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Supporters of Georgia’s pro-Western and pro-EU opposition groups hold a joint final campaign rally ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Oct. 20, 2024.
Viewpoint: Stakes couldn’t be higher ahead of Georgian election
The Eurasian country and former Soviet republic of Georgia – not the southern US state – is at risk of tilting back into Moscow’s sphere of influence. All eyes will be on the Oct. 26 election to see if the ruling Georgian Dream party – which has slowly shifted the country’s alignment away from Brussels and toward Moscow in recent years – retains control after these crucial parliamentary elections.
We spoke with Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born regional analyst at Eurasia Group, about what’s at stake.
What is the pre-election atmosphere like in Tbilisi?
The atmosphere is simultaneously charged with anticipation and significant uncertainty about the election outcome. Political and social polarization has reached profound depths. The ruling Georgian Dream and the four main opposition coalitions appear disconnected from the majority of the public, who are increasingly feeling political fatigue toward the electoral process, even though many understand that the stakes are incredibly high.
What are the main issues for voters? Is Russia’s invasion of nearby Ukraine having an impact?
Since last spring, tens of thousands in Tbilisi have rallied in support of Georgia’s European future and against Russia’s ongoing aggression. Georgia, a former Soviet bloc country, is facing a critical choice – it can either move forward toward Europe or find itself reverting back toward Russia. It cannot pursue both paths at once. However, in rural areas, the decision is less clear-cut. While most recognize that the “European idea” is essential for Georgia’s growth and progress, this understanding often fails to address the immediate “bread and butter” needs of those living outside the few major cities.
The Georgian Dream, the ruling party, has been in power since 2012. Are they expected to win this election? What accounts for its enduring success?
A landslide win for the Georgian Dream is out of the question, and gaining a constitutional majority in the parliament seems very unlikely. That said, the ruling party is widely expected to garner more votes than any single political party – but probably not enough to avoid the need to form a coalition government with the opposition, which is a reality that neither side is prepared to accept. The “us vs. them” mentality will likely dominate amid deep-rooted interpersonal and intra-party tensions, significantly diminishing the prospects for collaboration between the two sides. Over the past year, as the ruling party started to gear up for what was clearly going to be the most competitive election it has faced since the Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, Russia has increased its support through official rhetoric and positive assessment of the ruling regime’s role in stabilizing relations with Moscow. There have also been thinly veiled, pro-Kremlin disinformation campaigns that have permeated the state-controlled media outlets.
Do you expect any unrest/violence around the election? A smooth government-formation process?
The days following the election will be pivotal in revealing the broader landscape, particularly because both sides will likely dispute unfavorable results. This is expected to lead to chaos, instability, and mass protests. Earlier this spring, up to 200,000 Georgians took to the streets in response to the Georgian Dream’s reintroduction of the controversial foreign agent law. If the election results, which may or may not become available on the night of Oct. 26, are unfavorable for the ruling party, the government and its security services are expected to attempt another violent crackdown. In the event of the Georgian Dream’s defeat by the opposition, a peaceful transfer of power is highly unlikely.
What will the election mean for the country’s relations with the West and with Russia?
The extent to which the West recognizes the election as free and fair will play a significant role here. If the international community rejects the results and the ruling party blatantly steals the vote, Tbilisi could experience increased isolation from the West. This would leave it more vulnerable to direct interference from Russia and increased involvement from China. By the same token, for the West, losing Georgia means losing its foothold in the South Caucasus, a situation neither the US nor Europe is prepared to accept. Western partners will use both incentives and deterrents to prevent Georgia from falling entirely under Kremlin influence.
Demonstrators hold a rally to protest against a bill on "foreign agents" in Tbilisi, Georgia, May 13, 2024.
Georgia’s government is ramming through “Russian law”
Police in Tbilisiviolently arrested at least 20 people on Monday at peaceful protests outside parliament, where the inflammatory “foreign agents” law was being rushed through committee. Having passed its third reading, the bill will go to a final vote Tuesday. It now seems all but inevitable to become law, opening questions about how far the ruling Georgian Dream party will go to cement its control.
Discipline has been the watchword of the protesters, even as they face growing repression from authorities. On Saturday, at least50,000 people (some local sources say200,000) marched through the capital despite the pouring rain, waving Georgian, EU, and some Ukrainian flags while chanting pro-democracy slogans. Using force, police dispersed some who attempted to camp overnight on Sunday, with multiple videos shared on social media depicting vicious beatings.
Georgia-born Eurasia Group analyst Tinatin Japaridze says that once the bill fully becomes law, the focus will shift to general elections scheduled for October. The young people who believe this law willthrottle civil society and rob them of a European-aligned future seem likely to stay on the streets even after the bill passes. “The fight will shift to be about survival: the survival of Georgia’s democracy for the protesters, and the survival of the Georgian Dream party for the government,” she says.
Similar debates over aligning more with the East vs. West have been at the crux of politics for many former Eastern Bloc countries. In some places, like Ukraine in 2014, and Georgia itself in 2003, popular protests have led to more democratic, EU-leaning administrations. In others, like Belarus in 2006 and 2020, the government crushed unrest with force and entrenched a regime servile to Moscow.
We’re watching for how well the protesters preserve their momentum over the next few months, and how the splintered opposition parties handle potential coalition talks. If they can hold together through the autumn, Japaridze says, Georgian Dream might learn its lesson at the ballot box.
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With the huge protests that we see in the streets of Tbilisi, is that a sign of the Georgian government moving closer to Russia?
Well, it is certainly a sign of the Georgian government being more authoritarian and distinctly more anti-Western. And that is, of course, endangering the ambitions of Georgia to move closer to the European Union, eventually membership. We'll see what happens. But Georgia was given this status of candidate country to the European Union. I think what we see now is going to have the consequences that there's not going to be any movement forward on that until we see Georgia moving into more Western, Democratic, and liberal direction.
Which are the implications of the resignation of the first minister of Scotland?
I think what we see there, in that particular crisis in Edinburgh, is part of the decline of the Scottish Nationalist Party. It was the dominant force in Scottish politics for quite some time. It, of course, drove the issue of Scottish independence that was defeated, rather narrowly, though, in a referendum some years ago. But independence isn't the only issue, and they've been stumbling on the one issue and all the others since then. I think what will happen is the return of the Labour Party as the dominant political force in Scotland. And for the time being, the question of independence on a distinct back-burner.
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Protesters barricade the entrance of Parliament during a rally to protest against a bill on "foreign agents", in Tbilisi, Georgia, May 2, 2024.
Georgians take to the streets against ‘foreign agent’ law
Protests against a controversial “foreign agent” bill in Georgia this week have led to violent police crackdowns in the capital, Tbilisi. The bill will require organizations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as foreign agents.
The ruling Georgian Dream party says the measure — which was advanced in parliament on Wednesday — will improve transparency. But opponents say it is identical to a law the Kremlin has used to crush dissent.
The EU warns that the bill harms Georgia’s aspirations of joining the bloc – rhetoric that is expected to ramp up in the coming weeks, according to Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born regional expert at Eurasia Group.
Still, Georgian Dream is expected to get the bill passed, Japaridze says, after shelving it in the face of similar protests last year. The legislation, which must go through another reading, could become law by the end of May.
In the meantime, protests are expected to continue. What began as a demonstration against the bill is morphing into a much broader, youth-led movement against the ruling party and its Kremlin-inspired politics — and in favor of strengthening ties with the West.
“This is a generation that did not grow up under repressive Soviet rule,” says Japaridze. “They’re a lot bolder.”
If the protests spread nationwide, it could “exacerbate the growing rift between Georgian Dream and the public,” Japaridze says, and make “their work and their role very difficult.” Growing public discontent could also signal that Georgian Dream will face serious challenges in crucial parliamentary elections set for October.