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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards a Ukrainian service member at a position near a frontline, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 22, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Zelensky’s Bakhmut message, Rishi’s post-Brexit win, Trudeau’s take on Haiti, Ethiopia’s peace progress
Russia and Ukraine score points where they can
Volodymyr Zelensky visited frontline troops in war-ravaged Bakhmut, located in Ukraine’s eastern province of Donetsk, on Wednesday as Russian drones struck across the country. While planning for the trip was surely well underway before Vladimir Putin’s surprise stop in Russian-occupied Mariupol last weekend, the contrast underlined Zelenksy’s signal of defiance.
By appearing in Bakhmut very near the fighting, Zelensky reminded the world that, six months after Putin mobilized 300,000 new Russian soldiers for a deeper advance into Ukraine, even the small city of Bakhmut remains beyond their grasp.
In other war news, Russia has warned it will respond harshly to shipments from the UK to Ukraine of anti-tank munitions made from depleted uranium. Moscow claims this step adds an escalatory nuclear element to the conflict. In response, the UK insists the Russian position is propaganda, that the use of depleted uranium is common in anti-tank weapons, and that it contains nothing that can be used to make nuclear or radiological weapons. Finally, Russia has announced a plan to raise an additional $8 billion in revenue by changing the way oil profits are taxed.
All these stories underscore the reality that, while little has changed on the battlefield, Russians and Ukrainians are still looking for every small advantage they can gain in what looks increasingly like a war of attrition.
Has Brexit got “done” yet?
In a win for PM Rishi Sunak, the British House of Commons on Wednesday passed a reworked post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, which was agreed to last month with the European Commission.
Essentially, the proposal known as the Windsor Framework creates two lanes for trade: a faster-flowing green lane for goods transiting only between Britain and Northern Ireland and a red lane with more rigorous customs checks for goods bound for Ireland and elsewhere in the EU. It is unlikely to come into effect for several months as details are ironed out, officials say.
Still, despite the big margin of victory, more than 20 Tories – including Sunak’s two predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – voted against the measure, with Johnson saying it would mean that the UK won't be able to fully embrace the benefits of Brexit (what benefits, he didn’t say). It also signals that in the run-up to next year’s general election, Sunak will continue to deal with a vocal Euroskeptic wing within his party.
Meanwhile, six representatives from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party also rejected the vote, suggesting that the DUP would not lift its boycott on the Northern Ireland legislature, which began almost a year ago. The lack of resolution on this front will make for awkward optics as President Joe Biden heads to Belfast next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles.
Trudeau’s take on Haiti
President Joe Biden heads north on Thursday for his first presidential visit to Canada, where he and PM Justin Trudeau are expected to discuss a variety of issues, from defense and immigration to trade and Ukraine (see our look at likely agenda items here). But Biden is also expected to make some demands about … Haiti.
The situation in the Caribbean nation has deteriorated in recent months. Police have lost control to local gangs, and more than 200 Haitians were killed in the first half of March alone.
The Biden administration is reluctant to get more involved itself but wants Canada to take the lead in addressing the chaos in Haiti. Why Canada? The country has a long track record as a peacekeeper and has had prior involvement (for better or worse) in Haiti, making it an obvious choice from Washington’s perspective. An uptick in Haitian migrants seeking entry to the US and Canada raises that urgency further.
But Trudeau says that “outside intervention” can’t bring long-term stability to the country, and it’s hard to argue with the historical record on that. Meanwhile, many in Haiti worry that outsiders would merely prop up unelected acting PM Ariel Henry. And it didn’t help that Haiti’s largest newspaper ridiculed the recent deployment of two Canadian ships to patrol the coast.
All of this puts Trudeau in a tough spot: Biden wants him to be a reliable security partner beyond Ukraine, but the political fallout from a failed entanglement in Haiti could be disastrous for him. While the Canadian leader will likely make a commitment of some sort for Haiti, will it be enough to satisfy Biden or change the dynamics in Haiti itself?
*From trade and migration to defense, culture, and technology, the US and Canada need each other more than ever. To meet the moment, GZERO Media is launching GZERO North, a new weekly newsletter offering an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping both countries. Subscribe today!
Ethiopia, TPLF take steps in tenuous peace
The Ethiopian government is removing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from its list of terrorist organizations, part of a peace deal with the rebel group signed last November. The decision moves the country closer to what observers hope is an enduring peace after a brutal two-year civil war that has claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.
The situation is very delicate. The agreements don’t include all of the various combatants and are vague about who controls certain disputed territories. And while all sides reportedly committed war crimes, many Tigrayans believe the deal doesn’t hold the Ethiopian federal government accountable. PM Abiy Ahmed’s resistance to a UN investigation inspires little hope.
Still, the momentum is towards peace, for now. Economic interests are part of the reason why. Ethiopia is in bad shape, as the country is wracked by famine, drought, and an estimated reconstruction price tag of $20 billion. A lasting peace would enable Ethiopia to reopen two-year-old talks with the IMF on a $26 billion loan restructuring plan, which was interrupted by the war. Still, with so much bad blood – will these incentives be enough to bind the former combatants to a durable peace? All parties must still tread very carefully …
Is Ethiopia's government about to fall?
Ethiopia's civil war has now reached a crucial moment. Anti-government forces are approaching Addis Ababa, the country's capital, and look set to take control there very soon. "The important question," warns Connor Vasey, Ethiopia analyst at Eurasia Group, "is on what terms they would do so: with the prime minister and his government conceding or with their violent removal."
The background: In 2018, Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia's prime minister, ending 30 years of rule by power brokers from the Tigrayan ethnic group. His pledge to bring Ethiopians of all ethnicities together, to build a modern national identity for his country, and his decision to end the country's long war with Eritrea won him the 2019 Nobel Prize.
But anti-government violence in the Tigray region, home to about six million of Ethiopia's 115 million people, pitted Abiy's government against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which had won power in local elections that Abiy's government refused to recognize.
In November 2020, Abiy launched an assault on TPLF forces, and the fighting that followed killed thousands of people and has driven more than two million from their homes. The UN says all sides in this conflict have committed atrocities, including rape and the murder of civilians.
By July 2021, the bloodshed had spilled over into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, and in August, Abiy called for "all capable Ethiopians" to take up arms to defend themselves against the rebel forces. This only encouraged opposition fighters to believe the government lacked confidence in its own military. The TPLF then teamed up with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), capable militants who fight in the name of Ethiopia's largest ethnic group. The OLA has already consolidated major territorial gains in the Oromia region, which surrounds the capital.
This Tigray-Oromo alliance is now demanding Abiy's surrender or ouster, and it insists that government officials must be charged with war crimes. On November 4, Ethiopia's parliament declared a state of national emergency.
The United States is now trying to broker a ceasefireto avoid a battle inside the capital. The problem, says Eurasia Group's Vasey, is that "both sides know talks are necessary to avoid further bloodshed and disruption but are stuck on the belief they can beat the other side into irrelevance before negotiations begin."
What happens next will matter for decades. A diplomatic deal would save lives, limit the number of refugees seeking sanctuary, and protect Ethiopia's economy — one of Africa's strongest — from potentially catastrophic and lasting damage. But even a deal could quickly unravel, as victorious forces fight over spoils and seek revenge against rivals.
A violent overthrow of the government, on the other hand, "is clearly the worst outcome for Ethiopia," warns Vasey, "because there is no government-in-waiting with nationwide legitimacy that can manage the political, economic, and human fallout."
A vacuum of power in the capital would paralyze Ethiopia's government and create economic upheaval in every region of the country. That, in turn, could multiply the number of refugees seeking sanctuary. In fact, neighboring Kenya has already tightened its 500-mile border with Ethiopia.
Paralysis in Addis would also prevent the Ethiopian government from playing its important role as a peace-broker in South Sudan and a bulwark against terrorist groups across East Africa.
Unfortunately, that worst-case scenario — a violent overthrow of Abiy's government — looks all too likely at the moment, because a prime minister and government officials facing the prospect of war crimes charges don't have much incentive to stand down their soldiers. "We will sacrifice our blood and bone to bury this enemy and uphold Ethiopia's dignity and flag," Abiy declared this week.
A man reacts during a rally to support the National Defense Force and to condemn the expansion of the Tigray People Liberation Front fighters into Amhara and Afar regional territories at the Meskel Square in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia August 8, 2021.
What We're Watching: Everyone vs Ethiopian PM, Brazil ditches Huawei, (more) trouble in Sudan, Argentina's midterms, Iraqi powder keg
Opposition forces unite in Ethiopia's civil war. The Tigray People's Liberation Front, which has been locked in a brutal year-long civil war against Ethiopian government forces, has now teamed up with another powerful militant outfit that wants to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The TPLF, now in alliance with the Oromo Liberation Army — which claims to represent Ethiopia's largest ethnic group — have swept towards the capital Addis Ababa in recent days, prompting the embattled Abiy to call on civilians to take up arms in defense of the city. The Tigray-Oromo alliance, called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist Forces, has called for Abiy's immediate ouster, either by negotiation or by force, and for the prosecution of government officials for war crimes. The UN says all sides in the conflict have committed abuses. The US, which has threatened to suspend Ethiopia's trade preferences over the government's alleged war crimes, is currently trying to broker a cease-fire. When Abiy came to power after popular protests in 2018, he was hailed for liberalizing what was formerly an extremely repressive government (controlled, as it happens, by the TPLF). Now it's looking like he may have unleashed the very forces that could tear the country apart and drive him from office — or worse.
Is China shut out of Brazil's 5G comp? Earlier this year, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro set an ambitious deadline to roll out 5G broadband – which provides much faster internet connections — by July 2022. In recent days, telecom firms have been vying to get a piece of the pie as the tender process heats up. Indeed, it's a lucrative prospect for telecom companies in a country where more than three-quarters of the population (or roughly 190 million people) are connected to the World Wide Web. But the process has not been smooth sailing because, well: China. Bolsonaro has been under a lot of pressure from China skeptics within his own government, and Washington, to exclude tech giant Huawei from the bidding wars. Bolsonaro ultimately caved, as Beijing has evidently been locked out of the process for now. Claro, a Mexican-Brazilian venture, and Spain's Telefonica seem to have walked away big winners from the 5G auction after putting up the most cash for spectrum rights. But this is all very awkward because Huawei has been a major tech provider in Brazil for decades, and local cell phone operators also rely on Huawei's tech. What's more, excluding Huawei, by far the most cost-effective supplier of 5G equipment in the country, will increase the project's overall cost, which is now expected to exceed $7 billion. Many remain skeptical that this massive task can be pulled off in just nine months. But whenever it does happen, it will be great news for Brazilians, many of whom live in remote areas with shoddy internet access.
Sudan on the brink. Two weeks after a military coup in Sudan, the country's security situation continues to deteriorate. On Sunday, soldiers responded to pro-democracy protests in Khartoum by tear-gassing and arresting more than 100 teachers who refuse to return to work until the transitional civilian-military government is restored. (The intervention drew comparisons to the harsh crackdown against protesters that eventually led to the ousting of longtime despot Omar al-Bashir in 2019.) Meanwhile, civilian PM Abdalla Hamdok remains under house arrest, and the internet is still shut down. Arab League mediators have arrived in the capital to try to mediate between junta leader Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and the pro-civilian forces, but Burhan refuses to even call the power grab a coup. The country's largest union, which played a pivotal role in the 2019 protest movement, has called a two-day national strike — the opening salvo of a campaign of civil disobedience to force the military back to the negotiating table. Since the generals show no signs of backing down, the odds of more bloodshed are growing by the day.
Argentina votes, ruling party in trouble. Argentines go to the polls this coming Sunday to vote in the country's midterm legislative elections, with the ruling leftwing coalition of President Alberto Fernández bracing for heavy losses in both houses of parliament. The result will likely reflect the outcome of last September's primary elections, where the president's allies got clobbered by the center-right opposition. Since then, Fernández has caved to pressure from his powerful VP, former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (no relation), to double down on social spending and government intervention in the economy to curb skyrocketing inflation. But it hasn't worked: Fernández has capped prices on a whopping 1,432 products, yet annual inflation remains over 50 percent. Without a senate majority, it'll be very hard for the president to get much done in the second half of his term at the worst possible time: economists fear Argentina may stiff the IMF on part of the $45 billion it owes early next year. Another default could lead to a run on banks like in 2001, when the country suffered one of its worst financial crises ever. With presidential elections not on the horizon for another two years, buckle up for a lot of political instability until then.
Iraqi PM's narrow escape. Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi is lucky to be alive after a barrage of explosives was fired at his compound inside a high-security zone, injuring several security personnel. The brazen attack was carried out by pro-Iran militias, who have been violently calling for a recount since their parties did poorly in the recent parliamentary elections. On Friday, the militias tried to breach the fortified area known as the "Green Zone," which includes the PM's compound and Western embassies. Pro-Iran factions are particularly worried that Shia Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — whose party won the biggest share of votes and is trying to form a government — will try to temper Tehran's growing influence over the oil-rich country. (Al-Sadr has called for way less foreign interference in Iraq from Iran and the West). Even before the recent unrest, things weren't going well in Iraq, where power supplies are scarce and the economy is in shambles. What's more, Iraqis have little faith in the political elite's ability to fix things, as was reflected in the record-low election turnout. We're watching to see if this latest round of violence begets… more violence.
What We're Watching: Ethiopia's opposition groups join forces
Opposition forces unite in Ethiopia's civil war. The Tigray People's Liberation Front, which has been locked in a brutal year-long civil war against Ethiopian government forces, has now teamed up with another powerful militant outfit that wants to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The TPLF, now in alliance with the Oromo Liberation Army – which claims to represent Ethiopia's largest ethnic group — have swept towards the capital Addis Ababa in recent days, prompting the embattled Abiy to call on civilians to take up arms in defense of the city. The Tigray-Oromo alliance, called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist Forces, has called for Abiy's immediate ouster, either by negotiation or by force, and for the prosecution of government officials for war crimes. The UN says all sides in the conflict have committed abuses. The US, which has threatened to suspend Ethiopia's trade preferences over the government's alleged war crimes, is currently trying to broker a cease-fire. When Abiy came to power after popular protests in 2018, he was hailed for liberalizing what was formerly an extremely repressive government (controlled, as it happens, by the TPLF). Now it's looking like he may have unleashed the very forces that could tear the country apart and drive him from office — or worse.
Can Ethiopia hold elections in the middle of a civil war?
In 2019, Ethiopia's fresh Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accepted a Nobel Peace Prize for his role in brokering a peace treaty with neighbor and longtime foe Eritrea. At the time, Abiy was hailed by the Western media as a reformist who was steering Ethiopia, long dominated by ethnic strife and dictatorial rule, into a new democratic era.
But barely two years later, Abiy stands accused of overseeing a campaign of ethnic cleansing in the northern Tigray region, putting the country on the brink of civil war.
It's against this backdrop that Ethiopians will head to the polls on June 21 for a parliamentary election now regarded as a referendum on Abiy's leadership. But will the vote be free and fair, and will the outcome actually reflect the will of the people? Most analysts say the answer is a resounding "no" on both fronts.
How did we get here? Ethiopia is deeply fragmented, made up of more than 90 ethnic groups, many of whom have traditionally felt excluded from political power.
Despite accounting for just 7 percent of Ethiopia's population, the Tigray ethnic group dominated Ethiopian politics for decades, after a coalition led by the nationalist Tigray People's Liberation Front helped end the brutal reign of Soviet-backed dictator Haile Mengistu in 1991.
While Tigrayan leader Meles Zenawi, who led the country for twenty years thereafter, oversaw a period of profound economic growth, his was also considered one of Africa's most repressive governments.
Then came Abiy, an ethnic Oromo who when tapped to take power in 2018, pledged to reform a political system that left many Ethiopians feeling marginalized. Abiy promptly released political prisoners from jail, called for exiled Ethiopians to return home, and prioritized press freedom. But in ushering in these reforms, and others, the new PM unhatched the lid on deep-rooted ethnic tensions simmering beneath the surface. Soon after, inter-ethnic resentments boiled over.
Last November, in response to an alleged TPLF attack on an Ethiopian military base, Abiy launched a military offensive in Tigray. The aggressive move was broadly interpreted as comeuppance for Tigray holding regional elections, defying an order from Addis Ababa calling for polls to be stalled amid the pandemic. Abiy, for his part, said it was a response to "treasonous" provocations from the TPLF.
Worsening humanitarian crisis. The military offensive has since escalated into a full blown humanitarian crisis. Many analysts say that Abiy has overseen a campaign of "ethnic cleansing," where Ethiopian troops — backed by Eritrean forces — have brutalized Tigrayan communities; reports of massacres, rapes, and pillaging are well-substantiated. The UN says that at least 350,000 Tigrayans are experiencing famine-like conditions because Ethiopian troops have burned crops, killed livestock, and blocked humanitarian aid. Meanwhile, tens of thousands have been forced to flee to neighboring Sudan, and more than 2.2 million have been displaced.
What does all this mean for the upcoming vote? Abiy was tapped to lead the ruling coalition following the surprise resignation of his predecessor in 2018, so he has long sought a popular vote to earn real legitimacy. Domestically, this validation is particularly important given that Abiy is the first Oromo, Ethiopia's largest ethnic group, to ever serve as prime minister.
But now, many regions will not be participating in next week's vote, citing administrative and security issues. Meanwhile, several political parties, like the Oromo Federalist Congress, are boycotting the election due to a government crackdown on opposition parties in recent months. In total, at least 78 constituencies of the 547 represented in Ethiopia's parliament will not vote on June 21. So even if Abiy wins, it won't be the indisputable victory he wanted.
Unraveling. Despite all its shortcomings, Ethiopia has been deemed a beacon of stability in the chronically volatile Horn of Africa in recent decades, transforming its agricultural and economic sectors to become the third-fastest growing country in the world from 2000-2016.
But as violence persists, there seems to be no end in sight. The TPLF, resentful that it no longer calls the shots in Addis Ababa, has very little to lose, and Abiy has made it clear that he's not backing down either. This threatens not only the stability of Ethiopia, but of the entire region.