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People in Damascus celebrate after the Kurdish-led and U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to integrate into Syria's new state institutions.
Syrian government inks key deal with the Kurds
In a big step toward trying to unify post-Assad Syria, the government reached an agreement with the SDF, a US-backed Kurdish militia that has controlled large swathes of northeast Syria for nearly a decade.
President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF leader Mazloum Abdi inked the deal on Monday.
What was agreed: The SDF will integrate “civilian and military institutions” into the Syrian state by year’s end. This includes border controls and, importantly, oil fields, that before the war generated a fifth of Syria’s official government revenue.
The eight-point pact also guarantees the political rights of all Syrians, regardless of background, facilitates the return of Kurdish refugees, and recognizes the Kurds as “an indigenous community.”
The Syrian context: Last weekend, sectarian violence exploded in western Syria when Assadist holdouts from the Alawite community attacked a state checkpoint. Some government forces, dominated by al-Sharaa’s HTS jihadist militia, responded with a rampage of sectarian reprisals that left more than 1,000 Alawites and Christians dead.
The SDF deal, with its broader language about rights and citizenship in the new Syria, is a positive step. But implementing will not be easy in a context where the fledgling post-Assad state is still trying to solidify control, bolster stability, and navigate ferocious sectarian and ethnic crosscurrents. It will require good faith from both sides, and firm external support.
The Turkish angle: Ankara, a backer of the new Syrian government, has long disliked the SDF, which is linked to Kurdish PKK militants in Turkey. But with the PKK now laying down arms after 40 years of conflict, a bigger settlement between Kurds, Turkey, and the new Syria could be afoot.Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces.
Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action
In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.
Aren’t the Kurds against the Assad regime, too? Yes, but that’s not the beef. HTS works with the Turkish proxies and relies on Ankara for political support in high-level negotiations to end the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is angling for an advantageous position on the war’s aftermath and said his “greatest wish” was “for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end.”
For Turkey, that means both weakening Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and cutting the Kurds down to size, as it has long-standing problems with Kurdish separatists at home.
Don’t forget, Turkey is also a US ally — a NATO member, in fact — so urging its proxies to fight US proxies in a theatre where Russian forces also actively operate causes headaches in Washington. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas of Aleppo on Monday, not far from where Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 that strayed over the border in 2015. Quite an explosive position for a lame-duck US president.
Speaking of proxies… Iran-backed militias crossed into Syria from Iraq to help shore up Assad’s counterattack as well. Assad will be glad for that help as the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, once a major pillar of support for Assad’s regime, said Monday it would not deploy fighters to Syria right now. The group is still regrouping after getting mauled by Israel and is warily watching as last week’s ceasefire in that conflict appears to be breaking down already.
Where is the US in all this? Washington had reportedly held talks before the Aleppo offensive with the UAE about lifting sanctions on Syria in exchange for Assad distancing himself from Iran and Russia. That seems unlikely now that Assad’s back is against the wall and he needs all the help he can get. Beyond milquetoast calls for de-escalation, Washington has thus far kept its cards close to its vest.