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The Veepstakes: Who will Donald Trump pick as his running mate? Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, Doug Burgum and Marco Rubio

Luisa Vieira/GZERO Media

The Veepstakes: Who will be Donald Trump's VP pick?

With Donald Trump set to announce his vice presidential running mate in the coming days, we explore the possible contenders — and their viability.

Tim Scott 

Tim Scott

Tim Scott

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who withdrew from the race for the Republican nomination last November, has been campaigning hard for Donald Trump – and he has his eye on becoming vice president. But will the GOP’s only Black senator get Trump’s VP nod?

Raised by a single mom in Charleston, South Carolina, Scott became the first Black Republican elected to any office in the Palmetto State since the 19th century when he won his 1995 Charleston city council race. In 2008, he won a seat in the statehouse and went on to the House of Representatives in 2010. After one term, then-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley appointed him to fill a vacant Senate seat, and he has easily won reelection three times. He is arguably the most recognizable elected Black Republican in office today. (Could Tim Scott become Trump's No. 2? Continue to read here.)


Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik

Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, a rising star of the GOP, is one of the few women on former President Donald Trump’s vice president shortlist.

When Stefanik first entered the national political scene in 2014, she was considered the new face of the Republican Party. At the time, she was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress and widely considered a moderate. Fast-forward to 2024, and Stefanik has drastically shifted to the right. She’s a full-blown MAGA Republican, routinely defending Trump and echoing his talking points – including the white nationalist “great replacement” conspiracy theory. (Could Stefanik, now a full-blown MAGA Republican, become Trump's running mate? Continue to read here.)

JD Vance

\u200bJD Vance

JD Vance

CNP/INSTARimages.com via Reuters

From holler to white collar. That’s the unusual life arc of J.D. Vance, the 39-year-old junior senator from Ohio.

Born into extreme poverty in rural southern Ohio, he grew up in the holler – “the hollow” – surrounded by abuse, addiction, and despair. But he made it out: He joined the Marines, graduated from Yale Law School, and became a successful tech venture capitalist.

He recounted all of this in his bestselling 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” which became required reading after Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton spurred interest in the disaffection of white working-class America. In the book, Vance criticized a culture of victimhood and dependency among poor whites while also blasting the establishment’s condescension and neglect. (Could Vance make it to the very top? Continue to read here.)

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio

Mariana Robertson via Reuters

Florida’s senior senator earned the nickname “Lil’ Marco” for challenging Donald Trump during the 2016 primaries, but he has since forged a close alliance with the former president – so much so that some believe he could be tapped for No. 2.

Rubio was born in Miami to Cuban immigrants who arrived before the 1959 communist revolution — contrary to claims he had long made of them fleeing from Fidel Castro. He speaks fluent Spanish and got his start in politics in 1998 as a city commissioner in West Miami, where the 2000 census showed 87% of residents spoke Spanish as a first language. (Could Rubio stand a chance of becoming the first Latino VP? Find out more here.)

Doug Burgum

\u200bDoug Burgum

Doug Burgum

When Doug Burgum launched a campaign for the Republican presidential nomination focused on economic growth, energy production, and national security, few Americans outside of the Flickertail State had heard of the former software CEO turned governor of North Dakota. Just to get the 40,000 unique donors needed to make the debate stage, he had to give out $20 gift cards in return for $1 campaign donations. While he’s still far from a household name, he has emerged as a dark horse favorite to become Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate.

Who is he? The67-year-old Burgum hails from Arthur, North Dakota — a town of roughly 300 residents — and worked as a consultant at McKinsey & Co before leveraging his family farm to start an accounting software company called Great Plains Software, which he sold to Microsoft for $1.1 billion in 2001. (Would Trump fancy a biz-savvy VP pick? Find out more here.)

Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate?

Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Vivek Ramaswamy, Ivanka Trump, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Tulsi Gabbard & Byron Donalds

Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Vivek Ramaswamy, Ivanka Trump, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Tulsi Gabbard & Byron Donalds

Luisa Vieira/GZERO Media

Donald Trump has been teasing his vice presidential pick for weeks, but with the Republican National Convention kicking off next week, he’s likely to make it official — and soon.

Right now, the front-runners appear to be Sens. Marco Rubio and JD Vance, along with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. But what about the contenders who aren’t grabbing headlines yet remain on Trump’s radar? Here is everything you need to know about the dark-horse candidates.

Nikki Haley: We know, we know, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s former ambassador to the UN fired shots at the former president as his main opponent in the primary. But just because she once challenged him doesn’t mean she wouldn’t be a valuable running mate. (Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Find out more about his wildcard prospects here.)

Will Tim Scott become Trump’s No. 2?

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who withdrew from the race for the Republican nomination last November, has been campaigning hard for Donald Trump – and he has his eye on becoming vice president. But will the GOP’s only Black senator get Trump’s VP nod?

Raised by a single mom in Charleston, South Carolina, Scott became the first Black Republican elected to any office in the Palmetto State since the 19th century when he won his 1995 Charleston city council race. In 2008, he won a seat in the statehouse and went on to the House of Representatives in 2010. After one term, then-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley appointed him to fill a vacant Senate seat, and he has easily won reelection three times. He is arguably the most recognizable elected Black Republican in office today.

Trump recently said Scott was a “better surrogate” than a candidate thanks to the latter’s enthusiastic efforts to whip up excitement for the former president’s campaign. If Scott detected any damnation by faint praise in the remark, he certainly didn’t let it on, saying Trump was “right” when asked about the remarks on Fox.

Eurasia Group’s Jon Lieber says Scott “has a great personal story, he’s a telegenic presence, he’s inoffensive, and he has a good reputation in the Senate that comes along with relationships and domestic policy chops.” That said, Lieber isn’t convinced Scott can help Trump consolidate support with voters who aren’t sold on the former president.

Scott recently launched a $14 million campaign to help Trump make inroads with minority voters in seven swing states, which could ease concerns like Lieber’s if successful. We’re watching how it plays out, and whether Scott’s affability helps temper Trump’s hard edge with voters.

To learn about Trump’s other possible VP picks, check out our Veepstakes series here.


Trump's VP pick: The short list
What is Trump looking for in a running mate? | US Politics

Trump's VP pick: The short list

Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.

What we're watching in US Politics this month. Who Trump picks as his VP.

The big story in US politics this month is going to be the debates which are going to be one of the key moments of the campaign, given the enormous downside risk they present for President Biden due to his age. But the other big event of the summer, other than the conventions, is going to be who Trump picks for his vice presidential candidate. And there's been a number of names floated by the campaign, some more conventional than others. And they each have their own set of strengths.

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A woman attends a campaign rally by former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at Crotona Park in the Bronx borough of New York City, on May 23, 2024.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Bloc by Bloc: Trump gambles to woo Black voters

This GZERO 2024 election series looks at America’s changing voting patterns, bloc by bloc.

________________________________

Updated, Nov. 1, 2024: This piece began our Bloc by Bloc series back in May and can serve as an explainer of how portions of the Black community are realigning away from the Democratic Party. But it was written before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race – and, as we all know, he was replaced by Kamala Harris, a member of the Black community herself.

Flash forward to Nov. 1. A nationwide New York Times/Siena College poll of Black likely voters from mid-October found that 80% of Black voters plan to vote for Harris, an uptick from the 74% who said they would vote for Biden.

But it’s all going to come down to turnout. Democrats need a tsunami of Black voters to win the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina, and they have not quite been hitting their targets in the final few days of the campaign.

In North Carolina, where Harris desperately needs to win over Black voters to drive Democratic turnout to offset Trump’s dominance in rural parts of the state, early voting is showing red flags. So far, Black voters are making up 18% of early voting, two points lower than what she is projected to need to win the state.

In Atlanta, where 42% of the population is Black, early voting shows similar warning signals. Republicans are turning out in higher numbers to vote early than they did in 2022. Pollster Mark Rountree suggests the switch is because of a 22% drop-off in early voting in the Black community compared to 2020.

As the results roll in Tuesday, keep your eyes on Atlanta’s Fulton and DeKalb counties and its surrounding suburbs of Gwinnett, Henry, and Cobb. These counties are expected to be bellwethers of how Harris is tracking with Black voters nationwide.

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The identity politics trap
The identity politics trap | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

The identity politics trap

From race to gender to profession to nationality, we define who we are in a million different ways. Many people feel strongly about those identities; they are a fundamental part of how we see the world, find community, and relate to each other. But despite good intentions on the progressive left, at what point does focusing on what makes us different from each other hurt our society more than it helps? When does a healthy appreciation for culture and heritage stifle discourse and deny mutual understanding?

On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, political scientist and author Yascha Mounk weighs in on identity, politics, and how those two combine to create the complicated, contentious idea of “identity politics.” Mounk’s latest book, “The Identity Trap,” explores the origins and consequences of so-called “wokeness” and argues that a counter-productive obsession with group identity has gained outsize influence over mainstream institutions.

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Ian Explains: Will voters care about "anti-woke" politics in 2024?
Ian Explains: Will voters care about "anti-woke" politics in 2024? | Ian Bremmer

Ian Explains: Will voters care about "anti-woke" politics in 2024?

What happened to the war on wokeness?

For the past few years, the battle against the “woke mind virus” has dominated Fox News’ nightly coverage, but lately, Fox has led with issues like immigration and inflation. Self-styled “anti-woke” 2024 GOP primary candidates Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy are already out of the race, and anti-woke crusader Ron DeSantis’ poll numbers fell by 20 points in the last year.

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No-show Trump wins first GOP debate
No-show Trump wins first GOP debate | US Politics In: 60 | GZERO Media

No-show Trump wins first GOP debate

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

Who were the big winners and the big losers from this week's Republican debate?

Three clear winners were probably Vivek Ramaswamy, who's done pretty well in making a name for himself as a first time politician, and came across as likable and energetic, full of some fresh ideas that are probably going to appeal to a lot of Republican voters who were otherwise thinking about supporting President Trump. Two is Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina, who had herself a pretty good night scoring some points against Ramaswamy on foreign policy, and coming across as competent and credible. And of course, the third winner is Donald Trump, who didn't show up but kind of dominated the proceedings anyway and continues to be the front-runner even after the debate.

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