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Palestinians walk in the rain at a makeshift camp in Gaza City, on Nov. 25, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump admin makes temp Gaza property plan, Taiwan to boost defenses, Tragic fire in Hong Kong, Brazil’s Lula leads in poll, Saudi opens door to liquor cabinet
20,000-25,000: As part of his vision for Gaza, US President Donald Trump is drawing on his background as a real estate guy, with plans to build a number of temporary residential compounds for Palestinians in eastern Gaza, each of which would house as many as 20,000-25,000 people. The aim is to entice Gazans sheltering elsewhere in the strip to move back to the area, which they were driven out of by the Israeli military. Officials say the first compound won’t be ready for months.
$40 billion: Taiwan will boost defense spending by $40 billion in order to face down the persistent threat from China, which considers the self-governing island part of its own territory. The US, which backs Taiwan, has called on Taiwan to fund more of its own military. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed Taiwan this week. Meanwhile, for more on the rising tension between China and Japan over Taiwan, see our recent report here.
13: At least 13 people have died after a fire tore through a group of apartment buildings in Hong Kong on Wednesday. Hundreds of firefighters are at the scene seeking to quench the blaze. The cause remains unclear, but the buildings were enveloped in bamboo scaffolding, which the government had started to phase out in March over safety concerns.
46%: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win in any plausible matchup in the 2027 presidential election, according to a new poll. In a face-to-face with São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, Lula would win 46%, while the man widely considered the right-wing heir to former President Jair Bolsonaro would win 39%. The jailed Bolsonaro remains the kingmaker of the Brazilian right.
2: Cheers to this, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will open two more liquor stores for foreigners, one each in Jeddah and Dhahran. Last year they opened one in the capital, Riyadh as part of a wider modernization drive that is meant to bring more foreign tourists and workers into the country. Name us a cocktail! The Jeddah Julip? The Dhahran Daiquiri? Let us know your proposal, we’ll publish the best ones next week.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (R) answers a question from Katsuya Okada of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan during a House of Representatives Budget Committee session in Tokyo on Nov. 7, 2025. At the time, Takaichi said a military attack on Taiwan could present a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
Japan-China spat over Taiwan escalates
Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing hit a boiling point last Friday when China accused Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of “a grave violation of international law.” Her alleged crime? Statements that a Chinese attack or blockade of Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival and be met with military intervention. The ensuing diplomatic crisis has not just upended relations between China and Japan, but threatens to ensnare the United States in a geopolitical showdown in the Pacific.
Why were Taikachi’s comments so incendiary? Takaichi used the phrase, “situation threatening Japan’s survival,” to describe potential Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. That’s a specific legal designation under Japan's 2015 security legislation that allows the prime minister to deploy the military in self-defense.
This breaks with Tokyo’s traditional ambiguity on the use of force in the case of invasion, and signals publicly that it would stand with Washington in a crisis – something China considers a direct challenge to its sovereignty. Article V of the US-Japan security treaty obliges the US to defend Japan if it is attacked.
What has China done in response? Beijing has suspended seafood imports, discouraged Chinese tourists from traveling to Japan, and allowed mass cancellations of flights and tours without penalty. Concerts by Japanese artists in China have been abruptly pulled from venues and cruise ships that once filled ports in Kyushu are now being rerouted to South Korea. The goal is to hit Japan where it hurts: tourism has helped boost the economy post-Covid, and many small cities rely heavily on Chinese visitors.
On the diplomatic front, Beijing sent a letter Friday to UN Secretary-General António Guterres urging Japan to “deeply reflect upon its historical crimes,” a reference to Japan’s invasion of China during World War II, and calling on Tokyo to “retract its erroneous remarks.” On Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi posted a statement to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s website that Japan’s leadership has “said things they shouldn’t have said, and crossed a red line that should not have been touched.”
How is Japan reacting? Tokyo is not taking back Takaishi’s words, saying instead that Beijing is misinterpreting them. According to senior Japanese government spokeswoman Maki Kobayashi, “The claim our country has altered its position is entirely baseless” and Tokyo remains “committed to dialogue” with Beijing.
What’s China’s goal? Beijing hopes to frustrate Takaichi’s pledge to accelerate Japan’s military buildup and raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by fiscal year 2025, two years ahead of the target set by her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba. According to Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, China is seeking “to box Takaichi in and put her on the back foot early on – so she will be more reluctant to push forward on Japan’s investment in defense.”
But so far, the public is backing the prime minister. According to David Boling, Eurasia Group’s director of Japan and Asia Trade, “Takaichi’s approval ratings are very high – even climbing higher in some polls. The Japanese public has a very negative view of China, and China’s extreme response will only reinforce that view.”
Could Japan’s position deter an invasion of Taiwan – or accelerate it? If China believes that a Taiwan crisis would trigger a US-led coalition response, Beijing could escalate its preparations to get ahead of Japan’s planned military buildup. Beijing is already conducting invasion drills using its “shadow navy,” and Chinese coast guard ships have increased their presence around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, putting the Japanese air force and navy on high alert. That could increase the odds of a takeover – or an unintended encounter that could spiral into an international crisis.
A photo taken on September 14, 2024, shows seafood at Jimiya fishing port in Qingdao, China, on September 14, 2024. On September 20, 2024, China and Japan reach a consensus on the issue of the discharge of contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and China states that it will gradually resume the import of Japanese aquatic products that meet the regulations.
Hard Numbers: China-Japan tensions extend to seafood, Italy expands definition of rape, Klimt painting becomes second-most expensive ever sold, & More
227: All 227 lawmakers who were present in Italy’s lower house yesterday voted to expand the definition of rape to include all non-consensual acts. Under the current penal code, rape is an act that involves violence, threats, or abuse of authority. Reports of sexual violence in Italy have risen in recent years: there were 6,231 in 2023, up from 4,257 in 2014.
2: After a gunman attacked a church in Nigeria, killing two people, rapper Nicki Minaj appeared before the UN to call for action against the persecution of christians in the country – something that US President Donald Trump has said he would also make moves to address.
$236.4 million: A portrait by the Austrian artist Gustav Klimt, famed for painting “Women in Gold,” sold in New York City on Tuesday for $236.4 million, becoming the second-most expensive painting of all time. Six people competed for “Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer,” which Klimt created between 1914 and 1916. Like “Women in Gold,” the Nazis had looted the painting from Jewish owners during World War II.
21 million: The concept of kissing dates back more than 21 million years, University of Oxford scientists have found, with humans and many of their ancestors engaging with the practice. The study didn’t explore why the practice began.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi holds talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Gyeongju, South Korea, on Oct. 31, 2025.
Hard Numbers: China-Japan spat could hurt tourism, Pro-Russian pair accused of attacking Polish railway, Neo-Nazi pleads guilty to poison plot in NYC, South Africa blocks arrivals of Palestinians
650,000: Roughly 650,000 Chinese tourists visited Japan in September, but those levels are under threat amid a diplomatic rift between the two countries. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that her country would intervene if China attacks Taiwan, prompting Beijing to cancel tour groups to Japan and ban employees of state-owned enterprises from traveling there.
2: Two Ukrainian men, who are believed to have been working with Russia, have been identified as the culprits behind the rail sabotage attacks in Poland over the weekend. The men are believed to have been recruited by Russian intelligence.
18: A Georgian man who hatched a plan to feed poisoned candy to Jewish children in New York City pleaded guilty on Monday to soliciting hate crimes. Prosecutors will seek an 18-year jail sentence. The man led a Russian & Ukrainian neo-Nazi group that has sought to sow violence worldwide.
2,000: The South African government announced that it will block the arrival of any further flights of Palestinians after hundreds arrived by air in recent weeks. Passengers said they paid $2,000 per ticket to an aid agency offering them a route out of the country, but South African Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola denounced the flights as part of “a broader agenda to remove Palestinians from Palestine.”
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and his wife, Kim Hye Kyung, are pictured at Tokyo's Haneda airport on Aug. 24, 2025, before flying to Washington, D.C., USA.
What We’re Watching: South Korea’s Lee to meet Trump, Israel offers withdrawal for Hezbollah disarmament, Maryland man now headed to Uganda
Lee-Trump meeting to center on China
South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung visits Washington, D.C., with plenty on his agenda as he meets US President Donald Trump. Top of the list will be China. Unlike his predecessors, Lee wants to boost ties with Beijing – he even said Seoul should stay out of any China-Taiwan conflict. Meanwhile Trump wants South Korea to bolster its forces so that the American troops stationed there can focus on containing China rather than helping defend the locals from North Korea – this, unsurprisingly, worries Seoul. Trump’s post this morning about there being a “Purge or Revolution” in South Korea won’t help, either. Lee’s charm offensive has already begun, with the use of Trump’s (likely) favorite attire: a red hat.
Israel offers the carrot and the stick in bid for Hezbollah disarmament
Israel said it would cut back its forces in southern Lebanon if Beirut took steps to force the militant group Hezbollah to disarm. The announcement comes after the Lebanese cabinet approved plans earlier this month aimed at disarming the weakened, Iran-backed militant group. The flipside of Israel’s pledge appears to be some sort of continued military presence in southern Lebanon: IDF troops and Hezbollah were both supposed to exit the area two months after signing a ceasefire deal in November, but the Israelis stayed after the militant fighters remained active in the area. Whatever the approach, disarming Hezbollah will be easier said than done.
Kilmar Ábrego García to be deported to Uganda
The United States is set to deport Kilmar Ábrego García – a Salvadoran man who resides in Maryland – to Uganda. It comes after Uganda joined the growing ranks of African countries, including South Sudan and Eswatini, that have agreed to receive US deportees from other countries. The small nation of Eswatini faces a court challenge after accepting five deported men, sparking outrage over human rights violations and overcrowded prisons. As such arrangements expand, Africa risks becoming a receiving zone for migrants — and the unresolved legal issues that come along with such transfers.FFM Mogami at the Yokosuka Naval Base on April 8, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Japan wins huge Oz carrier contract, Migrant boat sinks off Yemen, US to require bonds from visa-seekers, Taiwan arrests chip snoops
$6.5 billion: Japan won a $6.5 billion defense contract to build 11 new warships for Australia’s navy on Tuesday. The deal comes as Australia undertakes a major defense overhaul in order to counter China’s expanding presence in the Indo-Pacific.
68: At least 68 African migrants have died after a boat capsized off the coast of Yemen on Sunday. Yemen is a major transit route for migrants from the Horn of Africa – which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea – who go to the Gulf monarchies in search of work. The overall death toll is feared to be greater than 140.
15,000: The US is planning to require some visa applicants to pay bonds of up to $15,000, as President Donald Trump continues his crackdown on immigration. The State Department said the measure will target countries whose citizens overstay their visas most often: looking at you, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, Haiti, Venezuela, and Spain.
6: Taiwanese authorities have arrested six people suspected of stealing trade secrets from TSMC, the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturer. While their nationalities haven’t been made public yet, China’s Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and the US’s Intel trail far behind TSMC, which supplies chips to Nvidia and Apple.A demonstrator burns mock dollar bills with the face of US President Donald Trump during a protest against the US tariffs imposed on Brazilian products, in front of the United States Embassy in Brasilia, Brazil, on August 1, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Another US tariff announcement, El Salvador leader can now rule indefinitely, Indonesian president pardons opponents
US hits the world with fresh wave of tariffs
US President Donald Trump slapped new tariffs on 92 countries, including key allies. Canada, the US’s number two trade partner, was hit with a 35% rate. Taiwan, a critical semiconductor supplier, also faces fresh levies that could ripple through global tech supply chains, and India now faces a 25% rate. For some countries, Trump’s latest threats are actually a reprieve, as he lowered previously threatened rates: tiny Lesotho, which Trump once said “nobody has ever heard of,” will now face a 15% duty, down from 50%. The new levies take effect on Aug. 9, but Mexico, the US’s largest trade partner, won a 90-day extension. Trump reached a deal with the EU earlier this week, and is still negotiating with China.
El Salvador’s Bukele can now stay in power forever
El Salvador’s legislature has voted to scrap presidential term limits, clearing the way for President Nayib Bukele to run for a third term, and potentially to stay in power indefinitely. Bukele – who once called himself the “world’s coolest dictator” – remains wildly popular after jailing thousands in a gang crackdown, but critics warn he’s dismantling a fragile democracy. Analysts say that the move may have spurred backlash from the US under previous administrations, but that Bukele is emboldened because of his close relationship with Trump.
Indonesia’s president pardons pair of political opponents
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto granted clemency on Thursday to two opposition figures who were recently convicted of corruption. He framed the move as a bid to increase national unity ahead of the country’s 80th anniversary later this month, but critics say it undermines the justice system. Some observers have also suggested it may signal a rift between Prabowo and his predecessor, two-term president Joko Widodo, a one-time rival who backed Prabowo in last year’s election and remains hugely influential.Taiwan President Lai Ching-te attends the coast guard annual drill in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, June 8, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Taiwan’s president latest setback, Angolan fuel protests turn violent, Trump launches Sudan peace effort
Trump blocks Taiwan’s president from traveling through New York
US President Donald Trump blocked Taiwan’s president from stopping over in New York on a trip to Central America. The move, which comes right as US and Chinese officials are discussing a trade deal again, is seen as a concession to Beijing, which famously does not recognize Taiwan’s independence and objects to Taiwanese officials visiting the US, who have traditionally used US transits to bolster unofficial ties. Does this mean Washington’s decades-long military and diplomatic support for Taiwan could be in play as Trump negotiates with China?
Angolan fuel protests turn violent
A three-day long strike by taxi drivers angry about a 33% diesel price hike has turned into a violent demonstration involving thousands in the capital Luanda. Four people have been killed and hundreds arrested amid rioting, looting, and the destruction of cars. The effect of the fuel price hike extends well beyond the gas tank, as it has pushed up prices for food and other essentials as well, exacerbating existing food insecurities in the sub-Saharan African nation.
Trump launches new Sudan peace process – with a twist
The Trump administration is launching a new effort to end Sudan’s civil war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and displaced 13 million over the last two-plus years. Rather than meeting with those two groups directly, Trump is flipping the script and starting with their respective regional backers, the UAE (which supports RSF) and Egypt and Saudi Arabia (which back SAF). Can Trump’s Gulf connections and transactional style work where others have failed? Read Ian Bremmer’s take on that here.