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Political turmoil in Israel
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
So much happening in the world right now. I think I want to focus in on Israel. Why? Well, because it is unprecedented in scale, the demonstrations, people's power taking to the streets, particularly in Tel Aviv. This is a population of less than 10 million in Israel, and hundreds of thousands are saying that they strongly oppose the efforts by Bibi Netanyahu and his coalition government to rest control of the judiciary, allowing the parliament to overturn judicial decisions from the Supreme Court and also allowing more control of executive appointments to Supreme Court justices. This is not just about opposition from the population at large. It's also been the Minister of Defense who publicly opposed the first cabinet official to do so, in part because large numbers of enlisted men and women are saying that they will not serve in the military if this judicial reform passes, unprecedented in a country where you have an enormous patriotism around mandatory national service that all Israeli men and women participate in.
Suddenly you've got hundreds that are saying, maybe thousands, hundreds that we know of that have said publicly that they are not prepared to serve if this goes through. You have the head of the Tel Aviv police force demonstrating publicly with the protestors yesterday. All of this has led to huge moves against the Israeli shekel, against Israeli ETFs, against the Israeli investments in the markets that we've really not seen. Usually the marketplace kind of shrugs off anything that happens in Israel or military challenges with the occupied territories, the Palestinians, even wars that we've seen historically with Syria because they think that the Israeli economy is going to power through it, not this time. And Netanyahu, we are waiting. At any moment, it looks reasonably plausible that he is going to announce a suspension of this reform.
We'll see if he makes that announcement. He's supposed to speak earlier in the day. He hasn't. I expect part of this is because he needs his entire cabinet on board. He has a relatively slim majority in the parliament, in the Knesset, only some eight seat majority total. That means his parties have four more than the majority. You already have the National Security Minister publicly saying in past hours that he would bring the government down if they were to withdraw this proposed legislation. Though you also have the judicial minister who was the author of this judicial reform saying he's prepared to support Netanyahu if he decides to go ahead and suspend. And in part, it's because of just how angry the Israeli people are. Perhaps the biggest issue here, even more than the defense minister, is the fact that the largest union in Israel has, for the first time in Israeli history, called for general strike. They have over 800,000 working members.
This is in a country again of about nine plus million. So we're talking about almost a quarter of the total workforce involved in a general strike. That means you're not getting a Big Mac today in Israel because all of the McDonald's are closed. It means that you're not leaving on a plane or going to Israel because all the airport workers are striking. Shopping centers, city hall, municipalities, you name. It is an economic suspension of activity and that can't last for long. If Netanyahu persists and decides that he's going to go ahead with this reform, it would not only be a significant erosion for Israeli democracy, but it would also be an enormous hit for the Israeli economy. So at this point, I think it's hard to imagine that he's going to do that. Of course, the other side of the coin is that if he pulls back, is he going to maintain support?
Will Likud MPs, his party all stick with them? It wouldn't take many to flip to bring the government down. Will all the remaining cabinet ministers decide that they're going to stay, including those from the hard right parties that are aligned with him necessary for this government? Where do we see the demonstrators going from here? They're very, very angry about the undermining of an independent judiciary, but they're also angry about other things. Very little in terms of the Palestinian issue that we've seen over the course of the past weeks, but a lot in terms of women's rights that also have taken a significant hit over the course of this new government and lots of other social issues that are significant to large numbers, particularly of young people in Israel today.
Ultimately, I feel more bullish about where this is going than not, and what I mean by that is Israel is a more resilient democracy than a country like Hungary, than a country like Turkey. So the ability of one leader, even though he's an enormously smart leader and very strategic, to be able to single-handedly change institutions for his benefit and undermine democracy, I suspect that Bibi is going to end up more like Bolsonaro in Brazil, more like Trump in the United States. Also, by the way, more like AMLO in Mexico, not able to do significant structural damage to these institutions and as a consequence ending up out of power.
But it's hard to bet against Bibi. This is a guy who has come back and come back and come back again. Also, Israel is a very fragmented political system. Lots and lots of political parties, lots of ways to get to a majority. And of course if Bibi's out, you could end up with yet another series of electoral cycles where Israel's not able to get a functional majority in place in parliament. So not necessarily going to be easy or strong governance in Israel anytime soon, but also Israel's democracy is not fighting for its last gasp and the people of Israel and the military of Israel showing that very clearly today.
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A night out on Tel Aviv’s Democracy Boulevard
I headed out Saturday night into the arid Tel Aviv night. Not knowing where I wanted to end, I followed the flapping sea of blue and white.
Throngs of people — kids, wheelchair-bound elderly, 20-somethings locked in arms — hauled Israeli flags, which in recent weeks have taken on a whole new meaning for Israelis fearful of where their country is headed. Usually waved as a symbol of national pride, the flag has morphed into an emblem of dissent.
Though spring has just landed, the air was thick in Tel Aviv. And that highlights again the idiosyncrasy of a cosmopolitan, progressive hub in the heart of the Middle East.
I followed the steady beating of drums and arrived at the recently dubbed Democracy Boulevard.
More than 200,000 people hit the streets of a cramped Tel Aviv — in addition to hundreds of thousands in cities around the country — for the twelfth week in a row to protest the Netanyahu government’s attempt to set on fire the symbiotic relationship between the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and the Supreme Court.
Absent a formal constitution, it’s all they’ve got.
As thousands of protesters marched, sang, and chanted, a crackly version of the Declaration of Independence — recited in 1948 by David Ben Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister, a kibbutznik with Albert Einstein-like hair — blasted over a loudspeaker.
The founding fathers, the background narration reminded the crowd, had vowed to “foster the development of the country for the benefit of all its inhabitants … based on freedom, justice, and peace as envisaged by the prophets of Israel.” The point being made was clear and direct: we’ve digressed.
But as is often the case with large, leaderless movements, the demonstrations here have at times evolved into a broad display of public rage with an unruly focus.
I encountered many women wearing fire-engine red, holding signs lamenting the perceived anti-women agenda of Israel’s most right-wing government in history.
(Just last week, the government rejected a law that would require men charged with domestic abuse from wearing ankle-tracking devices. Itamar Ben Gvir, the far-right minister responsible for law enforcement, says the law would unfairly malign men.)
On Kaplan Street, a handful of women painted the palms of their hands red, meant to represent the government’s indifference to domestic violence after five acts of femicide in 2023 alone. They stood beside makeshift coffins labeled with the names of women recently murdered by their husbands.
It was a disarming scene and I thought about Michal Sela, a young woman with milky skin and smiling eyes I once knew, who was stabbed to death in 2019 in Jerusalem. In a small country like Israel, the pervasive issue of domestic abuse hits home.
There were also other discordant agendas at the scene. A large chorus of anti-settlement protesters held signs against “Israeli apartheid,” some waving Palestinian flags. Many walked by dismissively and asked Ma hakesher? (what’s the connection)? To them, elusory chants about the occupation fail to meet this specific moment. But for others, it’s all one of the same — an asterisk hovering over Israeli democracy.
Perhaps that gets to the heart of it all: Competing visions of what Israel can — and should — be.
I approached a group of pensive-looking seniors donning shirts that read “Diplomats for democracy.” I asked them about their stories and why they were there.
Shlomo Gur, 70, is a former diplomat who represented the Israeli government in the US, South Africa, and elsewhere over a 20-year career in the foreign service. He said he “has never seen anything of this magnitude from a grassroots movement in Israel” in his entire life. Gur explained that he fears his country is “going down the drain.”
This sentiment was cross-generational. Stav Tsur, 27, said she is committed to “fighting for democracy” and against a government that she deems to be “corrupt.” Asked if she thinks protests are having any impact on government decision-making, she said that they already are,” pointing to the fact that the proposed legislation is “already moving much slower” through the Knesset than many expected.
Finally, I spoke to a female doctor wearing a religious head covering who preferred not to be named. She said she showed up as much to send a message of solidarity to her fellow citizens as to protest the government itself. “It’s important that everyone feels that lots of different people feel the same way and that we’re in this together,” she said.
I continued along Kaplan Street but turned around just before the Ayalon highway, where police were targeting protesters with water cannons. Growing more and more frustrated with a movement that won’t yield, they have used increasingly heavy-handed tactics to try to quash the group’s spirit.
The crowd showed little sign of dispersing, but my sister and husband were hungry. Time to dig into some falafel and call it a night.
Check out a few photos from the evening below.