state, a move that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unlikely to make.
Yet there are signs that the longstanding tensions between the two countries are easing. Just before the Israel-Hamas war began more than two years ago, MBS said his country was moving “closer” each day toward a deal with Israel. Though those negotiations stalled in the wake of Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, the two sides reportedly coordinated to fend off Iranian bombs that were sent toward Israel during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June.
“The Crown Prince has made a strategic decision to move in the direction of recognizing Israel,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO.
What’s more, the Saudis stand to benefit from normalizing ties with Israel, much as the current signatories of the Abraham Accords have. They would gain access to Israeli tech and security products, open links to Israeli investors and technology companies, and boost its tourism by opening its country up to Israeli visitors. And this isn’t to mention a preferable security agreement with the United States, which would likely be part of any peace deal with Israel.
Not so fast. There remain several risks for the Saudis in joining the Abraham Accords, per Ibish. For one thing, the Kingdom is a larger and more politically-complex state than the current signatories, making it harder to bring the various internal factions on board for a controversial deal with Israel. Further, the war in Gaza has heightened the Saudi public’s skepticism of Israel. Finally, Riyadh would risk its position as a leader of both the Arab and Muslim world if it normalized ties with the Jewish state, due to widespread opposition to such a move among the Arab public.
“You’ve got Saudi Arabia keenly protecting those interests,” said Ibish. “They would be compromised to some extent by recognition [of Israel].”
With Israel refusing to consider a two-state solution with the Palestinians, Ibish believes it’s unlikely that Saudi Arabia will normalize ties with the Jewish state. Nonetheless, Trump remains hopeful.
“I think that they’re going to all go in very soon,” the US leader told Fox News on Friday. “Wouldn’t it be nice?”
Trump's Middle East Love Triangle
President Trump has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu free rein on Gaza longer than many of us expected. But Israel is not America's only Middle East partner. Is Trump now willing to pressure Netanyahu to salvage and expand ties with his Gulf allies? Eurasia Group's Firas Maksad breaks it down.
Netanyahu's visit to the Oval Office last week and the major announcement of a Gaza Peace Plan is what stole all the media headlines. But for me, the biggest story was Trump's commitment to another Middle Eastern ally, and here's why. In September, Israel undertook an unprecedented strike against an Arab Gulf capital in Doha, Qatar trying to get at Hamas officials. It failed, and what he ended up doing is putting President Trump in a bind. Saudi Arabia was quick to react. It signed a mutual defense deal with the Pakistanis, effectively extending Pakistan's nuclear umbrella to the Arab Gulf. Egypt and Turkey also reacted very quickly, papering over past differences and launching joint naval exercises just off the Israeli coast in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Trump's ties to these Arab nations run deep. He chose Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as the first foreign destination for his visit, not only in the first term, but also more recently in his second term. During these trips, he signed billions of dollars worth of contracts in foreign investments, tech, defense, energy, and other fields. Up until this week, President Trump had actually done very little to rein in Israel. He's allowed it to operate freely, not only in Gaza, but also in Lebanon and Syria really culminating with that attack in Doha, Qatar. But he now understands that he also needs to manage relations with these critical Arab Gulf allies, otherwise, that will undermine the business deals and the security relationship that he has with that part of the world.
So will President Trump be able to maintain that critical balancing act between America's Arab allies and Israel on the one hand, or would it all come apart in the lead-up to the crucial visit of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House in November? We'll have to wait and see.
MBS headlines at the first ever Riyadh Comedy Festival!!!
Louis CK and Jimmy Carr can't even come close to this. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif embrace each other on the day they sign a defence agreement, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, September 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Saudi-Pakistan defense pact, Italy passes AI law, Kimmel removed following Trump admin pressure
Saudi Arabia signs defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan
Following years of negotiations, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan bolstered their long-standing security partnership by signing a mutual defense pact on Wednesday. It’s not clear whether the deal obliges Pakistan, which boasts the largest army in the Islamic world, to provide Riyadh with a nuclear umbrella. The announcement comes as Gulf States have become increasingly skeptical about whether they can rely on the US to protect them – Israel’s attempt to kill Hamas leaders in Qatar is a case in point. Riyadh reportedly didn’t inform Washington of the pact until after it was signed.
Italy passes first AI law
Italy has passed the EU’s first comprehensive AI law, imposing prison terms for harmful uses like deepfakes and requiring parental consent for children under 14 to access AI. The legislation, aligned with the EU AI Act, mandates transparency, human oversight, and stricter rules for sectors such as healthcare, education, and justice. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni calls the law a “human-centric” framework to protect rights, promote innovation, and ensure AI develops within ethical boundaries while combating fraud and misuse. It also allocates €1 billion to fund AI and cybersecurity ventures.