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Detectives pose in front of the truck used in the Toronto Pearson International Airport gold heist as they give details of the arrests made one year on in Brampton, Ontario, on April 17, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Police make a golden catch, Canada hikes capital gains tax, Haiti names transitional council, Boats wait on Baltimore, Indigenous groups eye energy investments
22.5 million: Police have cracked the case of the biggest gold heist in Canadian history, arresting six people in the $22.5 million caper that involved the theft of a container at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport last year. Two of the suspects were employees of Air Canada.
⅔: No gains, no pain! Canada’s new federal budget increases the tax rate on capital gains from one-half to two-thirds for some payers. The measure, which applies to businesses and individuals whose capital gains earnings exceed $250,000, is projected to net about $19 billion over the next five years.
7: Haiti on Tuesday named the 7 voting members of a transitional council that is charged with selecting a successor to Prime Minister Ariel Henry. Henry, who was unable to return to violence-wracked Haiti following a trip last month to secure international aid, has pledged to resign once the council picks a new PM. The council’s mandate runs until 2026, but it is still unclear when it will actually take power. Last month, Canada dispatched troops to Jamaica to help train an international policing mission for Haiti.
3: After a boat crash brought down a bridge at the entrance to Baltimore’s harbor last month, interrupting shipping at one of North America’s busiest ports, the city opened two alternative shipping channels to accommodate cargo boats. Shipping giant Maersk has said those aren’t deep enough, but there is intrigue afoot: The company also said it had seen unconfirmed reports of a third channel set to open later this month that would be deep enough, and that it was waiting for local authorities to confirm. The ball’s in your port, Baltimore.
3.6 billion: The Canadian government will make available up to $3.6 billion in preferential loan guarantees for indigenous groups that want to invest in natural resources projects. Those projects could include, for example, massive energy transport projects like the Trans Mountain or Coastal GasLink pipelines, as well as a range of renewable energy projects.
A pipe yard servicing government-owned oil pipeline operator Trans Mountain in Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada.
Will Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion pay off?
“It’s been quite a journey,” he says of the many weekends, nights, and early mornings he spent visiting Indigenous communities to secure their consent. By the time he retired in April 2022, more than 60 communities were on board. Barring disaster, the $23 billion project will be completed this year, and Canada will have access to tidewater for an additional half a million barrels of crude a day.
Ottawa stepped in to buy the project when Kinder Morgan pulled out in 2018, and the construction costs have increased sixfold, leading some to call it a “catastrophic boondoggle.”
Justin Trudeau’s government believed the project would add tens of billions of dollars in national revenues by allowing more Canadian oil to reach Asian markets and command a world price. Western Canadian Select crude has typically traded at a discount of up to $16 per barrel, compared to North American benchmark prices, because it all goes to the United States.
The expansion of TMX will end that stranglehold, and most analysts expect the discount to fall to closer to $10 a barrel. The upshot could be more expensive diesel in the US Midwest.
Will Ottawa get its investment back? Pipelines generally trade at around 10-12 times cash flow, which in this case could see Ottawa raise more than $20 billion. But the government, or its successor, may decide to take a lower price to ensure a material Indigenous ownership stake.
“It was not a terrible decision at all, and it was one that only the government could have seen through,” Anderson says, noting the political, regulatory, and legal risks.
Canada produced a record 4.19 million barrels of oil a day in December. The prospect of higher prices, thanks to the Trans Mountain expansion, is likely to see new records set in the future.