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Kurdish fighters from the People's Protection Units (YPG) take part in a military parade as they celebrate victory over the Islamic state, in Qamishli, Syria March 28, 2019.
Will Turkey attack Syria’s Kurds?
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan threatened this week to launch attacks against Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria. During an interview broadcast late Tuesday, he said that if the US-backed paramilitary People’s Protection Units (usually known by their Kurdish initialism YPG) fail to lay down their arms and expel foreign fighters, Turkey “will do what’s necessary,” including “a military operation.”
Wait, aren’t the YPG and Turkey both US allies? Yes, but that hasn’t stopped Turkey from attacking the Kurds in the past, as Fidan pointed out. “This is what our national security requires,” he said.
Ankara has a longstanding internal conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party on its side of the border, which is also considered a terrorist group by the US and Turkey’s European allies.
Attacking the YPG is unlikely to trigger a significant US response, and Turkey would also like to bolster the newly friendly regime in Damascus led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Washington is slowly warming to HTS as well. The Biden administration moved to lift some restrictions on humanitarian aid sent to Syria on Monday, though it stopped short of fully lifting sanctions. We’re watching for HTS to play nice in the short term as it seeks to get out from under the restrictions imposed on the regime of Bashar Assad.
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025.
Lebanon tries, yet again, to elect a president
Lebanon’s fractious parliament will try on Thursday to do something it has failed at a dozen times over the past two years: elect a president.
How it works: In Lebanon, parliament chooses the president. And by power-sharing tradition, the post is held by a Christian – the Prime Minister is Sunni, and the speaker of parliament is Shia.
The leading candidates: Army commander Joseph Aoun, former Finance Minister Jihad Azour, and state security boss Elias al-Baysari.
The backdrop: recent years have been brutal for Lebanon, crippled by economic crisis and ravaged by Israel’s pummeling of Hezbollah, long the most powerful military and political force in the country. The collapse of the meddlesome Assad regime in Syria adds to the sense of both uncertainty and possibility.
“The election provides a good opportunity to gauge Hezbollah’s power,” says Hani Sabra, founder of Alef Advisory, a region-focused consultancy. The group has repeatedly failed to get its own candidates into the post but could still block figures it doesn’t like.
The stakes: Lebanon badly needs foreign support to rebuild. But the US and other key foreign donors have conditioned aid on the election of a president and the formation of a stable government to replace the rickety caretaker committee that is currently in power. In addition, Sabra says, that would boost chances of renewing the 60-day Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which expires on Jan. 26.
After twelve failed attempts, Lebanon really needs a baker’s dozen to be the charm.Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman meets Syria's newly appointed Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, January 2, 2025.
Syria’s new leaders visit Saudi Arabia
The Saudis welcome a government in Syria that is no longer an Iranian ally and a transit route that allows Tehran to rearm Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon. The Saudis would also like to see an end to the smuggling into the kingdom of dangerous narcotics from Syria. For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, these are developments that can help stabilize the region after more than a year of expanding war and decades of a delicate balance between Iran and the Gulf Arab states.
The new leaders in Damascus hope the Saudis and other deep-pocketed Gulf Arab states will see the new Syria as a “big investment opportunity,” in the words of the country’s de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, until recently known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Rebuilding civil war-torn Syria and welcoming back large numbers of Syrian refugees from abroad will be an enormously expensive project, and the Gulf Arabs are by far the likeliest potential donors to see self-interest in major investments.
Assad's fall in Syria creates both opportunities & risks, says US national security advisor Jake Sullivan
When Assad fled Syria, shocking the world, President-Elect Trump made his thoughts clear on the region. In short, he said "stay out, America." But can the world's most powerful nation afford to ignore Syria's uncertain future? This is a good news story, says US national security advisor Jake Sullivan, that could turn bad very quickly.
"The minute Damascus fell, ISIS began to look for any opportunity it could take to reconstitute, grow, spread, and ultimately recreate a platform from which to threaten the United States and Americans around the world."
Speaking on stage with Ian Bremmer at a live 92nd Street Y taping of GZERO World in New York City, Sullivan discussed what comes next for the war-ravaged nation. "Assad was a butcher, a brutally murderous dictator of his own people. Him being gone is not a bad thing—it presents an opportunity for the Syrian people to actually build a better and more inclusive future." And while that's a reason for hope, the dangers are real that bad actors could rush to fill the vacuum.
"Syria has a real and extent risk of becoming a primary hotbed of radical Islamic terrorism, but it also has a chance for stability. We must push toward opportunity while minimizing the risks."
Watch the full interview with Jake Sullivan on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television beginning Friday, December 20. Check local listings.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Jake Sullivan on the biggest threats to US national security in 2025
From Russia to China to the Middle East, what are the biggest threats facing the US? On GZERO World, outgoing National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan joins Ian Bremmer in front of a live audience at the 92nd Street Y in New York City for a wide-ranging conversation on America’s view of the world, President Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy, and how much will (or won’t) change when the Trump administration takes office in 2025. Despite major differences between the two administrations, Sullivan says he’s seen “more alignment” with his successor Mike Waltz than he expected and that they agree on “big ticket items” like making sure US adversaries don’t take advantage of the US during the presidential transition. Reflecting on his time and office and how the global threat environment has changed, Sullivan digs into risks and opportunities in Syria, the US-Israel relationship, China’s global ambitions, and Putin’s miscalculations in Ukraine.
“The Cold War era is over. There's a competition underway for what comes next. It is challenging. It is at times turbulent,” Sullivan warns, “What the United States has to do is try to strengthen its fundamental hands so it can deal with whatever comes next and there will be surprises.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- How Trump 2.0 could reshape US foreign policy, with the New York Times' David Sanger ›
- US and China set up back-channel meetings as pressure over Yemen grows ›
- Sullivan trip sets up Biden-Xi call ›
- Putin isn't winning in Ukraine, says US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan ›
- EXCLUSIVE: An Interview with outgoing US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan ›
Foreign policy in a fractured world: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on global threats and Joe Biden's legacy
Listen: Outgoing US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan joins Ian Bremmer in front of a live audience at the 92nd Street Y in New York City for a rare and wide-ranging GZERO World interview about the biggest geopolitical threats facing the United States, Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy, and how much will (or won’t) change when the Trump administration takes office in 2025. The world has changed dramatically since Biden entered the White House in 2021, and Sullivan has been the driving force behind some of the administration’s most consequential–and controversial–decisions over the past four years. The outgoing National Security Advisor reflects on his time in office, from managing strategic competition with China to supporting Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion to navigating the US-Israel relationship. He warns that bad actors see presidential transitions as moments of opportunity, so it’s imperative that we send a “clear and common message” to both friends and adversaries during what he calls “a huge, plastic moment of turbulence and transition” in global politics.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday Israeli troops will continue to occupy Mount Hermon in Syria for the foreseeable future.
A mountain of tension: Israel plans to occupy Mount Hermon
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday Israeli troops will continue to occupy Mount Hermon in Syria for the foreseeable future. After Bashar Assad’s regime collapsed at the hands of Syrian rebels two weeks ago, Israel took the opportunity to decimate their neighbor’s military infrastructure and take control of the strategically important peak.
Although the mountain overlooks the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, with — believe it or not — an Israeli-operated ski resort further down its slopes, its summit was a demilitarized buffer zone separating Israel and Syria until two weeks ago.
Why does Israel want Mount Hermon? The Israeli government originally justified the encroachment to secure their own borders, but they may be tempted to stay on Syria’s highest peak because of its vantage point over Syria and Lebanon. Placing a radar on the high point would greatly strengthen Tel Aviv’s surveillance capabilities and early-warning capacities.
Netanyahu’s announcement follows his approval of a plan to expand Golan Heights settlements, a move that could double the area’s population and, Tel Aviv hopes, improve its defensive posture. Approximately 20,000 Druze, a small ethno-religious group, live on the Israeli-occupied portion of the heights. They have a history of strong support for Israel, and have advocated for the outright annexation of the area into Israel. We have our eye on how Syrian Druze react to the new government forming in Damascus.
However, the rest of Syria and the Middle East are not keen on Tel Aviv keeping command of the mountain. We will be watching to see whether Israel’s adversaries in the region take action — but at present the occupation seems a fait accompli
.
Dispatches from Damascus: A reporter's view of the new Syria
Syria has just endured decades worth of change in two weeks, and Fin DePencier was there for it first hand.
When the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels toppled Bashar Assad’s brutal dictatorship on Dec. 8, DePencier sped from Lebanon to Damascus, passing abandoned military vehicles and vacant border checkpoints. He found people dancing, crying, and shooting off guns in celebration. When GZERO spoke to him over a week later, there was an incessant popping of gunfire in the background. The rebels hadn’t stopped partying. DePencier said they had been shooting off celebratory rounds “around the clock” ever since their victory.
But that party could be coming to an end. On Tuesday, the leader of the rebel coalition, Ahmed al-Shara, aka Abu Mohammed al-Golani, announced that all rebel groups would be disbanded and reorganized under the defense ministry, a clear sign that the group – which most Western countries consider a terrorist organization – is trying to rebrand as a legitimate government.
Legitimization will be key to stabilizing Syria, and lifting sanctions that have crippled its economy. Syria is currently the third most sanctioned country in the world, but the EU laid out conditions for lifting sanctions on Tuesday which include al-Golani fostering peace, protecting minority groups, and reorienting the country away from Russia and Iran – which backed Assad but remain prominent forces in the country with much to lose.
With Assad gone, 30 years worth of questions have flooded in. Can the rebels restore order, or will they be side-tracked seeking vengeance against those who helped carry out Assad’s atrocities? Will they continue Assad’s ostensibly secular society or seek a harder Islamist line? How are the foreign powers invested in the country – like Russia, Iran, Turkey, the US, the EU, and Israel – responding? Here’s DePencier’s take from the ground.
Riley Callanan, GZERO: What kind of government do you see HTS establishing?
Fin DePencier: Preliminarily, the fact that they haven't been executing a lot of former regime officials and that they're mostly executing a peaceful transition of power, tells me that they view governing Syria as their most important goal. I think retribution is a lot less important.
Most Western countries view HTS as a terrorist organization. In 2016, they broke off from Al-Qaeda, but they definitely retained a lot of Islamist elements. Al-Golani did say that there's going to be a morality police established.
But how far are they going to take it? Under Assad, Syria was a secular country. You can find alcohol here and you can see lots of women on the streets who are unveiled. It is very much up in the air, and not everyone feels the same way, but I do think the broader Syrian society wants a secular democratic state.
Callanan:Do you see foreign powers like Russia, Turkey, the US or other countries invested in the region on the ground?
DePencier: We actually saw al-Golani driving around with a senior Turkish official in Damascus on Thursday. Turkey was one of the most important backers of the rebels.
Ukrainian officials also held meetings with the rebels. It’s a great investment for them because the Russians now have to abandon one of the Tartus naval bases, one of their most important imperial projects. You can see Russian military columns on the streets just evacuating very orderly.
As for the United States, it's going to be interesting to see how Trump deals with the 900 troops that are still stationed in the Kurdish territories. He made a Truth Social post saying that we should have nothing to do with Syria. But last time he was president, he also talked about bombing ISIS, which he did. That's one of the stated reasons for why the American troops are still in Syria is to defeat remnants of the Islamic State. Maybe Trump will allow those forces to remain under that pretense.
Meanwhile, the Israelis bombed the country the first night we were here. They don't want all this military equipment to get into the rebel's hands, but they're also leaving the door open for a good relationship with them, and the rebels have said they don’t want a war with Israel after 13 years of conflict.
Lebanon already has more than a million Syrian refugees living within borders. And yesterday when I went back to Beirut, I saw the next wave of the Syrian refugee crisis beginning. There were Alawites and Shiites and other regime supporters trying to escape the new regime because we've already seen persecution of those religious minorities by the rebels and they don't want to take any chances.
Callanan: There is a very real fear that minority groups will be made to pay for the brutality of Assad’s security forces and his actions during the civil war.
After the civil war broke out, the Assad regime arrested 100,000 people, and tortured at least 15,000 people to death, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. A lot of those people were taken to Sednaya prison, could you tell me about what you saw on your visit there?
DePencier: It was just absolutely shocking and you hopefully only have to see a concentration time liberated once in your life, but that’s what Sednaya is for the regime. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that 30,000 people were killed throughout the entire duration of the war.
It's hard to overstate how infamous this place was. I was speaking with some friends in Lebanon who said they'd been hearing stories about Sednaya for their entire life. People would get kidnapped inside Lebanon and end up in Sednaya and then they'd never see them again. I know that Jordanian prisoners have been found in Sednaya. It was this execution point for enemies of the regime.
We went in there, we saw the catacombs, we saw this torture room where there was a human sized hydraulic press.
This is all horrible, but it's also nothing that the world didn't already know. But over the last few days we’ve seen the families of people who were sent to the prison trying to find them. And almost no one has been found alive.
Families dug into the ground and the walls looking for secret underground caverns, because of rumors that there were still people being held in these secret places in the prison. The Syrian White Helmets used construction equipment to search for 48 hours and didn’t find anything. But people just keep coming back to prison, desperately running around this abandoned concentration camp trying to find any trace of their loved ones.
Callanan:Could you encapsulate how it feels to be on the ground right now in an object you've come across?
DePencier: I think it would be the new Syrian flag that is already being erected on so many flag poles and painted on so many walls across the country. As soon as the rebels took over, they painted the flag everywhere.
Today in Umayyad Square, central Damascus, I saw one estimate that over a million people were celebrating the fall of the regime. Everyone was waving this new flag, even though no one really knows what it represents yet because the rebels could take this country in so many different directions. But people are just so jubilant right now. Assad’s regime had been around for more than 50 years, one of the world's most repressive. Even if the rebels do end up engaging in similar repression, they're at least giving everyone some time to breathe.