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Israel/Palestine one of the few Middle East areas getting less stable
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Israel launched its biggest military operation in the West Bank since 2002. How will it impact Israeli-Palestinian stability?
Well, I mean, pretty badly. The problem is that Israel has no interest in reopening talks with the Palestinians on a potential two-state solution. The country has moved towards the Right on that issue, and the Palestinians don't have effective governance, for the Palestinian authority in the West Bank is increasingly weakened and in Gaza, it's really a matter of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So, there's no movement towards talking. Instead, it's the Israelis taking more territory, building more settlements, and the Palestinians getting angrier and more desperate. And no surprise that you're going to see more military confrontation on the back of that. Having said that, it's one of the few areas where things aren't getting more stable in the Middle East, almost everywhere else, the Gulf, Iran's relations with the GCC, Qatar and the GCC, Assad getting normalized, Yemen with a ceasefire, most of the Middle East actually looks more stable.
Is Bolsonaro's political career over?
Well, they say he can't run, the judiciary has said, now he can't, he's out of politics till 2030. I mean, you know, if you look at the United States, he'd still have a couple of decades going, right? You look at Biden and Trump, you just never retire if you're an American political leader. You get to govern forever or at least keep running. But Bolsonaro will still be by far the most popular leader on the Right and therefore has kingmaker status. I think, you know, who he decides he'd like to see as running for the presidency in the next electoral cycle will have a significant leg up. And by the way, he increasingly talks about his wife in that role. So, I mean, keep it in the family. Why not?
Okay, with student loan forgiveness struck down, does it hurt Biden's reelection efforts?
Yeah, I think it does, on balance. I mean, the fact that the executive increasingly is showing that it is on the back foot vis-à-vis not just a legislature that's very polarized, though they have had some wins there, but also a 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court, and that that has struck down a number of issues that is hurting them, I think that does matter. I think a promise to forgive student loans and not being able to get that done quickly or as big is a promise that Biden, you know, he can say, I'm still working for you, but if he can't get it done, people aren't benefiting. On affirmative action, it's more in between. I mean, then it depends on how the question is phrased, whether or not it's actually popular, unpopular. On balance, I would say striking it down as more with the population as opposed to the abortion issue, where clearly the population is on the side of Roe and against today's Supreme Court. So still very, very polarized, the US. Not surprised, that's sort of the theme of the day. I hope everyone is well and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Students protesting the US Supreme Court's ruling blocking student loan forgiveness
Supreme Court rejects Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan
Today, on the final day of its session, the US Supreme Court announced its decision to block President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness proposal, which would have canceled more than $400 billion in student loan debt for millions of borrowers.
While disappointing to the 40 million student loan borrowers who would have benefitted from the program, the odds of the conservative majority court ruling in favor of Biden’s proposal were slim. The 6-3 vote was split down ideological lines, with the court’s conservative justices arguing that the law does not authorize the Department of Education to cancel student loan debt.
Biden had justified his plan by using the HEROES Act, which allows the Secretary of Education to alleviate the hardship of student loan debt during times of national emergencies. But six states filed lawsuits accusing Biden of overstepping his authority.
Student loan forgiveness was one of Biden’s campaign promises in 2020. While those who supported it will likely blame the court, Friday’s ruling is a setback for the president as he looks ahead to his 2024 run for the White House. His popularity with millennials and Gen Z was already falling – it dropped 31 points since Biden took office to 39%, according to a Gallop polling data – and these groups are particularly passionate about racial justice and student debt.
This was a double whammy decision, coming on the heels of the high court’s ruling on Thursday to prohibit race-based college admissions, overturning decades of precedent for affirmative action. That decision echoed its 2022 Dobbs decision, which also ignored precedent and upended nationwide abortion access.
The Supreme Court’s power derives from it being perceived as an apolitical arbiter of the law, but the perceived conservative bias in the Dobbs decision caused confidence in the Supreme Court to plummet – especially among Democrats, young voters, Black voters, and women.
Those are the same groups who are most likely to support affirmative action and student loan forgiveness. So while the end of this Supreme Court session brought wins for the ideologically conservative, it may have come at the cost of national confidence in the US justice system.
People file into the United States Supreme Court before SCOTUS handing down opinions.
It's the final countdown for the US Supreme Court
The US Supreme Court will issue the final decisions of its current term this week, and so far its rulings have been surprisingly moderate for a conservative-majority court.
On Tuesday, it rejected the so-called “independent state legislature theory," a fringe legal argument to give state legislatures broadly unchecked power over federal election rules. The same theory served as the basis of former President Donald Trump’s attempt to have states send “alternative” pro-Trump electors to the electoral college to overturn the 2020 election.
While the theory has been rejected by mainstream legal scholars, it seemed likely that the justices (three of whom were appointed by Trump) might rule in its favor. The decision, which runs contrary to the growing perception that the court is a political body, reinforces checks and balances and puts the kibosh on any repeat antics in 2024.
Other decisions: The justices ruled in favor of equal voting rights and tribal rights, and against stronger environmental protections this session. It also heard two cases over tech companies' liability for harmful content, deciding both in favor of Big Tech.
Looming decisions: Four consequential rulings are expected this week on student loan forgiveness, affirmative action in college admissions, religious workers' rights, and a case at the nexus of religion, free speech, and gay rights.
Who polices the Supreme Court?
Who watches the watchmen? And who oversees the US Supreme Court? As SCOTUS, the highest court in the US, gears up to issue some blockbuster rulings this summer, ethical concerns swirl around its members, and its public support is at an all-time low.
It’s been one year since SCOTUS struck down Roe v. Wade, eliminating the constitutional right to abortion after 50 years of precedent. In the months following the decision, the conservative supermajority quickly moved US law away from the political center. Multiple controversies erupted surrounding Justice Clarence Thomas, and public opinion balked at a blanket refusal to address questions about the justices’ ethical standard.
Has the Supreme Court become overly politicized? Can public faith be restored in a deeply partisan America? And what major rulings are still to come this session? Ian Bremmer talks with Yale Law School legal expert, New York Times Magazine columnist and co-host of the Slate’s Political Gabfest podcast, Emily Bazelon.
Tune into GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television stations nationwide. Check local listings.
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3 key Supreme Court decisions expected in June 2023
As the 2023-2023 Supreme Court session comes to a close, a flurry of major decisions are expected by the end of the month on the EPA, affirmative action, and student loan forgiveness. Emily Bazelon, Yale Law School Senior Research Fellow and host of Slate’s Political Gabfest podcast, stopped by GZERO World with Ian Bremmer to discuss some of the big cases argued before the court this term.
SCOTUS already issued a ruling in Sackett v. EPA, limiting the power of the Environmental Protection Agency to protect US wetlands and waterways. It’s the second ruling in a year where the justices significantly rolled back the federal government’s authority to regulate the environment.
“Millions of acres that have been regulated up till now won't be anymore,” Bazelon says, “And when you think about the record of the Clean Water Act for preserving and cleaning Americans’ waterways and rivers, now the EPA has a lot less reach to do that.
There are also two important cases in higher education––affirmative action and President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan. Bazelon thinks that SCOTUS is ready to end race-based affirmative action in the US based on justices’ questioning in oral arguments. How the court will rule in the student loans case, however, is trickier to predict because loan forgiveness is somewhat tied to national emergency declaration for COVID, which ended in May.
For more on the Supreme Court and what to expect from anticipated rulings this year, tune into GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. Check local listings.
- What We’re Watching: SCOTUS mulling student debt relief, Blinken visiting Central Asia, Biden's partial TikTok ban, Petro’s post-honeymoon phase ›
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Demonstrators call for US President Joe Biden to cancel all student loan debt in Washington, DC.
Biden forgives (some) US student loan debt
The White House on Wednesday unveiled President Biden’s long-awaited plan to tackle soaring student debt in America, which currently sits at a whopping $1.6 trillion.
What’s in the package? In a one-time deal, the government will cancel $10,000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers making less than $125,000 annually or couples with a joint income under $250,000. Recipients of Pell Grants for low-income undergrads are eligible for an extra $10,000 write-off.
The Biden administration also extended for the last time a pandemic-era pause on payments, which was going to expire on Aug. 31, until the end of 2022. It also wants to cap monthly payments at 5% of earnings. That would cover unpaid interest for Americans who'd owe zero because their income is too low, so their loan balances won’t grow.
Who’ll get the relief? All former students who borrowed money from the government under its higher education financial aid program for college, and current ones who took out a loan before July 1st of this year. With a stroke of his pen, the White House estimates that Biden will wipe out the student debt of some 20 million eligible Americans, almost one-third of the total.
The assistance applies to neither private loans, which account for the lion’s share of accusations of predatory lending, nor to already paid debts, even if they were federal loans.
Who's happy? Students who’ll benefit, obviously. That explains why more than a million Americans are now googling “student loans” and searching online for how to apply for debt relief.
Most progressives within the Democratic Party are thrilled, although some senators want Biden to go even bigger and cancel $50,000 per borrower with no income cap. Biden hopes it’ll energize young voters deep in student loan debt ahead of the November midterms, with Dems’ chances looking better than a couple of months ago.
Who’s not so happy? Most economists. Clinton and Obama administration veteran Larry Summers warns that debt forgiveness will further drive up inflation by giving some Americans extra cash to spend when prices are already high.
Who blew a gasket? Many students and their parents who saved money to pay their debt. But mostly the GOP.
"Republicans see the chance to point out that taxpayers are subsidizing the borrowing of college-educated Americans, who tend to have higher lifetime incomes and the most job opportunities," Jon Lieber, US managing director at Eurasia Group, says in this week's US Politics in 60 Seconds.
$10,000 in student loan forgiveness: what's the point?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics.
Today's question, $10,000 in student loan forgiveness: what's the point?
President Biden is going to announce up to $10,000 in student loan forgiveness for people making up to $125,000 a year. This is far short of the full student loan forgiveness that progressive activists have been calling for and even short of the $50,000 that Democratic leaders had embraced and Biden was considering earlier in the year. Still, the forgiveness is estimated to provide at least some relief for the vast majority of the 40 million Americans with student loans and will entirely wipe out the obligations of up to 15 million Americans.
Biden was very slow and hesitant to make this call, struggling with the issues of fairness. Millions of Americans who have paid off their loans or benefited from their parent's savings, sometimes at great personal cost, will receive nothing from this plan. And it is estimated to cost the federal government over $300 billion, wiping out entirely the savings from the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act. It could also be challenged legally, as there has been no explicit congressional authorization to forgive the debt. And it is Congress, not the executive branch, who controls spending. Politically, there is risk of some backlash, as Republicans see the chance to point out that taxpayers are subsidizing the borrowing of college educated Americans who tend to have higher lifetime incomes and better job opportunities. But for progressive activists and young voters, these concerns do not resonate, given that they think education should be a right that is fully funded by the government.
One issue that Biden is unlikely to address is the rising cost of a college education, which has massively outpaced inflation over the last several decades, partially driven by federal subsidies that support it. The move also introduces moral hazard that could increase future borrowing on the expectation that there will be more rounds of student loan forgiveness under future Democratic administrations. Politically, this is likely to be very popular with young voters who will disproportionately benefit from the forgiveness and get a mixed reaction from other Americans who are largely divided on the issue of student loan relief. Unfortunately for Democrats, young voters are some of the least reliable voters, and Democrats are hoping that this issue activates their base in November. Even if the forgiveness falls far short of what progressive access activists were hoping for.
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Should the US cancel student loan debt?
Joe Biden has already cancelled more US student than any other president. But progressive Democrats want him to write off a lot more to reduce the racial wealth gap and help people recover better from COVID's economic ruin. Republicans are against all this because it would be unfair to current and future borrowers and to taxpayers footing the bill, not to mention subsidizing the rich.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: How the COVID-damaged economy surprised Adam Tooze
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- Biden forgives (some) US student loan debt - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: Who pays most/least for college tuition? - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: Who pays most/least for college tuition? - GZERO Media ›