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US President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019.
China vows retaliation as US tariffs take effect
With the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs taking effect on Wednesday, the US’s largest trading partner, China, has signaled that it is not backing down from a trade war. Beijing has promised to “fight to the end” after Donald Trump imposed 104% levies on China. Sure enough, the Mainland Kingdom announced on Wednesday that it would impose an additional 50% tariff on US imports, matching Trump’s latest hike.
According to Eurasia Group China expert Lauren Gouldeman, unofficial government-linked sources have indicated that Beijing is prepared to implement six other measures in retaliation, including:
- Halting collaboration on fentanyl-related efforts
- Limiting agricultural exports from the US
- Imposing restrictions on US poultry imports
- Blocking the sale of American services in China, such as design, consulting, financial, and legal services
- Banning US films (Sorry, “A Minecraft Movie”)
- Launching investigations into the intellectual property practices of American companies
These steps aren’t just reactionary — they reflect a strategic shift. “Beijing has been preparing for decoupling for years,” says Gouldeman. “So it will continue to follow its playbook of stepping up support to safeguard the domestic economy and finding alternative markets for trade and investment.”
The EU, meanwhile, has said it is open to working with China to stabilize the global economy, a sign that trade alliances could be realigning to circumvent the US. However, the bloc is also concerned about Chinese products flooding their markets.
Speaking of markets, stocks slid back down the slippery slope on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei closed nearly 4% down, Europe’s Stoxx 600 dropped 3% Wednesday morning, and futures on US indices also headed backward. Tuesday’s brief respite seems like a fever dream.
There is still room to maneuver: Beijing has reiterated its openness to negotiations, provided the US first removes its unilateral tariffs. But the Trump administration has signaled that it will stay the course to reshore supply chains. Going even further, the US president announced yesterday that he will soon announce “major” tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, which had been exempt from the “reciprocal” rates announced on “liberation day.”
We’ll be watching to see whether bilateral trade survives, but in the meantime, China has a well-stocked arsenal of memes going viral, making fun of the American dream of re-industrialization.Longshoremen carry signs and demonstrate to make their voices heard outside Red Hook Terminal in Brooklyn, New York, on Oct. 2, 2024.
Port workers strike fear in consumers and Dems
President Joe Biden has thus far refused to leverage the Taft-Hartley Act to intervene in the dispute, which impacts roughly half of US sea-borne imports, and more than half of the country’s containerized exports. That means supplies ranging from seafood and electronics to fruits and car parts are at risk. Biden’s facing increasing pressure from Democrats who fear that such a massive economic impact could spell trouble for them come Election Day.
North of the border, Canadian leaders are also worried about possible shortages, ranging from bananas to a lack of car parts to keep the auto industry moving. Now, the US strike has been compounded by a 72-hour work stoppage at the Port of Montreal, Canada’s second largest port, over wages and conditions. Similarly, the ILA wants a new agreement over salaries and limits on the use of automation.
Business groups have said that a three-day strike will result in a 15-day delay in unloading containers, which means much of the fresh produce being shipped through the East Coast ports will have no market value.
Canada’s auto parts sector says it will run out of inventory of imported components after a week or two. Since US$2.7 billion of goods and services move across the border every day, consumers can expect rising prices and a shortage of manufactured imports if the strike continues.
A commuter Seabus passes idle shipping cranes towering over stacked containers during a strike by dock workers at Canada's busiest port of Vancouver, British Columbia.
Canadian dock workers to go back to work, but UPS strike still on
Right on the buzzer Thursday, over 7,000 workers at some of Canada’s busiest ports — including Vancouver and Prince Rupert — accepted a settlement proposed by a federal mediator to end their strike.
The dock workers stopped going to work to demand higher wages on July 1st, slowing down $377 million in trade per day. Bringing the two ports to a near halt was nothing to sneeze at, since they handle one-third of goods coming to and from Canada. Economists had warned that if the strikes dragged on much longer, they could have eventually forced the central bank to hike rates even more right when inflation was finally starting to go down.
Meanwhile, in the US, unionized employees of the private shipping firm UPS are still counting the days until their contract expires on July 31st after failing to reach a deal over better pay and working conditions. UPS workers move merchandise worth an estimated 6% of America's GDP, and if the 68% represented by the main union don't show up, only 160,000 workers will be left to do the work normally done by 500,000. It could be the biggest single-employer strike in US history.
The twin strikes are very bad news for the Canadian and US economies right when broken supply chains were just beginning to recover from COVID, and inflation was starting to ease. Those trends could be reversed if more employers and unions in this crucial industry don't find common ground soon.
No one wants a throwback to late 2021-style inflation supercharged by broken supply chains.Episode 8: Global food (in)security
Listen: Following shortages that came out of the COVID pandemic as well as the war in Ukraine, the dual food problems of affordability and availability persist. While temporary impacts may be waning, the experts also discuss the longer-term impacts of the global food production system on the environment and what will - or won't - be sustainable going forward, including the food system's massive dependence on fossil fuels. In the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, Peter Ceretti, Director of Global Macro Geo Strategy at Eurasia Group, Harlin Singh, Global Head of Sustainable Investing, and Malcolm Spittler, Global Investment Strategist, and Senior US Economist, both at Citi Global Wealth Investments, discuss the latest causes and ripple effects of food shortages around the globe.
In Planting for Tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security, a report from Citi Global Wealth and Eurasia Group/GZERO Media, we take a deep dive into the challenges and the innovations in sustainable agriculture. This newsletter gives you an essential look into the future of food.
Listen:"We need to keep that investment flowing to come up with better ways to do this so that everyone is fed within the constraints of what the planet is able to bear," says Peter Ceretti, Director of Global Macro Geo Strategy at Eurasia Group.
In the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Citi Global Wealth Investments, Ceretti is joined by Harlin Singh, Global Head of Sustainable Investing, and Malcolm Spittler, Global Investment Strategist and Senior US Economist, both at Citi Global Wealth Investments, to discuss the latest causes and ripple effects of food shortages around the globe.
Following shortages that came out of the COVID pandemic as well as the war in Ukraine, the dual food problems of affordability and availability persist. While temporary impacts may be waning, the experts also discuss the longer-term impacts of the global food production system on the environment and what will - or won't - be sustainable going forward, including the food system's massive dependence on fossil fuels.
This episode is moderated by Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability.

Peter Ceretti
Director, Global Macro-Geostrategy, Eurasiia Group

Harlin Singh
Global Head of Sustainable Investing, Citi Global Wealth Investments

Malcolm Spittler
Global Investment Strategist and Senior US Economist, Citi Global Wealth Investments

Shari Friedman
Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, Eurasia Group
Episode 5: Energy transition today
Listen: "It actually all comes down to one thing and that's money," says Raad Alkadiri, Managing Director of Energy, Climate and Resources at Eurasia Group. "Will there be the money for investment in renewables, in energy efficiency made available? And I'm not just talking about the industrialized world, I'm talking about globally."
In the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Citi Global Wealth Investments, Alkadiri is joined by Malcolm Spittler, Global Investment Strategist and Senior US Economist at Citi Global Wealth Investments, to look at where the energy transition to renewable fuels stands globally, after setbacks from the pandemic and geopolitical instability.
They discuss the increasing need for energy security being a big driver for renewable energy in regions like Europe, how the war in Ukraine is still affecting energy markets, and what kinds of investments need to happen in technology and infrastructure to realize more sustainable and cleaner energy globally.

Malcolm Spittler
Global Investment Strategist & Senior US Economist, Citi Global Wealth Investments

Raad Alkadiri
Managing Director of Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

Shari Friedman
Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, Eurasia Group
- Episode 7: Future-proofing: How we fix broken supply chains ›
- Episode 9: US/China power struggle, the global political balance, and your finances ›
- Episode 1: Should I STILL be worried? ›
- S3 Episode 9: US/China power struggle, the global political balance, and your finances - GZERO Media ›
- Episode 6: Can the US and China find common ground? - GZERO Media ›
- Episode 7: How AI is changing our economy - GZERO Media ›
Episode 4: Broken (supply) chains
Listen: "Other than the impacts of the pandemic, which are easing, and from Russia/Ukraine, I'd say that the greatest risk to global supply chains today and moving forward will likely be from the US-China relationship, and the movement towards selective decoupling," says Jon Lang, Director for Trade and Supply Chains at Eurasia Group.
In the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Citi Global Wealth Investments, Lang is joined by Charlie Reinhard, Head of Investment Strategy for North America at Citi Global Wealth Investments, to discuss how global supply chains have largely adapted to and moved on from changes that occurred during the global pandemic.
While there are some impacts from the war in Ukraine and pent up demand, they also look at how tension between the US and China, as well as increasing regulation and calls for transparency, are changing the shape of supply chains as well as the economy as a whole.

Jon Lang
Director for Trade and Supply Chains, Eurasia Group

Charlie Reinhard
Head of Investment Strategy, North America, Citi Global Wealth Investments

Shari Friedman
Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, Eurasia Group
- The Graphic Truth: The great supply chain squeeze ›
- Episode 7: Future-proofing: How we fix broken supply chains ›
- Episode 9: US/China power struggle, the global political balance, and your finances ›
- Episode 1: Should I STILL be worried? ›
- S3 Episode 9: US/China power struggle, the global political balance, and your finances - GZERO Media ›
- Episode 6: Can the US and China find common ground? - GZERO Media ›
- Episode 8: Global food (in)security - GZERO Media ›
- Episode 7: How AI is changing our economy - GZERO Media ›
The Graphic Truth: The great supply chain squeeze
The pandemic sent global supply chains into a tizzy. Then, just as economies were embarking on their post-COVID economic recoveries, Russia invaded Ukraine, upending the global grain trade and sending supply chains spiraling further. Supply chain frictions have a lot of unintended consequences: Brexit-related supply chain issues made it hard for some Brits to get their hands on a pint of beer, while China’s punitive zero-COVID policy drove the auto industry – among others – into a full-blown crisis. We take a look at the Global Supply Chain Index from 2000-2022 along with key global economic milestones.
Episode 7: Future-proofing: How we fix broken supply chains
Listen: “Envision supply chains like a strand of Christmas lights. If one light goes out, then the whole strand will stop working,” said Eurasia Group’s Christina Huguet.
On the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, we’re talking about the moment those lights went out—as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold and disrupted shipping, manufacturing, and labor all at once—and what it will take more than two years later to turn those lights back on and create more resilient global supply chains.
This episode is moderated by Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, and features David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Investments at Citi Global Wealth; and Christina Huguet, Industrial and Consumer Analyst at Eurasia Group.

Shari Friedman
Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, Eurasia Group

David Bailin
Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Investments, Citi Global Wealth

Christina Huguet
Industrial and Consumer Analyst, Eurasia Group