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A photo shows music and entertainment arena facility “Sphere” displays messages of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris prior to the Presidential election in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States of America on October 30, 2024.
The US election: Down to the wire
Welcome to the final sprint of the 2024 US presidential election! As the clock ticks, Democrats are celebrating an Iowa poll that shows Republican candidate Donald Trump trailing Democrat Kamala Harris 44-47 among likely voters in the supposedly safe red state.
The Selzer poll, considered one of the most reliable in the nation, found that women are driving the shift toward Harris in the Hawkeye State. It comes in the wakeof Trump’s promise this week to protect women “whether they like it or not” as well asracist and misogynistic comments by speakers at the Republicans’ Madison Square Garden rally last Sunday that Trump later termeda “lovefest.”
Not to be outdone, Trump managed to hit a new low on Friday,simulating oral sex on a malfunctioning microphone in Milwaukee. On Sunday, he held rallies in three swing states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Meanwhile, Harris appeared on “Saturday Night Live” to lean into her “joyful warrior” persona, mirroring herself against Maya Rudolph, the comedian who famously impersonates her. Offscreen, she made multiple stops in Michigan.
On Monday, the campaigns will make their final efforts to rally voters in key swing states. Trump will hold rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Harris is scheduled to appear in both Philadelphia, where she will be joined byOprah Winfrey, and Pittsburgh. Clearly, we’re all watching Pennsylvania.
Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk speaks as Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump looks on during a rally at the site of the July assassination attempt against Trump, in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 5, 2024.
Election Countdown: Harris, Trump, and Musk focus in on the swing states
It's two weeks until Election Day, and both candidates are scrambling to pull ahead in the seven swing states that could decide the election.
Kamala Harris hit three battleground states on Monday – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – accompanied by former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney. The two aimed to win over Trump-skeptic Republicans and independent voters in the suburbs to secure a “blue wall” against the GOP-dominated rural stretches of the states.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump campaigned in western North Carolina, criticizing FEMA’s response to Hurricane Helene in a region where many people are still without water, internet, and power. These counties are also 61% Republican, and Trump is trying to galvanize residents by attacking the government’s response to the storm, baselessly accusing FEMA of spending funds on undocumented immigrants, “They don’t have any money ... It’s all gone. They’ve spent it on illegal migrants, many of them are murderers.”
Monday was also the deadline to register to vote in Pennsylvania, the election’s most critical swing state and the site of Elon Musk’s controversial sweepstakes giving $1 million to one registered voter who signs his petition every day until the election. The scheme is raising alarm bells among election law experts because it could be considered financially incentivizing registering to vote or voting, which is illegal. But on its face, it is only a reward for signing a petition that affirms the rights to free speech and to bear arms.
Its potential impact is up for debate. Of the 9.95 million people of voting age in Pennsylvania, 90.8% of them are already registered, a slight uptick from the 2020 presidential election. However, it undoubtedly raises awareness and anticipation of the upcoming vote, which could lead to more of Musk’s fans — who disproportionately lean to the right — casting their ballots.
Wondering which swing states each candidate needs to win to secure the White House? Read this for everything you need to know.Political mini crossword: These states be swingin'
Join the race to solve our 2024 swing state crossword!
Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris helps out at a food distribution center during a visit to storm-damaged areas in the wake of Hurricane Helene, in Augusta, Ga., on Oct. 2, 2024.
Disaster and democracy: How Helene could sway the vote in battleground states
With just over a month before Election Day, Hurricane Helene – which killed at least 125 people and left disaster zones in 66 counties across the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida – could affect the vote.
The storm has halted mail service and disrupted absentee voting. Thousands of polling stations are flooded or inaccessible, with early voting already underway in North Carolina.
The portion of the Tar Heel State most affected by the storm contains almost 1 million voters. In 2020, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in North Carolina by fewer than 80,000 votes, his smallest margin of victory in any state. Asheville, one of the strongest hit areas, is a Democratic stronghold. But outside of that, the storm disproportionately affected rural counties where Trump has the advantage – and may have the most to lose.
It also gives the current administration a reason to shower these swing states with aid and attention. President Joe Biden visited North Carolina on Wednesday and has deployed 1,000 US soldiers to assist in recovery efforts. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris was in Georgia on Wednesday to discuss recovery and meet with people impacted by the storm. That being said, if their response is seen as insufficient, Harris could be punished at the polls.
Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith says that he is watching out for two things: “whether there is a negative public reaction to the floods in a way that hurts the incumbent party, i.e. Harris, and whether we do see any signs this will depress turnout in rural areas.”
Were you impacted by the hurricane? Please share your story with us here.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Harris for President Campaign Rally on Tuesday July 23, 2024 at West Allis Central High School in West Allis, Wis.
Obamas endorse Kamala Harris for president
Barack and Michelle ObamaendorsedKamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for US president on Friday, joining other high-profile Democratic Party leaders in backing the vice president’s bid for the White House.
“We called to say Michelle and I couldn’t be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval Office,” the former president told Harris.
The announcement capped a big first week for Harris. Her campaign raised a whopping $231 million in just a few days, and Harris has already started to narrow Donald Trump’s lead in key swing states. Although she is still behind in four of the five states, she has substantiallyclosed the gap left by President Joe Biden.
Trump’s biggest lead is in Arizona, where he stands 5 points above Harris. But when Biden was the nominee, Trump was ahead by 10 points. The former president is now ahead of Harris by only 2 points in Georgia and Pennsylvania; by 1 point in Michigan; and in Wisconsin, the candidates are tied.
As Harris narrows the gap, she is alsobreaking fundraising records and galvanizing youth voters. But it is too soon to tell whether this momentum is sustainable or just a short-term swell of enthusiasm following Biden’s decision to exit the race.
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Interested in who Harris might choose as her vice-presidential running mate? Click here to learn about the contenders.
What Florida's abortion rulings mean for the 2024 US election
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we are watching in US Politics this week: Abortion.
Abortion is the big story in US politics this week with the Florida state Supreme Court ruling that a ballot initiative that would protect access to abortion up until fetal viability will be on the ballot in abortion in Florida this year. Democrats are excited about this ruling because it was starting to look like Florida was increasingly out of reach for them.
Republicans now out register Democratic voters in the state by over 800,000 registered voters, which is a flip from a decade ago when Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 500,000 registered voters. Florida is looking like more and more of a red state with a massive 20 point victory for Republican Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2022 midterm elections. That's what was making Democrats feel like it wouldn't be a very competitive state in this presidential cycle.
However, with abortion on the ballot, they now see an opportunity for outside groups to come in and spend a bunch of money who otherwise wouldn't have sent money there, forcing Republicans to respond by potentially wasting money there. The state is probably a little bit too red for it to truly be competitive for President Biden in this election cycle.
But this abortion referendum story is going to play out across the country. Democratic activists have the opportunity to get abortion on the ballot in two critical swing states of Nevada and Arizona. But it's unlikely they would show up in the other swing states of Wisconsin or Michigan, because Wisconsin had a recent state Supreme Court decision about it. And Michigan had an abortion referendum in 2022. That doesn't mean they can't find other ways to make this election about access to abortion, which has been a very positive issue for Democrats.
There have been seven state referendums since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. And in each of those, the electorate shifted significantly to the left from what they did in the 2020 results, even in deep red states like Kansas and Kentucky. So this is going to be an important issue to keep watching throughout the election. And could be one of the wild cards that helps Joe Biden overcome the bad polls that he's been experiencing in recent weeks.
How should the media handle election night?
"It's very important that if the election is very close and it comes down to say those Midwestern states, which are going to count their ballots slow, that the message is, 'too early to call.'" Election law expert Rick Hasen weighs in on how the media – both traditional outlets and social media – should handle election night coverage. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World.
Watch the episode: What could go wrong in the US election? Rick Hasen on nightmare scenarios & challenges