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Bolivia's former President Evo Morales speaks during a press conference, in Cochabamba, Bolivia October 4, 2024.
Did Bolivia’s ex-president stage an assassination … on himself?
The day after former Bolivian President Evo Morales claimed to have survived an attempt on his life on Sunday, Interior Minister Eduardo de Castillo accused Morales of staging an attempt on his own life. Morales, for his part, claims the government attempted to kill him amid a massive power struggle that has divided the ruling party.
What does each side claim? Morales said in a radio interview that a convoy carrying him through Chapare — a rural bastion of both Morales voters and coca production — was stopped by masked men with weapons who shot at his car and wounded his driver before the convoy fled.
De Castillo, on the other hand, said in a news conference that Morales’ car had failed to stop at a drug checkpoint and ran over a police officer while attempting to flee, leading to a chase and small arms fire.
What’s the beef? Morales is technically from the same Movement Toward Socialism party that currently holds power in La Paz, but he and his erstwhile protegé, President Luis Arce, are in a bitter feud. Both men want to stand for election as president next year, but Morales has been found ineligible by the constitutional court (not that this will stop him).
We’re watching for more clarity about what really went down, and whether Morales still commands the populist charm that kept him in office from 2006-2013.
Ian Explains: What's so radical about Argentina's new president (besides his cloned dogs)?
Argentina's new libertarian president, Javier Milei, is not like other Argentine presidents. He's not like anyone else, for that matter. But it's not his penchant for dressing up as a superhero and singing about fiscal policy that sets him apart. Nor is it his cloned dogs or bombastic approach to politics. Six months into his first year in office, it's his radical plan to save Argentina's economy that's truly radical. And here's the thing...so far it seems to be working.
Despite living in one of the largest and most resource-rich nations in Latin America, the average Argentine has endured one economic calamity after another. Milei has vowed to put an end to what he refers to as "100 years of decadence. But can he pull it off?
The self-proclaimed tantric sex guru with a mop of unruly black hair that he claims the invisible hand of the free market keeps in place campaigned for president last year by promising to take a chainsaw literally to government spending and to eliminate Argentina's Central Bank. He also derided climate change as a socialist conspiracy. He called the Argentine compatriot Pope Francis a "leftist S.O.B." He's known universally in Argentina as El Loco or the madman. And then back in November, he won the election in a landslide.
When he won, many experts expected that Milei's self-styled, anarcho-capitalism would be the death knell for an economy already in free fall. But after taking office in December, Argentina's 300% annual inflation slowed for five months in a row. His government did this by turning the 5.5% budget deficit that it inherited into the country's first surplus in over a decade. And all without destabilizing their currency and their financial markets.
But while Milei's shock therapy has been successful at balancing the budget and slowing inflation, the fiscal and monetary austerity has caused a deep recession, with economic activity shrinking almost 10% year-on-year back in March, unemployment rising, real salaries in Argentina hitting their lowest points since 2003. Mass protests against budget cuts to public universities back in June drew more than 400,000 people to the streets.
Can Milei save Argentina's economy before he destroys it?
Watch Ian's exclusive interview with Javier Milei on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: Subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Argentina's radical new president, Javier Milei (Exclusive interview)
In an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer for the latest episode of GZERO World, Argentine President Javier Milei defends his radical approach to saving Argentina’s struggling economy, his commitment to aligning with liberal democracies, and his pragmatic stance on international trade and alliances.
There's no getting around it: Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, is an odd duck. But beyond his penchant for cloned dogs, messy hair, and bombast, what’s truly radical about the South American leader is his plan to save Argentina’s economy. When he ran for office, the economics professor-turned-TV pundit-turned-presidential-candidate vowed to eliminate Argentina’s central bank and threatened to replace the Argentine peso with the American dollar. But once he came to office, a more pragmatic approach to economic reform emerged. And in just six months, his administration has managed to slow Argentina's 300% annual inflation and turn a budget deficit into a surplus. "We have actually completed the largest reform in the history of Argentina," he proudly tells Ian Bremmer in an exclusive new interview for GZERO World, highlighting the scale of his efforts to overturn what he calls "100 years of decadence."
(Note: Turn on closed captions for translation from Spanish to English or your preferred language.)
Milei's libertarian economic policies, although effective in some respects, have also led to significant hardships. "Life is going to be harder for the average Argentinian citizen," he acknowledges. Despite these challenges, Milei's popularity remains high, attributed to his honesty and transparency with the public.
In a wide-ranging interview with Bremmer, Milei also explains that his approach to foreign policy is marked by a mix of ideological commitment and pragmatic flexibility. He champions free trade and economic liberalization while acknowledging the complexities of dealing with autocratic regimes. "The world should be separated between liberal democracies and autocracies," Milei asserts. Yet, he does not shy away from engaging with China, recognizing the economic benefits such relationships can bring. "If I were to limit that trade, which is free, would Argentines be better off or worse off?" he asks Bremmer, advocating for a balanced approach that prioritizes Argentina's well-being.
Milei's staunch support for Israel is another defining aspect of his foreign policy. When Ian asks him about the Gaza war, his answer is simple and unwavering. "I will continue to support Israel right to the end."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei gestures during the closing event of his electoral campaign ahead of the November 19 runoff election, in Cordoba, Argentina, November 16, 2023.
Milei’s win raises pressure for completion of EU-Latin America trade deal
Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election could rapidly accelerate negotiations for a trade treaty between the Mercosur trade bloc and the EU. Milei, a self-declared anarcho-capitalist, vowed to pull Argentina from Mercosur altogether if he won. His victory raises questions about the future of the bloc and talks surrounding the treaty.
A trade pact between the bloc — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay — and the EU has been in the works for years, and the two sides reached an agreement in principle in 2019. But talks have been stalled ever since thanks to disagreements over environmental commitments pushed by the EU.
The Milei effect: There now appears to be a mad dash to complete an agreement before Argentina inaugurates Milei, a far-right libertarian who’s drawn comparisons to former US President Donald Trump. Diplomats involved in the negotiations told the Financial Times they’re hoping to wrap things up by early December.
“The talks are moving ahead fast,” a Brazilian official taking part in the negotiations told Reuters.
As a climate-change denier, the Argentine president-elect could complicate negotiations on environmentally related matters. While it would be tough to finalize the deal before his inauguration, this might be the incentive all parties need to get to the finish line. We’ll be watching to see whether they can reach a deal before Milei takes office on Dec. 10.
FILE PHOTO: Guyanese Military members line up before Britain's Prince Harry laughs arrives for an official visit of Georgetown, Guyana December 2, 2016.
Venezuela and Guyana border dispute
As if Europe’s colonial-era mapmakers haven’t already bequeathed us enough wars. Now the long-running border dispute between Venezuela and its eastern neighbor Guyana is heating up again.
Guyana says Venezuela is sending troops to the frontier, while Caracas says Venezuelan voters will get to decide unilaterally whether to annex Guyanese territory.
At issue: The western two-thirds of Guyana, known as Essequibo, is a jungle terrain inhabited by 250,000 people. The dispute began with a 19th century map that gave the region to Guyana — at the time a British colonial possession — rather than to Venezuela, which maintained earlier Spanish claims to the area. Several international efforts to resolve the dispute since then have failed, and the issue is currently before the International Court of Justice.
But Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro rejects the court’s jurisdiction. He plans instead to put the question of annexation to Venezuelan voters in a plebiscite on Dec. 3.
Why now? Because there’s oil there, lots of it, following massive discoveries by ExxonMobil over the past decade. Maduro has his eye on those reserves, which would bring Guyana’s 800,000 citizens one of the swiftest windfalls of oil wealth in history.
But he may also be playing domestic politics. He recently tried to tar the Venezuelan opposition as national traitors for supposedly advancing a US-backed plan to scuttle the vote — an assertion the opposition vociferously denied.
Los Yanquis are in the area. Any forceful attempts to seize Guyanese territory could spark a crisis that quickly draws in the United States — since 2020, Washington has run joint naval patrols with Guyana.
A group of demonstrators burns an image of the Prime Minister of Israel, BENJAMÍN NETANYAHU, during a protest in front of the Israel Embassy in Santiago, Chile, for his military actions in Gaza.
South American countries recall Israel envoys over Gaza
Colombia and Chile recalled their ambassadors to Israel, and Bolivia severed relations with the country entirely in reaction to the scorched-earth tactics used by Israeli forces in Gaza. All three governments fall under a left-wing tradition in Latin America that is heavily pro-Palestinian.
Bolivia has historically terrible relations with Israel, and the move is no surprise. Left-wing icon and former President Evo Morales first severed ties in 2009 after Israel invaded Gaza in late December 2008, and he praised sitting President (and protegé-turned-rival) Luis Arce’s decision.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro was formerly a member of the M-19 guerillas, a radical left-wing group that terrorized urban areas before demobilizing in 1991. He’s pushed the boundaries of decency in his condemnations of Israel, going so far as to liken the country’s actions to those of Hitler and the Third Reich.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric, less radical than Petro or Arce, has nevertheless been unequivocal in his criticism of Israel’s operations in Gaza while still condemning Hamas’ terrorist atrocities and pledging to work toward a two-state solution.
Colombia and Chile also have large ethnic Arab minorities, which tends to lend weight to discourse over Middle Eastern issues, but isn’t the proximate cause of the current spat. Up to 3.2 million Colombians are of Arab descent (ever heard of Shakira?). They’re mostly Lebanese but include around 100,000 people of Palestinian heritage.
Meanwhile, Chile is believed to have the largest Palestinian diaspora outside the Middle East, with up to 500,000 members. The community has tended to prosper, and remains visible in public life: The Club Deportivo Palestino plays in the colors of the Palestinian flag and has twice won Chile’s top-tier soccer league. Legislators of Palestinian descent have a caucus in Congress, and Chile has been an observer in the Arab League since 2005.
Supporters of Argentina's presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio party attend the closing event of her electoral campaign ahead of the October 22 general election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina October 19, 2023.
Argentina’s wild presidential election
Argentines will vote on Sunday in the country’s most unpredictable, topsy-turvy election in recent memory.
The leading candidate is shaggy-haired firebrand Javier Milei, a social-media-savvy political outsider who describes himself as an “anarcho-capitalist.” Milei wants to radically shrink the government, adopt the US dollar, and ban sex education.
His more colorful proposals include legalizing the sale of human organs and converting to Judaism. Milei came in first in a presidential primary in August and is currently polling above 35%.
Argentines are fed up. Milei’s popularity, especially with younger voters, arises from widespread frustration with the established parties – and it’s not hard to understand why. Argentina is suffering through its worst economic crisis in decades: Inflation has topped 120%, three out of five Argentines now live in poverty, and the peso is one of the worst-performing currencies in the world.
“Milei has been able to capture this disenchantment as he lashes out at all political parties,” says Luciano Sigalov, an Argentina expert at Eurasia Group.
Ironically, Milei’s pledge to dollarize the economy has contributed to an even greater selloff of the peso, adding to precisely the economic woes that have helped to make him the frontrunner.
“His dollarization proposals sound increasingly attractive to many who see the value of their pesos rapidly evaporating,” Sigalov points out.
But Milei isn’t the only show in town. There are two other formidable candidates:
Former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich. She has built her campaign around a promise to “restore order” and is polling at 29%. Although Argentina’s homicide rate is one of the lowest in Latin America, several high-profile instances of violence by drug gangs in the port city of Rosario — one of which included a threat to soccer legend Lionel Messi — have put public safety on the ballot.
Economy Minister Sergio Massa. The candidate of the currently governing Peronist coalition is polling at 26%. As a moderate and technocratic voice within typically left-wing Peronism, Massa is seen as a safe pair of hands who has credibility with the private sector and has strong support from his own coalition.
The election rules are complicated. To win outright, the top candidate must get at least 45% of the vote OR must surpass the runner-up by at least 10 points. So, for example, you can win with 42%, but only if the runner-up has 32% or less.
If no one is able to meet either of these conditions, then the top two finishers will head to a runoff on Nov. 19.
A demonstrator holds up a model depicting a Chilean constitution book that reads 'The new Kastitucion' in a play on the word 'Constitution' and the name of far right-wing politician Jose Antonio Kast, while protesting against ongoing Constitutional process lead by right-wing parties, in Santiago, Chile, October 3, 2023.
Chile’s constitutional efforts look doomed, again
Chile is in the tortuous process of drafting a new constitution to replace one drafted by its former military dictator. A new draft reads like a partisan wishlist – just like the left-leaning document voters rejected last year – but this time the far-right holds the pen.
On Wednesday, the body attempting to hammer out a new constitution for Chile submitted its official proposals, which will now be reviewed by an expert panel. The draft limits the rights of workers to strike, guarantees to swiftly expel undocumented migrants, curbs abortion rights, and includes provisions supporting private pensions, schools, and healthcare systems.
It’s far from the moderate document Chilean President Gabriel Boric hoped would emerge from this second bite at the chirimoya.
Some background: In 2019, famously stable Chile was rocked by a series of protests known as the estallido social (roughly, “social outburst”), of which a key demand was a new constitution to replace the one authored by the military junta of Gen. Augusto Pinochet in 1980.
In 2020, Boric — then just a lower-house member — played a key role in organizing the plebiscite in which an astounding 80% of Chileans voted in favor of writing a new constitution. It catapulted him to national fame, and in March 2022, the presidency.
But the first constitutional convention became bogged down in ideology, producing an ambitious and left-leaning draft that spooked middle-class Chileans. Voters roundly rejected it last September, but Boric didn’t feel he could just let the matter die. He attempted to continue the overhaul, but with a process supervised by Congressionally appointed experts to tamp down ideology.
It didn’t work. Boric’s left-leaning coalition took just 17 of the 51 seats in the constitutional assembly after May 2023 elections. Concerned by rising crime and a sluggish economy, voters elected the far-right Republicans to 22 seats, and they easily dominated the assembly in a supermajoritarian coalition alongside conventional right-wing parties.
But Chileans don’t appear happy with the prospect of a right-wing constitution either. Just 24% of voters plan to vote for the draft constitution so far.
The constitutional assembly will have a final chance to make changes after receiving expert comments, opening a slim chance for moderation before the plebiscite in December. Should Chileans reject this draft, they’ll be stuck with the Pinochet version, as Boric has made clear he’s now done with constitutional conventions.
The constitutional reform process has dominated political discourse for four years, while ordinary Chileans dealt with COVID-19, economic instability, and spiking crime and violence. Who will be satisfied if it all comes to naught?