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Demonstrators hold a rally to protest against a bill on "foreign agents" in Tbilisi, Georgia, May 13, 2024.
Georgia’s government is ramming through “Russian law”
Police in Tbilisiviolently arrested at least 20 people on Monday at peaceful protests outside parliament, where the inflammatory “foreign agents” law was being rushed through committee. Having passed its third reading, the bill will go to a final vote Tuesday. It now seems all but inevitable to become law, opening questions about how far the ruling Georgian Dream party will go to cement its control.
Discipline has been the watchword of the protesters, even as they face growing repression from authorities. On Saturday, at least50,000 people (some local sources say200,000) marched through the capital despite the pouring rain, waving Georgian, EU, and some Ukrainian flags while chanting pro-democracy slogans. Using force, police dispersed some who attempted to camp overnight on Sunday, with multiple videos shared on social media depicting vicious beatings.
Georgia-born Eurasia Group analyst Tinatin Japaridze says that once the bill fully becomes law, the focus will shift to general elections scheduled for October. The young people who believe this law willthrottle civil society and rob them of a European-aligned future seem likely to stay on the streets even after the bill passes. “The fight will shift to be about survival: the survival of Georgia’s democracy for the protesters, and the survival of the Georgian Dream party for the government,” she says.
Similar debates over aligning more with the East vs. West have been at the crux of politics for many former Eastern Bloc countries. In some places, like Ukraine in 2014, and Georgia itself in 2003, popular protests have led to more democratic, EU-leaning administrations. In others, like Belarus in 2006 and 2020, the government crushed unrest with force and entrenched a regime servile to Moscow.
We’re watching for how well the protesters preserve their momentum over the next few months, and how the splintered opposition parties handle potential coalition talks. If they can hold together through the autumn, Japaridze says, Georgian Dream might learn its lesson at the ballot box.
Tbilisi clashes: Georgia government pushes "Russian" bill risking EU candidacy
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Arizona, US.
With the huge protests that we see in the streets of Tbilisi, is that a sign of the Georgian government moving closer to Russia?
Well, it is certainly a sign of the Georgian government being more authoritarian and distinctly more anti-Western. And that is, of course, endangering the ambitions of Georgia to move closer to the European Union, eventually membership. We'll see what happens. But Georgia was given this status of candidate country to the European Union. I think what we see now is going to have the consequences that there's not going to be any movement forward on that until we see Georgia moving into more Western, Democratic, and liberal direction.
Which are the implications of the resignation of the first minister of Scotland?
I think what we see there, in that particular crisis in Edinburgh, is part of the decline of the Scottish Nationalist Party. It was the dominant force in Scottish politics for quite some time. It, of course, drove the issue of Scottish independence that was defeated, rather narrowly, though, in a referendum some years ago. But independence isn't the only issue, and they've been stumbling on the one issue and all the others since then. I think what will happen is the return of the Labour Party as the dominant political force in Scotland. And for the time being, the question of independence on a distinct back-burner.
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Protesters barricade the entrance of Parliament during a rally to protest against a bill on "foreign agents", in Tbilisi, Georgia, May 2, 2024.
Georgians take to the streets against ‘foreign agent’ law
Protests against a controversial “foreign agent” bill in Georgia this week have led to violent police crackdowns in the capital, Tbilisi. The bill will require organizations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as foreign agents.
The ruling Georgian Dream party says the measure — which was advanced in parliament on Wednesday — will improve transparency. But opponents say it is identical to a law the Kremlin has used to crush dissent.
The EU warns that the bill harms Georgia’s aspirations of joining the bloc – rhetoric that is expected to ramp up in the coming weeks, according to Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born regional expert at Eurasia Group.
Still, Georgian Dream is expected to get the bill passed, Japaridze says, after shelving it in the face of similar protests last year. The legislation, which must go through another reading, could become law by the end of May.
In the meantime, protests are expected to continue. What began as a demonstration against the bill is morphing into a much broader, youth-led movement against the ruling party and its Kremlin-inspired politics — and in favor of strengthening ties with the West.
“This is a generation that did not grow up under repressive Soviet rule,” says Japaridze. “They’re a lot bolder.”
If the protests spread nationwide, it could “exacerbate the growing rift between Georgian Dream and the public,” Japaridze says, and make “their work and their role very difficult.” Growing public discontent could also signal that Georgian Dream will face serious challenges in crucial parliamentary elections set for October.