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What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?

Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.

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Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa speaks during a Ministerial formation of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic, in Damascus, Syria, on March 29, 2025.

REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi

Hard Numbers: Syria gets new Cabinet, US steps up Houthi strikes, Top US vaccine official resigns, Hamas offers hostages for ceasefire, Trump eyes third term, Kashmir violence turns deadly, Trump shrugs off high car prices

23: Syria has a new transitional Cabinet. Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa swore in his new 23-member team on Saturday, replacing caretakers who had been in those roles since former President Bashar Assad was ousted in December. While the new Cabinet is largely filled with al-Sharaa allies, it is religiously and ethnically diverse, a sign that Syria is moving forward to rebuild in the post-Assad and post-civil war era.

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Syrian troops sit atop a tank as they head toward the Syrian-Lebanese border following clashes with Lebanese soldiers and armed groups, in Qusayr, Syria, March 17, 2025.

REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

Hezbollah takes on Syria’s new army

Fighting erupted across the border that separates Syria and Lebanon over the weekend. The new government in Syria claims the militant group Hezbollah triggered this violence by crossing into Syrian territory on Saturday, kidnapping three Syrian soldiers, and then executing them inside Lebanon. Hezbollah denies the allegation, and Lebanon’s state media blames the killing on local clans and militias. The two sides agreed to halt the fighting late Monday night.

The Syrian government and Hezbollah have historically acted as allies, but two important changes have occurred. First, Israel has pounded Hezbollah positions inside Lebanon in recent months, badly weakening the group and killing most of its leadership. Second, the current Syrian regime is composed of fighters who defeated the government of Bashar Assad, which had been Hezbollah’s reliable regional partner. Assad now lives in Moscow under Russian President Vladimir Putin’s protection.

Hezbollah has good reason for frustration. In the past, when its fighters needed more weapons and materiel, Iran provided them by sending reinforcements across Syrian territory. The new Syrian government has severed that channel. The Lebanese and Syrian armies say they have increased cross-border communication to restore calm, though Hezbollah representatives remain defiant.

People in Damascus celebrate after the Kurdish-led and U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to integrate into Syria's new state institutions.

REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi

Syrian government inks key deal with the Kurds

In a big step toward trying to unify post-Assad Syria, the government reached an agreement with the SDF, a US-backed Kurdish militia that has controlled large swathes of northeast Syria for nearly a decade.

President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF leader Mazloum Abdi inked the deal on Monday.

What was agreed: The SDF will integrate “civilian and military institutions” into the Syrian state by year’s end. This includes border controls and, importantly, oil fields, that before the war generated a fifth of Syria’s official government revenue.

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Syrian fighters and civilians carry the coffin of a member of the Syrian security forces during his funeral in Hama province after he and 11 other colleagues were killed in an ambush by groups loyal to the ousted President Bashar al-Assad in Latakia.

Moawia Atrash/dpa via Reuters Connect

Sectarian violence erupts in Syria – in former Assad stronghold

It seems that the 14-year-long civil war isn’t quite over in Syria. Since Thursday, violent clashes between deposed dictator Bashar Assad’s Alawite loyalists and supporters of the new Sunni regime in the coastal regions have left over 1,000 dead, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Most were reportedly civilians, and there have been disturbing reports of mass executions, though they are not yet verified.
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President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, photographed at the Presidential palace in Athens, Greece, on December 7, 2023.

Aris Oikonomou / Hans Lucas via Reuters

Is Turkey on a roll these days?

With so much of the world in geopolitical flux these days, it’s hard to pick clear winners or losers. But one leader who could be pretty happy about how things are going at the moment is Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The Turkish president has been in power for more than 20 years. Now he’s angling to stick around even beyond his current term limits, which expire in 2028. Luckily for him, a number of things are suddenly going right at once.

“He has more of a chance to realize his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives than he’s had in well over a decade,” says Emre Peker, Eurasia Group’s top Turkey expert.

Let’s take a look at the hit parade:

First, the Assad regime in Syria is gone. Erdogan had worked towards this for years, hoping that Bashar Assad’s fall and the end of the Syrian civil war would hasten the return of millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey – so far more than 80,000 have returned – while also opening up opportunities for Turkish economic and strategic influence in the country.

Ankara has already laid the groundwork for a military partnership with the new Syrian government of Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose HTS militia overthrew Assad back in December with Turkish help.

Second, the Kurdish problem may be nearing a resolution. The main Kurdish militant group, the PKK, has suggested it is willing to lay down its arms after 40 years of armed struggle against the Turkish state. (See more here.) If so, it would bring to an end a once-intractable conflict that has left tens of thousands dead.

Third, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine could be a boon, opening up reconstruction opportunities in Ukraine for Turkey’s world-class construction firms. Erdogan, who has good ties with Russia but has also positioned Turkey as a potential peacemaker in the war, has taken care to show support recently for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, even as Washington distances itself from Kyiv.

And if the Trump Administration really does reduce its defense commitments to Europe – as the EU now vividly fears – Turkey could benefit both as a supplier of arms to the EU and as a critical interlocutor between the continent and Russia, with whom Erdogan has cultivated friendly relations, to the chagrin of its NATO allies.

Lastly, the economy is perking up. True, inflation is still at 39%, but that’s the lowest level in nearly two years, and the central bank has been cautiously cutting rates to keep up the economic momentum: Turkey’s GDP grew 3.2% last year, beating expectations.

But there are huge caveats to all of this, says Peker.

First, Syria could just as easily blow up as glow up. The country is a sectarian patchwork ravaged by decades of dictatorship and years of civil war. The new government of jihadist-turned-statesman al-Sharaa has yet to prove that it can achieve stability. On Friday, violence exploded between government forces and the Alawite minority that the Assads themselves hailed from.

“If that spirals out of control,” says Peker, “it will encourage other militias to try to secure more autonomy for themselves, which could create instability on Turkey's border – in which case Erdogan’s dreams of economically benefiting from the new Syria would go down the drain.”

Second, the Kurdish solution will require a careful compromise. Erdogan’s Islamist AK party is supported by the far-right MHP party. But even together they don’t have the votes that Erdogan needs to change the constitution or call early elections – the only two ways he can get around the 2028 term limit.

The support of Kurdish parties could get Erdogan over the line, but it’s a narrow path: Erdogan will need to grant the Kurds just enough autonomy and cultural rights to seal the end of the conflict, but without giving them so much that his nationalist partners in the MHP balk.

Third, Trump’s realignment won’t necessarily help Erdogan.

Turkey can in principle benefit from Europe’s new plans to Trump-proof itself by spending more than $800 billion on defense, but European governments may prefer to keep that spending – and the resulting jobs – in the EU rather than give Turkey a piece of the action.

And if Washington really does fold up its European security umbrella and go home, Ankara could be in big trouble. Turkey’s Incirlik airbase is home to dozens of American nuclear weapons and thousands of US troops.

“Turkey is a massive beneficiary of the American security umbrella,” says Peker. “If that were to deteriorate, that would be detrimental to Turkey regardless of how robust its defense industry is becoming.”

In all, it’s more of a mixed bag for Erdogan than it may at first appear. Although a lot of things are coming up aces for Erdogan these days, says Peker, “it’s hardly a given that Turkey really comes out of this strengthened, victorious, and able to throw its weight around however it wants.”

Syrian forces head to Latakia after fighters linked to Syria's ousted leader Bashar Assad mounted a deadly attack on government forces on Thursday, March 6, 2025.

REUTERS/Mahmoud Hassano

Syria sees worst fighting since Assad’s fall

Nearly 50 people were killed on Thursday in the deadliest clashes Syria has seen since the overthrow of Bashar Assad. Pro-Assad militants attacked security checkpoints around the western coastal town of Jableh, a stronghold of the former regime.
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A demonstrator holds a picture of jailed Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Ocalan during a rally in Diyarbakir, Turkey, February 27, 2025.

REUTERS/Sertac Kayar

Is the PKK’s war with Turkey suddenly … over?

For 40 years, the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers Party, known by its Turkish

initials PKK, have waged war against the Turkish state in a conflict that’s left more than 40,000 dead.

On Thursday, the group’s jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan, made a startling demand: The PKK should disarm and dissolve itself.

The background: Kurds, one of the world’s largest stateless ethnic groups, comprise about a fifth of Turkey’s population and are concentrated mainly in the Southeast along the Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian frontiers.

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