Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Members of the Hargeisa Basketball Girls team wrapped in the Somaliland flags walk on Road Number One during the Independence Day Eve celebrations in Hargeisa, Somaliland, on May 17, 2024.
Why does a US senator want to recognize Somaliland?
Last week, US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) became the latest American conservative to voice support for Somaliland, as he publicly urged the Trump administration to recognize it as a country.
“Somaliland remains committed to forging closer ties with the US and is actively engaged in enhancing military cooperation, counterterrorism efforts, and economy and trade partnerships,” Cruz wrote in a letter to the White House. “To do so to the greatest effect and the greatest benefit to American national security interests, it requires the status of a state.”
So why is Cruz interested in a small, de facto state on the east coast of Africa?
First, a refresher on Somaliland. Even if you didn’t know already, you may have guessed from the name that Somaliland is formally part of Somalia, sitting in the northern part of the country and bordering Djibouti and Ethiopia.
It was originally a British protectorate, while the rest of Somalia was an Italian one, but the areas were lumped together when Somalia gained independence in 1960. Thirty-one years later, Somaliland separatists helped to depose the Somali military leader Siad Barre, and they seized on the opportunity to declare independence.
The country, now with a population of roughly six million people, has been operating as an autonomous region ever since. In 2001, voters approved the constitution, establishing a democratic state. Though the functioning of the democracy isn’t perfect, opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi won last year’s election and there was a smooth transition of power – not everyone can say that, whether in East Africa or other parts of the world.
However, not a single country has formally recognized Somaliland as a state, drastically limiting what it can achieve financially – it is ineligible for loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, even though it is more economically and politically stable than Somalia.
So why is Cruz interested? First, Somaliland’s location gives it strategic importance. It lies along the Gulf of Aden, right next to the narrow Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which nearly a third of the world’s shipping passes. It is also across the water from Yemen – if the US had a presence in Somaliland, it could keep a closer eye on the anti-American Houthi rebels who operate there.
“Somaliland has emerged as a critical security and diplomatic partner for the United States, helping America advance our national security interests in the Horn of Africa and beyond,” Cruz wrote in his letter.
But this is also about China, which Cruz references in his note. Somaliland’s location also puts it in close proximity to the growing Chinese military presence in Djibouti. What’s more, Somaliland’s own claims to independence mirror those of Taiwan, who have become an ally to the de jure nation – a top Taiwanese official attended Abdullahi’s inauguration in December. With China positioning itself as a defender of Somalia’s overall sovereignty of the area, Cruz – and many of his fellow Republicans – wants to be at the other end of that.
There’s just one problem. Somalia and its neighbors are littered with security issues, with extremist groups like Islamic State and al-Shabaab – both Houthi allies – sowing chaos in the region, and wars raging nearby in Sudan and Ethiopia. If the US recognizes Somaliland, it could undermine efforts to keep a lid on violence in the region.
There are two reasons for this. First, recognition could undermine the Somali state’s attempts to root out extremism – the government is already a weak one, and al-Shabaab would use such a move to recruit more foot soldiers, something the Biden administration feared.
Next, the US might find itself on the sidelines in terms of tackling extremism in the area. Washington has worked closely with Mogadishu to limit threats from militant groups, especially al-Shabaab. If it legally approves of Somaliland’s status as a country, it will anger Somalia – and potentially one or two other states – and potentially push Mogadishu to focus on issues outside of counterterrorism.
On top of all this, there is a melange of interests in the Horn of Africa from some Middle East & North Africa countries that the US won’t want to anger. In particular, Egypt is a major ally to Somalia, and Trump wouldn’t want to dismantle his relationship with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with whom he shares a close bond.
All to say: it won’t be such a “Cruz” in the park for the US to recognize Somaliland.
Ted Cruz's vacation repercussions; Biden's bind on school reopening
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
Why is everyone so interested in Ted Cruz's vacation?
Well, the junior Senator from Texas took a little trip down to Cancun with his family this week, which normally wouldn't be that big of a deal, except it was in the middle of historic snowstorm that froze the entire state, left millions without water or electricity.
While other prominent Texas politicians are out trying to help people get water, get access to food, get warm, Cruz took off for Cancun with his family. And this immediately broke on social media causing him to come home the next morning, under the excuse that he was just escorting them down there overnight. But Ted Cruz is officially Twitter's bad guy for the day, and this probably has lasting repercussions, forming popular opinion of him, while the rest of the state freezes.
What is the Biden administration doing to reopen the schools?
Well, the Biden administration is in a bit of a bind because they've been sending conflicting messages. Their CDC director said that it's probably safe for teachers to go back to the school, even without the vaccine. But their political operation has been a little bit more gun-shy in part because of their alliance with the US teachers' unions, who don't want to send their teachers back if there's even a remote possibility that they might get sick. Biden himself has been a little bit mixed in his messaging about when they want to get people back to school, but the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill that we expect to pass in the next several weeks, includes tens of billions of dollars for school reopenings, on top of the hundreds of billions of dollars that have already been spent in the CARES Act and the December relief bill. So, money is not the problem getting kids back in school right now. It's the willingness of families and the willingness of teachers to take the risk.
Protest against the verdict restricting abortion rights in Warsaw, Poland.
What We’re Watching: Polish abortion protests, US stops Saudi/UAE arms sales, GameStop’s wild run
Poland abortion showdown: Poland's conservative government has moved ahead with controversial restrictions on abortion that set the stage for the return of large protests. The new rules, which prohibit abortion even in cases of severe fetal abnormalities, were first approved by a constitutional tribunal last fall, prompting hundreds of thousands of protesters led by women's groups to hit the streets in the largest demonstrations since the fall of communism in 1989. Faced with that backlash, the government delayed implementing the new rules for several months before abruptly changing course on Wednesday. Even before the new rules, Poland had some of the tightest restrictions on abortion in Europe — last year barely 1,000 women in Poland had the procedure done, with fetal abnormalities accounting for almost all of those cases. Abortion has become a lightning-rod issue in a deeply Catholic country that is increasingly split between the conservative rural areas that form the government's voter base, and liberal big cities where the opposition is strong. We are watching the streets of Warsaw and Krakow to see what happens next.
US arms sales to UAE, Saudis on hold: The Biden administration has paused the planned sale of billions of dollars worth of US arms to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in order to conduct a wider review of all pending deals made under former president Trump. This is a common move for new administrations, but it may signal a broader change in recent US foreign policy regarding Yemen, where the Saudi-UAE coalition's five-year campaign against Iran-backed Houthi rebels has contributed to what the UN calls "the world's worst humanitarian crisis." While pressure from US lawmakers to review arms sales to Saudi Arabia grew in 2018 after the murder of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Trump administration held firm. But new US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on the record criticizing Saudi conduct in Yemen, and many Democrats — who now control Congress — are encouraging Biden to "reset" America's relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. That would rankle Israel, which supports arming both nations to counter Iran's regional influence, and which recently normalized ties with the UAE as part of a US-brokered deal in which the Emiratis would get US fighter jets.
The politics of GameStop: This week, a populist revolt of sorts came to the stock market, of all places, as thousands of anonymous retail stock traders who connected via the social media platform Reddit got together to boost the stock price of video game chain GameStop by more than 700 percent, causing crippling losses for several hedge funds who had bet against the stock via "short" positions. The drama escalated when RobinHood — the no-fee stock trading app used by many of the GameStop buyers — suspended trading of the stock. RobinHood said it was to restore market stability, but the move seemed to allow hedge funds breathing room to recoup their losses, while preventing small-fry investors from continuing their buying spree. Cue: predictable outpouring of populist rage. Politicians of both parties seized on the story to call for tighter regulation of Wall Street, with even mortal political enemies such as Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Republican Senator Ted Cruz reaching a rare, if fleeting, consensus. There are a lot of potential issues for authorities to look at here, from policing how hedge funds operate, to regulating retail traders differently, to even looking at social media liability in instances of market manipulation. Expect a lot of politics around these issues in the coming weeks.- Updated to correct earlier version, which stated that RobinHood trading suspension prevented day traders from cashing out.