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Workers' Party (WP) supporters wave party flags as they cheer their candidates at the nomination center ahead of the general election in Singapore, on April 23, 2025.

Photo by Suhaimi Abdullah/NurPhoto via Reuters

Singapore’s opposition hopes to make major gains as election campaign begins

Singapore kicked off a lightning-fast, nine-day campaign on Wednesday for its May 3 election. The vote promises to be the most contested since independence, as the ruling People’s Action Party sweats a strong challenge amid weak economic forecasts.

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Jess Frampton

Trump’s 4D checkers, China’s opportunity, climate hopes, and more: Your questions, answered

Welcome to another edition of my mailbag, where I attempt to make sense of our increasingly chaotic world, one reader question at a time. If you have a burning question for me before I go back to full-length columns, ask it here and I’ll answer as many as I can in next week’s newsletter.

Let’s dive in (with questions lightly edited for clarity).

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- YouTube

Global economic outlook: Is a recession already here?

“We’re heading toward a substantial U.S. recession,” said Robert Kahn, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director, Global Macro. “We may even be in one now.”

That notion challenges the official economic outlook released this week by the International Monetary Fund, which was more cautious in its assessment. However, it more closely mirrors what experts are saying in the halls at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings currently underway in Washington, D.C.

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Containers on a cargo ship are seen at an industrial port in Tokyo, Japan April 3, 2025.

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

Beijing tries to woo an uninterested Tokyo over joint tariff fight

Chinese Premiere Li Qiang sent Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba a letter asking that they “fight protectionism together,” according to local reports Tuesday, as both countries face potentially disastrous US tariffs.

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Paige Fusco & Ari Winkleman / GZERO Media

The Graphic Truth: The foreigners who hold US debt

The US is the world’s biggest debtor, with more than $35 trillion of securities outstanding.

About a quarter of that is held by foreign investors, a detail which has drawn considerable attention since Donald Trump began walloping the world with tariffs to rebalance US trade ties and military alliances. That’s because if countries upset – or merely uneasy – about Trump’s policies sell those securities in response, the debt servicing costs for the US rise. This is no small matter on $35 trillion worth of paper.

In fact, one widely held explanation for Trump’s abrupt suspension of the “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 9 was that wary bond investors had begun to sell US Treasuries: In the week of April 11, yields on 10-year US treasuries saw their biggest leap in a quarter of a century, a sign that creditors were dropping US sovereign debt fast.

Could countries weaponize US debt more directly? China, Trump’s biggest trade war target, is the second largest foreign US creditor, officially holding more than $750 billion.

A selloff could be devastating. But analysts say it would be hard to find enough buyers for a sale that is both swift and large enough to catch the US off guard.

And even if it were possible, a seller would risk their own financial security as well global economic health by kneecapping the US. In other words: It would be, in financial terms, the nuclear option.

The graphic above looks at which countries hold the most US sovereign debt. Note that the last official data precede “Liberation Day” and that they depend on official reporting. Some countries may hold more than what is listed here via third parties.

Burkina Faso’s junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traore attends the first ordinary summit of heads of state and governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey, Niger, on July 6, 2024.

REUTERS/Mahamadou Hamidou

Hard Numbers: Burkina Faso foils coup effort, Trump dents democracy rating, Spain to hit defense-spending target, Musk to reduce his DOGE hours, Migrants arrested while fleeing US, Japan rids foreign debt, Tourists killed in Kashmir

40%: Burkina Faso’s ruling military recently foiled an attempted coup aimed at removing junta leader Cap. Ibrahim Traoré, the country’s security minister said on Monday. The Sahel nation has had to deal with widespread insurgency in recent years, with rebel jihadist groups reportedly controlling around 40% of the country’s land mass.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet (not pictured) at the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, April 17, 2025.

Agence Kampuchea Press/Handout via REUTERS

China warns world against harmful US trade deals

China warned Monday that it would “take countermeasures” against countries that try to curry favor with the US by hurting Beijing. More than 70 countries have reached out to Washington in hopes of brokering deals to avoid eye-watering tariffs, and US President Donald Trump said last week that Latin American countries should “maybe” choose between trade with China and America.
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Two DHL delivery vans deliver parcels in Maximilianstrasse in Munich, Germany, on Feb. 20, 2025.

Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Reuters

Companies respond to Trump’s trade crackdown

The ripple effects of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to impact global supply chains. On Saturday, transport company DHL announced it would suspend international shipments over $800 to American consumers, citing that new tariff rules had overwhelmed its processing systems. Automaker Ford said it was “adjusting” its exports of vehicles like the F-150 Raptor, Lincoln Navigator, and Mustang to China, due to the impact of tariffs. And China’s Xiamen Airline reportedly returned a Boeing 737 MAX, freshly painted in company colors – the latest casualty of that country’s ongoing trade war with the US.

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