Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Delegates affiliated to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) react during a meeting for the planned signing, later postponed, of a political charter that would provide for a "Government of Peace and Unity" to govern the territories the force controls in Nairobi, Kenya, February 18, 2025.
RSF's bid for parallel power in Sudan
On Tuesday, Rapid Support Forces leaders and allies, who have been at war with the Sudanese army since April 2023, convened to finalize what they call the "Sudan Founding Charter for establishing a peace and unity government." The document would create a separate government in the significant swath of Sudan they control.
The timing isn't random. The RSF, having lost ground to the Sudanese Armed Forces in recent months, is desperate to legitimize its control over the territory it still holds. The proposal appears to have the backing of the United Arab Emirates – which bankrolls the RSF militarily and financially – and at least the tacit backing of Kenya, given the location of the event. However, The Sudanese government has responded by calling for "a decisive international stance" against the RSF’s proposal.
Why it matters: Sudan is at risk of becoming the next Libya – a fractured state with competing governments and foreign backers pulling the strings. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis rages on. The fighting has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions more, and things may take a turn for the worse now that the Trump administration's foreign aid freeze has shuttered US-funded soup kitchens that feed some 800,000 people.FILE PHOTO: Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan arrives at Beijing Capital International Airport before the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Summit, in Beijing, China September 3, 2024.
US sanctions Sudanese leader
The United States on Thursday imposed financial sanctions on Sudan's army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The move came a week after Washington imposedsimilar sanctions on the leader of the rebel Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, whose militia has been warring with government forces for the past 18 months, ina conflict that has killed up to 150,000 people,displaced 11 million, and caused 26 million to go hungry.
Why sanction both sides? US officials said Thursday that the Sudanese army deployedchemical weapons against the RSF at least twice, and there are concerns they may use them in populated areas in the capital, Khartoum. They have also committed humanitarian violations and used starvation as a weapon of war.
As for the RSF, on Jan. 7, Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused the group ofperpetrating a genocide against the non-Arab Masalit people, killing boys and men and committing sexual violence against women and girls because of their ethnicity.
Washington doesn’t want to pick sides but to pressure them into a ceasefire. The RSF currently controlshalf of Sudan, including almost all of Darfur, Khartoum, and southern regions, and there are concerns thata partition of the country would lead to “state disintegration,” provoking an even greater humanitarian catastrophe.
Refugee women stand in the Gorom refugee settlement during Foreign Minister Baerbock's visit.
UN accuses Sudan militia of mass rape
The United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan has just issued a new report accusing the Rapid Support Forces militia of using sexual violence to control civilians in their territory. The report follows one of the deadliest single incidents of the 18-month-old civil war: On Friday, RSF troops killed at least 124 people, injured nearly 200, and detained scores in a village southeast of Khartoum.
Activists told CNN that the RSF deliberately targets communication links, especially Starlink devices, so the true casualty and arrest figures are likely “significantly higher.” The number of detentions is extremely worrying, as the UN’s report found that the RSF routinely forces detained and abducted girls and women into sexual slavery, with victims ranging in age from 8 to 75.
The report also documents the use of gang rape to punish civilians for perceived support for the Sudanese Armed Forces, the old regime, or human rights activism. Victims suffer not only from the violence and trauma but from broader social isolation as many are shunned by their family and peers — or even killed.
What led to the massacre? Last month, the SAF launched an offensive against RSF-held areas in the capital, Khartoum, and pushed into surrounding states including El-Gezira, where Friday’s massacre occurred. As the RSF has pulled back toward its core base in Darfur to the west, its fighters have retaliated against civilians. Omran Abdullah, a senior RSF spokesperson, told Al-Jazeera the victims were fighting for the SAF, however.
The UN is calling for an immediate cease-fire, urgent distribution of food and medicine, a peacekeeping force to protect civilians, and an international judicial process to bring some small measure of justice to victims. As intense and deeply disturbing as the violence has proven, we are not holding our breath for a strong response from the international community.
Plumes of smoke rise during clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the army in Khartoum, Sudan, September 26, 2024.
Sudanese Army launches offensive to retake capital
Residents of Khartoum awoke Thursday to dawn airstrikes and artillery shelling as the country’s armed forces launched an offensive against the rebel Rapid Support Forces militia. The Sudanese Armed Forces have reportedly captured two bridges connecting Khartoum, on the east bank of the Nile, to Omdurman on the west, and are pushing toward the presidential palace amid heavy fighting.
What’s the outlook? Sudan’s military counts on air superiority and artillery, but the RSF’s infantry has historically outmatched them. The RSF also enjoys considerable backing from the United Arab Emirates — a significant military power — as well as Libyan warlord Khalifa Belqasim Omar Haftar and the Russian mercenaries formerly known as the Wagner Group.
Sudan’s armed forces can count on less outside backing: Russia’s involvement has led to a limited deployment of Ukrainian special forces, and Iran has provided some drones (which, ironically, Tehran also provides Russia to fight against Ukraine). Even if they do manage to push the RSF out of Khartoum, Sudan’s military faces steep odds for regaining the whole country.
Is there a chance for peace? Only through negotiation, according to Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the head of Sudan’s military. He called for the end to hostilities and a holistic peace process when he spoke at the United Nations General Assembly in New York Thursday. However, his speech was hardly an olive branch: He accused the RSF of genocide for their slaughter of Black ethnic groups in Darfur province and even alleged that women and children had been sold as chattel in RSF-controlled markets.
We’re watching for who wins the fight in Khartoum, and whether the result of the battle might bring relief closer for the long-suffering Sudanese population.