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FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' face appears as a video plays on a screen, during a rally at Huntington Place in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.
Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states that could decide the election
The US election will likely be decided in the seven highly competitive swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Within these, there are various combinations that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could secure to make it to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all the states that solidly and likely lean their way, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Here’s a roadmap of each candidate’s route through the swing states to the White House, and the key voters and issues in each state, in order of their number of electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important battleground state because it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, and it's hard to imagine either candidate winning the White House without it. According to calculations by election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Pennsylvania historically trended slightly blue, but in recent years the state has purpled — with a divided state House and a series of razor-thin margins in general elections. That was until the 2022 governor’s race in which Democrat Josh Shapiro won by almost fifteen points against a Trump-aligned Republican, and his approval ratings in the state remain high.
When it comes to the issues and key demographics, Pennsylvania is a microcosm of America. The economy is transitioning from manufacturing to newer industries, it has a massive energy sector – where fracking is a major issue, and agriculture is still the state’s second largest industry. Demographically, the majority of the population is white, but there are growing immigrant communities. Twelve percent of the population is black, just under the national total of 13%. The two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, lean Democratic, and the vast rural stretches between them are dominated by Republicans.
Harris currently leads by less than 1 point, meaning it’s a dead tie. In 2020, Joe Biden only won the state by 1.2 points.
Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, and after years of Republican dominance, the state’s diversifying population led to Biden’s narrowest win in 2020, at just 0.2 points, the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state in nearly three decades.
It has also been the site of a battle over whether votes would be hand-counted on election night, but a judge struck down the proposal this week, ruling it would be too disruptive.
Just under half of the Peach State’s population is non-white. Thirty-three percent of the population is Black, and both candidates are vying to win their vote. Strong Black voter turnout – key to Biden’s Georgia victory in 2020 – was credited at least in part to the mobilization efforts of Stacey Abrams, who is also campaigning on Harris’ behalf this election. But Trump is trying to win those voters to his side by focusing on his economic policies, illegal immigration, and inflation.
Harris is also campaigning heavily on the state’s abortion restrictions, in recognition that women, who comprise 51% of Georgia’s population, could also play a crucial role in winning the state.
As of now, the state is leaning back toward its Republican roots. Trump is ahead there by two points.
North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes,has been won by Republicans in every presidential election since 2012. But right now, the state is a toss-up, with Trump ahead by less than one point.
Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 by just 70,000 votes, which has buoyed Democrats' hopes that this “purple” state could be winnable this year. As the state is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, Harris is trying to boost recovery efforts. Trump has criticized and spread misinformation about FEMA not doing enough – or even being completely corrupt. He is also campaigning on illegal immigration and the economy.
Next up is Michigan, which has 15 electoral college votes, and because it has the largest proportion of Arab Americans, it has become symbolic of a nationwide backlash over Biden’s support for Israel amid the war in Gaza. During the Democratic primary in the state, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots as an attempt to push the US government to halt its military aid to Israel.
Most of these voters realize a Trump administration would be even more supportive of Israel. But they feel unrecognized by the DNC, especially after the party decided not to have a pro-Palestine speaker at the DNC. As a result, the appeal of voting third-party, or not at all, is growing in the Great Lakes State.
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is the focal point of the nation’s immigration debate thanks to its 372-mile-long border with Mexico. Trump is showing strength in this Sun Belt state and is ahead by 2 points, in large part because of support from the state’s Hispanic voters. At his rallies in the state, Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris’ record on immigration, because she was given a role by President Joe Biden to try to ease the border crisis.
However, Democrats are banking that ballot measures codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies, before the issue of whether to add the right to an abortion to the state constitution landed on the ballot to be decided in November.
Wisconsin is a key component of the Democrats' clearest path to victory – which would be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Like in 2020, it has the potential to be a “tipping point” giving either candidate the edge. Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state. But it became a big-time battleground after Trump eked out a victory there in 2016.
The state is overwhelmingly white, and white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates. Notably, Harris garnered the endorsement of the local Teamsters union in Wisconsin even after national union representatives declined to back a candidate in the race and released internal data showing a majority of members backed Trump.
But another important group is independent voters. While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, the electorate is fairly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a notable independent population in between. These independent voters helped Trump win the state in 2016 and helped Biden take the reins in 2020.
The biggest issues in the state are the economy, crime, and abortion. As things stand now, neither candidate has a lead, with Harris ahead by less than one vote.
Last and with the least electoral weight, is Nevada. ThisSun Belt swing state is tricky to predict because it has more registered independent voters than Democrats or Republicans, but Harris currently leads – if you can call it that – by less than 1 percentage point. However, with just 6 electoral votes, it is much less likely to be decisive.
Once decidedly blue, the Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins since 2000. It is also the most diverse battleground state, where the economy is a major issue, and Harris has shrunk Trump’s lead since she took to the ticket.
Even though the US economy has shown strong growth and job creation since Biden took the presidency, the post-COVID recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere. At 5.1%, the state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Trump has been campaigning in the state on lowering taxes and easing regulations.
It’s war game time. Harris’ most obvious strategy is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But this would get her to exactly 270 votes if she won all of the non-swing states Biden won in 2020. That means she would be highly vulnerable because any misstep, even just losing Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, could lose her the presidency.
If she loses Pennsylvania, she’d still need to pick up one of the two Sun-Belt states as well as one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she carries Michigan and Wisconsin. There’s also the chance she will repeat Biden’s 2020 victory, winning Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.
Trump’s easiest path to victory is blocking Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. To do this, Trump would need to improve on his 2020 performance in the suburbs. But like Harris, this strategy of winning exactly 270 leaves no room for error. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he could reach 270 by winning the two swing states where he is ahead the most, Georgia and Arizona, as well as Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan.