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Biden's vigorous SOTU speech aims to prove doubters wrong
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
What's going on with the Biden State of the Union?
So big week in US presidential politics. Super Tuesday basically effectively ended both primaries for the Republicans and the Democrats. We now have two all but official candidates. Joe Biden gave his fourth State of the Union address this week. Big question around Joe Biden, is he up to the task? 75% of Americans say that he is too old to run for a second term, but he is a attempting to prove them wrong like he did last night in Washington with a vigorous speech where he spoke for an hour, which officially kicked off his campaign.
Biden spoke about themes of income inequality, he spoke in favor of aid to Ukraine, and he rolled out a couple of tax increases that Republicans don't like. There's a lot of risk in every public appearance that Biden gives these days because of the fact that Democrats are very concerned that he's going to make a verbal flub or that he's going to look physically frail. That did not happen last night, and I think that's a good sign for Biden for now.
But every time he goes on stage for the rest of the year, there's going to be concern about how old he looks. So the campaign can now begin in earnest. Biden didn't mention Donald Trump by name in the speech, but he did indirectly attack him, talking about how Republicans are the party of the rich and how the threats to democracy represented by this election. At least that's how Joe Biden wants to frame it.
US President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., on March 7, 2024.
Rowdy SOTU sets the tone for 2024
With both parties’ nominees locked in, Thursday’s State of the Union played more like a campaign-rally-cum-stand-up-comedy — complete with crowd work and hecklers.
President Joe Biden took advantage of the bully pulpit to highlight his administration’s successes and contrast them disfavorably with those of his predecessor on everything from economic performance to foreign policy. He did so without once using Donald Trump’s name.
Biden opened by urging Congress to pass weapons aid to Ukraine, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stop there if Kyiv’s defenses falter. He also called out Trump for saying he would let Moscow “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies that don’t meet spending commitments. His message to Putin was simple: “We will not walk away. We will not bow down.”
On the more politically sensitive subject of Gaza, Biden defended Israel’s right to go after Hamas while decrying the humanitarian nightmare that is unfolding there. He announced the construction of a temporary pier in Gaza overseen by the US military that may be able to increase the amount of food entering the enclave amid rising starvation. He promised, however, that there would be no US boots on the ground.
On the domestic front, Biden played to women and middle-class workers, key elements of the electoral coalition he hopes will deliver him a second term in November. He promised to reinstate a constitutional right to abortion and crack down on domestic violence, telling Republicans they had “no clue” about the power of women.
He gave Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers, a shout-out for leading a successful strike last year and pointed to his own union bona fides and record of reviving the US auto industry. Biden will be relying on union voters to secure swing states in the upper Midwest like Michigan and Wisconsin that pushed him over the line against Trump in 2020.
Biden was under pressure to demonstrate vigor. Barring a few gaffes, he gave a strong performance, says Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s director for the United States, but one good night may not be enough.
“A strong delivery won’t substantially change the fact that 73% of voters still see him as too old, and he has to perform nearly flawlessly over the next 8 and a half months to keep age concerns at bay,” he says.
As has become the pattern in recent years, some Republicans in the audience shouted at the president during the speech – and on occasion, the president shouted right back.
“Spirited back and forth exchanges with Republicans in the audience — what would have been headline-grabbing breaks of protocol a decade ago — tonight were just more confirmation that the US is headed into a bare-knuckle fight of a campaign,” says Allen.
President Joe Biden speaks to the press before boarding Air Force One at Hagerstown Regional Airport in Hagerstown, Maryland, on March 5, 2024.
State of the Elephant downstairs
Here are a few things to watch for.
First, does the 81-year-old Biden look all there? Any slips or gaffes will be internet catnip for those who think Biden is too old to be president – a view now shared by 73% of voters. (About 40% say the same about Donald Trump).
Second, what does Biden say about immigration, trade, or climate policy – issues that could directly affect Canada? Ottawa and Washington have squabbled in recent years over the Made in America provisions of Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act.
But most importantly, does Biden make a compelling case for another term? He’s polling poorly despite good data on inflation, crime, wages, and employment. For Biden to pull ahead of Trump, he’ll need to pierce the doom bubble and convince just enough people that he’s a safer option for America’s institutions, economy, and alliances than the Other Guy.
Tonight will be his big shot to do that – can he land it?
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