Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A woman votes during the parliamentary elections, in Pristina, Kosovo, February 9, 2025. R
Kosovo votes, but Kurti falls short of a majority
The Republic of Kosovo held parliamentary elections on Sunday, and with 88% of the votes counted, Prime Minister Albin Kurti's party, Vetëvendosje (Self-Determination Movement), is ahead with 41% of the vote – a drop from the 50% Kurti got in 2021. This means he will likely need to form a coalition to stay in power.
Who could Kurti team up with? The Democratic Party of Kosovo, or PDK, and the Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK, are projected to receive 22% and 18% respectively, while the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, the AAK, got 8%.
It is possible that the opposition parties could form a government on their own. Former Prime Minister and AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj said he was “looking forward to cooperating on the creation of an opposition government” to keep Kurti out of power, and Kurti himself has said he would not engage with the opposition parties. But Kurti seemed to have changed his tune late Sunday, declaring victory and vowing to govern. “We are the first party, the winning party that will create the next government,” he said. “We will continue to finish the work that we have started.”
What’s at stake? Under Kurti’s leadership, tensions escalated with both neighboring Serbia and Kosovo’s Serb minority. His left-leaning government banned the use of the Serbian dinar and shut post offices used by Serbs, drawing criticism from Western governments and leading the EU to suspend aid funding. In contrast, both the LDK and PDK are center-right and pro-Western, with the PDK campaigning on rejoining NATO and restoring relations with the US.
Should Kurti form the next government and continue with his anti-Serb stance, Kosovo risks becoming even more isolated. But should the opposition take power, it could redefine Kosovo’s relations with the US and the EU – which it wants to join – and potentially relaunch peace talks with Serbia.
EU rolls back Syria sanctions for economic rebound
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Is the European Union opening up to cooperation with the new government or regime in Damascus?
Yes, they are gradually. The foreign minister of the European Union took the decision early this week to start to ease sanctions on Syria that have been in place for years. And that is very important in order to start to get the economy going in the country. And that, of course, is very important in terms to start addressing all of the humanitarian needs. And also, eventually getting the economy going so that at some point in time perhaps people can start to move back to the country that they were forced to flee from during the years of civil war and repression.
Why was the prime minister of Serbia sacked?
That was part of a bigger move, defensive move, you can say by the president, by President Vučić. He has been under intense pressure due the last few months. There was an accident in Novi Sad, the second-biggest city that was blamed on the roof fell in, and that was blamed on bad construction and corruption. That has crystallized massive opposition to his regime, which has been there for a long time and is seen as increasingly authoritarian. So, pressure has been building up and he was now forced to concede sacking the prime minister and announcing new elections in April. So new elections in April in Serbia. There will be elections in Kosovo before that. There will be elections also in Albania. So, a lot of things are in flux in the Southern Balkans.
Serbian students protest in front of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) headquarters following the overnight beating of their colleagues by what they say were SNS activists, in Novi Sad, Serbia, January 28, 2025.
Serbia’s PM resigns amid mass protests
Serbia is in political turmoil after Prime Minister Miloš Vučevićresigned Tuesday following months of mass protests touched off by a deadly accident at a railway station.
The background: In November, a section of the roof at the central station in Novi Sad, one of Serbia’s largest cities, collapsed, killing 15 people. The station had recently been renovated by a Chinese-led construction consortium as part of a broader Budapest-Belgrade rail link. Critics blamed the accident on graft, and mass protests led by students and other critics of the country’s right-wing populist government swelled.
The resignations and criminal prosecutions of top officials responsible for the project failed to quell popular outrage. Last week, tens of thousands of people joined a general strike, and on Monday, farmers groups joined in, blocking streets in the capital.
What’s next: President Aleksandar Vučić – a prominent, China-friendly ally of Hungary’s “illiberal” PM Viktor Orbán – must now decide whether to try to form a new government or go to early elections, which is what protesters and the opposition want. Vučić, in power virtually uncontested since 2017, has said he will decide within 10 days. The streets are watching.FREIBERG, GERMANY - DECEMBER 10: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (not pictured) speak to the media following talks over lithium mining on December 10, 2024 in Freiberg, Germany. Germany and Serbia will be cooperating in the sustainable mining of lithium, a critical substance for the production of batteries for electric cars. A company called Zinnwald Lithium GmbH intends to mine up to 15,000 tons of lithium annually in the region of Saxony near Freiberg, enough to build one million electric car batteries. Serbia also has extensive lithium deposits.
Serbian president name-checks Assad, vows not to flee amid protests
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Tuesday said he would not flee in the face of demonstrations against his administration. “If they think I’m Assad, and that I’ll run away somewhere, I will not,” he said. Comparing oneself to the brutal Syrian ex-strongman wasn’t great PR – though in fairness, no one is accusing Vučić of gassing children or torturing civilians like Assad – and many Serbians are protesting persistent corruption in Belgrade.
The most recent wave of unrest started with a roof collapse at a train station that killed 15 people in the city of Novi Sad on Nov. 1. Opposition leaders seized on the tragedy to accuse Vučić’s ruling coalition of nepotism and graft that led to corners being cut on public construction projects, leaving them dangerously shoddy. The station in Novi Sad had been renovated as part of a wide deal with Chinese state companies to upgrade Serbian infrastructure.
Every Friday, protesters now blockade streets in Belgrade, Novi Sad, and other major cities, some holding signs accusing Vučić of corruption and portraying him with blood on his hands, and thousands turned out to mark the one-month anniversary of the collapse. Police have fired tear gas at demonstrators, and pro-government groups have attempted to escalate peaceful protests.
Will Vučić stick to his word? Probably. He’s weathered prolonged popular unrest before, including just last year. More than five months of demonstrations following a series of mass shootings managed to push out a few underlings, but not Vučić. We’re watching for a sacrificial lamb.
A demonstrator holds a flag as people block the Centre Railway Station during a protest against Rio Tinto's lithium mining project, in Belgrade, Serbia, August 10, 2024.
Serbia’s lithium mine: Green gold or toxic threat?
On Saturday, the US State Department denied it supported anti-government protests in Serbia centered on a proposed lithium mine in Serbiathat sparked widespread protests last week, which opposition figures called to continue. As Serbian farmers, environmentalists, and citizens fight to protect the scenic Jadar valley, it has also become a proxy battleground for Washington, Berlin, Moscow, and Beijing.
The Jadar Valley is a lush farming area rich in lithium ore, essential for electric vehicle batteries. Rio Tinto’s $2.4 billion mining and refining project there couldprovide as much as nine-tenths of Europe’s current lithium needs, enough foran estimated 1 million EV batteries a year.
Last month, Serbiareinstated approval for the project, which had been withdrawn in 2022 following anti-government protests. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic insisted that strict environmental safety protocols will be put in place, but opponents claim the project will destroy farmland and contaminate groundwater.
US and German officials support the mine as part of Europe’s green transition, and to curb dependence on China, currently the main source of the processed form of the mineral. And while Serbia is currently cozy with both China and Russia, the mine would further integrate the country’s economy with that of Europe and the US.
This, together with revelations that Serbia is a key supplier of munitions to Ukraine, has spawned speculation that the protests are the work of pro-Russia factions, eager to keep Belgrade in Moscow’s orbit. Meanwhile, Vucic claims they are led by “anarchists, Marxists, and hidden fascists” and said last week that Moscow warned him of a brewing coup. We’ll be watching whether more Serbs take to the streets in the coming days — and whether interest in the project falls along with EV sales.
Ukraine's capture of POWs undermines Russia's narrative
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
How might Ukraine's capture of Russian prisoners of war affect the narrative of the war?
I don't think it's going to have any immediate effect on the narrative of the war. The big shift in the narrative is, of course, that while the Russian Putin has been saying that Ukraine is about to lose this particular war week by week, day by day, village by village, that's been turned around and very much the outcome of the war is now more open, where Ukraine has demonstrated a substantial offensive capability as well. That's the change.
How do the lithium protests in Serbia reflect the wider tensions in the country?
Well, they certainly do. I mean, first it has to be said with large-scale mining project, there are always environmental concerns and there have been other mining projects in Serbia, Chinese with the Bor copper mine, where that has not been the case. So there are concerns. That being said, the protests are also fueled by the fact that there is substantial democracy and transparency deficit in Serbia. So under other circumstances, this would've been a more normal environmental concern protest. Now it's a much wider issue, reflecting tensions in Serbia's society.
Soccer Football - Euro 2024 - Group C - Serbia v England - Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen, Germany - June 16, 2024 Serbia fans inside the stadium before the match
The beautiful game can sometimes be ugly
The European Championship, aka the Euros, has been underway for just one week, but it’s already turning political. Serbia wants UEFA, soccer’s European governing body, to whip out a red card for Croatia and Albania over allegations their fans shouted anti-Serbian slurs during a match on Wednesday.
“Kill, kill, kill the Serb,” the fans allegedly chanted. It’s fair to say that Serbia felt this was extremely offside — and the country is threatening to quit the competition if action isn’t taken.
All of this reflects the long-running tensions in the Balkans linked to the 1990s Yugoslav Wars.
“What happened is scandalous,” said Jovan Surbatovic, general secretary of the Football Association of Serbia. “If UEFA doesn’t punish them, we will think about how to proceed.”
Relatedly, UEFA on Wednesday canceled the credentials of a Kosovar journalist for allegedly making a nationalist gesture toward Serbian fans during Sunday’s Serbia vs. England match. Serbian and Albanian fans also scored own goals of sorts by displaying nationalist banners at games, leading to fines from UEFA.
China's President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan disembark at Orly Airport, south of Paris, on May 5, 2024.
Xi goes on (short) European tour
This week marks President Xi Jinping’s first trip to Europe in five years. The Chinese leader will only visit France, Serbia, and Hungary – three countries where he’s likely to find the friendliest ears – and meet with EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade tensions and China’s support for Russia in its war with Ukraine.
Xi, who landed in Paris on Sunday, will also have a tete-a-tete with Emanuel Macron for the second time in as many years. You’ll remember that the French president raised continental eyebrows last year with a state visit to Beijing, where he declared that Europe should not be drawn into a standoff between China and the US over Taiwan. Macron’s independent foreign policy approach left a positive impression on Beijing.
This time, the French leader is looking beyond tensions in the Taiwan Strait. He told The Economist that it’s “in our interest to get China to weigh in on the stability of the international order.” Xi seemed to agree, issuing a statement that Sino-French relations “have established a model for the international community of peaceful coexistence.”
The two will discuss trade and security, with France wanting increased access to the Chinese market for its agricultural exports and protection for intellectual property rights for the French cosmetic industry. Macron will reiterate that China should stop exporting dual-use goods that power Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But we’re not holding our breath for any positive signals on that since the Chinese leader will then visit Hungary and Serbia, two countries with close ties to Russia. Xi’s visit to Serbia will focus on deepening trade relations – and it happens to coincide with the 25th anniversary week of NATO’s fatal bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. In Hungary, Xi wants to cement his relationship with autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has stymied EU efforts to hold China to account on human rights issues.