Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 5, 2025.
Trump freezes aid to South Africa, offers to resettle “refugees”
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday halting all “non-essential” assistance to South Africa. He also ordered American agencies to assist white South Africans fleeing racial discrimination and resettle them as refugees in the US.
What is the basis for these orders? Trump cited Pretoria’s new expropriation policies as well as its anti-Israel stance at the International Court of Justice.
In January, President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Expropriation Act, a law authorizing expropriation with “just and equitable compensation” in most cases but “nil compensation” under special circumstances. The law seeks to reversehistorical land inequality, namely that white Afrikaners, representing 7% of the population, still own 50% of the country’s farmland.
In December 2023, South Africa launched a legal challenge against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of genocide in Gaza.
How has the world responded to Trump’s orders? Ramaphosa blasted them as “propaganda,” saying “We will not be bullied.”As for white South Africans, they appear to be staying put. Trade union chief Dirk Hermann, representing some two million Afrikaners, said “We are committed to build a future here. We are not going anywhere.”Close up of South African flag.
South African leader defends land reform to Elon Musk
Why was the law changed? Even though apartheid ended 30 years ago, and white South Africans are only 7.3% of the population, as of 2017 they still possessed 72% of privately owned farmland. Critics warn, however, that a new expropriation law risks replicating the experience of neighboring Zimbabwe, where seizures of white-owned land in the name of racial equity devastated agricultural productivity and discouraged foreign investment.
This week, Republican US Sen. Ted Cruz said he will use his position as chairman of the Africa subcommittee of the Foreign Relations Committee to “investigate these and other concerning decisions” by South Africa. Cruz also criticized Pretoria’s directive last month to Taiwan that it relocate its Taipei Liaison Office from the capital before the end of March, posting to X that “the South African government seems to be going out of their way to alienate the United States and our allies.” China is South Africa’s largest trading partner and encouraged the country to sever relations with Taiwan in 1997.South African President Cyril Ramaphosa looks on during the 55th annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 21, 2025.
GZERO Explains: Why is Trump fighting South Africa over its land policy?
President Donald Trump has said that he will cut all US funding to South Africa, accusing the government there of confiscating land and “treating certain classes of people very badly,” an allegation South African President Cyril Ramaphosa denies.
What is Trump talking about? Last month, South Africa passed the Expropriation Act, which aims to address severe racial imbalances in land ownership. Thirty years after the fall of Apartheid, three quarters of private farmland is held by whites, who comprise less than 10% of the population. The new act repeals an Apartheid era law that was used to expropriate Black farmers.
What does the bill say? It facilitates the government purchase of unused or abandoned land, provided that “just and equitable” compensation is given. But it also, in the “public interest”, allows land to be expropriated without compensation if the property is abandoned and the landowner can’t be reached, or if it is being used for criminal activity.
What’s the controversy? Critics say this latter provision violates the South African constitution’s protections for private property. AfriForum, a South African lobbying group that acts on behalf of white Afrikaans speakers, recently briefed Trump on the bill. Elon Musk, who hails from South Africa, has also said the bill threatens South Africa’s white minority.
What happens if Trump pulls funding from South Africa? From a geopolitical perspective, “not much,” says Eurasia Group Africa Practice Head Amaka Anku, “the funding in question is about $440 million to South Africa’s HIV program, which is not significant enough to make South Africa retaliate.”
Still, that funding accounts for nearly a fifth of South Africa’s total HIV program funding. In a country with the largest HIV-positive population in the world, the human consequences could be significant.
Rescued miners are seen as they are processed by police after being rescued at the mine shaft where rescue operations are ongoing as attempts are made to rescue illegal miners who have been underground for months, in Stilfontein, South Africa, January 14, 2025.
South African authorities haul dozens of bodies from mine siege
South African police said Wednesday that rescuers had recovered 78 bodies and 246 living miners this week from an abandoned gold mine near Stilfontein, southwest of Johannesburg, that has been the site of a tense siege since August. Hundreds more miners were believed to be hiding underground, but rescue volunteers were unable to locate them.
The miners have been hesitant to leave the mine and have gone for months without natural light, including periods without food and water, because police arrested those who surfaced. Over 1,500 miners have been detained since August, and some have been deported.
Vulnerable migrants. The majority of the arrested miners came from Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho to seek a better life in South Africa. Instead, they were targeted by criminal gangs that took over abandoned commercial mines and forced disadvantaged migrants to risk their lives extracting what little valuable ore remains.
The men in Stilfontein managed to send letters and pictures via an improvised pulley system that friends and family used to send them food and water. Images of emaciated men sitting among what appeared to be the remains of colleagues have shocked the Rainbow Nation, but police say they are determined to crack down on illegal mining.
Political waves. Tackling the heavily armed gangsters who control the mines, however, will be tough. And the siege threatens to upend politics in Johannesburg, where a delicate alliance between the African National Congress and the Democratic Alliance has held together against all expectations since last summer. The DA is calling for an independent inquiry into the mine operation, and we’ll be watching for cracks in the coalition.
Oil tanker SCF Primorye, owned by Russian state shipping company Sovcomflot, transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey, April 29, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Russia’s oil slump, South Africa mine rescue, Somaliland opposition wins election, Japan buys out workers
3.28 million: Russian exports of crude oil fell to an average of 3.28 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to Nov. 17, with shipments from western ports mostly serving Turkey and India falling by nearly 30%. Russia has been trying to restrict flows of oil in coordination with OPEC standards to buoy prices and has pledged further production cuts between March and September of next year.
350: South African authorities are mulling whether to try rescuing at least 350 illegal miners who are hiding in underground shafts at the Stilfontein mine to the southwest of Johannesburg. The miners have remained underground to avoid arrest amid a crackdown on artisanal mining, which is often controlled by gangs. A court order on Monday instructed police to allow those within the mine to leave. Locals say there may be as many as 4,000 miners in the shaft, and authorities are not sure it is safe to send a mission. Some miners have emerged looking frail and malnourished.
63.92: The opposition leader of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahu — better known as “Irro” — won the presidency of the quasi-independent state with 63.92% of the vote, a clear mandate over incumbent Muse Bihi. Irro is promising to boost economic opportunities in Somaliland, especially for women, and hopes to persuade incoming US President Donald Trump to recognize his government independently of Somalia.
9,219: Over four dozen of Japan’s largest companies have paid out 9,219 employees with early retirement and voluntary severance in 2024, roughly triple last year’s numbers. Japanese corporations are historically very reluctant to fire workers, but the yen’s weakness and sluggish growth are forcing companies to streamline with buyouts.Graphic Truth: BRICS economies eclipse the G7
In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.
Five years later, reality imitated art when the countries decided to begin meeting regularly at “BRIC summits,” with the latest occurring in Kazan, Russia, this week. The subsequent inclusion of South Africa upgraded the “s” to a capital letter: the BRICS.
The group, which lacks formal treaties or binding obligations, has always been united more by what it opposes — US dominance of global financial systems — than by what it supports.
After all, it’s a hodgepodge: energy exporters (Brazil and Russia) and importers (China and India), democracies (India and Brazil) and non-democracies (China and Russia), allies (Russia ❤️China) and adversaries (India x China).
But the economic clout of the group is, on paper, formidable. With the addition of Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates this year, the BRICS+ economies account for 36% of global GDP – while the G7 group of wealthy democracies amount to just 29%. But, of course, there’s a catch: China and the US each contribute more than half of their respective group’s GDP.
Here’s a look at the economic size, and breakdown, of the BRICS+ and the G7 group it hopes one day to eclipse — not only economically but also geopolitically.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa interacts with the leader of the opposition party, John Steenhuisen ahead of National Assembly members' questions in parliament in Cape Town, South Africa, November 3, 2022.
Another shot at the Rainbow Nation dream?
This unexpected alliance between South Africa’s long-ruling ANC and the Democratic Alliance has shown early signs of promise. One hundred days into the country’s Government of National Unity – made up of the erstwhile archrivals – voters are more positive about the country’s direction, and investors are bullish about its economic prospects. President Cyril Ramaphosa has even called the GNU South Africa’s “second miracle” – the first being the peaceful transition from apartheid to multiracial democracy in 1994.
Ramaphosa isn’t overplaying it: His African National Congress, once led by Nelson Mandela, campaigns on its history of Black liberation, while the Democratic Alliance is seen as the party of the white minority. Their odd marriage resulted from the ANC losing its parliamentary majority earlier this year – for the first time since 1994. Frustrating coalition talks in June prompted ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula to describe the parties as “oil and water.”
And yet, they’ve made progress. The rand has strengthened 6% against the dollar since July, and the stock market has rallied by 20%. Ramaphosa says South Africa aims to triple its GDP growth to 3% this year.
Saffers are noticing. A 58% majority think the GNU is doing well and – rather incredibly – 62% of Black voters approve of the DA’s job performance (fewer than 5% supported the DA in the election). Some 40% say their country is now on the right track, double the figure from June.
Too early to declare success. Still, the GNU’s ad-hoc style is likely to come up short when tackling the big issues, such as corruption, crime, decrepit infrastructure, and poor energy and water supplies. Daunting, but in the words of Mandela, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”Cyril Ramaphosa attends the oath of office ceremony for his second term as South African President at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, South Africa, 19 June 2024.
South Africa gets a new cabinet
President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled South Africa’s new cabinet on Sunday, ushering in a new era of coalition governance for the Rainbow Nation. The move comes after the African National Congress lost its majority for the first time in 30 years in the May election, forcing Ramphosa’s party to enter a coalition government with its historic rival, the white-majority Democratic Alliance.
Ramaphosa announced that 32 positions were awarded across seven parties. The ANC retains the majority of seats, with 20, and has kept key ministries, including finance, foreign affairs (crucial in allowing continuity in their pro-Palestinian agenda and ICJ case), trade, and defense. The DA, after demanding 11 slots, was only assigned six, including key ministries like education and infrastructure, and DA leader John Steenhuisen was appointed agriculture minister. The remainder were divided among smaller parties.
Absent, but not silent. The uMkhonto weSizwe party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, came in third in the election but refused to join the coalition. The party has since found its voice as the outspoken leader of the Parliament’s opposition alliance.
Tensions remain high. The ANC has been systematically trying to dilute the DA’s influence by expanding the governing coalition to include 10 opposition parties, assigning them minimal portfolios. The difficult negotiations signaled converging economic policies, particularly on health care and Black economic empowerment, as well as deep distrust, with Ramaphosa accusing the DA of attempting to form a “parallel government.”
Will they play nice? As seen by the weeks of deadlocked cabinet negotiations, the parties still struggle to set aside decades of animosity, which could lead to instability, but the ANC and DA – at least for now – are committed to working together. We’ll be watching to see whether the coalition is stable enough to survive Zuma’s dedicated political instigation.