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Putin trolls Europe about "the master" Trump
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does Putin mean when he says Europe "will stand at the feet of the master"?
It means that he loves to troll his adversaries. Don't you remember when he said that he actually thought Biden would be a better president from Russia's perspective than Trump? He trolls. It's all misinformation. It's propaganda. It's all served to undermine and show that he's powerful, and he can say whatever he wants. And of course, he would love to see a fight between the Americans and their allies, whether it's the Nordics on Greenland or it's Canada on 51st state, or it's Panama on the canal, or it's Europe on tariffs. And he wants to undermine the countries that gets a divide and conquer kind of response from Putin. And that is what he is doing when he trolls the Europeans.
What's next for Panama after deciding to exit China's Belt and Road Initiative?
Well, certainly, of all the countries that are facing a deeply asymmetric relationship on the back of threats from President Trump, Panama is high on that list. And they really are trying to find a way to avoid tariffs and avoid the Americans squeezing them on the canal. And an easy way to do that, because they've heard this now directly from Trump and from Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is that the Chinese have too much influence over transit. And that is particularly true through these port facilities that a Hong Kong-based company, read, China, is in charge of. And so, they are opening investigations into the contract and into how they engage there. And they're also saying they'll pull out of Belt and Road. All of that is clearly going to upset and antagonize the Chinese. And I think that the Panamanians are very, very comfortable showing that they are going to orient much more towards the United States, given how much more they rely on the Americans.
How would a potential Turkey defense pact with Syria reshape power dynamics in the Middle East?
Given who's on the ground in Syria and the fact that the Americans are likely to pull out the over 2,000 troops they have there, and that Trump has said it's really up to Turkey to maintain that relationship, they were the ones that were closest to the rebels that ended up defeating, overthrowing Assad's regime. Not surprised at all that that is where the diplomacy is heading. But that doesn't mean that it's going to be stable, and it certainly doesn't mean that the Kurds on the ground are going to be handled well. And that will be what we need to watch carefully. But Turkey, a NATO ally that has a lot of influence across the region and particularly now on the ground with Syria, I think that'll be relatively stable given the support from the United States. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, right, and President Donald Trump's envoy Richard Grenell shake hands at the Miraflores Palace, in Caracas, Venezuela, on Jan. 31, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela releases Americans, Balochistan fighting kills Pakistani soldiers, Syrian leader visits Saudi Arabia, Queensland faces floods, Zelensky decries airstrikes, Groundhog sees shadow
6: On Friday, Venezuela released six detained Americans, sending them home with Richard Grenell, the US envoy for special missions, following his talks with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. President Donald Trump said Saturday that Venezuela had agreed to take back the Venezuelan migrants facing deportation from the US and to “supply the transportation.”
18: Pakistan said Saturday that 18 of its soldiers were killed while fighting separatist insurgents who had set up a roadblock on a key highway in the restive Balochistan region. Twenty-three rebels were also killed in the fighting, and the roadblock has been removed, according to security forces.
1: Syria’s newly named interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, on Sunday made his first international trip since leading his rebel group in the overthrow of former President Bashar Assad in December. Al-Sharaa landed in Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who pledged his support for Syria.
4.2: Northern Queensland, Australia, is facing its worst flooding in 60 years. One woman has died and thousands have fled their homes as 4.2 feet of rain fell on the region over the weekend. More rain was predicted for Monday.
1,400: Russia launched more than 1,400 airstrikes against Ukraine last week, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is appealing for more Western support. On Saturday, he accused Moscow of hitting its own civilians in the Kursk region.
6: If you’re tired of the cold weather, this is going to come as bad news: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Sunday, Groundhog Day, and predicted six more weeks of winter. Bundle up!Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, speaks to the media in December 2024.
Syria’s leader declared president, constitution scrapped
Syria’s de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa was on Wednesday declared president by a group of top military commanders.
The current constitution was suspended, and al-Sharaa was authorized to form a “temporary” legislative council to govern during a transitional period before elections are held.
The duration of this “transitional period” has not been specified. Al-Sharaa, who led the campaign to topple the Assad regime two months ago, has previously suggested that writing a new constitution and holding elections could take between three and four years.
The big question: The move provides some clarity about the power structures that will govern Syria as it seeks to rebuild its economy and society after decades of dictatorship and more than a dozen years of civil war.
But it heightens the focus on al-Sharaa’s intentions. Skeptics have wondered about his commitment to establishing a pluralistic society in a country marked by sectarian and ethnic divisions. His background is, after all, as a jihadist fighter whose organization, the al-Qaida offshoot Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, remains on the US terrorism list.
In recent years, he has styled himself as a statesman, dropping his nom de guerre, swapping fatigues for suits, and calling for good government.
Now his power has been made official. How will he use it?
EU rolls back Syria sanctions for economic rebound
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Is the European Union opening up to cooperation with the new government or regime in Damascus?
Yes, they are gradually. The foreign minister of the European Union took the decision early this week to start to ease sanctions on Syria that have been in place for years. And that is very important in order to start to get the economy going in the country. And that, of course, is very important in terms to start addressing all of the humanitarian needs. And also, eventually getting the economy going so that at some point in time perhaps people can start to move back to the country that they were forced to flee from during the years of civil war and repression.
Why was the prime minister of Serbia sacked?
That was part of a bigger move, defensive move, you can say by the president, by President Vučić. He has been under intense pressure due the last few months. There was an accident in Novi Sad, the second-biggest city that was blamed on the roof fell in, and that was blamed on bad construction and corruption. That has crystallized massive opposition to his regime, which has been there for a long time and is seen as increasingly authoritarian. So, pressure has been building up and he was now forced to concede sacking the prime minister and announcing new elections in April. So new elections in April in Serbia. There will be elections in Kosovo before that. There will be elections also in Albania. So, a lot of things are in flux in the Southern Balkans.
Syria's police force.
Is Syria embracing sharia?
Yes, this is raising eyebrowsin diplomatic circles, with some expressing fear it could presage a larger role of Islamic law in Syria’s future constitution and governance. Such an emphasis would deepen divisions between religious hardliners and minority populations while also jeopardizing relations with Western governments. The focus on sharia has deterred some potential recruits, particularly Alawites, Christians, and Druze, as well as secular Syrians, from applying.
Syria’s police force faces overwhelming challenges: Stations ransacked after Assad’s fall are now sparsely staffed, and crime is rampant. The recruitment drive has drawn over 200,000 applicants, but only 500 officers have graduated so far. Training currently lasts just 10 days, focusing on weapons and religious principles, and there are plans to extend it as security improves. We’ll be watching whetherthe emphasis on sharia fades — or grows — as HTS consolidates control.
FILE PHOTO: Children eat bread on a street near a flag adopted by the new Syrian rulers, after the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, December 24, 2024.
Syria seeks sanction relief
Diplomats and foreign ministers from17 Arab and EU states convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday to discuss the lifting of economic sanctions on Syria, originally imposed during the rule of ousted president Bashar al-Assad. Removing the sanctionsis key to reconstruction efforts for Damascus but will hinge on the new government’s ability to guarantee human rights in the country.
After the meeting, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbockadvocated maintaining sanctions against Assad’s allies but alleviating restrictions that affect the general population. Baerbock alsopledged an additional $51.2 million in aid for essential services. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also announceda meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels on Jan. 27 to discuss further relief measures.
As for the US, while it has not lifted sanctions, last week it issueda six-month exemption for certain transactions with Syrian governing institutions to expedite humanitarian assistance.
We’re watching whether those measures will be extended under the new administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who in December said that Syria’s change of regime is “not our fight.” Trump also remarked that“Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria” – something thatSaudi Arabia may take issue with as it positions itself as a key regional player in Syria’s rebuilding.
Kurdish fighters from the People's Protection Units (YPG) take part in a military parade as they celebrate victory over the Islamic state, in Qamishli, Syria March 28, 2019.
Will Turkey attack Syria’s Kurds?
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan threatened this week to launch attacks against Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria. During an interview broadcast late Tuesday, he said that if the US-backed paramilitary People’s Protection Units (usually known by their Kurdish initialism YPG) fail to lay down their arms and expel foreign fighters, Turkey “will do what’s necessary,” including “a military operation.”
Wait, aren’t the YPG and Turkey both US allies? Yes, but that hasn’t stopped Turkey from attacking the Kurds in the past, as Fidan pointed out. “This is what our national security requires,” he said.
Ankara has a longstanding internal conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party on its side of the border, which is also considered a terrorist group by the US and Turkey’s European allies.
Attacking the YPG is unlikely to trigger a significant US response, and Turkey would also like to bolster the newly friendly regime in Damascus led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Washington is slowly warming to HTS as well. The Biden administration moved to lift some restrictions on humanitarian aid sent to Syria on Monday, though it stopped short of fully lifting sanctions. We’re watching for HTS to play nice in the short term as it seeks to get out from under the restrictions imposed on the regime of Bashar Assad.
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025.
Lebanon tries, yet again, to elect a president
Lebanon’s fractious parliament will try on Thursday to do something it has failed at a dozen times over the past two years: elect a president.
How it works: In Lebanon, parliament chooses the president. And by power-sharing tradition, the post is held by a Christian – the Prime Minister is Sunni, and the speaker of parliament is Shia.
The leading candidates: Army commander Joseph Aoun, former Finance Minister Jihad Azour, and state security boss Elias al-Baysari.
The backdrop: recent years have been brutal for Lebanon, crippled by economic crisis and ravaged by Israel’s pummeling of Hezbollah, long the most powerful military and political force in the country. The collapse of the meddlesome Assad regime in Syria adds to the sense of both uncertainty and possibility.
“The election provides a good opportunity to gauge Hezbollah’s power,” says Hani Sabra, founder of Alef Advisory, a region-focused consultancy. The group has repeatedly failed to get its own candidates into the post but could still block figures it doesn’t like.
The stakes: Lebanon badly needs foreign support to rebuild. But the US and other key foreign donors have conditioned aid on the election of a president and the formation of a stable government to replace the rickety caretaker committee that is currently in power. In addition, Sabra says, that would boost chances of renewing the 60-day Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which expires on Jan. 26.
After twelve failed attempts, Lebanon really needs a baker’s dozen to be the charm.