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Government shutdown and trade tensions test US economy
As the US economy continues to defy expectations, Eurasia Group Managing Director of Global Macro Robert Kahn says the key question is whether a slowdown has been avoided or merely delayed. “The headline here is the impressive resilience of the US, maybe also the global economy over the last six months,” Kahn tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank–IMF Annual Meetings.
He points to an AI-driven boom and tariff dynamics as major short-term supports, while warning that these trends may not be sustainable. Kahn also highlights deep uncertainty in the US–China trade relationship, describing a “fragile” moment of misunderstanding and escalation. Looking ahead, he flags the uneven nature of US growth and a prolonged government shutdown as key risks that could shift the economic outlook heading into the end of the year.
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Global trade is experiencing a tectonic shift, says UNCTAD's Rebeca Grynspan
The Trump administration’s tariffs have added uncertainty and complexity to global trade, particularly burdening emerging and developing economies.
UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan calls this a “tectonic shift in the trade regime,” noting that negotiations have replaced a potential tariff war.
She warns that vulnerable countries are being hit hardest often facing higher tariffs than major US trading partners despite posing little threat. Grynspan urges the US government to reconsider these trade measures to avoid devastating impacts.
Watch more Global Stage coverage from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Ukrainian Independence Day, Aug. 24, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine blocked from using long-range US missiles, Israeli strike on hospital, Taliban gaining legitimacy, & More
190: Ukraine has not been able to fire US-made long-range missiles – which have a range of 190 miles – into Russia, as Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby blocked Kyiv from using these weapons. Colby is a prominent China hawk who sees support for Ukraine as a distraction from challenging Beijing. Earlier this year, he blocked a weapons shipment to Ukraine, before US President Donald Trump overruled him.
20: An Israeli strike on a hospital in southern Gaza killed at least 20 people, including five journalists, per the Hamas-run health ministry. The Israeli Defense Forces said it “regrets any harm to uninvolved individuals.” Hamas has been known to put its military centers underneath hospitals.
1.3 billion: European and Asian postal services are halting US shipments after Trump revoked the de minimis tariff exemption, which had allowed packages under $800 to enter duty-free. With 1.3 billion parcels shipped under the rule last year, the change threatens global e-commerce, discount retailers, and potentially even personal gift-giving.
15: In a sign that the Taliban is gaining some measure of legitimacy on the global stage, at least 15 countries now have ambassadors in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, including China, Russia, Iran, and several Gulf states. Western countries have yet to embrace the Islamist militant group that now runs Afghanistan, but some are taking steps to engage with them, especially on issues of migration.
92%: Ukraine marked Independence Day with President Volodymyr Zelensky urging perseverance in Kyiv’s Maidan Square, as Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and US special envoy Keith Kellogg visited in solidarity. The holiday marks the day in 1991 when Ukraine’s Parliament voted to reject Soviet rule following a referendum that 92% of Ukrainians voted in favor of.U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping arrive for a state dinner at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017.
Hard Numbers: US extends trade truce with China, Finland charges Russian-linked tanker over subsea sabotage, Smuggler stuffs turtles in socks, and more
90: President Donald Trump on Monday delayed the US’s tariff deadline with China by another 90 days – hours before a previous agreement was set to expire. Beijing responded Tuesday by suspending additional retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The move follows bilateral talks last month in Stockholm, where both sides had signaled a likely extension of the status quo amid fears of a wider trade war.
5: In a first for any NATO country, Finland brought charges against the captain and crew of a Russian-linked oil tanker for suspected subsea cable sabotage, after the vessel cut five cables by dragging its anchor along the Baltic Sea floor in late 2024. While subsea cables are vital for internet connectivity and electricity infrastructure, prosecuting foreign interference is notoriously difficult, as deliberate damage is often indistinguishable from accidents.
40: On Monday, 40 people were killed in the western Sudanese region of Darfur, after rebels from the Rapid Support Forces attacked Abu Shouk, a famine-hit displacement camp which houses at least 200,000 people. Darfur has witnessed some of the worst violence in Sudan’s two-year-long civil war, which has claimed an estimated 150,000 lives and displaced at least 12 million.
850: A Chinese man pleaded guilty on Monday of attempting to illegally smuggle 850 protected turtles to Hong Kong from the United States. The turtles – worth around $1.4 million – were reportedly wrapped in socks and labeled in boxes as “plastic animal toys.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures during a joint press conference with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
What We're Watching: Modi defies Trump on Russian oil, Bolsonaro put under house arrest, Israel proposes full occupation of Gaza
India digs in heels amid Trump’s tariff threat
US President Donald Trump has doubled down on his tariff threat against India, warning he will “substantially” raise the duty on Indian imports in order to stop Delhi from buying Russian oil. India is unmoved, though, calling the threat “unjustified.” This spat might not just be about oil, though – amid ongoing trade talks, Washington is pressing India to open up its massive agricultural markets, a bitter pill for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to swallow.
Brazil’s top court puts Bolsonaro under house arrest
Brazil has placed former President Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest, after he violated the terms of a previous court order by posting on social media. The right-wing leader and Trump ally is on trial for allegedly planning a coup after his 2022 election loss. The latest move is certain to heighten US-Brazil tensions – last month Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, blasting current leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro.
Netanyahu to propose full Gaza occupation
With Gaza ceasefire talks once again going nowhere, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly seek approval to fully occupy the strip at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday evening. Israel already controls 75% of the enclave, and the head of the Israeli military has warned that a full occupation could put soldiers and the remaining hostages, 20 of whom are still believed to be alive, at risk. Israel first took control of Gaza during the Six Day War in 1967, but formally withdrew its military and settlers in 2005 for security reasons. Netanyahu opposed that move at the time.
What's at stake in the US-China trade war
As countries around the world scramble to respond to the Trump administration’s tariffs and renegotiate trade agreements, does China stand to benefit from so much global uncertainty? CNN’s Fareed Zakaria joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss the shifting power dynamic as America retreats from its global leadership role. China, he notes, is hitting its stride in international relations. The Chinese have a stranglehold on critical mineral supply and renewable energy technology, and are pitching themselves as a stable, reliable trading partner to the world.
President Xi Jinping has also softened his tone from the aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy of years past. Beijing is strengthening alliances with Russia, Africa, and across the Global South. Zakaria warns that China sees opportunity as the United States walks away from the global trade system, and will try to drive a wedge between the Western alliance.
“We cannot have dependence on the Chinese, but that doesn’t mean we need to make everything here. This is the mistake I think we're making.” Zakaria says, “We have these deep connections with Canada, with Mexico, Britain, and Europe. Why don’t we use them?”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Are Trump's tariffs the end of the free trade era?
For the last 80 years, America has been a leading advocate of free trade. It built (and benefited from) the rules of the global economic system. But as the Trump administration imposes record tariffs on allies and renegotiates trade agreements around the world, it’s no longer playing by the rules it created. Instead, it's becoming the most protectionist advanced industrial economy in the world. What happens when globalization's biggest backer becomes its biggest critic?
On GZERO World, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria joins Ian Bremmer to discuss President Trump’s tariffs, the rise of protectionism, and US retreat from global leadership, an ideology Zakaria calls the “beating heart” of MAGA. Big economies like China and the EU that rely on trade to maintain growth are increasingly trying to go around the US to make trade deals of their own. But America still has the largest economy in the world. President Trump's trade policies could send shockwaves through the global economic system America has spent generations building. The US has imposed high tariffs on many of its biggest trading partners, and so far, economy appears surprisingly resilient. But is this just the calm before a very big storm?
“The US was the beating heart of the free trade movement, the country that forced all the other countries in the world to open their markets,” Zakaria says, “If you shelter your best companies behind 15, 20% tariff walls, they're just not going to be as competitive.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The new global trade wars, with Fareed Zakaria
President Trump’s policies swiftly rewriting the rules of global trade. As the United States imposes tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, do we risk losing our edge? On the GZERO World Podcast, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria joins Ian Bremmer to discuss what happens when globalization’s biggest champion becomes its biggest critic. For the past 80 years, the United States has been the beating heart of the free trade movement, the country that forced all the other countries in the world to open their markets. But now, Washington is tearing up the economic playbook—levying historic tariffs and recasting the world as a high-stakes, winner-take-all, zero-sum game.
Zakaria says we are living through an age of backlash to 30 years of globalization and that the next 10 years will be a period of “slowbalization,” where we'll see a much slower pace of growth and a much more political economy. Bremmer and Zakaria break down America’s retreat from global leadership, shifting power dynamics between the US and China, European pressure to become more self-sufficient, and whether the Trump administration’s economic gamble is worth the risk.
“The United States has gone from the leading advocate of free trade to being the most protectionist advanced industrial country in the world,” Zakaria warns, “We’ve always invited competition from the world’s best. If we move to something else, I think we lose that edge.”