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Royal Canadian Mounted Police Commissioner Mike Duheme takes part in a press conference about India-linked criminal activity occurring in Canada, in Ottawa, Ontario, October 14, 2024.
India and Canada expel diplomats in deepening criminal scandal
Canadian authorities declared India’s High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma a persona non grata note on Monday, expelling him and five other diplomats from their posts over allegations they were part of a criminal network harassing Canadian Sikhs. New Delhi retaliated by expelling six Canadian diplomats, including Ottawa’s second-in-command in the subcontinent, Stewart Wheeler.
The dispute dramatically burst onto the scene following the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar last year, which led to the arrest and indictment of three Indian nationals. Canada has found itself somewhat isolated from its friends amid the dispute, as the US and European Union attempt to cultivate friendship with India as a counterbalance to Russia and China.
Eurasia Group Senior Analyst Graeme Thompson says the Canadian Royal Mounted Police likely feel confident in the evidence they have collected against India’s diplomats to comment publicly on such a sensitive issue.
“The big question is whether the dispute will be contained to diplomatic tit-for-tat exclusions, or if visa restrictions or other measures affecting business and other people-to-people ties could follow,” he says. “It will also be very interesting to see what, if any, comment US officials make publicly about these developments, which could indicate how the US is handling the dispute behind the scenes.”
Who are the Sikhs, and why is India allegedly going after them? The Sikh religion emerged from the teachings of Guru Nanak in the late 15th century, and its corps of mighty Khalsa warriors carved out an independent empire in what is now northern India and Pakistan between 1799 and 1849. Some Sikhs today still agitate for an independent state of Khalistan, which New Delhi considers a threat to its sovereignty. Canada, home to the largest Sikh community outside India, has found itself in the crossfire.FILE PHOTO: Chinese Coast Guard vessels fire water cannons towards a Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4 on its way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024.
Another standoff in the South China Sea
On Saturday, a Chinese coast guard vessel blocked two Philippine government ships near the country’s coast forover eight hours. The incident occurred at the boundary of the nine-dash line, a demarcation Beijing uses to assert its claims to the waters butwhich was dismissed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016.
This latest dustup appears to be Beijing’s response to last week’s high-profile Washington summit between US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines.The three leaders expressed “serious concerns about the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) dangerous and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” and Marcos Jr. stressed the trilateral relationship would “change the dynamic” in the region.
“Any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels, or armed forces in the South China Sea will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty,” Biden said.
Beijing has already engaged in risky blockings and using water-cannon attacks that have injured sailors. The Philippines has become increasingly vocal about its sovereignty claims, especially around strategic areas including Second Thomas Shoal, a point of recurring friction between Philippine forces and the Chinese Coast Guard. On Thursday, China’s foreign ministry accused Marcos of reneging on a bilateral understanding on the Second Thomas Shoal issue, setting the scene for Saturday’s standoff – and, no doubt, more to come in future.Handout photo dated January 26, 2023 shows Air Force 33rd Search and Rescue Squadron preparing to land aboard an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG 65) in the Philippine Sea.
After China pretends to invade Taiwan, US & Philippines rehearse war against ... China
The US and the Philippines have held annual Balikatan (shoulder to shoulder) joint military drills since 1991. But this year's exercise is a bigger deal than usual.
For one thing, the drills — which kicked off Tuesday — involve more than 17,000 troops from the two countries, making them the largest ever. For another, they are partly being held in disputed waters in the South China Sea — claimed almost entirely by Beijing and partly by Manila.
More importantly, the war games come on the heels of China's own military muscle-flexing near Taiwan,rehearsing an invasion of the self-ruled island as payback for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's hangout with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
For the US — which rejects Beijing’s expanded maritime sovereignty — the drills aim to send China a clear message: We will defend our allies as you move to militarize the South China Sea.
What’s more, Uncle Sam wants the region to remain free for navigation and seaborne trade. That’s why the US Navy patrols the disputed waters despite the risk of running into Chinese “research” vessels.
But for China, the exercises are proof that the Americans are pushing the Filipinos to help them contain Chinese military power in the region. (For the first time, this year’s war games feature target practice on a mock fishing boat, Beijing’s shadow navy of "little blue men" in the disputed waters.)
The odd man out is the Philippines, once again left walking a tightrope between the US and China.
Since his May 2022 election, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — having seen the writing on the wall of rising anti-China sentiment among Filipinos under Rodrigo Duterte, his pro-China predecessor — has been inching closer to Washington. One important recent gesture was granting the US military access to army camps in the northern part of the archipelago, very close to Taiwan.
Yet, Marcos previously made a much-publicized visit to China, the Philippines’ top trading partner and source of foreign investment. The upshot is that with a weak economy and an even weaker military, the country can't afford to lose either the US security umbrella or the ability to do biz with China.
Meanwhile, the South China Sea remains a flashpoint for great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific. And growing US-China tensions over Taiwan will only raise the stakes in the future.