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What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?
Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.
Will Syria's newly formed transitional government be enough for Arab and Western leaders to lift sanctions and restore diplomatic ties?
I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? And there, there's a huge question because this is a completely untested government, completely inexperienced, no governance background, very little background in terms of military stability, especially with all of the new members, militias that have been integrated from across a very diverse country. And a lot of internal opponents that are sitting back and waiting to fight. So I'm more worried about that than I am about international support. I think largely the international support they need is going to be there.
Why does Trump want to take Greenland?
I have no idea. Maybe somebody showed him a globe from the top and he saw how big it was, and he's like, "Oh, that'd be kind of cool to have." It's not like there's anything he needs that he can't get directly from negotiating with Denmark. Plenty of willingness to allow the US to have expanded bases, troops on the ground. Plenty of willingness from other countries in the region to do more in terms of patrolling, build more icebreakers to deal with. The Finnish President, Alex Stubb, who just went to see him golfing with him, spent seven hours over the weekend moving in that direction. But you saw from Vice President Vance, he's like, "Well, the President wants it. So of course I got to respond to that." Yeah, but they don't have any reason. And I do think that it is sufficiently blowing up in their faces on the ground in Denmark and in Greenland, that the Danes understand not to make a big deal out of this and it will eventually blow over. It is annoying to them symbolically, but it doesn't matter all that much. In that regard, we can spend a little bit less time on it. Okay, that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa speaks during a Ministerial formation of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic, in Damascus, Syria, on March 29, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Syria gets new Cabinet, US steps up Houthi strikes, Top US vaccine official resigns, Hamas offers hostages for ceasefire, Trump eyes third term, Kashmir violence turns deadly, Trump shrugs off high car prices
23: Syria has a new transitional Cabinet. Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa swore in his new 23-member team on Saturday, replacing caretakers who had been in those roles since former President Bashar Assad was ousted in December. While the new Cabinet is largely filled with al-Sharaa allies, it is religiously and ethnically diverse, a sign that Syria is moving forward to rebuild in the post-Assad and post-civil war era.
1: At least one person was killed amid suspected US strikes against Yemen’s Houthis on Saturday. According to the Associated Press, the Trump administration has embarked on an expanded anti-Houthi campaign in recent days, targeting ranking rebel personnel. Satellite photos also reportedly show an airstrip off Yemen that looks prepared to accept flights and B-2 bombers.
100,000: The FDA’s top vaccine official resigned on Friday after being told he could quit or be fired. Dr. Peter Marks stressed that he was worried that Robert F. Kennedy’s aggressive stance on vaccination would dangerously undermine public confidence in vaccines against common diseases such as measles, which is spreading in the US and has “killed more than 100,000 unvaccinated children last year in Africa and Asia.” An HHS spokesperson, meanwhile, said Friday that Dr. Marks didn’t belong at the FDA if he was not committed to supporting the “restoration of science to its golden standard and advocate for radical transparency.”
5-50: On Saturday, Hamas offered to release 5 hostages during the three-day Muslim holiday Eid al-Fitr, which began Sunday, to secure a 50-day ceasefire. The offer came in response to a proposal the militants received from Egypt and Qatar. Israel offered a counterproposal in coordination with Washington, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is demanding the release of 10 of the remaining 24 hostages believed to still be alive.
3: US President Donald Trump mused on Sunday that he’s not joking about finding “methods” to serve a third term, including being elected VP and then having the president resign to become president by succession. While some Trump loyalists like Steve Bannon believe a third term might be possible, constitutional experts warn there’s no “one weird trick” to bypass the 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two elected terms.
6: Four police officers and two suspected rebels — dubbed terrorists for their opposition to Indian rule — were reportedly killed Saturday morning in Jammu and Kashmir. Thousands of people have died in battles between rebels and Indian security forces over the past few decades, but violence has lessened in recent years.
15,000: How much will US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico drive up car prices? Goldman Sachs estimates a bump of between $5,000 and $15,000 per vehicle, depending on the brand and model. But Trump told NBC News on Saturday that he “couldn’t care less” if car prices soared, maintaining that manufacturers should build their vehicles in the US.
Syrian troops sit atop a tank as they head toward the Syrian-Lebanese border following clashes with Lebanese soldiers and armed groups, in Qusayr, Syria, March 17, 2025.
Hezbollah takes on Syria’s new army
Fighting erupted across the border that separates Syria and Lebanon over the weekend. The new government in Syria claims the militant group Hezbollah triggered this violence by crossing into Syrian territory on Saturday, kidnapping three Syrian soldiers, and then executing them inside Lebanon. Hezbollah denies the allegation, and Lebanon’s state media blames the killing on local clans and militias. The two sides agreed to halt the fighting late Monday night.
The Syrian government and Hezbollah have historically acted as allies, but two important changes have occurred. First, Israel has pounded Hezbollah positions inside Lebanon in recent months, badly weakening the group and killing most of its leadership. Second, the current Syrian regime is composed of fighters who defeated the government of Bashar Assad, which had been Hezbollah’s reliable regional partner. Assad now lives in Moscow under Russian President Vladimir Putin’s protection.
Hezbollah has good reason for frustration. In the past, when its fighters needed more weapons and materiel, Iran provided them by sending reinforcements across Syrian territory. The new Syrian government has severed that channel. The Lebanese and Syrian armies say they have increased cross-border communication to restore calm, though Hezbollah representatives remain defiant.
People in Damascus celebrate after the Kurdish-led and U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to integrate into Syria's new state institutions.
Syrian government inks key deal with the Kurds
In a big step toward trying to unify post-Assad Syria, the government reached an agreement with the SDF, a US-backed Kurdish militia that has controlled large swathes of northeast Syria for nearly a decade.
President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF leader Mazloum Abdi inked the deal on Monday.
What was agreed: The SDF will integrate “civilian and military institutions” into the Syrian state by year’s end. This includes border controls and, importantly, oil fields, that before the war generated a fifth of Syria’s official government revenue.
The eight-point pact also guarantees the political rights of all Syrians, regardless of background, facilitates the return of Kurdish refugees, and recognizes the Kurds as “an indigenous community.”
The Syrian context: Last weekend, sectarian violence exploded in western Syria when Assadist holdouts from the Alawite community attacked a state checkpoint. Some government forces, dominated by al-Sharaa’s HTS jihadist militia, responded with a rampage of sectarian reprisals that left more than 1,000 Alawites and Christians dead.
The SDF deal, with its broader language about rights and citizenship in the new Syria, is a positive step. But implementing will not be easy in a context where the fledgling post-Assad state is still trying to solidify control, bolster stability, and navigate ferocious sectarian and ethnic crosscurrents. It will require good faith from both sides, and firm external support.
The Turkish angle: Ankara, a backer of the new Syrian government, has long disliked the SDF, which is linked to Kurdish PKK militants in Turkey. But with the PKK now laying down arms after 40 years of conflict, a bigger settlement between Kurds, Turkey, and the new Syria could be afoot.Syrian fighters and civilians carry the coffin of a member of the Syrian security forces during his funeral in Hama province after he and 11 other colleagues were killed in an ambush by groups loyal to the ousted President Bashar al-Assad in Latakia.
Sectarian violence erupts in Syria – in former Assad stronghold
The fighting started when some of Assad’s supporters — many of whom now feel under threat in this new Syria — ambushed a government security patrol near Latakia, prompting reprisals from Sunni militants in the Alawite heartland. New leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seized power just three months ago, urged combatants to drop their weapons.
“We find ourselves facing a new danger — attempts by remnants of the former regime and their foreign backers to incite new strife and drag our country into a civil war,” al-Sharaa said Sunday, amid reports that foreign fighters were involved. Government forces said they have restored control of the coastal region.
The long and winding road to peace: It was just three months ago when al-Sharaa’s forces swept into power, ending Assad’s reign of terror. The interim leader has since tried to promote peace and national unity – even visiting Latakia last month, where he appeared to receive a hero’s welcome. But real progress will depend on al-Shaara’s ability to provide inclusive governance and enforce the rule of law to address the causes of sectarian tensions.President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, photographed at the Presidential palace in Athens, Greece, on December 7, 2023.
Is Turkey on a roll these days?
With so much of the world in geopolitical flux these days, it’s hard to pick clear winners or losers. But one leader who could be pretty happy about how things are going at the moment is Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish president has been in power for more than 20 years. Now he’s angling to stick around even beyond his current term limits, which expire in 2028. Luckily for him, a number of things are suddenly going right at once.
“He has more of a chance to realize his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives than he’s had in well over a decade,” says Emre Peker, Eurasia Group’s top Turkey expert.
Let’s take a look at the hit parade:
First, the Assad regime in Syria is gone. Erdogan had worked towards this for years, hoping that Bashar Assad’s fall and the end of the Syrian civil war would hasten the return of millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey – so far more than 80,000 have returned – while also opening up opportunities for Turkish economic and strategic influence in the country.
Ankara has already laid the groundwork for a military partnership with the new Syrian government of Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose HTS militia overthrew Assad back in December with Turkish help.
Second, the Kurdish problem may be nearing a resolution. The main Kurdish militant group, the PKK, has suggested it is willing to lay down its arms after 40 years of armed struggle against the Turkish state. (See more here.) If so, it would bring to an end a once-intractable conflict that has left tens of thousands dead.
Third, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine could be a boon, opening up reconstruction opportunities in Ukraine for Turkey’s world-class construction firms. Erdogan, who has good ties with Russia but has also positioned Turkey as a potential peacemaker in the war, has taken care to show support recently for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, even as Washington distances itself from Kyiv.
And if the Trump Administration really does reduce its defense commitments to Europe – as the EU now vividly fears – Turkey could benefit both as a supplier of arms to the EU and as a critical interlocutor between the continent and Russia, with whom Erdogan has cultivated friendly relations, to the chagrin of its NATO allies.
Lastly, the economy is perking up. True, inflation is still at 39%, but that’s the lowest level in nearly two years, and the central bank has been cautiously cutting rates to keep up the economic momentum: Turkey’s GDP grew 3.2% last year, beating expectations.
But there are huge caveats to all of this, says Peker.
First, Syria could just as easily blow up as glow up. The country is a sectarian patchwork ravaged by decades of dictatorship and years of civil war. The new government of jihadist-turned-statesman al-Sharaa has yet to prove that it can achieve stability. On Friday, violence exploded between government forces and the Alawite minority that the Assads themselves hailed from.
“If that spirals out of control,” says Peker, “it will encourage other militias to try to secure more autonomy for themselves, which could create instability on Turkey's border – in which case Erdogan’s dreams of economically benefiting from the new Syria would go down the drain.”
Second, the Kurdish solution will require a careful compromise. Erdogan’s Islamist AK party is supported by the far-right MHP party. But even together they don’t have the votes that Erdogan needs to change the constitution or call early elections – the only two ways he can get around the 2028 term limit.
The support of Kurdish parties could get Erdogan over the line, but it’s a narrow path: Erdogan will need to grant the Kurds just enough autonomy and cultural rights to seal the end of the conflict, but without giving them so much that his nationalist partners in the MHP balk.
Third, Trump’s realignment won’t necessarily help Erdogan.
Turkey can in principle benefit from Europe’s new plans to Trump-proof itself by spending more than $800 billion on defense, but European governments may prefer to keep that spending – and the resulting jobs – in the EU rather than give Turkey a piece of the action.
And if Washington really does fold up its European security umbrella and go home, Ankara could be in big trouble. Turkey’s Incirlik airbase is home to dozens of American nuclear weapons and thousands of US troops.
“Turkey is a massive beneficiary of the American security umbrella,” says Peker. “If that were to deteriorate, that would be detrimental to Turkey regardless of how robust its defense industry is becoming.”
In all, it’s more of a mixed bag for Erdogan than it may at first appear. Although a lot of things are coming up aces for Erdogan these days, says Peker, “it’s hardly a given that Turkey really comes out of this strengthened, victorious, and able to throw its weight around however it wants.”
Syrian forces head to Latakia after fighters linked to Syria's ousted leader Bashar Assad mounted a deadly attack on government forces on Thursday, March 6, 2025.
Syria sees worst fighting since Assad’s fall
The militants killed 16 police personnel, and the response from Syrian security forces killed 28 militants and four civilians.
Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria’s new president, led jihadist militias in the overthrow of Assad back in December. He is now leading Syria through a transitional period before elections can be held. But sectarian violence continues, and tensions have been flaring in Alawite regions that have been subjected to attacks by Sunni militants.
Military reinforcements were sent to Jableh late Thursday, and curfews are in place in the region's Alawite-populated areas. Officials say everything is under control and are calling for an end to sectarian violence.
A demonstrator holds a picture of jailed Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Ocalan during a rally in Diyarbakir, Turkey, February 27, 2025.
Is the PKK’s war with Turkey suddenly … over?
For 40 years, the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers Party, known by its Turkish
initials PKK, have waged war against the Turkish state in a conflict that’s left more than 40,000 dead.
On Thursday, the group’s jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan, made a startling demand: The PKK should disarm and dissolve itself.
The background: Kurds, one of the world’s largest stateless ethnic groups, comprise about a fifth of Turkey’s population and are concentrated mainly in the Southeast along the Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian frontiers.
Formed in the 1980s, the Marxist-influenced PKK initially sought Kurdish secession but later moderated to greater autonomy. The PKK has attacked both military and civilian targets and is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the EU, and the US.
Ocalan’s call comes after talks between him, the Turkish government, and Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish political party. It is unclear what concessions, if any, the PKK will get in exchange for dissolving.
Meanwhile, across the border … Kurdish militias tied to the PKK are active in northern Syria, where they fight ISIS with US support and have carved out autonomous areas that Turkey views with extreme suspicion. Turkish troops and proxies have clashed with the Syrian Kurdish groups, which seek autonomy within the new Syria.
We’ll be watching to see what the terms of any PKK-Ankara deal are, and how it may affect the balance of power in northern Syria.