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Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks to reporters, announcing that he intends to step down as Liberal Party leader and prime minister from his Rideau Cottage residence in Ottawa, Canada, on Jan. 6, 2025.
Justin Trudeau: The rise and fall of a political golden boy
Justin Pierre James Trudeau’s political life began in the cradle. Born Christmas Day, 1971, to Margaret Sinclair and Pierre Elliott Trudeau, Canada’s 15th prime minister, their eldest son grew up in the spotlight and an atmosphere of privilege. Now, he’s out in the cold, abandoned by his closest allies and maligned by his opponents as Canada, too, joins the global anti-incumbent mood.
Rise to power
As a young man, Trudeau taught drama and snowboarding, but in 2000, his emotional eulogy at his father’s funeral put him on the radar as a future leader. Trudeau delivered public speeches, engaged in advocacy, andmet and married media personality Sophie Gregoire in 2005; the pair were promptly dubbed “the Kennedys of Canada.”
In 2007, Trudeau sought and wonthe party’s nomination in Papineau, a blue-collar Montreal riding that was not a safe Liberal seat, but that he took by just over 1,000 votes in the 2008 election. Trudeau chose Papineau to silence critics who dismissed him as a political lightweight, trading on his family name. He subsequently made headlines again as a young MP in 2012 when he wona charity boxing match against Conservative Sen. Patrick Brazeau. The triumph was unexpected, but it and the Papineau victory highlighted one of Trudeau’s key political qualities: his ability to win when the odds are stacked against him.
The events also positioned Trudeau as a leading contender for the Liberal leadership, which he won in 2013, handily defeating more seasoned political rivals. Trudeau’s message of “hope and hard work” and telegenic appeal galvanized the demoralized base of the third-place Liberals, promising renewal.
Trudeau carried his “Sunny Ways” mantra forward to the 2015 federal election. His focus on youth, diversity, and progressive policies offered a sharp contrast to Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, suffering from voter fatigue after nine years in power. The Liberalssurged from third place to win a majority government, with Trudeau becoming Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister.
Progressive achievements
Trudeau’s tenure began with sweeping promises: climate action, reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, electoral reform, and restoring Canada’s global standing. His gender-parity Cabinet,“because it’s 2015” made him the standard bearer for progressivism at home and abroad. The Liberals introduced the Canada Child Benefit, cut middle-class taxes, and legalized recreational cannabis. On the international stage, Trudeau championed multilateralism, free trade, and feminism, curating a swoon-worthy, media-friendly brand as the heir apparent to liberals such asoutgoing US President Barack Obama.
Trudeau won two subsequent elections in 2019 and 2021, though with diminished mandates. His signature initiatives included a national carbon tax, the renegotiation of NAFTA (USMCA) in 2018, the advancement of LGBTQ+ rights, legalized assisted dying, and stronger gun control. To maintain the support of the New Democratic Party for his current minority government, he also enacted a national $10-a-day daycare and free dental care for children, the elderly, and the disabled, and paved the way for a national pharmacare program.
Creeping failures
However, Trudeau’s tenure is also marred by broken promises and ethical lapses. His failure to implement electoral reform and maintain “modest” deficitsalienated both left- and right-wing segments of his base. TheSNC-Lavalin political interference scandal in 2019, coupled with Trudeau’s lavish vacations and the emergence of a series of blackface photos from his youth, further damaged his credibility on ethical and racial issues.
Indigenous leaders accused him ofnot making meaningful progress on reconciliation, while frustration over inflation, housing costs, and an overstretched healthcare system have fueled public anger. Trudeau also greenlighted immigration policies that saw millions of newcomers enter the country between 2022 and 2024, further straining the country’s already scarce housing supply.
On the international front, Canada’s relationship with China deteriorated following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. Canada’s relationship with India also suffered following accusations by Trudeau that the government of Narendra Modi masterminded the assassination of a Khalistani terrorist on Canadian soil. A recent public inquiry also revealed foreign interference in the Canadian electoral system, with accusations that Trudeau did not act on crucial information about his own MPs.
The black swans
Ultimately, Trudeau was undone by two black swans. The first was Donald Trump. The US president’s year-long tariff war with Canada in 2016 forced Trudeau to sideline domestic priorities to tackle the renegotiation of NAFTA. Trump’s Muslim ban also inspired Trudeau’s viral tweet welcoming refugees to Canada, which was followed by a surge in immigration and refugee claims – now a hot-button issue as anti-immigrant sentiment rises and the government backtracks on its welcoming policies.
The second swan was the COVID-19 pandemic. Trudeau drew initial praise for rapid financial relief programs, but also criticism for vaccine procurement delays and vaccine mandates. In 2022, Ottawa was occupied by a “Freedom Convoy,” which paralyzed the nation’s capital and saw Trudeau invoke the Emergencies Act, Canada’s equivalent of martial law. That event galvanized the Conservative opposition and contributed to the election of a new Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, Trudeau’s fiercest critic, who nowappears poised to replace Trudeau.
The end
By 2025, Justin Trudeau’s political career had come full circle. He rescued his party from its third-place finish in 2013, only to return it to a possible third – or even fourth-place finish – were an election to be held today. He once again found himself the object of derision by Trump, and also an object of rancor at home.
Then, after the shock resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 10, the dominoes began to fall inside the Liberal Party. With the looming threat of a non-confidence vote when Parliament resumes in January, three of the four Liberal regional caucuses demanded that Trudeau quit, and with a general caucus meeting set for this Wednesday, Trudeau finally decided the odds were insurmountable. On Jan. 6, 2025, he announced his plan to stand down as Liberal Party leader.
What’s next?
Trudeau leaves his party, and his country, with a very murky future. He has no obvious natural successor, and the timeline and process for a leadership campaign are not yet known. The Liberals’ organization is severely weakened – with the party practically non-existent west of Ontario – and their policy agenda is exhausted. According to Eurasia analyst Graeme Thompson, “Whoever ascends to the leadership may well face snap elections, and there is a real risk that the party could fall to third or even fourth place. It also faces the stark choice between pivoting back towards the political center or cementing its alliance with the leftist NDP.”
All this comes at a moment of considerable uncertainty for Canada, with the economy sputtering, tensions over immigration and the cost of living rising, Quebec separatism beginning to re-emerge, and Ottawa facing a new Trump administration that will drive a very hard bargain in trade talks, over border security, and on the broader foreign and defense policy front. If the Conservatives win the next election as expected, they will inherit serious challenges on several policy fronts, beginning with US-Canada relations and delivering on campaign promises to cut taxes, boost growth, and rein in the cost of living.
Trudeau’s full legacy will be judged in time. But for a leader who promised "Sunny Ways," his political twilight is anything but.