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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the inaugural session of the Shura Council in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on September 10, 2025.
Could Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords?
The vibes are good between the United States and Saudi Arabia right now.
Negotiations have advanced on a mutual defense pact, one that would involve military and intelligence cooperation. The two oil-producing nations agreed on scuttling a deal that would have introduced internationally-mandated emissions targets for shipping. There are discussions, even, of holding a National Football League game in Riyadh.
But how far can the two nations go together? Could Saudi Arabia go so far as to join the Abraham Accords, the US-brokered normalization of ties between Arab states and Israel?
As the ceasefire in Gaza holds – albeit tenuously – the United States is already eyeing its next Middle East mission: having Saudi Arabia join Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE as a signatory of the Accords and normalizing ties with Israel. This would authorize business relations, tourism between the two countries, and enable official diplomatic links. Riyadh has never recognized the Jewish state, and until three years ago, it wouldn’t even let commercial Israeli planes fly over its airspace. But its ever-closer relationship with Washington, as well as its thawing ties with Israel, suggest joining the Accords may be a real possibility.
How did the US and Saudi get so close? Saudi Arabia has been a major US partner in the Middle East ever since the Kingdom was founded in 1932. The relationship has largely centered on oil, with US firms helping the Saudi government explore the fossil fuel in the 1930s. More recently, it has shifted toward defense equipment.
There have been some major points of tension along the way, most notably from the 1973 oil embargo, the 9/11 attacks – 15 of the 19 hijackers that day were from from Saudi – the 2015 US-brokered nuclear deal with the Kingdom’s main regional rival Iran, and, most recently, when Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. A US report later found that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) greenlit the hit. During the 2020 US presidential campaign, former President Joe Biden suggested that Saudi should be a “pariah” state.
When US President Donald Trump returned to office, though, the tensions between the two countries dissipated. Just like in his first term, the US leader’s first major foreign visit of his second term was to the Gulf state, where he was greeted with a sea of opulent displays from his Saudi counterparts – rather different from Biden’s awkward fist-bump with MBS in 2022. The Crown Prince is set to pay a visit to Washington next month, too, his first since 2018.
Can the US transfer this goodwill to Saudi-Israel relations? The Kingdom has long said that it won’t normalize relations with Israel until the Jewish state recognizes a Palestinian state, a move that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unlikely to make.
Yet there are signs that the longstanding tensions between the two countries are easing. Just before the Israel-Hamas war began more than two years ago, MBS said his country was moving “closer” each day toward a deal with Israel. Though those negotiations stalled in the wake of Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, the two sides reportedly coordinated to fend off Iranian bombs that were sent toward Israel during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June.
“The Crown Prince has made a strategic decision to move in the direction of recognizing Israel,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO.
What’s more, the Saudis stand to benefit from normalizing ties with Israel, much as the current signatories of the Abraham Accords have. They would gain access to Israeli tech and security products, open links to Israeli investors and technology companies, and boost its tourism by opening its country up to Israeli visitors. And this isn’t to mention a preferable security agreement with the United States, which would likely be part of any peace deal with Israel.
Not so fast. There remain several risks for the Saudis in joining the Abraham Accords, per Ibish. For one thing, the Kingdom is a larger and more politically-complex state than the current signatories, making it harder to bring the various internal factions on board for a controversial deal with Israel. Further, the war in Gaza has heightened the Saudi public’s skepticism of Israel. Finally, Riyadh would risk its position as a leader of both the Arab and Muslim world if it normalized ties with the Jewish state, due to widespread opposition to such a move among the Arab public.
“You’ve got Saudi Arabia keenly protecting those interests,” said Ibish. “They would be compromised to some extent by recognition [of Israel].”
With Israel refusing to consider a two-state solution with the Palestinians, Ibish believes it’s unlikely that Saudi Arabia will normalize ties with the Jewish state. Nonetheless, Trump remains hopeful.
“I think that they’re going to all go in very soon,” the US leader told Fox News on Friday. “Wouldn’t it be nice?”
Trump's Middle East Love Triangle
President Trump has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu free rein on Gaza longer than many of us expected. But Israel is not America's only Middle East partner. Is Trump now willing to pressure Netanyahu to salvage and expand ties with his Gulf allies? Eurasia Group's Firas Maksad breaks it down.
Netanyahu's visit to the Oval Office last week and the major announcement of a Gaza Peace Plan is what stole all the media headlines. But for me, the biggest story was Trump's commitment to another Middle Eastern ally, and here's why. In September, Israel undertook an unprecedented strike against an Arab Gulf capital in Doha, Qatar trying to get at Hamas officials. It failed, and what he ended up doing is putting President Trump in a bind. Saudi Arabia was quick to react. It signed a mutual defense deal with the Pakistanis, effectively extending Pakistan's nuclear umbrella to the Arab Gulf. Egypt and Turkey also reacted very quickly, papering over past differences and launching joint naval exercises just off the Israeli coast in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Trump's ties to these Arab nations run deep. He chose Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as the first foreign destination for his visit, not only in the first term, but also more recently in his second term. During these trips, he signed billions of dollars worth of contracts in foreign investments, tech, defense, energy, and other fields. Up until this week, President Trump had actually done very little to rein in Israel. He's allowed it to operate freely, not only in Gaza, but also in Lebanon and Syria really culminating with that attack in Doha, Qatar. But he now understands that he also needs to manage relations with these critical Arab Gulf allies, otherwise, that will undermine the business deals and the security relationship that he has with that part of the world.
So will President Trump be able to maintain that critical balancing act between America's Arab allies and Israel on the one hand, or would it all come apart in the lead-up to the crucial visit of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House in November? We'll have to wait and see.
MBS headlines at the first ever Riyadh Comedy Festival!!!
Louis CK and Jimmy Carr can't even come close to this. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif embrace each other on the day they sign a defence agreement, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, September 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Saudi-Pakistan defense pact, Italy passes AI law, Kimmel removed following Trump admin pressure
Saudi Arabia signs defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan
Following years of negotiations, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan bolstered their long-standing security partnership by signing a mutual defense pact on Wednesday. It’s not clear whether the deal obliges Pakistan, which boasts the largest army in the Islamic world, to provide Riyadh with a nuclear umbrella. The announcement comes as Gulf States have become increasingly skeptical about whether they can rely on the US to protect them – Israel’s attempt to kill Hamas leaders in Qatar is a case in point. Riyadh reportedly didn’t inform Washington of the pact until after it was signed.
Italy passes first AI law
Italy has passed the EU’s first comprehensive AI law, imposing prison terms for harmful uses like deepfakes and requiring parental consent for children under 14 to access AI. The legislation, aligned with the EU AI Act, mandates transparency, human oversight, and stricter rules for sectors such as healthcare, education, and justice. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni calls the law a “human-centric” framework to protect rights, promote innovation, and ensure AI develops within ethical boundaries while combating fraud and misuse. It also allocates €1 billion to fund AI and cybersecurity ventures.
Jimmy Kimmel taken off air for Charlie Kirk comment
ABC has pulled Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night show “indefinitely” after his remarks about the suspect in conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s killing sparked backlash. The FCC, whose independence has been questioned since Donald Trump took office, urged stations to stop airing the program. Nexstar Media Group, which is currently seeking FCC approval for a $6.2 billion merger, dropped the show on its 32 ABC affiliates. While Sinclair, the largest ABC affiliate group, vowed not to air the show unless “appropriate steps” are taken. The controversy coincides with concerns that a forthcoming executive order on political violence and hate speech could threaten free speech.Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang speaks to journalists as he arrives for a press conference at Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Beijing, China, on July 16, 2025.
What We’re Watching: China bans Nvidia chips, Fed holds big meeting, Saudi Arabia pulls plug on music lounges
China bans Nvidia’s last AI chip as its domestic industry catches up
China has ordered major tech firms, including Alibaba and ByteDance, to stop buying Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D AI chips, effectively banning them. The move shows Beijing is confident that its own rapidly-advancing domestic producers can now rival Nvidia’s offerings. Curiously, the decision comes just weeks after US President Donald Trump gave Nvidia the green light to sell chips in China in exchange for the US government getting a cut of the revenue. Will Beijing’s new ban stay in place, or is China merely jockeying for leverage ahead of an expected Friday phone call between Trump and President Xi Jinping?
A Fed cut is coming – but what are the caveats?
The US Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the first time this year at its meeting today, with investors anticipating a quarter-point cut. A rapidly-cooling labor market is pushing the Fed to cut rates. There are things to watch: first, what are the Fed’s predictions about growth and inflation later this year? Prices jumped last month as the effect of Trump’s tariffs filtered through, strengthening the case against further rate cuts. Second, how will Trump respond? He has threatened Fed Chair Jerome Powell with removal for not lowering rates fast enough, and is embroiled in a legal fight about whether he can fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Saudi Arabia’s liberalization streak faces the music
Authorities in Riyadh and Jeddah have shuttered at least two dozen music and performance “lounges” in recent weeks. The venues, which permit shisha smoking and mixing of the sexes, have proliferated since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman began a sweeping liberalization of the Kingdom’s ultra-strict social rules several years ago. Authorities officially cite public health concerns as the cause for the closures, but the move comes amid a backlash against the venues from conservative Saudis, who view them as vice-promoting nuisances.
Big oil is getting big mad at Trump
So far, Trump's approach to energy policy is to maximize US fossil fuel production that keeps the price of gasoline low, and it's been a winning formula. But in the latest episode of The Debrief, Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew says the Big Oil honeymoon may be coming to an end.
First, his sweeping tariffs announced earlier this year, shocked oil markets and sent the price of oil tumbling at the same time. Tariffs on things like imported steel means rising costs for US oil companies. It's now more expensive to drill a well in the United States than it was a year ago. Second, Trump is anxious to preserve his relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and also the head of OPEC. As a result, Trump has turned a blind eye to OPEC policy of increasing oil production this year, which has pushed prices down even further. Low prices. Rising costs means less profits for US oil companies. So why does that matter? Well, less profits means fewer jobs, a slowdown in activity and economic pain in places like North Dakota and Texas Centers of the US oil industry that also happen to be deep red states where Trump generally maintains high levels of support. That means some trouble for Trump moving into next year's midterm elections by November of 2026. Drill baby drill might seem like a hollow mantra, and that might hurt Trump's brand where it matters most.
An oil tanker is being loaded at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018.
Hard Numbers: OPEC+ further expands oil output, Ukraine attacks drone corruption, UK releases gonorrhoea vaccine, & More
547,000: OPEC Plus, the eight-member oil cartel de facto led by Saudi Arabia, announced on Sunday it would increase oil production by 547,000 barrels a day, the latest in a series of increases that first started in April. In response, oil prices dropped more than 2% on Monday.
6: Anti-corruption authorities in Ukraine charged six people with embezzling funds intended for drone purchases in a “large-scale” bribery scheme. The arrests include one sitting legislator, a National Guard commander, two officials, and two businessmen.
100,000: The United Kingdom rolled out its gonorrhoea vaccines on Sunday, a move that the National Health Service believes will prevent 100,000 cases of the sexually transmitted infection. The vaccine is 30-40% effective, but the hope is that it will stem the growing number of antibiotic-resistant cases of the infection.
12: Former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe was sentenced to 12 years under house arrest on Friday for witness tampering and fraud. He was also barred from public office and fined $578,000, but the right-wing ex-leader plans to appeal the conviction.
0000: Iran’s parliament proposed cutting four zeros from is currency, the rial, as decades of high inflation, sanctions and economic mismanagement have eroded its value. The proposed change would aim to simplify financial accounting and reduce printing costs.Syrian Minister of Economy Dr. Nidal Al-Shaar (left) meets with Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih (right) during an official visit in Damascus, Syria, on July 23, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Saudi invests in Syria rebuild, Ukraine and Russia seek cash, Thai-Cambodia border battle escalates
Saudi seeks a piece of the Syrian pie
Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest $6 billion to rebuild the war-torn Syrian economy, an amount that represents roughly 30% of Syria’s 2023 GDP. Still, the investment is just a tiny fraction of the estimated $400 billion in reconstruction funds that Syria needs. We’re watching to see if the Saudi move spurs other regional powers to take the plunge too – either as partners or rivals to Saudi influence. Meanwhile, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa must try to keep a lid on sectarian violence and deal with ongoing attacks from a wary Israel. (Read more here.)
Ukraine and Russia get their money up for more war
The Russian and Ukrainian governments, apparently readying for even more conflict as peace talks stay stalled, are scrambling to shore up their war-fighting finances. On Thursday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky asked European leaders to help pay not only for new weapons but also for higher wages for his country’s soldiers. Meanwhile, as Russia’s war economy starts to sputter, President Vladimir Putin’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by two percentage points to a still-sky-high 18% — its second rate cut this summer.
Thailand-Cambodia clashes could reach “stage of war”
Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia continue. Thailand has now evacuated more than 130,000 people from the area as acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai warns the situation “is escalating and could develop to the stage of war.” Violence has erupted in 12 areas along the disputed frontier, killing at least 15 Thais and one Cambodian. Nationalist tensions and a friendship breakup between powerful former leaders Hun Sen of Cambodia and Thaksin Shinawatra of Thailand are further inflaming the crisis.