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Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador gestures during a press conference after Mexico's Security Minister Rosa Icela Rodriguez informed of the detention of Joaquin Guzman Lopez, El Chapo Guzman's son, and Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, at the National Palace, in Mexico City, Mexico July 26, 2024.
Can the US-Mexico relationship recover from arrests of Sinaloa cartel leaders?
Last week, the US carried out “the largest sting against Mexican criminal organizations ever,” according to Eurasia Group’s Mexico expert, Matías Gómez Léautaud, arresting Joaquín Guzmán López, son of Mexican drug lord “El Chapo,” and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. The two are central figures of the infamous Sinaloa cartel, and as details arise, it is becoming apparent that Guzmán likely betrayed Zambada, tricking him into getting arrested.
“Zambada is seen by many as the real mastermind behind the Sinaloa cartel, even before the capture of El Chapo,” says Gómez Léautaud. “Guzmán, on the other hand, has several incentives to negotiate with US authorities who have targeted the Chapitos’s operations in recent years due to their involvement in fentanyl traffic.”
The betrayal. Zambada allegedly thought the two were flying to northern Mexico to look at real estate, but instead, their private plane landed north of the border near El Paso, where US authorities were waiting on the tarmac. “My client neither surrendered nor negotiated any terms with the US government,” said Zambada’s lawyer Frank Perez. “Joaquín Guzmán López forcibly kidnapped my client.”
In response, President Andrés Manuel López Obradorimplored the cartels not to fight each other over the detentions. “Violence will likely increase in the coming months and years as the power vacuum opens opportunities for mid-level leaders and other criminal groups,” says Gómez Léautaud, “If this is indeed the result of a betrayal, retaliation will likely be long, brutal, and with unforeseen ramifications.”
Critically, the US did not collaborate with Mexican authorities. Obrador wasembarrassed to admit he knew nothing about the operation until it was over, which Gómez Léautaud believes is likely a sign that “collaboration on security issues has broken beyond repair during [Obrador’s] administration.”
“The lack of trust and the fallout from the operation will hinder the incoming administrations' leeway on both sides of the border to further tackle security issues together,” says Gómez Léautaud.
CBP agents stand by a plane that's believed to have carried Mexican drug lord Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Joaquin Guzman Lopez, who were arrested in El Paso, Texas.
Sinaloa cartel leaders arrested
Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, the leader and co-founder of the notorious Sinaloa cartel was arrested on Thursday in El Paso, Texas, along with Joaquin Guzmán Lopez, the son of imprisoned cartel boss Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.
The two men are considered to be among the most powerful drug traffickers in Mexico, and this is a major victory for US law enforcement agencies that have hunted figures like Zambada for years.
Attorney General Merrick Garlandsaid the men face “multiple charges” for leading the cartel’s criminal operations, which include “its deadly fentanyl manufacturing and trafficking networks.”
The DEA has directly attributed the deadly synthetic drug crisis in the US, involving substances like fentanyl and methamphetamine, to the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels and their associates.
“Fentanyl is the deadliest drug threat our country has ever faced, and the Justice Department will not rest until every single cartel leader, member, and associate responsible for poisoning our communities is held accountable,” Garland said.
A congressional report earlier this year pointed to fentanyl as the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-45. The opioid crisis is a major political issue in the US and has emerged as a key topic in the 2024 presidential election.
Though these arrests are a win for the Justice Department, experts doubt they will put a major dent in the drug trade — and suggest the arrests could lead to a spike in violence due to infighting that was already prevalent.