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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a joint press conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae Yul following their talks in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2025.
South Korean authorities get extension to Yoon arrest warrant
South Korean anti-corruption authorities reached a deal with police to extend their warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday after failing to arrest him on Friday. A six-hour standoff with presidential security in the official residence amounted to nothing, and the corruption investigators have asked the National Police Agency to take over the responsibility of detaining Yoon. Authorities have not disclosed the new extension's expiration date.
Police are in uncharted waters, however, as no previous South Korean president has been arrested before being removed from office. Yoon was impeached in December, but vacancies on the constitutional court have prevented his official removal. Meanwhile, his party is playing for time – hoping to stall long enough to allow the high court to rule on a case that could render the opposition leader ineligible to run in elections to replace Yoon.
The gridlock is starting to chafe allies, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had expressed “serious concerns” during talks in Seoul with his counterpart on Monday. But Blinken also praised the strong response of South Korean institutions to Yoon’s attempt to seize power through martial law.
North Korea, which has taken a cautious approach thus far amid Seoul’s domestic upheaval, used Blinken’s visit as an opportunity to test a medium-range missile with a supposedly hypersonic capacity. We’re watching how Pyongyang approaches potential provocations once the Biden administration leaves the scene.
Police vans are lined up in front of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's official residence in Seoul on Jan. 3, 2025.
Authorities try to arrest impeached South Korean president
While reports indicated that officers were able to enter the building, they were stopped from executing the warrant by a military unit.
South Korea has sent multiple presidents to jail following their terms — in fact, two of the three presidents immediately before Yoon served time. But this arrest is unorthodox, says Eurasia Groupexpert Jeremy Chan. Usually, presidents have left office, either through impeachment or the end of their terms, before they are investigated on criminal charges.
“Yoon is a former public prosecutor who knows how to use the legal system,” says Chan. “His supporters are also rallying behind his claims that the insurrection investigation is invalid, further complicating efforts to seek his arrest.”
“The urgency with which the investigators have sought a warrant for Yoon's detention has also fed perceptions that politics rather than legal processes are to blame,” Chan adds.
Yoon has not yet been removed by the court because three of its seats were vacant. Former acting President Han Duck-soo refused to confirm their replacements, which led to him being impeached too, and his replacement agreed earlier this week to nominate for two of the three vacancies.
“Yoon will likely live to fight another day,” says Chan. But the Constitutional Court is also holding its second preparatory hearing for Yoon's impeachment trial on Friday. With eight justices, it is only a matter of time before the court rules to uphold the impeachment motion and formally remove Yoon from office.
“Today's standoff will likely only accelerate the urgency with which the court will proceed in making a ruling on the impeachment motion.”
Demonstrators opposing the court's approval of an arrest warrant for impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol protest outside his official residence in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 31, 2024.
South Korea calls for arrest of former president
South Korea’s political drama continues into 2025 after the issuance ofan unprecedented arrest warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon ignored three summonses to appear for questioning over the past two weeks on charges of insurrection and abuse of power. The charges stem from Yoon’s short-liveddeclaration of martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, over what he deemed “anti-state forces” and obstructionism by opposition rivals.
Since then, South Korea has impeached two presidents, including Yoon, and threatened to impeach its finance minister, new acting President Choi Sang-mok. But on Tuesday, Choi appointed two justices to the Constitutional Court, making it less likely that he’ll face the chop. Now there are eight sitting justices, and only six are required to uphold Yoon’s impeachment. This, says Eurasia Group regional expert Jeremy Chan, means the ruling will likely be made by March.
The turmoil comes at a fraught time, as the country faces increased belligerence from North Korea, which is growing ever closer to Russia. South Korea is also reeling from Sunday’s Jeju Air crash landing at Muan International Airport, which killed 179 passengers.
What happens now? Yoon has until Jan. 3 to surrender voluntarily, but his legal team says it will challenge the warrant. Yoon’s allies say he will also fight the underlying charges, and his supporters have organized protests against what they call a politically motivated prosecution.
Oh Dong-woon, head of South Korea’s Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials, warned that the arrest warrant against Yoon would be executed by Jan. 6, and that anyone seeking to block Yoon’s arrest could be prosecuted.
“Yoon will continue to defend the legitimacy of imposing martial law as a presidential prerogative while fighting against a separate criminal investigation into his actions,” says Chan. “He is nevertheless likely to face a lengthy imprisonment along with the officials who helped him plan and execute the martial law order.”
Han Duck-soo, now the acting South Korean prime minister, gives a speech during the opening ceremony of the AI Global Forum in Seoul, South Korea, on May 22, 2024.
South Korea: Guy who replaced the impeached guy gets impeached
This story gets wilder by the day. On Friday, less than two weeks after President Yoon Suk Yeol was stripped of his duties for attempting to impose martial law, the opposition impeached his successor, Yoon’s fellow People Party member Han Duck-soo.
Why? Yoon’s impeachment becomes official only when confirmed by the Constitutional Court. But at the moment three of the court’s nine seats are vacant, meaning a single dissenting vote would overturn Yoon’s removal.
The opposition Democratic party wanted acting president Han to appoint new justices, but he refused to do so unless it was part of a broader agreement between his party and the opposition. The opposition said this showed he was incapable of “upholding the constitution” and filed papers to impeach him.
Increasing tensions, National Assembly speaker Woo Won-shik announced that only 151 votes were needed to pass the impeachment vote — not 200 like they needed to impeach Yoon.
The measure passed with 192 votes on Friday, but it has prompted protests from ruling party lawmakers who say the impeachment vote was an “abuse of power” — and they, in turn, want the speaker to resign.
Once Han is officially notified by parliament of the impeachment, he will be suspended, and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok is set to replace him.
So South Korea’s most bizarre and explosive political crisis in decades just got even weirder.
Ukrainian Armed Forces are deployed in the middle of the conflict with Russia on December 16, 2024. Ukraine claims that Russia has begun sending North Korean soldiers en masse to assaults in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces repel daily Russian attacks and control important areas.
North Korea preparing to send more troops to Russia as casualties rise, says Seoul
South Korean military officials said Monday that they had detected North Korean preparations to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia, and elaborated that at least 100 of Pyongyang’s soldiers had been killed and 1,000 more wounded so far, while Ukrainians claim 200 have died and nearly 3,000 had been wounded. If Seoul’s estimates are accurate, that would mean approximately one out of every ten troops dispatched since late October has already taken a wound or died.
The high casualty figures may stem from lack of battlefield experience and modern equipment, as North Korean units embedded with Russian peers attempt to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk region. It isn’t dampening Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s enthusiasm for cooperating with Russia, however, with the South Korean military claiming he has developed new suicide drones to send to the battlefront. US intelligence agencies said Monday that they believe North Korea offered Russia its troops, rather than the request originating in Moscow, in expectation of help with defense technology and political backing on the world stage.
Watch out for a nasty New Year’s gift, too. Seoul says Pyongyang may attempt to test a hypersonic missile in late December or early January. Just ahead of a presidential transition in the US, and with chaos in South Korean politics caused by impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law on Dec. 3, don’t hold your breath for a strong response.South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers an address to the nation at the Presidential Office in Seoul, South Korea, December 12, 2024.
South Korean president’s removal slows down over court vacancies
On Tuesday, the floor leader for South Korea’s newly-impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol’s party said it would be inappropriate to fill vacancies on the constitutional court with the powers of an acting president, setting up a fight aimed at slow-rolling Yoon’s final removal from office.
Wait, how is Yoon impeached but not gone? It’s a two-step process. The National Assembly was able to clear the two-thirds supermajority to impeach Yoon on Saturday, and he was immediately suspended from office. Now at least six justices on the constitutional court need to approve the legality of the impeachment — and this isn’t a given. The court overturned the much more controversial impeachment of former President Roh Moo-hyun in 2004. Once that hurdle is cleared, Yoon is gone for good, and a sixty day clock starts ticking down to fresh elections.
There’s just one problem. Three of the court’s nine seats are vacant, meaning the entire bench would need to vote unanimously to remove Yoon. Even though the facts are pretty stacked against Yoon, just one justice could theoretically put him back in office, which is why the liberal opposition wants to fill the three seats.
Ideally, as quickly as possible, because their leader, and presumptive presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung is in legal hot water of his own. He was convicted of violating election laws and handed a one-year suspended sentence in November, which could prevent him from running for president — if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling.
Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the opposition “recognizes that the longer this drags out, the greater the chances that the Supreme Court will have time to rule on Lee’s conviction,” and possibly keep him out of the race. We’re watching how acting president Han Duck-soo handles the vacancies, as well as how the criminal case against Yoon and his collaborators proceeds.
What's next for South Korea after President Yoon's impeachment?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. The South Korean President, Yoon Suk Yeol has been impeached. Second time the charm, the first time his own party didn't go ahead with it because they wanted to give him the opportunity to resign, himself. He chose not to, shredding what little was remaining of his own personal and political legacy, and now he's out. The party itself basically freed the members of the party to vote their conscience, and many of them did, and that's it. He's now a former president. There's a caretaker government coming in with the prime minister in charge. South Korea's in disarray. They don't have a president. They don't have a minister of interior. They don't have a minister of defense. They don't have a minister of justice. Everything's not occupied and going to have to be, "acting," for a matter of months.
First, you've got to get the constitutional court to rule on this, and that will happen. But there are three absentees that need to be appointed there. Hopefully that all gets done within a matter of weeks, a couple of months, and then after that, when it's upheld the impeachment, then you'll have new elections in a couple of months.
So, I mean, first the bad news. The bad news is that this was a disgrace. It was an active subversion of the South Korean constitution or attempt thereof, and their checks and balances on their president and his approval ratings as he's forced out in the single digits, we're talking Peru president levels almost, at this point. It comes at a bad time. The Japanese have a weak government in coalition, and the United States has a new president coming in with much stronger consolidated power. So if you're South Korea and you need to formulate a response to dealing with America First demands, to spend more money on American troops on the ground, demands to do more, to redress what's seen as a trade imbalance by the incoming President-elect. All of that is really hard to do when you don't have an effective government. That's the bad news.
The good news is that the system worked the way it was supposed to, and both the military, and the judiciary, and the constitutional court, and the parliament, everyone is acting to contain behavior that is off the rails by a sitting executive. And that shows that South Korean democracy is very much functional and representative of its people, much like nearly all of the advanced industrial democracies. The US is the country that is the outlier here. South Korea, not so surprising.
Another piece of bad news is that it's almost certain that the winner, the incoming winner of the next presidential election will be the Democratic Party of Korea, which got the majority in parliament in the last parliamentary elections. And their leader, Lee Jae-myung is frankly not much more popular than outgoing Yoon. It's going to be, he's had his own scandals, electoral scandals that could potentially bring him down depending on how the court, the Supreme Court rules, assuming that that doesn't happen. If it did, it would cause massive instability and lots of people out on the streets demonstrating and the rest. But if that didn't happen, then he's going to be the leader of South Korea and he'll be again, a very weak leader. It'll also be a very weak leader leading the country in a very different direction. This is a party that will actively support the Sunshine policy with North Korea, very different than outgoing former President Yoon. Would support closer ties with their leading trade partner, China. Would question the rapprochement with Japan and would also question a stronger relationship with their defense partner and ally, the United States. So a lot of uncertainty going forward with South Korea.
One other really interesting thing about this whole saga is the role that AI played. Yoon, a deeply unpopular kind of anti-social figure. Very brusque, not an obvious retail politician, but on the campaign trail, developed an AI essentially deep fake Yoon that was training on a lot of his speeches, but better looking and more engaging and more social, and was used extensively on the campaign trail, both to talk about his policies, to engage with individual voters, to hurl insults at the opposition, and even to engage socially. And this was, I mean, AI Yoon was a lot more popular than actual Yoon, and a big piece of why it was that he ended up being elected president. Unfortunately, AI Yoon was not the president that the South Koreans got. They got actual Yoon who turned out to be possibly even less capable than AI Yoon, and we are all very happy to see the back of him.
So that's pretty much the end of this crazy little few-week saga in South Korean politics. We now bring you back to our regularly scheduled program.
FILE PHOTO: South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol speaks on the government budget at the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, 25 October 2022.
K-Drama continues as Yoon defies summons
South Korea’s rogue President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached on Saturday and is now facing charges of insurrection – but will he show up for trial?
Yoon failed to appear in court Sunday after receiving a summons from prosecutors investigating him and senior officials for abuse of authority and obstructing rights. Then, when investigators attempted to serve him a request for questioning regarding the insurrection charges on Monday, his office refused to accept it.
The charges stem from Yoon’s shock invocation of martial law December 3 - a decree that was overturned a mere six hours later. Yoon’s powers have since been suspended until the constitutional court confirms the legality of his impeachment.
What happens next? The court began deliberations on Monday, with a ruling expected within 180 days, but a decision could come sooner based on the impeachments of previous South Korean leaders. If Yoon is dismissed, a national election must be held within 60 days. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, seen as the frontrunner to replace Yoon, proposed a special council for policy cooperation between the government and parliament and called for a quick resolution “to minimize national confusion and the suffering of the people.”
Based on this Saturday’s giant dance party in Seoul following the impeachment, however, it doesn’t seem that South Koreans are that upset. Thousands braved the bitter cold and took to the streets to celebrate, after a vote the previous weekend failed to garner enough support.