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After Super Tuesday, US elections inch closer to Biden vs. Trump redux
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Any surprises from Super Tuesday
Yeah, I was surprised that Nikki Haley got Vermont. Honestly, I thought that she'd get swept by Trump. Though Vermont is a tiny, tiny little state. It still counts, but she's still out. She's, of course, suspended her campaign and that is not a surprise. And Biden beat undecided and Dean Phillips, who is basically the equivalent of undecided, pretty decisively in all of his states. So, yes, unless something happens health-wise to either of the candidates over the next months, it is Biden, and it is Trump, and that is it. And we've known that for a good long while now. It doesn't feel so super. It's not what everybody wants, but we still have months and months and months in the world's longest and most expensive election in the world. Yet one more reason why the United States is the most powerful and super dysfunctional democracy.
Is the Red Sea turning into a Houthi stronghold?
I wouldn't say that the Houthis are significantly degraded in their military capabilities by the United States and the UK over the last month now. They are not getting the same level of support, intelligence wise, from the Iranians that they were in previous months. So they are still getting the weapons. Some of those weapons are getting interdicted by the United States and allies. But they are still engaging in strikes in the Red Sea. And that, of course, is making it harder for ships to get through. And it's increasing costs on commodities and it's disrupting supply chains. That's where we are. That's likely to continue. But again, I wouldn't call it a stronghold. The one country that's really hurt in all of this is Sudan, which is experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis in the world right now. And it's made worse by the fact that you can't get any aid through the Red Sea because the Houthis are blocking it.
As the Israel-Hamas war nears the five-month mark, is a cease-fire likely?
Well, Hamas is demanding a permanent cease-fire as part of the terms of getting an agreement with Israel that is absolutely not on the table. Can we get a short-term cease-fire, a six-week cease-fire? I am still optimistic, but I'm telling you, it is getting more challenging. And if Netanyahu is really angry at Benny Gantz for being more solicitous with the Americans and the Brits, and traveling to those countries to engage in diplomacy when Netanyahu told him not to go and when he told the Israeli embassy in those countries not to support him, the potential that you end up not getting a deal because of the Israeli dysfunction in their governance and Hamas continuing to kick the can and put ideas on the table that are absolutely unacceptable to the Israelis, that makes it harder. So I do think that the potential is all falls apart, is creeping up. But if you make me bet by next week, I still think on balance we get a deal. Anyway, let's be hopeful for that.
Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump gestures at a watch party event to mark the Super Tuesday primary elections at his Mar-a-Lago property, in Palm Beach, Florida, on March 5, 2024.
Super Tuesday results shock no one
President Joe Biden and Donald Trump cemented their leads in the 16 primary contests yesterday, and a rematch of 2020 now looks inevitable.
Trump won at least 13 of the votes and is set to clinch the nomination as soon as next week. His biggest competition, Nikki Haley, carved out a surprise win in Vermont, bringing her delegate tally up to 89 compared to Trump’s 995. But she opted out of a victory speech in the Green Mountain State – and is reportedly planning to suspend her campaign.
But her showing in North Carolina signaled that anti-Trump sentiment is alive and well, especially among independents and college-educated Republicans. Trump only narrowly carried Republican primary voters with college degrees in North Carolina, 51% to 45%, and roughly one in four Republicans in the Tar Heel State said they would feel dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination.
Biden blew his rivals out of the water. The president won every race apart from the American Samoa, where he tied with entrepreneur Jason Palmer.
But the trend of Democratic voters choosing “uncommitted” in protest of US policy in Gaza continued on Super Tuesday. Uncommitted earned 19% of the votes in Minnesota, mirroring the results in Michigan last week and potentially threatening the Midwestern “blue wall” that was critical to his victory over Trump in 2020.
Other key races: In the California Senate race, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff boxed out his Democratic rivals and is likely to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein when he faces off against the GOP candidate in the dependably blue state. In Alabama, newly drawn districts look likely to lead to the red state sending two Black representatives to Washington for the first time.
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Are you wondering about other elections around the globe this year? Check out GZERO's guide to the most pivotal votes of 2024.
A voter takes a sticker after casting their ballot during early voting, a day ahead of the Super Tuesday primary election, at the San Francisco City Hall voting center in San Francisco, California, U.S. March 4, 2024.
Why Super Tuesday still matters
Biden and Trump have swept the primaries so far, with Biden running unopposed by any major candidate and Trump beating his sole rival – Nikki Haley – in eight of the nine GOP primaries so far. Trump leads Haley by 201 delegates.
Wait, what’s a delegate? Americans don’t actually vote for presidents. Delegates do.
A ticked box for a candidate on a primary ballot is a vote for a delegate who supports that candidate and will vote for them at the party convention. In the primaries, candidates aim to gain enough delegates to clinch the nomination – 1,215 for the GOP and 1,986 for the Democrats this year.
Why does Super Tuesday matter? This year’s is worth tracking to see what is motivating voters. We’ll be watching to see if the trends in the early primaries continue like Democrats voting against Biden over US policy in Gaza, or if he continues to lose support among young Black and Hispanic voters.
SCOTUS gives Trump the green light. Trump’s legal woes were the greatest threat to his nomination until the Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the 14th Amendment does not give states the ability to bar Trump from the ballot and decided to hear his appeal on presidential immunity – delaying the DC Federal indictment until at least June.
With Trump free of any immediate threat of criminal indictment, he has the potential to be an even bigger threat to Biden, especially among moderates in swing states. Trump is currently seen as more trustworthy than Biden on economy, immigration, and crime, the biggest issues for moderate voters in swing states.
According to Eurasia Group’s US director Jon Lieber, Trump is looking like the new favorite to win the general election.
“It is hard not to look at the public opinion data, Biden‘s low approval ratings, and the fact that his biggest liability – his age – is only going to become more of an issue through the eight months of a difficult campaign, and not see that Trump is the favorite right now.”