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Cyril Ramaphosa attends the oath of office ceremony for his second term as South African President at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, South Africa, 19 June 2024.
South Africa gets a new cabinet
President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled South Africa’s new cabinet on Sunday, ushering in a new era of coalition governance for the Rainbow Nation. The move comes after the African National Congress lost its majority for the first time in 30 years in the May election, forcing Ramphosa’s party to enter a coalition government with its historic rival, the white-majority Democratic Alliance.
Ramaphosa announced that 32 positions were awarded across seven parties. The ANC retains the majority of seats, with 20, and has kept key ministries, including finance, foreign affairs (crucial in allowing continuity in their pro-Palestinian agenda and ICJ case), trade, and defense. The DA, after demanding 11 slots, was only assigned six, including key ministries like education and infrastructure, and DA leader John Steenhuisen was appointed agriculture minister. The remainder were divided among smaller parties.
Absent, but not silent. The uMkhonto weSizwe party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, came in third in the election but refused to join the coalition. The party has since found its voice as the outspoken leader of the Parliament’s opposition alliance.
Tensions remain high. The ANC has been systematically trying to dilute the DA’s influence by expanding the governing coalition to include 10 opposition parties, assigning them minimal portfolios. The difficult negotiations signaled converging economic policies, particularly on health care and Black economic empowerment, as well as deep distrust, with Ramaphosa accusing the DA of attempting to form a “parallel government.”
Will they play nice? As seen by the weeks of deadlocked cabinet negotiations, the parties still struggle to set aside decades of animosity, which could lead to instability, but the ANC and DA – at least for now – are committed to working together. We’ll be watching to see whether the coalition is stable enough to survive Zuma’s dedicated political instigation.
A worker removes a campaign banner of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa after an African National Congress event ahead of the upcoming elections in Sandton, Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 25, 2024.
South Africa’s landmark election: Will the ANC be out?
Over 50 parties are vying for the votes of the country’s 28 million citizens, but two of them could take South Africa in radically different directions. The first is the country’s main opposition party, the pro-business, mostly white-led, centrist Democratic Alliance. Leader John Steenhuisen has already gathered smaller opposition parties, including the Inkatha Freedom Party, to form the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa, pledging to combine their votes to challenge the ANC to form a government.
The second is the Marxist, Black-led Economic Freedom Fighters party, whose leader, former ANC politician Julius Malema,is calling for the nationalization of the country’s gold and platinum mines and the seizure of land from white farmers. Malema could be a kingmaker should the ANC need third-party support, a scenario Steenhuisen describes as“doomsday” for South Africa.
And while formerPresident Jacob Zuma cannot run in this year’s election due to convictions for corruption, observers see him as another potential kingmaker, wielding power behind the scenes through hisuMkhonto weSizwe Party.
Whatever the result, a coalition government would be inherently unstable. In the view of Eurasia analystZiyanda Stuurman, “I would expect such a government to collapse before the end of its term in 2029, requiring snap elections.”
Supporters of former South African President Jacob Zuma protest outside the Constitutional Court which ruled that Zuma is not eligible to stand for office in the National Assembly, in Johannesburg, South Africa May 20, 2024.
Zuma's disqualification shakes up South Africa's election
Nine days before South Africa’s general election, former President Jacob Zuma was disqualified from running for a parliamentary seat because the constitution prohibits candidates who have served more than 12 months in prison.
Background: Zuma led the ruling African National Congress from 2009 to 2018, before resigning in disgrace amid allegations that his administration was infiltrated by corporate interests. After he was released from his 15-month prison sentence last year, he launched his own uMkhonto WeSizwe party, or MK, which has surprised analysts by polling above 10%. Its gains have mostly been at the expense of the ANC, which is now polling around 46%.
Election impact: Zuma’s party has stood behind its leader, who will still wield influence from the sidelines. Zuma is using the verdict to position himself as a victim of the out-of-touch ANC, a spin that could take votes away from them and boost MK on May 29.
In South Africa, the majority party chooses the president. The ANC is predicted to lose its majority for the first time since apartheid ended 30 years ago. If it gets less than 50% of the vote, it will need to form a coalition – likely with the third-largest party, the Economic Freedom Fighters – to reelect Cyril Ramaphosa for a second and final term.