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U.S. Senator John Thune (R-SD) speaks during an interview with Reuters in his office at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., September 13, 2023.
Thune takes the helm of the Senate
John Thune has ascended to the top position in the Senate, replacing Mitch McConnell, who held the position for 18 years. In the position, Thune will be tasked with managing Donald Trump's demands, keeping 53 Republican senators in line, and advancing a complex legislative agenda.
In the near term, he will need to oversee the confirmation of Trump nominees – many of which are cloaked in controversy – through a tightly divided Senate, where he can only afford to lose three Republican votes assuming Democrats remain united in opposition.
Thune also plans to pass a comprehensive bill combining border security, military spending, and energy production in the first month or so of the Senate’s term, which convenes on Friday. Doing so will require procedural maneuvers to avoid the filibuster, while simultaneously working to reform Senate operations.
But Thune’s greatest challenge will likely be pleasing Trump, who he has crossed in the past. During his term as the Senate’s second-most powerful Republican, Thune chose not to back Trump’s challenge to the 2020 election outcome and voted to certify the results.
House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks to the media following the passage of spending legislation to avert a government shutdown, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, on Dec. 20, 2024.
US averts shutdown but offers preview of Trump 2.0
US lawmakers early Saturday struck an 11th-hour deal to avert a government shutdown. On Friday, the House voted overwhelmingly to pass a stopgap spending bill after a week of chaos on Capitol Hill in which President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk intervened to scuttle two earlier bipartisan bills. The Senate followed suit shortly after midnight.
The final measure passed on Friday funds the government through March, includes $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers, and earmarks $100 billion in fresh disaster relief funds. It doesn’t include Trump’s demand to suspend the debt ceiling, which limits how much the federal government can borrow.
Three things are immediately clear from this week:
First, Elon Musk has real government power even without a real government position. Musk’s extensive criticisms of the initial bill’s length and contents, some of which included false or misleading claims, shaped the politics immediately, sinking the first version of the spending bill. Musk does not hold an elected or even an official post, but with his 208 million followers on X, which he owns, he hardly needs to.
Trump’s grip on the GOP is hardly complete. The president-elect could not force his party to accept the idea of scrapping the debt ceiling, which would have given him substantially more spending room during his first two years in office. Instead, lawmakers pledged to take up the issue separately once he is in office.
This week was a preview. With a bold and controversial Trump policy agenda, a slim House GOP majority, and another hugely influential risk cook in the kitchen, the past few days offer a window into what legislating may often look like beginning in January. Buckle up.Sen. John Thune (R-SD) speaks to the media after being chosen to serve as Senate majority leader at the United States Capitol.
Republicans win the House and elect new Senate majority leader
While the final margin is still being determined, the GOP cemented control after winning critical battleground seats in Arizona and California. Republicans, however, will likely have just a slight edge over the Democrats in the House, especially after GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz stepped down yesterday after being nominated to become Trump’s attorney general.
In the Senate on Wednesday, meanwhile, Republicans elected John Thune of South Dakota to serve as majority leader in the next Congress. He succeeds Mitch McConnell, who held the term for 18 years.
The appointment marks a continuation of a McConnell-like establishment Republican leading the Senate, and a pivot away from his MAGA-loyal opponent Rick Scott. Scott, who pitched himself as Trump’s closest ally in the race, came in third behind another traditional Republican, John Cornyn. Thune led after the first ballot, raking in 25 votes while Cornyn won 15 and Scott garnered 13 votes.
What’s first on Thune’s agenda? He will be under immense pressure to approve Trump’s growing list of cabinet picks. “The Senate will move as quickly as possible to confirm Trump’s appointees” says Eurasia Group’s US director Clayton Allen. “Thune recognizes that this will be a key point of (potential) contention with the White House and will work to avoid being pushed into a debate over recess appointments.”
Thune endorsed Trump’s picks to curry favor ahead of the majority leader race, but he “will bristle at actually giving up Senate authority or putting his moderate members in the difficult position of opposing an effort to force recess appointments.”
Beyond approving Trump’s cabinet picks, Republicans are expected to use their united government to expedite their legislative agenda, including tax cuts, loosening of regulations on domestic oil and gas production, and stringent border security measures.
To see all of Trump’s cabinet picks, read our run down here.
Republicans reclaim Senate control, with a unified government in reach
As projected, Republicans have won back control of the Senate, largely thanks to Democrats vacating seats in the red states of Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. The victory gives them the power over nominations of judges and heads of the federal bureaucracy, as well as the ability to control legislation – positioning them to be a boon to Donald Trump’s policy goals.
Their victory comes as the GOP’s longtime leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, 82, steps down. Republicans are expected to hold elections for new leadership next week.
If current trends hold, Republicans look set to flip Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania, with Nevada still too close to call, giving them a firm 53- to 54-seat majority in Congress. Democrats never had much hope of holding on to West Virginia or Montana, meaning they knew they would likely lose the chamber. But depending on the final counts in the swing states of Nevada and Pennsylvania, President-elect Donald Trump’s party could have a comfortable margin.
With four Senate races still to call, the size of the GOP’s majority will matter greatly, especially since Republicans like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska regularly break party lines.
Interestingly, as of the time of writing, Democratic Senate candidates are leading in Arizona, Nevada (slightly), and Wisconsin, and won in Michigan, all states that Trump won on the presidential level. If they all squeak out wins, and independent Sen. Angus King holds on to his seat in Maine, Democrats will have 47 seats — enough to filibuster comfortably and stymie some GOP legislation.
That becomes especially important if the GOP also wins the House, where they currently have the lead with 206 seats against the Democrats’ 191, with 38 races yet to be called.
US Capitol building at in the morning sun. Washington DC, USA The US Capitol building in the early morning at sunrise.
Election Countdown: The 6 congressional races to watch
While eyes around the globe will be on the US presidency this Election Day, there are consequential races further down the ballot that will determine how much power Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will wield. A handful of Senate and House races will decide which party has the power to advance or stymie the next president’s agenda.
Going into election night, 538 forecasters give Republicans a 92% chance of winning the Senate, but experts say the House could be anyone’s game. The Senate is likely to be called on election night, but because of slow counting in California, the results in the House are unlikely to be called before the end of the week at the earliest.
Here are the key races to watch.
Senate
Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority but are facing an almost certain loss in West Virginia. That means that Republicans only need to capture one more race to win the majority. This is a pretty comfortable spot for the GOP to be in. Meanwhile, Democrats rely on dramatically outperforming in the polls or performing miracles and expanding their map by winning states like Texas or Florida.
Thirty-four seats are up for grabs, and 10 races are expected to determine the balance of power: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, Maryland, and Texas.
Arizona offers a race of political extremes. Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is stepping down, and progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego and Trump-darling Kari Lake are vying to take her spot. Lake, who lost the governor’s race in 2022 and continues to insist the election was “stolen,” has been encroaching on Gallego’s lead in the polls in recent days. Gallego’s slight edge is being attributed to his popularity among Latino voters, who make up 25% of the electorate.
Michigan, meanwhile, is a competition between centrists. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and mainstream Republican Mike Rogers – a former Trump critic who has since embraced him – is facing outgoing Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is using her national security background to win over centrists in and around Detroit.
The race has been tied in the final weeks of the election, and some of the biggest issues are reproductive rights and the candidates’ support for electric vehicles – a hot topic in a state that is home to the Big Three auto manufacturers.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno. Brown has lost what was once a commanding lead in recent weeks and is now polling behind Moreno by one point. The race has drawn $500 million in ad spending, more than any Senate race in history.
Control of the Senate could very well hinge on this state, which has voted twice for Trump and is likely to do so for a third time this year. Brown has held on to power in the past by focusing on local issues and evading questions about national political figures but has suffered from attack ads framing him as being far-left on transgender issues. But Democrats need this state if they have any chance of keeping their majority.
House of Representatives
Control of the House, like everything in this election, is expected to be incredibly close. All 435 seats are on the line, and, likely, whichever party wins control will do so by just a few seats. The Republicans are on the defense and need to control their slim majority, while Democrats need to gain four seats to flip the chamber. Democrat’s lead has declined as the election approached, with their margin slipping to just 0.5 points over the Republicans, down from 2.6 in early September.
New York’s 19th district is one of the most expensive House races in the 2024 election, with Democrats seeing flipping the seat as key to their efforts to regain control of the House. Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro faces a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley in this swing district that stretches across all or parts of the 11 upstate counties. It is expected to be a bellwether for how the parties are performing in the suburbs of New York and New Jersey, where Democrats saw disappointing turnout in the 2022 midterms, which led to them losing the seat.
Molinaro, once known as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, has veered to the right this cycle, with his campaign drawing on fears about immigration and crime, while Riley has focused on abortion and reproductive rights.
Virginia’s 7th district is worth watching because it is expected to be an early bellwether of how the parties are fairing in a mixed district that spans from the DC suburbs to the rural Piedmont region. Republican Derrick Anderson is currently down four points against Democrat Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman, who led the whistleblower account of the quid-quo-pro phone call between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky that became the basis of the first impeachment case against Trump.
In Nebraska’s 2nd district, incumbent Republican Don Bacon is currently beating Democrat Tony Vargas by just two points. That's the same margin the GOP won by in 2022, and the Dems have had their eyes on winning it back ever since.
The district is one of 16 Republican-held seats in places that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. It is also known as the “blue dot” because it often sends one of Nebraska’s electoral votes to the Democrats even as the rest of the states’ votes go to Republicans.
Check out more of our recent election coverage:
- Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states
- The 15 counties to watch on election night
- The Disinformation Election: How conspiracy theories are impacting the vote
- How the 2024 presidential election could define the future of the Supreme Court
- Each presidential candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the election. As the results come in, keep track of them with our handy map! Download it here
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North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, whom Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump has endorsed in the race to be the state's next governor, speaks before his arrival for a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, U.S., March 2, 2024.
The crucial down-ballot races to watch in the US election
When Americans head to the polls on Nov. 5, they’ll vote for more than just the next president. They’ll also decide key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races determining which party can enable or obstruct the future president’s policy agenda. Here are the races to watch.
In the Senate, Democrats are on the defensive, with Republicans only needing two new seats – or one seat plus the White House – to win control. Thirty-four seats are up for election, but the majority will likely be decided by just nine races: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno, who is currently up by 8 points in the polls. Republicans are also close to flipping Montana – where the Democratic incumbent is down by 16 points – and are ahead in Nebraska by 19 points. In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz is ahead by just 5 points against Rep. Colin Allred.
Democrats are ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, but with razor-thin margins. At the most, they lead Nevada by 2 points and the rest of the states by 1 point or less.
Control of the House will likely be decided by 27 air-tight races. Here, Republicans are on the defensive but could maintain control of the chamber by winning 12 of the 27 toss-up races. Key states to watch are California, where four Republicans will defend their seats in districts that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and New York and New Jersey, where the two parties are duking it out for control of the suburbs.
There are 11 seats for governor up for grabs. In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is trying to maintain Democratic control of the Tar Heel State against Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who would be the state’s first Black governor if elected. New Hampshire and Washington are also holding competitive races.
While all eyes are focused on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win control of the White House, we’ll also be watching these down-ballot races to see which party wins control of the legislature for the next two years.
The U.S. Capitol dome is seen in the morning sun in Washington, U.S., March 8, 2023.
Is Congress headed for a “double flip?”
US presidential elections may overshadow Congressional contests, but which party controls the House and Senate is critical in determining what a president can and can’t do during their time in office. The presidential race is close, with just 25 days to go before Election Day, and the White House is either party’s to win.
Congress, however, may be headed for a “double flip,” with Republicans on pace to retake the Senate from Democrats but lose the House, which they currently control. If that should happen, it would be the first time in US history.
Experts say a double flip could produce extraordinary gridlock, which, in the current political environment, is saying something.
Eight close Senate races out of the 34 seats up for election this time around are set to determine who controls that chamber. In the House, the Cook Report projects 26 toss-up seats and that 16 lean seats are up for grabs, meaning 42 or fewer elections out of 435 could have an outsized effect on the next Congress – and the next White House.
U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin addresses a press conference at U.S. Capitol on the future of the Chesapeake Bay
Ben Cardin’s deepfake debacle
US Sen. Ben Cardin, a Democrat from Maryland, recently joined a videoconference with a top Ukrainian official. The only problem? It was a deepfake.
Cardin believed he was speaking with former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who wanted to chat over Zoom. But according to the New York Times, Cardin grew suspicious when the person posing as Kuleba began asking questions about politics, the upcoming election, and sensitive foreign policy questions. He asked Cardin whether he supported firing long-range missiles into Russia, for instance. Cardin ended the call, reported it to the State Department, and officials at State told him it was a deepfake. It’s not yet clear who was behind the artificial intelligence mask, which looked and sounded like Kuleba.
Senate security officials warned lawmakers and their aides after the incident. “While we have seen an increase of social engineering threats in the last several months and years, this attempt stands out due to its technical sophistication and believability,” they wrote, cautioning that similar incidents could arise in the future, especially ahead of the November elections.