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The challenges of peacekeeping amid rising global conflicts
In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum, Dr. Comfort Ero, President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, shed light on the increasing elusiveness of global peace amid rising conflicts worldwide. She pointed out a "crisis of peacemaking," noting that comprehensive peace processes and settlements have become rare, with the last significant one being in Colombia in 2016.
"We are in the era of big power rivalry and a multipolar world where there are more actors piling in... competing interests, competing visions," Dr. Ero explained. She emphasized that traditional tools for nudging conflicting parties to the negotiation table, such as sanctions, are no longer effective, and the United Nations Security Council is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.
Highlighting the complex situation in Sudan, Dr. Ero described it as a significant crisis that lacks the media attention given to conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza. "We're talking, by the way, 20 years on from Darfur when we said never again. And here we are, and Sudan is on the verge of collapse," she warned. The conflict has led to millions being displaced and a dire humanitarian situation, with neighboring countries like South Sudan and Chad bearing the brunt of refugee inflows.
On the topic of United Nations Security Council reform, Dr. Ero was skeptical about the permanent five members relinquishing their veto power or extending it to others. "The P5 will jealously guard the veto power and will make sure that that is not watered down," she observed, raising questions about the Council's influence in the future.
This conversation was presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum. The Global Stage series convenes heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for critical debates about the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Watch the full conversation at https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage, and watch out for more GZERO coverage of the Paris Peace Forum this week.
A member of the Sudanese Armed forces walks between damaged buildings, almost one year into the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), in Omdurman, Sudan, April 7, 2024.
US leads effort for cease-fire in Sudan
The US is spearheading a new effort for a cease-fire in Sudan, inviting both sides in the civil war to talks in Switzerland set to begin on Aug. 14.
“The scale of death, suffering, and destruction in Sudan is devastating. This senseless conflict must end,” Secretary of State Antony Blinkensaid this week. “We urge the parties to stop the fighting for the sake of a brighter future for Sudan.”
The 15-month-old war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, militia has had a devastating impact on civilians, forcing over 10 million people from their homes and sparking a major humanitarian crisis. Civilians in Sudan are facing "indiscriminate and widespread" violence, according to a recent report from Doctors Without Borders.
Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, chief of the RSF, agreed to attend the talks in Switzerland. But we’ll be watching to see whether the Sudanese army, which hasn’t responded to the invitation yet, also turns up.
Sudanese families wait outside a hospital while doctors and medical staff strike to protest late salaries, bringing the struggling health sector in the city of Port Sudan to almost a complete halt as thousands of displaced Sudanese flooded the city due to the raging war in Khartoum, Sudan, August 20, 2023.
Sudan’s paramilitaries shut key city’s last hospital
In moreterrible news for civilians in Sudan, fighting in the country’s civil war has forced the closure of el-Fasher’s last open hospital. This city is the final stronghold of government forces fighting the RSF, a paramilitary group. Hundreds of thousands of civilians are sheltering in the city.
On Saturday, RSF fighters reportedly opened fire, looted drugs and medical equipment, assaulted hospital staff, and stole an ambulance. The hospital had repeatedly come under RSF fire over the past two weeks.
The civil war has killed at least 15,000 people since April 2023, and nearly nine million have been displaced. The RSF is a collection of what was once the Janjaweed militia groups, which have committed atrocities in Darfur. Both the RSF and government forces have been accused of crimes against civilians during this conflict.
Doctors, with support fromMédecins Sans Frontières, a medical relief organization, will try to shift hospital operations to a rundown Saudi-built hospital further from the frontlines, but that building doesn’t yet have electricity, fuel, or water. An MSF spokesperson says trapped and injured civilians in the city will not receive basic care for at least a week.
Iran-Israel crisis: Dangers still high with little room for diplomacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does the Iran-Israel crisis offer a unique opportunity for diplomacy?
I don't think so. They certainly give an opportunity for a bunch of countries to reengage with Israel. We're seeing that with Jordan, with Saudi Arabia, and to show the Iranians that they are still considered to be the big concern as an enemy in the region, a disrupter. But that's very different from saying we're going to see a breakthrough in relations. You're not resetting deterrence. Iran is going to continue to lead the axis of resistance and provide weapons and intelligence and engage in strikes against targets across the region. Israel will still hit Iranians that are operating there. So going forward, I think the dangers are still pretty high.
Is Germany's Scholz meeting with Xi in Beijing indicating a shift in Europe-China trade tensions?
Not really. Here, the fact that Scholz has a large number of German CEOs in tow means that, yes, he's concerned that the Chinese are providing support to Russia, maybe even increasingly dual-use military support to Russia in the war in Ukraine. He's concerned about Chinese industrial policy that's undermining, the interests of Americans and Europeans economically. But ultimately he is very reliant on investment and trade with China, and he's going to continue to support that. He is not fully aligned with his government on this issue, not his advisors, not his foreign minister, and certainly not the other parties in the coalition. But it is Scholz's perspective. And as a consequence, it is going to be a pretty friendly trip.
Why is Sudan's year-long conflict gone largely unnoticed?
Well, we write about it a fair amount, but I mean, the fact that it is in a part of the world that doesn't have economic implications. So you blow up Ukraine, and Russia is in a fight, and energy prices and food and fertilizer prices go up. Major conflict in Sudan. A lot of people suffer, a lot of people die, but the rest of the world has no impact economically. Also, most of the refugees, people fleeing, fleeing to neighboring African countries, they're not coming over to Mexico, the United States or to Poland and to Germany. And that just doesn't lead to a lot of attention. Final point is that there aren't a lot of journalists on the ground from the West in Sudan. And so not a lot of people are actually covering this. So for all of those reasons, not getting a lot of attention, but we'll keep talking about it.
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Sudanese who fled the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region, cross the border between Sudan and Chad.
UN: Sudan situation is spiraling
Four months after conflict broke out between rival factions in Sudan, the UN warned this week that the situation is spiraling out of control.
The grim statistics: At least 1 million people – roughly the population of Austin, Texas – have fled to neighboring countries, while over 3 million remain displaced inside Sudan, according to UN data.
At least 380,000 Sudanese have fled to Chad, where they languish in refugee camps, while many others have sought refuge in South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Libya – all of which are grappling with their own domestic crises.
The UN now warns that, amid the fighting, medical supplies are scarce and that 100,000 Sudanese women due to give birth in the next 12 weeks may not have access to healthcare facilities.
Recap: Who is fighting whom again? On one side is Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since 2021. That was when the military took over in a violent coup, overthrowing a joint civilian-military government. On the other side is Burhan’s former ally and junta deputy Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who is head of the Rapid Support Forces, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur.
The two sides met in Togo last month for negotiations that yielded no breakthroughs.
The US, EU, Russia, African Union, and Gulf states all have competing interests in resource-rich Sudan (more on that here), which has further complicated mediation efforts. As time goes on and fighting spreads throughout the country – most notably in Darfur – Sudan is developing the hallmarks of a protracted conflict.
Speaking to GZERO Media as the US took over the presidency of the UN Security Council earlier this month, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that the situation in Sudan will be a top priority. Watch the clip here.
As Sudan war worsens, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield says UN must help
On August 1, the United States will take over the presidency of the UN Security Council.
Ian Bremmer sat down with US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield at the UN headquarters in New York to find out what’s on the US agenda for the council presidency next month.
High on the list is addressing issues of food insecurity, human rights violations, and calling out Russia for their ongoing war in Ukraine. But Thomas-Greenfield is also concerned about another global conflict that isn’t getting nearly the same amount of attention: the war in Sudan.
On July 23, the Sudan conflict entered its 100th day. The war is waging a devastating human toll, reigniting ethnic violence and increasing concerns the country is descending into a “full-scale civil war.” On April 15, tensions between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted into armed conflict, turning Khartoum and surrounding areas into a war zone. More than 3 million people have been displaced from their homes, including 700,000 refugees who’ve fled to nearby countries. The health ministry reports that some 1,136 people have been killed, though the true number is believed to be much higher.
Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield says that maintaining peace and security around the globe is a fundamental responsibility of the Security Council. While the war in Ukraine is certainly a priority, the war in Sudan must also be on the agenda.
“The people in Sudan want to hear from the Security Council that we have not forgotten them, that we care about the human rights violations that are being committed,” Thomas-Greenfield told Bremmer. “They need to hear the world has not turned their backs on what is happening in their country.”
Watch the upcoming full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
A Sudanese girl who fled the conflict in Darfur stands at her makeshift shelter near the border between Sudan and Chad
Another flareup in Western Darfur
As fighting between two rival army factions in Sudan rages on, the spillover effects on the restive Darfur region are getting worse.
The flare-up has drawn in local militias in Western Darfur, resulting in hundreds of deaths in the city of El-Geneina this week alone, while thousands have also been displaced.
Hospitals and markets in the region were also burned down by Arab militias and African insurgent groups that have remained at loggerheads since 2003, when Sudan's then-President Omar al-Bashir waged a deadly crackdown to quash an ethnic revolt, killing some 300,000 people.
Many of those fleeing the violence in Western Darfur are now crossing over into Chad, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis in one of the world’s poorest countries.
Meanwhile, the UN said on Wednesday that more than half of Sudan’s population – around 25 million – now relies on aid, up from 15 million, and has called on member states to raise $3 billion to help the war-torn country. But if the crisis in Yemen is anything to go by – the UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan there remains grossly underfunded – Sudan might not get what it needs from the international community anytime soon.
A snapshot of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan.
The Graphic Truth: Crisis on top of crisis in Sudan
Recent clashes between two military factions in Sudan have brought fresh misery to a people long plagued by conflict – and in some regions genocide – under longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir (1993-2019). Violence in Khartoum, now in its third week, has displaced more than 330,000 people, adding to the millions already displaced as a result of ethnic violence in South Sudan in recent years. When al-Bashir was ousted in a popular uprising in 2019, there were hopes that Sudan could undergo a democratic transition, but those aspirations have mostly been quashed. Here’s a snapshot of the humanitarian toll of recent fighting.