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Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin to Thai king: Pardon me?
Thailand’s billionaire former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has appealed to the country’s king for a pardon just days after being jailed upon his highly anticipated return to the country.
The background: In the early 2000s, Thaksin struck a populist chord to win a slew of elections, and was PM until he was ousted in a 2006 military coup that drove him into exile. Last week, he returned home for the first time since then, only to be jailed on charges of corruption and abuse of power.
The timing: It’s fishy for sure. Thaksin’s return came just as the Pheu Thai Party he founded did a once-unthinkable thing: after recent elections, the party agreed to lead a coalition that includes pro-military parties that were once Thaksin’s bitter enemies. The decision effectively shut out the progressive Move Forward Party, which actually won the elections on a groundswell of youth support.
The speculation: Did Pheu Thai do a deal with the military junta in which it buried the hatchet in exchange for Thaksin’s return and pardon? Keep a close eye on what happens in the next few days. The king has a decision to make, and millions of Move Forward supporters may yet show their anger on the streets. If he’s denied the pardon, he will need to wait two years, presumably in jail, before asking again.
Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of Thailand's Move Forward Party, reacts after failing to win parliamentary support to become prime minister.
Political trouble brews in the Land of Smiles
Late on Thursday, the Thai parliament rejected opposition leader Pita Limjaroenrat's bid to become the country’s next prime minister. Pita, whose progressive Move Forward Party won the May 14 election, was 51 votes shy of the supermajority needed to clinch the premiership. (For more on that, read our explainer here.)
It's been a hell of a week for the 42-year-old Pita, who campaigned on loosening the country’s draconian lèse-majesté laws, known popularly as "112" for the number of the article in the criminal code. Before losing the vote for the top job, election authorities tried to disqualify him as MP for running while he owned shares in a media company — doing that is illegal under a law that the ruling pro-army coalition passed in order to prevent former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, a media mogul, from ever returning to power.
What’s next? Although parliament will hold another vote next week, Pita is unlikely to do better. His unprecedented push to water down 112 is a bridge too far for the establishment parties whose support he’d need.
If Pita bows out, things could get interesting. Thaksin himself could return from exile under a possible deal between his Pheu Thai party and those that support the military backed-government. But that could trigger protests by angry young Thais who support Pita and the MFP.
Bracing for violent demonstrations, the army has already ringed the parliament building in Bangkok with shipping containers. But if Pita doesn’t get the PM nod, that might not be enough to contain angry Gen-Zers in a country that's seen its fair share of political protests — as well as coups to end them.Move Forward Party, Pheu Thai party, and coalition partner leaders sign an MOU in Bangkok, Thailand.
Uncertain Thai premiership vote
On Monday, the Thai parliament will meet for the first time since the May 14 election to pick the next prime minister. Whoever gets the nod, some people won't be happy about it in a country with a checkered history of political turmoil: shaky governments, colorful protests, and military takeovers.
The candidate with the most support is Pita Limjaroenrat, the baby-faced leader of the progressive Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in the election. But a multi-party coalition headed by the MFP doesn't have enough votes to overcome a de facto army veto in the Senate. For more on this, read our primer.
If by some miracle Pita finds the votes to clinch the premiership, the ruling generals will look for ways to oust him, such as using the loyal courts to disqualify him on bogus charges. (The ultra-conservative, royalist elite views Pita as a spoiled brat who wants to kneecap the king's power.)
But the most likely outcome is either an army-backed minority government or the Pheu Thai (For Thais) party — supported by influential ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra — cutting a deal with pro-establishment forces. That might include a pardon for Thaksin to return to Thailand after 15 years in exile.
Either scenario will surely trigger mass protests led by young people, who overwhelmingly voted for Pita and took to the streets in 2020-2021 to challenge the political elite. And if there’s violence, remember the Thai army is the world champion of coups.Move Forward Party leader and Thai PM candidate Pita Limjaroenrat during the press conference of coalition parties in Bangkok.
Election body probes Thai PM hopeful
On Monday, Thailand's electoral commission announced it is investigating whether PM frontrunner Pita Limjaroenrat was qualified to run in last month's general election.
Huh? Shouldn't that have been settled before the vote? Not in Thailand, where the army-backed political establishment has perfected the art of gaming the system to stay in power when it loses at the ballot box.
Pita is accused of being knowingly unfit to run for MP because he owned shares in a media firm, which is verboten under Thai election rules. But the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party argues that those shares were not under his name and the media firm has been inactive since 2007.
Still, no matter how ludicrous the charge might sound, keep in mind this is Thailand, where in 2008 a prime minister was (legally) removed for ... hosting a cooking show.
If Pita gets disqualified, political turmoil is all but assured in the Land of Smiles. In early 2020, the election fraud conviction of the head of Future Forward — basically the MFP before it rebranded — triggered a youth-led protest movement that forever changed Thai politics by calling to reform the once-untouchable monarchy.Thailand votes for change
Opposition parties won Thailand's general election, according to a provisional tally released Monday. It was a particularly good day for the progressive Move Forward Party, which promised to curb the power of the army and decentralize the country’s Byzantine bureaucracy. MFP now looks set to win at least 151 seats in the 500-seat lower house.
Crucially, the party’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, has vowed to reform the country’s draconian lèse-majesté law, under which criticism of the monarchy can result in a whopping 15-year prison sentence. That message resonated with millions of first-time voters following mass youth-led protests that for the first time raised the issue in 2020-2021.
For more on what’s at stake in this election and why it’s all about the Thai youth this time around, see our explainer here.
Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai party – headed by the daughter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, who fled Thailand in 2008, two years after being deposed in a coup – looks set to come in second. Pheu Thai and MFP have agreed to form a coalition government to, well, move forward.
Though pro-military parties got walloped in the election, they could still come out triumphant thanks in large part to a constitutional reform that allows the military, which seized power in a coup in 2014, to tap all 250 members of the Senate. (The PM is chosen by both houses of parliament and the anti-military parties fell short of the supermajority needed to override a Senate veto.)
MFP owes its success to the Gen Z voters who back its liberal agenda. Still, given the outsized power of the military in Thai politics, there will be lots of wrangling in the weeks ahead to elect a PM and form a government.
Thailand's former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
Not now, Thaksin!
We recently predicted that the shadow of self-exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra would loom large over the May 14 Thai election. Now the stakes just got a lot higher.
On Tuesday, Thaksin announced that he plans to return before his 74th birthday in July, almost 15 years after he skipped town when he was about to go on trial for corruption. Thaksin, ousted in a 2006 coup, was ultimately convicted in absentia of several charges that add up to over a decade in prison.
Although Thaksin says he just wants to raise his grandkids and won't be a burden to his daughter, Paetongtarn, currently leading the polls for her dad's old job, it's hard to imagine how he won't.
Thaksin has dominated Thai politics for a generation, and the prospect of his return might boost voter turnout for Paetongtarn. But he’s also a polarizing figure — despised by the generals who now run the country under a civilian government (and who deposed his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, in 2014).
Also, Thaksin needs a royal pardon to avoid arrest. Don't count on it: In 2019, King Vajiralongkorn blocked his own sister, Princess Ubolratana, from running for premier … under Thaksin's party.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai party's prime ministerial candidate, at a campaign event in Bangkok.
Thaksin’s shadow looms large over upcoming Thai election
Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra remains a powerful force in Thai politics 17 years after the military ousted the billionaire businessman from office and drove him out of the country. His party, Pheu Thai (or its predecessors), has won the largest number of seats in every election since 2001 with its populist appeals to the rural poor. But it has been twice ousted from power via military coups. In addition to Thaksin (Thais go by their given name), his sister Yingluck suffered a similar fate, in 2014.
Ahead of the May 14 elections for the House of Representatives, Pheu Thai is getting a fresh boost from the next generation: Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn, 36, has emerged as an energetic campaigner and one of the main contenders for prime minister. Yet Pheu Thai faces a battle obtaining the nation’s top job given the conservative establishment’s dominance of the political system.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford to explain why.
Who are the main candidates and parties running on the establishment side?
United Thai Nation, led by 2014 coup-leader-turned-PM Prayut Chan-o-cha, and Palang Pracharat Party, led by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan (both military-linked parties), as well as the Democrat Party are the main parties of the conservative establishment – wealthy Thais, the military, and ardent supporters of the monarchy. The Bhumjaithai Party also leans conservative and is in the current ruling coalition, but it is more ideologically flexible than the others. Fragmentation within the establishment will be an important watchpoint for post-election government formation talks.
What about the opposition?
Pheu Thai has nominated three candidates (the maximum allowed per party) for prime minister; the two key ones are Paetongtarn and Srettha Thavisin, a real estate tycoon. Move Forward — the successor to Future Forward, which was dissolved in 2020 — is the other main opposition party. Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, is the party’s sole nominee for prime minister. While Pheu Thai and Move Forward share a desire to reduce the military’s influence in politics, they otherwise have little in common. Pheu Thai’s heartland is the populous, mostly rural and poor north and northeast regions, whereas Move Forward’s strongest support is among young, middle-class urban voters, many of whom are not fond of Thaksin or his daughter, a political novice. Moreover, Move Forward has dared to discuss the role of the country’s monarchy, a sensitive issue, though it has backed away somewhat from this recently. But its stance has helped it to win the support of student protesters who took to the streets in 2020-2021, calling for democratic reforms and checks on the monarchy’s power.
Who's leading the polls?
Pheu Thai is far ahead. It is highly likely that it picks up the most House seats, by a comfortable margin, but polling is not accurate enough to give us a reliable steer on the likely scale of its victory. Move Forward is second in most polls and appears to be gaining ground.
It looks like the Thaksin-backed party will surely win but won't be able to govern. Why is that?
The country’s 2017 constitution gave the junta the right to appoint 250 senators, who remain in office until 2024 and will vote together with the 500 members of the House to choose the next prime minister. This gives conservative parties an in-built advantage. So, the House elections will not directly determine who leads the next government, though the results will shape coalition negotiations.
The vote for prime minister will take place after the junta-appointed Election Commission has confirmed at least 95% of the House results — it has up to 60 days to do so. There is no time limit on the selection of the prime minister; in 2019, it took about two months from polling day until a new officeholder was confirmed.
What would need to happen for Paetongtarn to become PM? Would the army allow it? Why is Thaksin's daughter so popular?
To get the 376 votes required to secure the premiership, Pheu Thai would need to either assemble a coalition of that many seats in the House or somehow obtain the backing of at least a portion of the senators. On the latter option, it is thought possible that Pheu Thai could join forces with Prawit’s Palang Pracharat Party, even though the two have been fierce opponents. Prayut, on the other hand, is much less likely to consider working with Pheu Thai.
As a member of the Shinawatra clan, Paetongtarn is both wildly popular with Pheu Thai’s supporters and contentious for conservatives. Promises of expensive giveaways such as a 10,000 baht ($290) one-off payment for every Thai citizen 16 years old and above have also surely helped. Pheu Thai could put forward Srettha for the premiership instead, in the hope the well-known businessman is more palatable to senators.
A Pheu Thai-led government would likely face legal and constitutional pressure, and potentially another coup.
Is there any chance her dad will be allowed to return to Thailand?
This is conceivable if there is a Pheu Thai government, though it would likely trigger protests by pro-establishment supporters and possibly raise the odds of a coup.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
Mourners carry the bodies of Palestinians, including militants, killed in an Israeli raid, during their funeral in Jenin
What We’re Watching: West Bank violence, Czech election runoff, Thai coup jitters
After Jenin raid, Palestinian militants vow “revenge”
At least nine Palestinians were killed Thursday in Jenin in one of the deadliest West Bank operations in recent years carried out by the Israel Defense Forces. Israel’s military said it stormed the Jenin refugee camp to arrest members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad suspected of carrying out and planning “multiple major terror attacks.” Authorities confirmed that at least seven gunmen and two civilians were killed in the operation that also injured 20 Palestinians. While members of Israel’s new right-wing government have been criticized for wanting to relax the military’s rules of engagement, this raid was part of a long-running effort to root out terror groups in the northern West Bank, which began last year after a series of attacks that killed 31 Israelis – retaliatory missions notably led to more than 100 Palestinian deaths. Israel is now on high alert, fearing a slate of missile strikes from the Gaza Strip as well as unrest in the West Bank and Jerusalem after Palestinian terror outfits – including Hamas and PIJ – vowed “revenge.” Friday saw a limited exchange of Palestinian rockets and Israeli airstrikes.
Czech runoff held after nasty campaign
Czechs vote on Friday and Saturday in a presidential runoff that pits former PM Andrej Babiš against former General Petr Pavel. Babiš, a Euroskeptic populist billionaire who leads the opposition in Parliament, says Pavel will drag the country into a war with Russia. Pavel, a Europhile who once headed NATO’s military council, says his opponent is a scaremongering liar. Each candidate has, for good measure, accused the other of collaboration with the pre-1989 Communist regime. Babiš made headlines abroad this week by saying he wouldn’t send Czech soldiers to defend NATO allies, though he later walked it back. Pavel, whose campaign slogan is “Let’s bring back order and calm,” leads the polls by double digits, but his outsized support among urban and younger voters may be better reflected in surveys than Babiš’s older, more rural base. Czech presidents are mostly ceremonial, but they can influence government formation and policy, and they represent the country abroad. Over the past decade, outgoing president Miloš Zeman – a Babiš ally – repeatedly stoked controversy, in part because of his overt sympathies for Russia.