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The crucial down-ballot races to watch in the US election
In the Senate, Democrats are on the defensive, with Republicans only needing two new seats – or one seat plus the White House – to win control. Thirty-four seats are up for election, but the balance of power will likely be decided by just nine races: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno, who is currently up by 8 points in the polls. Republicans are also close to flipping Montana – where the Democratic incumbent is down by 16 points – and are ahead in Nebraska by 19 points. In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz is ahead by just 5 points against Rep. Colin Allred.
Democrats are ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, but with razor-thin margins. At the most, they lead Nevada by 2 points and the rest of the states by 1 point or less.
Control of the House will likely be decided by 27 highly competitive races. Here, Republicans are on the defensive but could maintain control of the chamber by winning 12 of the 27 toss-up races. Key states to watch are California, where four Republicans will defend their seats in districts that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and New York and New Jersey, where the two parties are duking it out for control of the suburbs.
There are 11 seats for governor up for grabs. In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is trying to maintain Democratic control of the Tar Heel State against Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who would be the state’s first Black governor if elected. New Hampshire and Washington are also holding competitive races.
While all eyes are focused on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win control of the White House, we’ll also be watching these down-ballot races to see which party wins control of the legislature for the next two years.
Is Congress headed for a “double flip?”
US presidential elections may overshadow Congressional contests, but which party controls the House and Senate is critical in determining what a president can and can’t do during their time in office. The presidential race is close, with just 25 days to go before Election Day, and the White House is either party’s to win.
Congress, however, may be headed for a “double flip,” with Republicans on pace to retake the Senate from Democrats but lose the House, which they currently control. If that should happen, it would be the first time in US history.
Experts say a double flip could produce extraordinary gridlock, which, in the current political environment, is saying something.
Eight close Senate races out of the 34 seats up for election this time around are set to determine who controls that chamber. In the House, the Cook Report projects 26 toss-up seats and that 16 lean seats are up for grabs, meaning 42 or fewer elections out of 435 could have an outsized effect on the next Congress – and the next White House.
Ben Cardin’s deepfake debacle
US Sen. Ben Cardin, a Democrat from Maryland, recently joined a videoconference with a top Ukrainian official. The only problem? It was a deepfake.
Cardin believed he was speaking with former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who wanted to chat over Zoom. But according to the New York Times, Cardin grew suspicious when the person posing as Kuleba began asking questions about politics, the upcoming election, and sensitive foreign policy questions. He asked Cardin whether he supported firing long-range missiles into Russia, for instance. Cardin ended the call, reported it to the State Department, and officials at State told him it was a deepfake. It’s not yet clear who was behind the artificial intelligence mask, which looked and sounded like Kuleba.
Senate security officials warned lawmakers and their aides after the incident. “While we have seen an increase of social engineering threats in the last several months and years, this attempt stands out due to its technical sophistication and believability,” they wrote, cautioning that similar incidents could arise in the future, especially ahead of the November elections.Campuses in crisis vs. Capitol Hill calm
Across the US, college students have been protesting, sleeping outside, and even getting arrested for trying to force their schools to divest from companies with ties to Israel. Meanwhile, it's been business as usual on Capitol Hill, where the Senate approved a $95.3 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan late Tuesday. The bill, which includes $17 billion in wartime assistance to Israel plus $9 billion for humanitarian aid in Gaza, is now heading for President Joe Biden's desk, where it is expected to be signed.
Student protesters have been targeting companies like Hewlett Packard, Lockheed Martin, and Airbnb, identified by the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement as benefitting the Israeli government, which they blame for the 34,183 Palestinians who have died from Israeli attacks on Gaza since Oct. 7. At Columbia College, the oldest undergraduate college at Columbia, 76.5% of students voted this week for the university’s $13.6 billion endowment to divest from Israel. Divestment is being pushed on campuses across the country, from Columbia and Yale to the University of Michigan and Berkeley, to name a few.
Universities appear unlikely to cave to protesters' demands and are instead bracing for chaotic ends to the semester. Columbia has moved to hybrid learning in acknowledgment that many students, particularly Jewish students, report feeling unsafe on campus. Meanwhile, colleges are weighing whether it is possible to hold graduation ceremonies without them becoming high-profile stages for protest.
Yet, despite intense student activism on campuses, there was no sign of public protest against the aid package on Capitol Hill this week.
Biden knows he is facing a possible backlash from Gen Z voters over Gaza and US funding for Israel. The president had hoped tougher talk on Israel would boost his reelection bid, but with less than seven months before Nov. 5, the protests and aid package could make it more difficult for him to get young voters to the polls.
Hard numbers: Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest, Hugh Grant settles Sun case, Russian death toll in Ukraine, Boeing whistleblowers testify
3,000: Myanmar’s detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, 78, has been moved from prison to house arrest in a bid to protect her health amid severely hot weather. The junta also granted amnesty for more than3,000 prisoners to mark this week’s traditional Thingyan New Year holiday.
66 million: Hugh Grant says he has settled a high court claim against the publisher of TheSun newspaper, News Group Newspapers, for“an enormous sum of money.” Grant accused the paper of phone hacking, unlawful information-gathering, landline tapping, bugging his phone, and burgling his flat and office. His case was meant to go to trial alongside Prince Harry and other high-profile individuals next year. NGN, which has rejected any wrongdoing, said of the settlement with Grant that it was "in both parties' financial interests not to progress to a costly trial.” Last year, The Sun paid £66 million to victims of its illegal information-gathering.
50,000: Over50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the Ukraine conflict, with the death toll in the second year of fighting nearly 25% higher than the first, according to the BBC. BBC Russian, Mediazona, and volunteers focused on open-source information and new graves to conduct the count, and the total is eight times higher than Russia's official figures.
98.7: Multiple whistleblowers testified before a US Senate panel on Wednesday, alleging widespread manufacturing and safety issues within Boeing, as Congress and regulators try to hold Boeing accountable following a mid-air blowout on a 737 MAX 9 jet in January that reignited safety concerns. The whistleblowers alleged that the company failed 98.7% of the time to fill tiny gaps between components in the aircraft's fuselages, which could eventually cause fatigue failure. Boeing said that while it has taken “important steps to foster a safety culture that empowers and encourages all employees to raise their voice,” it knows there is “more work to do.”
TikTok on the clock
In a rare bipartisan vote of 352-65, the US House of Representatives passed a bill on Wednesday that – if it survives the Senate — could force TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company ByteDance or be banned on all US devices.
Many see TikTok as a threat to America’s national security since Chinese law requires private-sector companies to answer to the Chinese Communist Party. Lawmakers worry that Beijing could weaponize Americans’ user data (browsing history, location, contacts, etc.) and use the almighty algorithm to influence elections and further divide an already polarized country.
TikTok has found a surprising ally in 2024 hopeful Donald Trump. The former president pulled a 180 on supporting the ban, saying it will benefit American-owned Facebook — which he called a “true enemy of the people” (note, he doesn’t own that one). Trump’s change of heart came days after a meeting with GOP megadonor Jeff Yass, who owns a 15% stake in ByteDance.
What’s next: Although President Joe Biden signaled he would sign the bill, Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer’s willingness to bring it to the Senate floor, and how everyone will vote, remains unclear.
What is clear: No one will come out of this fight unscathed. If TikTok gets banned, 170 million TikTok users (especially young people and Trump) will revolt. If everything stays the same, millions of Americans could remain vulnerable to foreign manipulation.Senate announces plan for Ukraine-Border deal – Trump calls it “meaningless”
A bipartisan group of US Senators released an outline of a deal Sunday that would send billions to Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza and beef up US border security after months of wrangling. Too bad House Speaker Mike Johnson called it “dead on arrival.”
Show me the money. Overall, the price tag will cross $118 billion, including ~$60 billion for Ukraine, ~$20 billion for border security, ~$14 billion in security aid to Israel, and ~$10 billion for humanitarian aid in Gaza. The bill also creates new pathways to legal migration and raises the standards of evidence a migrant faces persecution at home needed to claim asylum. Folks who meet the new standards will be able to work and live in the US pending a hearing, and especially compelling cases may even be granted asylum on the spot by an immigration officer.
Will it see the light of day? With former President Donald Trump actively campaigning against the bill, smart money says “no.” He’d like to keep the immigration issue in the headlines to hammer President Joe Biden with – and the situation underscores the dynamics within the Republican Party, where a candidate who holds no office is influencing legislative priorities.
The fact is, Johnson stands to lose his job – just like his predecessor did – if he crosses Trump on this, so his diagnosis may prove prescient.
What Democrats and Republicans have in common this Thanksgiving
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
What are three things that lawmakers have to be grateful for this Thanksgiving?
Well, the first is that they get to go home. Lawmakers reached a short-term deal to fund the government until January 19th, which means that they won't be around Washington, DC, beating each other up over levels of funding. That can all wait until 2024. They can go home and enjoy the holidays with their families and not pass much other legislation this year.
The second is that so far, the Inflation Reduction Act seems to be working to spur manufacturing in the United States. There are 22 new battery plants currently under construction. There's record investment in electronics manufacturing, and a number of European companies have announced their intention to expand green energy projects in the United States and not because of these subsidies. Now, of course, the real question about the success of the program is going to come when the subsidies stop, and you can judge how well the US has done in spurring this manufacturing in the US. But for now, Democrats are happy because it looks like the IRA is working. Republicans like the jobs, even though they didn't vote for the bill.
The third thing that both parties have to be grateful for is that there are no competitive primaries, which means that there's no choosing sides. There's no traipsing through the snowy fields of Iowa to campaign for one guy or another. Donald Trump is almost certain to win the Republican nomination, and Joe Biden faces no real challengers. So, both parties can marshal all their resources for the general election in 2024. And neither party is likely to go through a particularly divisive primary in the first half of the year.