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Move Forward Party leader and PM candidate Pita Limjaroenrat celebrate the party's election results in Bangkok, Thailand.
A guide to Thailand’s messy post-election politics
On Sunday, Thai voters shocked the ruling pro-military establishment by delivering a landslide victory for the democratic opposition. Okay, so that means the generals are out, right?
Nope.
For one thing, the men in uniform pre-rigged the election. After taking over in a 2014 coup, they rewrote the constitution to appoint the entire 250-member Senate, which picks the prime minister along with 500 MPs elected by popular vote. To form a government without the army’s consent, you need a majority of at least 376 seats, equivalent to three-quarters of the lower chamber.
Thailand’s military, with a long and rather successful history of intervening in politics, did this to ensure they would still call the shots no matter how their coalition performed at the ballot box. (Even before tweaking the charter, the country’s fragmented parliament and weak party system made it difficult for any party to win an outright majority.)
Regardless, the frontrunner for PM is 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat, a telegenic, English-speaking businessman whose progressive Move Forward Party got the most votes and seats. Against all odds, MFP bested the Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party backed by exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, whose parties had won every single Thai election since he swept to power in 2001.
MFP and Pheu Thai — now captained by Thaksin’s millennial daughter, Paetongtarn — quickly announced a six-party coalition to form a government. But together they only have 309 seats, 67 shy of the minimum threshold to override the army’s likely Senate veto.
To get that supermajority, the opposition might reach out to an unlikely kingmaker: the Bhumjaithai or “Thai Pride Party,” which came in third with 71 MPs. Bhumjaithai’s claim to fame is having led the charge for Thailand to legalize recreational cannabis, which the government actually did last year despite the country being famous for its very tough anti-drug laws.
Unfortunately, being pro-weed puts Bhumjaithai at odds with Pheu Thai, whose socially conservative rural base hates stoners and supported Thaksin’s bloody war on drugs in the early 2000s. Similarly, Bhumjaithai is also an establishment royalist party that won’t allow MFP to reform Thailand’s draconian lèse-majesté laws, popularly known as “112” for the article in the criminal code that punishes offenses to the king with up to 15 years behind bars.
What’s more, even if these three parties cut a deal, a very big if, the generals won’t leave without putting up a (political) fight.
The Thai army has ways to hold onto power despite losing big in the election. Its political allies could seek to dissolve MFP on bogus election law violation charges, as they did with its predecessor, Future Forward. (That disqualification triggered the 2020-2021 youth-led protests that rocked Thailand and turned out many first-time voters to back MFP.)
And if that doesn’t pan out, the generals might try to use the judiciary to remove the premier on even more ludicrous grounds. After all, the constitutional court once fried a sitting PM for … hosting a cooking show.
Still, if the generals pull a fast one, there could be major trouble ahead. How would you feel if you voted for change, yet got more of the same?
If anything is certain in Thai politics, it’s that violent street protests are sooner or later followed by a military coup, with the king’s blessing of course. And that’ll plunge the Land of Smiles deeper into political Groundhog Day.
Mourners carry the bodies of Palestinians, including militants, killed in an Israeli raid, during their funeral in Jenin
What We’re Watching: West Bank violence, Czech election runoff, Thai coup jitters
After Jenin raid, Palestinian militants vow “revenge”
At least nine Palestinians were killed Thursday in Jenin in one of the deadliest West Bank operations in recent years carried out by the Israel Defense Forces. Israel’s military said it stormed the Jenin refugee camp to arrest members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad suspected of carrying out and planning “multiple major terror attacks.” Authorities confirmed that at least seven gunmen and two civilians were killed in the operation that also injured 20 Palestinians. While members of Israel’s new right-wing government have been criticized for wanting to relax the military’s rules of engagement, this raid was part of a long-running effort to root out terror groups in the northern West Bank, which began last year after a series of attacks that killed 31 Israelis – retaliatory missions notably led to more than 100 Palestinian deaths. Israel is now on high alert, fearing a slate of missile strikes from the Gaza Strip as well as unrest in the West Bank and Jerusalem after Palestinian terror outfits – including Hamas and PIJ – vowed “revenge.” Friday saw a limited exchange of Palestinian rockets and Israeli airstrikes.
Czech runoff held after nasty campaign
Czechs vote on Friday and Saturday in a presidential runoff that pits former PM Andrej Babiš against former General Petr Pavel. Babiš, a Euroskeptic populist billionaire who leads the opposition in Parliament, says Pavel will drag the country into a war with Russia. Pavel, a Europhile who once headed NATO’s military council, says his opponent is a scaremongering liar. Each candidate has, for good measure, accused the other of collaboration with the pre-1989 Communist regime. Babiš made headlines abroad this week by saying he wouldn’t send Czech soldiers to defend NATO allies, though he later walked it back. Pavel, whose campaign slogan is “Let’s bring back order and calm,” leads the polls by double digits, but his outsized support among urban and younger voters may be better reflected in surveys than Babiš’s older, more rural base. Czech presidents are mostly ceremonial, but they can influence government formation and policy, and they represent the country abroad. Over the past decade, outgoing president Miloš Zeman – a Babiš ally – repeatedly stoked controversy, in part because of his overt sympathies for Russia.
Thaksin's return spooks army ahead of Thai election
The political temperature in Thailand is getting hotter in the run-up to the May election. This week, PM Prayuth Chan-ocha abruptly ended a press conference when he was asked if deposed former PM Thaksin Shinawatra might return to the country from his Dubai exile — perhaps if his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, becomes premier. "Don't talk about that man. I don't like it," the ex-army chief snapped before walking off stage. This gives us a sense of what the powerful Thai military might do if the family gets even close to winning back power. It's an open secret that the men in uniform hate the family, which has dominated Thai politics for a generation. (Prayuth himself helped oust first Thaksin and later his sister, Yingluck, in military coups before turning civilian PM.) Still, a Thaksin-backed party has won every single Thai election since 2001, and Paetongtarn is slaying Prayuth in the polls. Buckle up for a lot of political trouble this year in the Land of Smiles, where politics are deeply personal and the army is fond of taking over when it loses at the ballot box.Protesters challenge Thai King's military command
BANGKOK • Hundreds of protesters marched on a barracks of Thailand's royal guards unit yesterday, hoisting inflatable rubber ducks high above their heads in a whimsical show of force by a pro-democracy movement calling for curbs to the power of the monarchy.
Thai protesters challenge king's military command
BANGKOK (REUTERS) - Thai anti-government protesters challenged on Sunday (Nov 29) King Maha Vajiralongkorn's personal control over some army units to condemn the military's role in politics.
Thai exiles in fear after murders and disappearances
BANGKOK (REUTERS) - When members of the exiled Thai protest band Faiyen learned that the concrete-stuffed bodies of two Thai activists who had disappeared from Laos had been found in the Mekong River, they grew worried about their own fates.
10 must-reads for today
Thailand holds its first election in eight years on Sunday under rules concocted by a junta to keep it in power, but with the appeal of both old foes and the new millennial vote posing an unpredictable challenge.