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From left to right, the presidents of Russia (Vladimir Putin), Iranian (Ebrahim Raisi), and Turkey (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) hold talks in Tehran.
What We're Watching: Tehran trilateral, EU food jitters, Sri Lankan presidential vote
Putin, Raisi & Erdogan in Tehran: friends with differences
Leaving the former Soviet region for the first time since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Tehran on Tuesday with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts. The conflict in Syria, where Russia and Iran are on the opposite side of Turkey, was the main item on the agenda, but little of substance was announced beyond a pledge to rid the country of terrorist groups and to meet again later this year. Importantly, Turkey’s recent threat to invade northern Syria to destroy Kurdish militant groups based there still hangs in the air — a point underscored by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s call for Russia and Iran to be more “supportive” of Turkey’s security concerns. Still, both Moscow and Tehran have warned him against an invasion. Putin and Erdogan also failed to close the remaining gaps on a UN-backed plan to restart Ukraine’s seaborne grain exports. Lastly, while Putin and the Iranians traded shots at NATO and the West, there was no public mention of the current, fast-fading efforts to revive the long-stalled 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
EU fillets financial sanctions over food concerns
The European Union is planning on Wednesday to relax sanctions against several major Russian banks in a move to address high global food prices. Although there are no Western restrictions on Russian food or agricultural goods specifically, many global traders have avoided taking Russian cargo because the Russian banks that finance those exports are sanctioned. The news comes as Ukraine and Russia are nearing a UN-brokered deal to reopen Ukraine’s Black Sea shipping lanes for grain exports. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, the two countries were leading exporters of grain and cooking oils, and Russia was a top fertilizer exporter. The war and sanctions interrupted much of those shipments, driving up global food prices and jeopardizing the livelihoods and food security of hundreds of millions of people globally. Although global food prices have eased since hitting historic highs in May, they are still 23% higher than they were a year ago, according to the UN. For complete coverage of the global food crisis, check out our Hunger Pains project.
Sri Lankan MPs pick unpopular president
Following last week's dramatic resignation of disgraced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sri Lankan's parliament on Wednesday endorsed his unpopular chosen successor amid mass social unrest sparked by a months-long economic collapse and political crisis. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former prime minister appointed acting president after Rajapaksa's departure, was confirmed in the top job by a majority of MPs over the little-known opposition hopeful Dullas Alahapperuma. On the one hand, Wickremesinghe has the experience to lead the country through tough times and crucial negotiations for an IMF bailout after serving — checks notes — sixstints as PM. On the other, most protesters want him out because he's considered a Rajapaksa loyalist (they even torching his private residence at the height of the popular uprising). The opposition now says they’re willing to give Wickremesinghe a chance, but the political turmoil will likely continue.
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Demonstrators celebrate after entering the Sri Lankan PM's office in Colombo to demand his resignation as interim president.
Sri Lanka slipping into anarchy
Things have gone from bad, to worse, to outright crazy in Sri Lanka since the beginning of the year.
We warned you early on that the country would default on its huge sovereign debt, which it did in May. Since then, the economic crisis has quickly morphed into full-blown political turmoil and a social catastrophe the likes of which the region has not seen for a long time.
And there’s no easy fix.
The backstory. Thanks to the double whammy of COVID killing tourism and dismal economic policies — like banning chemical fertilizers to grow more organic food — the island nation depleted its foreign currency reserves weeks ago.
Sky-high inflation has pushed food prices through the roof and left one-quarter of Sri Lankans hungry. Life in Colombo has become a dystopian nightmare of empty schools by day and dark streets by night to save power since the country is virtually out of fuel.
Long-simmering public fury at deeply unpopular President Gotabaya Rajapaksa boiled over last weekend, when protesters occupied the presidential palace to demand his resignation. The president, from a dynasty that has dominated Sri Lankan politics for two decades, reluctantly agreed but has not been seen or heard from since.
The latest. Rajapaksa fled the country on Wednesday, and from the Maldives appointed his also-reviled PM Ranil Wickremesinghe as caretaker president. Wickremesinghe — who’d previously promised to quit himself — then declared a nationwide state of emergency, which protesters defied by storming his office. The interim leader responded by ordering the army to do "whatever's necessary" to maintain order.
We’re still waiting for Rajapaksa's official resignation letter, and no one seems to know who's really in charge.
So, what might happen next? Don’t count on a swift resolution, says Akhil Bery, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Even if Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe keep their promises to step down and MPs appoint successors, Bery believes a new interim government will lack a popular mandate, and be too weak and unstable to pass the tough economic reforms the IMF requires to bail out Sri Lanka. What’s more, Rajapaksa’s party controls parliament, having won a two-thirds majority in the 2020 election.
Finally, opposition leader and presidential hopeful Sajith Premadasa is also quite unpopular, and he lost big in the 2019 presidential election against Rajapaksa.
What about a coup? Bery says a military takeover — which would be Sri Lanka’s first — is unlikely because the army so far hasn’t cracked down hard on protesters. And the institutions, especially the judiciary, remain strong.
The only way out seems to be to hold a general election. But no one is talking about that, the cash-strapped government can hardly afford the cost, and the people are clearly in no mood to wait four months to vote.
The scarier and more likely scenario is continued unrest. What would that look like?
"Anarchy," predicts Bery, drawing a comparison to crisis-ridden Lebanon. "Sri Lanka has gone from having one of the highest development indicators in South Asia and being on the cusp of becoming an upper-middle-income country to [...] going backward. You could be staring at a lost generation here."
Meanwhile, the anger will keep bubbling. "There's as much frustration with the political situation and the capture of politics by the elite as there is with the economic crisis," Bery says.
"The no. 1 big political risk in South Asia is food inflation. People don't care about much, but if you can't put food on the table, that's when they take to the streets."
Demonstrators gather on the lawn of the Sri Lankan prime minister's office in Colombo.
Chaos in Sri Lanka
Just when we thought Sri Lanka’s worst-ever crisis was about to end, things took another unexpected turn on Wednesday.
Deeply unpopular President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has reportedly agreed to resign but has not been seen or heard from in days, fled to the Maldives and is believed to be trying to secure asylum in Dubai or Singapore. Rajapaksa and his family were initially held up at Colombo airport by immigration officers who refused to check their passports inside the VIP lounge, where they were hoping to avoid crowds like those who occupied the presidential palace last weekend.
The president then appointed PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, a Rajapaksa ally who’d also promised to step down, as acting president until parliament meets to select a new head of state, which could take days. Wickremesinghe subsequently declared a nationwide state of emergency and curfew.
As expected, anti-government protesters — who want both men out — ignored the order, storming the prime minister's office in Colombo following a standoff with security forces. Wickremesinghe's whereabouts are unknown, and it's unclear who’s really in charge or who the military will side with moving forward.
Meanwhile, Sri Lankans are getting angrier, and things could go further south if the people don't soon get a new leader without Rajapaksa baggage.
A natural gas pipe in front of EU and Russian flags.
What We're Watching: Russia-EU pipeline repairs, AMLO in the (White) House, Sri Lanka's new leader
Will Russia turn the taps back on?
“Trust us,” Russia is saying, “we’re just doing routine maintenance.” Moscow has just shut off its Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a major source of natural gas for Germany, for 10 days of summer repairs. Annual checkups to these pipelines are normal, but this is no normal year. Berlin worries the Kremlin might leave the pipes closed as a way to retaliate against the EU for the bloc’s Ukraine-related sanctions. Nord Stream 1 carries about 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Germany, equaling about half of the country’s yearly consumption. If Moscow keeps the line shut, Europe would struggle to store up enough gas supplies ahead of next winter. Natural gas prices in Europe are already soaring, and although the EU is moving to wean itself off of Russian energy, any further shortfalls would further stoke already-high inflation, with unpredictable political consequences across the continent. Putin, of course, knows this. Keep an eye on that “closed for repairs” sign hanging on Nord Stream 1.
Biden meets AMLO
Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, visits the White House on Tuesday for a sit-down with US President Joe Biden at a time when ties are tense. López Obrador has recently irked the Biden administration by calling US support for Ukraine a “crass error” and by skipping the US-hosted Summit of the Americas because the White House didn’t invite the authoritarian leaders of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Washington, meanwhile, has irritated AMLO with criticisms that he’s undermined the independence of some of Mexico’s governing institutions and hasn’t done enough to protect journalists’ lives. Still, the two men will try to make progress on two key issues. On immigration, Mexico still allows the US to deport non-Mexican migrants back into Mexico under the controversial Title 42 policy, but in exchange AMLO wants Biden to authorize more work visas for Mexicans and Central Americans – perhaps a tough sell for a Democrat in an election year. Trade too will figure in the meeting: Washington is concerned about Mexico’s loose adherence to environmental and labor standards in the US-Mexico-Canada free trade deal (the NAFTA 2.0 pact that Trump negotiated in 2020.)
Date set for new Sri Lankan president
Sri Lanka’s parliament will select a new caretaker president from among its own ranks on July 20, in hopes of calming the worst political, economic, and social crisis in the island nation’s history. To clear the way for that, the current president and prime minister will both resign on Wednesday. The moves come after protesters furious about a nosediving economy and high prices for food, fuel, and medicine stormed the leaders’ residences over the weekend. Whoever is tapped to lead the country now will face daunting challenges: the most immediate is to secure an IMF rescue package, but beyond that to re-establish trust in the government and place the country’s tourism-dependent economy back on firmer footing as the pandemic recedes. In May, the country allowed the first sovereign debt default in its history, the result of government mismanagement of foreign currency reserves, which now hardly exist at all.Demonstrators celebrate after entering the p-presidential palace in Sri Lanka.
What We’re Watching: Sri Lankan anger boils over, Musk sours on Twitter
Protesters occupy presidential palace in Colombo
Long-simmering public wrath directed at Sri Lanka’s leader over the country’s economic collapse finally boiled over.
Fed up with months of food and fuel shortages, thousands of protesters broke through security barricades on Saturday to invade the official residence of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who had fled hours earlier. The demonstrators ransacked the premises, swam in the pool, and took selfies surrounded by luxury that ordinary Sri Lankans can only dream of. They also set fire to the nearby prime minister’s home, and say they won’t leave until Rajapaksa steps down — which he has agreed to do by Wednesday.
How did we get here? Sri Lanka's economic collapse is as much a result of the government's mismanagement — and piling debt — as the country's vulnerability to external shocks: first the loss of tourism revenue due to the pandemic, and more recently inflation and shortages aggravated by Russia's war in Ukraine. Sri Lanka defaulted for the first time ever on its sovereign debt in May and later ran out of foreign currency to pay for basic imports. India has provided a credit line and China a currency swap, but Sri Lanka still faces a humanitarian crisis.
What happens next? Opposition leaders met on Sunday in Colombo to negotiate the composition of an all-party interim government. Once they show a majority of votes in parliament, they'll accept the resignation of the president and the PM, and the speaker will become caretaker president. Rajapaksa’s whereabouts remain unknown.
The much bigger problem, though, is the economy. Sri Lanka needs a massive IMF bailout, but it'll have strings attached: the international lender requires economic reforms that’ll be unpopular yet ensure the now-bankrupt state will be able to pay back the money. Sri Lanka’s fate depends on the new government agreeing to those terms.
Musk vs. Twitter
It’s not official, but it’s getting there. Twitter is going to war with Elon Musk for dropping his $44 billion bid for the company over the social media platform’s bot problem, vowing to sue the world’s richest man. The location will be Delaware (where Twitter’s white-shoe legal firm does its thing). But the backdrop will be MAGA Land, as former US President Donald Trump & Co have panned the gazillionaire’s inconsistency, arguing that Twitter’s censorship policies will be bolstered by his (in)decision. The political soundtrack to the ensuing courtroom battle will be about endorsement and online support, like which candidate Musk will back with his 100 million Twitter followers for the 2024 presidential election. Wall Street won’t be happy, as investment banks will likely miss out on a massive payday. And then there are the conspiracy theories, including that Musk faked his bid as a cover to liquidate his expiring Tesla options at a good price. Ultimately though, there’s a larger-than-law conundrum: even if he loses, Musk may say he still doesn’t want to buy. What will Twitter do? Block his account?Indian PM Narendra Modi.
Bombastic Modi no more?
Would the Narendra Modi of 2019 – the year his clampdown on Kashmir drew ire from human rights activists worldwide – have backed down on Prophet Mohammad-related gaffes made by members of his party? Pre-pandemic, would the bombastic Indian prime minister have missed a chance to forcefully weigh in on Sri Lankan domestic affairs amid a dire political crisis?
It wasn’t so long ago when former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa alleged in 2015, just days after voters removed him from office, that India’s spy agency, the Research & Analysis Wing, had helped oust him from power. Now, the tone of Rajapaksa’s family toward India couldn’t be more different. Namal, Rajapaksa’s son, recently thanked Modi and “the people of India” for sending aid to his country at a time when Sri Lanka is battling its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948.
The Sri Lankan crisis has helped reveal a departure from Modi’s traditionally muscular foreign policy approach. This comes after a series of unrealistic promises, hyperactive diplomacy, and religious divisions in India have backfired on New Delhi globally. Modi’s newfound caution has potential implications for the United States as it presses India to play more of a leadership role in the Indo-Pacific.
Rajapaksa, who returned in 2020 as prime minister of Sri Lanka, went into hiding last month after being targeted by protesters. His younger brother Gotabaya, meanwhile, is grimly holding on to the presidency despite demands for his resignation amid a crisis that has seen him order the stockpiling of goods to avoid food shortages. That’s just the sort of messy situation where Modi would’ve once forcefully intervened – in keeping with his aspirations of projecting India as a rising global power. Instead, Modi is treading with care in Sri Lanka at a time when economic and political fires are erupting across South Asia, including in Pakistan and Nepal. While India has committed more than $3 billion in aid to Sri Lanka, it has carefully avoided any suggestion that it has a favorite among the political leaders vying to lead the island nation.
“It’s a very interesting shift,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center. “India is clearly being cautious politically in Sri Lanka, even though it is sending significant economic aid.”
Kugelman said that it might be premature to conclude a broader move away from Modi’s assertive diplomacy based just on the change in strategy with Colombo. But there are other signs that suggest Modi is on the defensive internationally in a way that hasn’t happened before.
This week, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and Kuwait lashed out publicly against the prime minister’s Bharatiya Janata Party after its representatives made controversial comments about Prophet Mohammad. Modi, who has built a reputation as a leader who doesn’t buckle in the face of criticism, caved, and the BJP suspended one leader and sacked another for their comments.
In many ways, that caution echoes India’s low-risk foreign policy approach of old. During the Cold War, India was non-aligned, though it did lean toward Moscow starting in the 1970s. By the 1990s, India had adopted a relatively more sedate stance even in its neighborhood.
Modi promised to change that with a “Neighborhood First'' policy. He became the first Indian leader to visit Nepal in 17 years. “At that time, we used to joke that Modi would win elections in Nepal too — that’s how popular he was because he said the right things,” said Santosh Sharma Poudel, co-founder of the Kathmandu-based Nepal Institute for Policy Research. Modi held one-on-one summits with Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to build a personal relationship. And addressing the U.S. Congress, he said New Delhi and Washington had finally overcome “the hesitations of history.”
But Modi has struggled to live up to many of his bombastic commitments, forcing New Delhi to confront the re-emergence of doubts about India’s role in its neighborhood and the world.
In April 2015, Modi claimed it was his tweet that told Nepal’s prime minister about the earthquake that had just devastated the Himalayan nation. Then, his government boasted about aiding Nepal. As a backlash started in that country, he asked Ranjit Rae, India’s ambassador to Kathmandu: “Why don’t they like us?”
Yet only a few months later, India tried to pressure Nepal to pause on adopting a controversial new constitution, setting the stage for a border blockade that strangled the smaller landlocked nation’s economy. Kathmandu blamed New Delhi and pulled closer to Beijing.
Now, as Nepal faces a foreign exchange crisis — it banned the import of cars, alcohol, and luxury items last month to maintain its remaining reserves — India has been more careful with its words and actions. “A big part of why India is disliked by many in Nepal is because it is seen as trying to interfere at the micro-level,” said Poudel.
That’s true in Sri Lanka too, where “India often gets blamed for everything,” said Asanga Abeyagoonasekara, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Millennium Project. Still, Rajapaksa’s claims in 2015 came at a particularly fraught moment in relations. Colombo had drifted too close to Beijing for New Delhi’s comfort. India was widely believed to have helped unite a fractured Sri Lankan opposition that then defeated Rajapaksa. But his return in 2020 forced New Delhi to reconcile with its former nemesis in Colombo.
Globally, India also has had to sheepishly walk back some of Modi’s boldest promises. Amid disruptions to global food supplies because of the war in Ukraine, Modi said India would boost its wheat exports. Instead, it has had to ban wheat exports because of a poor harvest. Last summer, India had to ban the export of COVID-19 vaccines after Modi promised to produce enough shots to meet the world’s needs — because his government failed to order enough doses. “There’s a lesson here on how it's probably wise to be more careful about what you promise,” Kugelman said.
Meanwhile, in Sri Lanka, India needs to walk a tightrope, said Abeyagoonasekara. Protesters appreciate the economic help from their northern neighbor, he said. But already, New Delhi is having to fend off criticism – this time that it’s helping the Rajapaksas. It has rejected claims that Mahinda Rajapaksa has escaped to India and rumors that the government in Colombo has bought water cannons directed against protesters using an Indian loan.
At a time when Western officials believe that China is establishing a military base in Cambodia, Modi’s reticence to insert India more proactively in Sri Lanka sits uneasily with his previous claims that New Delhi would serve as a “net security provider” in the Indo-Pacific.
But India can’t afford to sit on the fence too long. “This [the crisis in Sri Lanka] could become a national security challenge for India too,” Abeyagoonasekara warned.
Charu Kasturi is a freelance writer specializing in foreign affairs. He is based in Bangalore, India, and often writes for outlets such as Al Jazeera and Foreign Policy.
Sri Lankan army patrol on a main road in Colombo following clashes between anti-government protesters and supporters of the Rajapaksa family.
Sri Lanka on the brink
For weeks, Sri Lanka has been in the grips of a deepening economic and political crisis, teetering on the brink of anarchy and chaos as a largely bankrupt state at risk of becoming a failed one. Massive protests driven by soaring fuel and food prices have forced the resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and upped the pressure on the international community to help alleviate the suffering of Sri Lankans. China and India, which have both vied for influence in the small island nation, are looking on nervously. We spoke to Eurasia Group’s Peter Mumford to get a sense of what might happen next and what the geopolitical stakes are.
Will the prime minister’s resignation help end the political crisis?
It will only modestly assuage protestors, who are unlikely to be happy unless his brother, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, steps down as well. He is unlikely to do so, at least in the immediate future, though protesters may feel increasingly emboldened by his sacrifice of Mahinda (and other family members) to push for the president’s scalp too.
That said, Mahinda’s resignation could pave the way for a “national unity” government that includes ministers nominated by opposition parties. This could help calm tensions in the streets initially. Ultimately though, a new administration, whatever its makeup, will quickly become unpopular because it'll be unable to remedy the existential economic crisis and the woes of its citizens. That will probably require a new IMF debt restructuring program and an improvement in the global economic outlook.
How did Sri Lanka get to this point?
The economic crisis is a result of mismanagement by the Rajapaksa administration (and its predecessors) as well as Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to external shocks. The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had a devastating impact. The Rajapaksas pursued populist economic policies — including unaffordable fuel and food subsidies and printing money to finance them — that spurred inflation. The president was heavily criticized for a disastrous “100% organic” policy that aimed to reduce the strain on foreign currency reserves by banning the import of chemical fertilizers. The policy resulted in slashed agricultural output at a time when food supplies were already running low and prices were soaring.
Meanwhile, foreign tourism — a key source of jobs, economic growth, and foreign currency — fell after the 2019 Easter bombings and then collapsed during the pandemic. The spike in international commodity prices, which has been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has piled further economic pressure on Sri Lanka. The country relies heavily on imports of food, fuel, and other essential goods to feed the people and keep the lights on.
What role did China play?
Sri Lanka’s crisis is often blamed in part on China’s so-called “debt-trap diplomacy.” While it is true that Colombo has borrowed large sums of money from Beijing for infrastructure projects, China accounts for only about 10%-15% of Sri Lanka’s total external borrowings (although the share has risen in recent years). Private international investors hold just over half of it.
Beijing has supported Sri Lanka in the current crisis by providing a large currency swap agreement to temporarily bolster Colombo’s foreign exchange reserves. Still, it's just another loan. China has also allowed Sri Lanka to roll over some bilateral debt repayments but has yet to offer any debt forgiveness.
What would Sri Lanka need to do to get IMF debt relief?
The IMF has already started negotiations with Sri Lanka on a new program that will require a broad debt restructuring, economic reforms, and spending cuts. But those talks could take months to conclude, and the IMF now says that Sri Lanka does not meet the criteria for a Rapid Financing Instrument, which allows countries to get cash fast to meet urgent payments without a more comprehensive program in place.
Gotabaya has assembled a team of expert advisers to help, though discussions with creditors could take some time unless Colombo unilaterally announces “haircuts” — that is, a reduction in the amount it is willing to repay. The IMF will also need to be convinced that the government is serious about implementing the broad reforms needed to get the country’s finances back on a more sustainable path, including spending cuts and tax hikes. The central bank dramatically raised interest rates recently, signaling its willingness to take tough measures to tackle inflation and rebuild currency reserves.
What about India? Can Delhi do more beyond giving Sri Lanka food and cash lifelines?
India has provided Sri Lanka with credit lines for the purchase of much-needed fuel and other essential goods, even as India faces its own shortages and inflationary pressure. It has also offered a small currency swap agreement and indicated a willingness to provide debt forgiveness as part of an IMF package. As an important stakeholder at the IMF, India is also lobbying the fund for more and faster multilateral support for Sri Lanka.
Sri Lankan protesters demanding the president's resignation clash with police in Colombo, Sri Lanka.
What We're Watching: Sri Lanka's political turmoil, Putin's low-key Victory Day speech, drug cartel riots in Colombia
One Rajapaksa resigns in Sri Lanka
Following months of protests over government mismanagement and the country’s economic collapse, Sri Lanka’s embattled Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has announced his resignation. Violent clashes broke out in the capital city, Colombo, on Monday between anti-government protesters and supporters of the Rajapaksa regime, which is headed by the PM’s brother, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. At least 150 people were taken to hospital after authorities used heavy-handed tactics to try to disperse the demonstrators. This political shake-up comes amid unrest over soaring fuel and food prices and constant blackouts. Sri Lanka’s foreign currency reserves have entirely dried up, prompting Colombo to print more money, which further pushed prices up and the currency value down. The Rajapaksa brothers had overseen the country’s warming ties with China in recent years, which has seen Sri Lanka become embroiled in a relentless debt trap set out by Beijing. Until now, Mahinda Rajapaksa had refused to step down. We're watching to see if protesters go home, or if they continue demanding the ouster of his brother.
Putin’s “nothing to declare” message
Monday’s big news from Russia’s war on Ukraine is that Vladimir Putin delivered a Victory Day speech with no big news in it. This “nothing to declare” speech could be revealing about Putin’s own uncertainty about where the war is headed. His refusal to declare an escalation of the fighting acknowledges a few basic realities. One, the emerging stalemate in Ukraine leaves the Kremlin much less confident than at the beginning of the war about what can be achieved, and Putin doesn’t want to offer specific goals that Russia might not reach. Two, Putin’s “best friend,” Chinese President Xi Jinping, isn’t on board with a larger war. Chinese State TV reported on Monday that Xi has told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that “all efforts must be made to avoid an intensification and expansion of the conflict, leading to an unmanageable situation.” COVID and a slowing economy give Xi enough headaches at home without a wider war pitting Russia against the West to make things more complicated. Third, Putin knows that escalation in Ukraine means a lot more Russian men drafted into the army – and that any such announcement would test the limits of domestic support for his war.
Drug cartel riots rock Colombia
Last week, Colombia extradited a notorious narco kingpin known as “Otoniel” to the United States to face trial. By the weekend, supporters of his fearsome Clan del Golfo cartel had run amok in several regions of northern Colombia, blocking roads, imposing lockdowns, and torching cars in a wave of violence that drew in the military and left at least half a dozen people dead. Analysts say the power of groups like the Clan del Golfo stems partly from the government’s failure to bring economic opportunity to vast swathes of the country relinquished by the FARC guerrilla group after a historic 2016 peace accord. For now, Otoniel’s goons have stood down, but the violence — some of the worst upheaval since nationwide protests over a tax reform in 2021 — has already filtered into the country’s ultra-polarized presidential campaign. Leftwinger Gustavo Petro, who leads the polls, blasted the government’s failed security policies and accused powerful rightwing former President Alvaro Uribe of fomenting the armed groups that later became the Clan del Golfo. Meanwhile, Fico Gutierrez, a rightwinger polling a distant second, called on Colombians to condemn the violence and pledged to strengthen extradition mechanisms to ensure justice for men like Otoniel and reparations for their victims. Colombians vote in the election’s first round on May 29.