top risks 2023

Prigozhin's exit shakes Putin's regime

Prigozhin's exit shakes Putin's regime

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: We have just gotten through an unprecedented turn of events challenging President Putin in a way that he has not since he's taken power in that country. Mr. Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, essentially declaring war against the Kremlin, moving his forces to within dozens of kilometers of Moscow. And then, at the last moment, "cutting a deal" brokered by Belarus's President Aleksandr Lukashenko. He is today still, to the best of our knowledge, a free man. But for how long?

Xi Jinping's zero-COVID reversal |

Xi Jinping's zero-COVID reversal |

If Xi Jinping had a theme song in China right now, for Eurasia Group analyst Anna Ashton it would be Canadian rapper Drake's "0 to 100." That's pretty much how fast he reversed course on zero-COVID. And that explains why "Maximum Xi" — one man with total control over China — is Eurasia Group's No. 2 geopolitical risk for 2023. The risk basically boils down to "maximum impunity and maximum potential mistakes," Ashton noted in a GZERO Live conversation about Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2023 report. In other words, China's leader is so powerful he won't be blamed for anything, even if he messes up badly.

The rogue Russian risk: will war in Ukraine ever end?

The rogue Russian risk: will war in Ukraine ever end?

Vladimir Putin definitely did not have a good 2022. Will he be in trouble this year? Not in the short to medium term, says Eurasia Group Chairman Cliff Kupchan. But that doesn't mean he's completely off the hook. Putin should watch his back from the siloviki, the men in the security services. Meanwhile, Kupchan plays down the odds that Belarus will enter the war in Ukraine, which he doesn't see ending anytime soon.

Ian Bremmer: the risk of AI and empowered rogue actors

Ian Bremmer: the risk of AI and empowered rogue actors

For years, the conversation at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, has mostly put artificial intelligence on the back burner. Not anymore. We're now in a "transformative" moment for AI in terms of how the tech can disrupt the world in both good and bad ways, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer says in a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.

Emerging markets most vulnerable to recession and political discontent

Emerging markets most vulnerable to recession and political discontent

Inflation shockwaves is Eurasia Group's top geopolitical risk No. 4 for 2023. But who is most vulnerable to the effects of rising interest rates and a looming global recession? Emerging markets. Why? For Rob Kahn, managing director for geo-economics at Eurasia Group, these countries are in deep trouble because they have higher debt and more subject to sudden stops of capital flows that'll make it harder for them to pay for stuff. Not to mention that the pandemic has killed any fiscal monetary policy space they had before COVID.