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US-Ukraine policy under Trump would be similar to Biden's
Harvard Kennedy School’s Stephen Walt suggests that there’s not as much daylight between Biden and Trump as people might think when it comes to US policy towards Ukraine.
As with Trump, Walt argues, “Biden would also be trying to end this war sooner rather than later.” But where Biden would be looking to support Ukraine in securing the best possible deal in a peace arrangement, Trump might abandon Ukraine, forcing them to rely more on European support for security.
"Trump is fundamentally a nationalist and unilateralist” Walt tells Bremmer in a wide-ranging interview, “…whereas Biden is very much a globalist or internationalist."
Watch full episode here: How the US election will change the world
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Biden and Trump's Middle East policies are "almost identical" - Harvard's Stephen Walt
In a candid discussion with Ian Bremmer, Harvard Kennedy School professor Stephen Walt highlights the striking similarities between the Biden and Trump administrations' Middle East policies. "It's hard to see a big change between the Trump administration's approach to the Middle East and what the Biden administration was doing up until October 7." Walt notes that Biden's actions have mirrored Trump's, from failing to fulfill promises like reopening the US Consulate in Jerusalem to continuing Trump's approach with the Abraham Accords.
Despite occasional frustrations and ongoing conflicts in the region, both administrations have maintained strong support for Israel, with little indication of significant policy shifts. Walt also emphasizes the cautious approach of both presidents regarding Iran, suggesting that neither side desires a full-scale conflict, given the complexities and potential repercussions in the volatile Middle East. “For the United States to get involved in yet another large Middle East war seems to me is contrary to our interests, but it's also contrary to most of Donald Trump's instincts.”
Watch full episode here: How the US election will change the world
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Biden vs Trump foreign policy: Political scientist Stephen Walt weighs in
Listen: On this episode of GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer and Harvard Kennedy School Professor Stephen Walt discuss foreign policy differences between a second term for Biden or Trump on issues like China, Ukraine, and the Middle East. Walt argues that American foreign policy under a second Trump term wouldn’t be so different from the last four years under Biden. “The daylight may not be as great as people think,” Walt tells Ian. For instance, Walt says, “It's hard to see a big change between the Trump administration's approach to the Middle East and what the Biden administration was doing up until October 7." On China, Ukraine and the Mideast, Walt doesn’t see a big difference between the last two US presidents.
That hasn’t been Ian Bremmer’s view, to say the least. Well, that sounds like the makings of a good discussion. So let’s have it.
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What the West is doing wrong in the world's biggest crises
To fix our broken international political system, we need a crisis. For instance, a pandemic, climate change, Big Tech having too much power, or a Russia invasion of Ukraine. But it must be a crisis that's so destructive it forces us to respond fast, and together — like World War II. That's the crisis that created the international system we have today, and kept the peace until now. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to Anne-Marie Slaughter, former US State Department official and now CEO of New America, and political scientist and Harvard professor Stephen Walt about the war and other crises.
Slaughter and Walt debate key issues such as the tough choices NATO faces on expanding to more countries but not Ukraine or other former Soviet republics, what we learned from the pandemic, and whether there are still reasons for hope in our current gloomy political environment. "If you're going to use a crisis effectively for change, you have to be able to have the right time horizon, the right group of countries, and a very specific set of goals," says Slaughter. But Walt believes we can't tackle all these crises at the same time — otherwise, at some point people will just throw up their hands and say it's just too hard.
For Walt, it was unfortunate to have "a lot of the wrong leaders in a lotta the wrong places at exactly the wrong time," which prevented for instance the US and China from coordinating a more effective global response to the pandemic.
Slaughter thinks we do have the ability to address many of the problems affecting the Global South because the most powerful countries are now all over the world. Many voices of people who need to be at the table — civic groups, CEOs, women, people of color — are not being heard.
Using today's crises to fix tomorrow's problems
We're moving toward more illiberalism, zero trust in the US-China relationship, and other global crises. Are there any reasons for hope?
Not for political scientist and Harvard professor Stephen Walt, who believes we can't tackle all these crises at the same time — otherwise, at some point people will just throw up their hands and say it's just too hard.
What's more, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, when a crisis hits, the temptation to turn to strongman rule to fix the problem "goes way up."
For her part, Anne-Marie Slaughter, former US State Department official and CEO of New America, thinks we do have the ability to address many of the problems affecting the Global South because the most powerful countries are now all over the world.
Still, she says that many voices of people who need to be at the table — civic groups, CEOs, women, people of color — are not being heard.
Watch the rest of Ian Bremmer's conversation with Anne-Marie Slaughter and Stephen Walt on this episode of GZERO World: Hope as major crises intersect
What we learned from COVID
What lessons did we learn from the pandemic that still apply now with the war in Ukraine?
Unlike the war or the 2008 global financial crisis, COVID was not an immediate threat we needed to respond to in real time, says former US State Department official Anne-Marie Slaughter, so different countries were affected in different ways, and responded their own way at different times.
"If you're going to use a crisis effectively for change, you have to be able to have the right time horizon, the right group of countries, and a very specific set of goals," she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
For political scientist and Harvard professor Stephen Walt, it was unfortunate to have "a lot of the wrong leaders in a lotta the wrong places at exactly the wrong time" which prevented for instance the US and China from coordinating a more effective global response to the pandemic.
COVID also ran counter to the expectation that crises make governments take control. They did, but Walt says there was very strong pushback from citizens on things like lockdowns and masks — and that undermines the state's ability to respond.
We've also learned, he adds, how hard it is for many people to make short-term individual sacrifices in order to fix long-term problems.
Watch the rest of Ian Bremmer's conversation with Anne-Marie Slaughter and Stephen Walt on this episode of GZERO World: Hope as major crises intersect
NATO’s tough choices ahead
Is NATO stronger today than it was before Russia invaded Ukraine?
Certainly, former US State Department official Anne-Marie Slaughter tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, but now the tougher issue is how the alliance can say yes to Finland and Sweden but no to Ukraine, despite spending billions of dollars to help the Ukrainians fight the Russians.
"If you say yes to Ukraine, well, surely you have to say yes to Moldova and to Belarus and to Georgia, and then where are you?"
For his part, political scientist and Harvard professor Stephen Walt says that we need to look beyond just blaming Vladimir Putin for the war to think about what the endgame will be in Ukraine, and how that affects NATO's own future plans.
If the Western goal is to push a nuclear-armed power whose "ambitions are clearly being thwarted" to become weaker over time, then perhaps America will recognize that entails sending US troops.
Watch the rest of Ian Bremmer's conversation with Anne-Marie Slaughter and Stephen Walt on this episode of GZERO World: Hope as major crises intersect
Hope as major crises intersect
To fix our broken international political system, we need a crisis. For instance, a pandemic, climate change, or Big Tech having too much power.
But it must be a crisis that's so destructive it forces us to respond fast, and together — like World War II.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to Anne-Marie Slaughter, former US State Department official and now CEO of New America, and political scientist and Harvard professor Stephen Walt about the Ukraine war and other crises.
Slaughter and Walt debate key issues such as the tough choices NATO faces on expanding to more countries but not Ukraine or other former Soviet republics, what we learned from the pandemic, and whether there are still reasons for hope in our current gloomy political environment.
By the way, Ian has a new book out, "The Power of Crisis," where he looks at three looming challenges, and what we should do about them so we are not caught unprepared next time.