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A Philippine coast guard vessel and a Chinese coast guard vessel sail next to each other during an incident where the Philippines and China accused each other of ramming vessels and performing dangerous manoeuvres, at a location given as the South China Sea, in this screen grab obtained obtained from a handout video released August 19, 2024.
China and the Philippines play a dangerous game of bumper boats
On Sunday, Filipino and Chinese vessels collided for the second time in a week at the Sabina Shoal, a disputed area of the South China Sea. This latest clash occurred less than a month after Manila and Beijing signed a deal meant to avoid confrontation and escalation risk around the South Thomas Shoal. Chinese forces also fired flares at an airplane from Manila’s fisheries regulation agency on Saturday, and a Chinese fighter jet buzzed the same plane on Aug. 19.
Why the flare-up? The proximate cause seems to be Manila’s deployment of a coast guard ship to the waters around Sabina Shoal, an uninhabitable reef well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. But Beijing still claims “indisputable” sovereignty there and may be worried about Manila attempting to set up some sort of semi-permanent base, as it did on the South Thomas Shoal by beaching an old ship on the rocks in 1999.
Beijing and Manila both recognize the risks of testing each other’s boundaries — and Washington has been clear it will back its longstanding ally if called upon to protect it from China. Even so, Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the likelihood of the invocation of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty “is quite low, as the actions by the China coast guard vessels do not rise to the level of a ‘direct attack’ on a Philippine vessel and no injuries have been reported by either side.” It also means Beijing is “steering clear of the red lines established by Philippine President Marcos, and Manila has little interest in escalating tensions in the near term,” Chan adds.Chinese sailors armed with axes and machetes threaten Filipino sailors on a supply run, 17 June, 2024.
Marcos cools temperature in South China Sea
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attempted to de-escalate tensions between Manila and Beijing this Saturday following last week’s violent maritime confrontation during a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese forces last Monday rammed Philippine navy boats, confiscated rifles and inflatable craft, and attacked sailors with axes and machetes.Five seamen were treated for injuries including one who lost a thumb.
“We are not in the business of instigating wars,” Marcos said at a ceremony awarding medals to soldiers involved in the mission, but added: “We will never be intimidated or oppressed by anyone.”
Marcos refused to invoke his country’s 1951 mutual defense treaty with the US,which condemned China’s actions, as did the European Union, Japan, Australia, and other Western and Asian nations. Washington has made it clear to Beijing thatthe treaty requires it to defend Philippine forces if they are attacked.
In what some are calling a concession to China, Marcos also approved a recommendation by the Philippine National Maritime Council to publicize the navy’s schedule for supply runs to the Shoal. Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin suggested that China’s lack of prior knowledge about the latest missionmay have triggered the confrontation. We’ll be watching whether improved communication can keep a lid on Beijing’s aggression in the area.FILE PHOTO: Chinese Coast Guard vessels fire water cannons towards a Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4 on its way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024.
Another standoff in the South China Sea
On Saturday, a Chinese coast guard vessel blocked two Philippine government ships near the country’s coast forover eight hours. The incident occurred at the boundary of the nine-dash line, a demarcation Beijing uses to assert its claims to the waters butwhich was dismissed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016.
This latest dustup appears to be Beijing’s response to last week’s high-profile Washington summit between US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines.The three leaders expressed “serious concerns about the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) dangerous and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” and Marcos Jr. stressed the trilateral relationship would “change the dynamic” in the region.
“Any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels, or armed forces in the South China Sea will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty,” Biden said.
Beijing has already engaged in risky blockings and using water-cannon attacks that have injured sailors. The Philippines has become increasingly vocal about its sovereignty claims, especially around strategic areas including Second Thomas Shoal, a point of recurring friction between Philippine forces and the Chinese Coast Guard. On Thursday, China’s foreign ministry accused Marcos of reneging on a bilateral understanding on the Second Thomas Shoal issue, setting the scene for Saturday’s standoff – and, no doubt, more to come in future.