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FILE photo of Scotland First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
Sturgeon’s bombshell upends UK politics
In last Friday’s edition, we documented the trials and tribulations now facing Britain’s Conservative Party. This week brought news that further disrupts UK politics.
On Wednesday, Nicola Sturgeon dropped a political bombshell by announcing she’ll resign as Scotland’s first minister in the coming weeks. Much speculation has followed on why she’s quitting, but the larger question is what impact this will have on the ability of her party (the Scottish National Party) to deliver on the issue that has fueled her entire career: Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom. Beyond Scotland, the Sturgeon news creates a major new headache for Conservatives.
Scottish independence?
First, there’s the question of Scotland’s future. “Sturgeon's resignation is a big setback to the prospects of Scotland leaving the UK in the foreseeable future,” says Eurasia Group’s Mij Rahman. Recent polls signal that Scottish public support for independence has advanced little since 55% voted against it in a 2014 referendum. (Recent polls, here and here, show the “no” votes still lead by 6-12 points.) And that’s after Britain voted for a Brexit that 62% in Scotland opposed and after 13 years of rule by Conservatives, who remain unpopular across much of Scotland.
After the UK Supreme Court ruled last November that Scotland can’t hold another independence referendum without (highly unlikely) approval from the UK government, Sturgeon proposed a plan to use upcoming elections in Scotland as a de facto independence vote. But many within her party have warned that she underestimates the risk of a bad result that might set the independence movement back still further, and many will now see Sturgeon’s resignation as an admission that she can’t lead the movement across the finish for the foreseeable future.
What’s next for Sturgeon’s party? Probably a bitter fight to replace her, one that could divide support for the SNP over other issues. In the meantime, her absence will slow the demand for another vote. “It will be much harder to keep the independence flame burning without her at a time when support for a breakaway appears to be on the wane,” notes Rahman.
Good news for Labour
Beyond Scotland, Sturgeon’s departure and tougher days for the SNP might prove great news for the Labour Party, which already enjoys a sizeable polling lead ahead of national elections, which are expected next year. (UK elections must be held no later than January 2025.) Rahman says that “Labour’s consistently weak performance in Scotland has been the major reason” that some still doubt it can win a parliamentary majority.
Before the SNP became the dominant force in Scottish politics, it was Labour that won the lion’s share of support from Scottish voters in national elections. Today, the SNP holds 48 of Scotland’s seats in the UK parliament, and Labour holds just one. But the disarray within the SNP following Sturgeon’s exit and a possibly ugly battle to succeed her might give Labour a critical few extra seats in a national vote it’s already favored to win.
Scotland's First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party, Nicola Sturgeon, launches her manifesto during the Scottish Parliamentary election in Glasgow, Scotland.
Scotland's rocky road ahead
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister, says another independence referendum for Scotland is now a matter of "when not if," and that after leaving the UK, Scotland will launch a bid to rejoin the EU. But there are formidable obstacles ahead.
Getting to a vote will force a complex game of chicken with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. If a majority of Scots then vote for independence — hardly a sure thing – the process of extricating their new country from the UK will make Brexit look easy. Next, come the challenges of EU accession. In other words, Scotland's journey down the rocky road ahead has only just begun.
Obstacle 1 – Getting to a vote. Scotland can't stage a legally binding referendum without approval from the UK parliament, which can't happen without a go-ahead from Boris Johnson. Here's where the political game begins. Johnson knows an independence vote in Scotland could still go either way. Polls suggest support for independence winning by the narrowest of margins.
If Johnson says yes to a referendum, he could become the PM who lost Scotland and broke up the UK. That would likely end his political career. If he says no, he risks driving up support inside Scotland in favor of breaking away — and he knows he can't say no forever. The UK can't simply hold Scotland hostage. At least not indefinitely.
For now, Johnson can say, "Nicola, shouldn't you be focused on COVID and recovery?" To which Sturgeon will reply, "Yes, Boris, we are focused on COVID. But when it's under control, we want to vote." Johnson can throw money at Scotland and offer it more autonomy, but it's unlikely that either will change many Scottish minds on a question as large as independence.
Obstacle 2 – Winning the referendum. In 2014, Scotland voted to remain within the UK by a margin of 55-45. Much has changed since then. Though Scotland voted 62-38 for the UK to remain within the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum, the far larger number of votes in England carried the day, and Brexit pulled Scotland unwillingly from the EU. That's the main reason there's been a shift in Scotland in favor of independence since the first referendum.
But no one knows what might happen during a new campaign. Johnson's government will pull out all the stops to persuade Scots that independence is much riskier than they think, and he'll insist Scotland will be economically stronger inside the UK than outside. If Scotland votes to remain, even by the tiniest of margins, it will be at least a generation before another referendum can be contemplated.
Obstacle 3- Leaving the UK. Extricating Scotland from the UK will be far more costly and risky than the UK leaving Europe. After all, the UK joined the EU in 1973, while Scotland has been part of Great Britain since 1707. The legal and regulatory ties will be extraordinarily hard to untangle. The value of Scotland's exports to the rest of the UK is four times more than to the EU. That would change over time if Scotland joined the EU, but a hard border between England and Scotland would create an immediate shock and lasting damage. At least one recent study found that Scottish exit from the UK would be far more economically damaging than Brexit, even if Scotland eventually rejoins the EU.
Adding to the friction, Johnson's government, mindful of the movement for Irish reunification and independence chatter in Wales, will make everything to do with Scotland's exit as contentious and painful as possible.
Obstacle 4 – Joining the EU. This might be the easiest to surmount. After all, as part of the UK, Scotland was an EU member for nearly half a century. The process of political, economic, legal and regulatory alignment would be far easier than for any previous EU membership candidate.
That said, accession would depend on a unanimous vote of all current members. Spain, under challenge by Catalan separatists, might wield a veto to avoid setting a precedent for breakaway states. EU concessions to ease Spanish fears could smooth Scotland's path, depending on what's happening in Spanish politics at that moment.
Bottom line. Brexit reminded us that secession movements aren't driven by pragmatism. They're fueled by hope, fear, anger, and pride. Those who want an independent Scotland can overcome all these obstacles. But we shouldn't underestimate the complexity of the problems ahead, or how long it will take to solve them.
UK & France fight over fishing rights & why Scottish elections matter
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:
What's going on between the United Kingdom and France over fishing rights?
Yes, good question. Why on earth are they sending the Royal Navy to chase away some French fishermen from the island of Jersey? Fishing rights is very controversial. It was one of the key issues in the Brexit negotiations. Extremely divisive. Fishermen are fairly determined people but sending the Royal Navy to handle the French fishermen was somewhat excessive. I guess it played rather well with the English nationalists for Boris Johnson in the local elections, though.
How important are the Scottish elections for the future of the UK?
They are very important. If there is a solid pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, they will press for a new referendum. Will they get a new referendum? Well, sooner or later, I guess they will, the one way or the other. It might not be imminent. Will they win that referendum? Well, that's much too early to say, much too early to say. But it's going to be a very divisive issue for the United Kingdom. And they have a problem with Northern Ireland as well.