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President Donald Trump speaks to the media as he leaves the White House for a trip to Florida on April 3, 2025.
Reality hits on new tariffs, but Trump says it’s ‘going very well’
The reviews are in: US President Donald Trump’s widespread tariff plan isn’t most loved, and especially not with the markets. Stocks have plummeted, layoffs have begun, and confusion has metastasized about the bizarre method the United States used to calculate its tariff formula.
The reaction from countries affected by the tariffs, though, was relatively muted. The European Union and China threatened to retaliate if the Trump administration didn’t withdraw these new duties, but they haven’t explicitly made any moves yet. The United Kingdom drew up a list of potential US products it could tariff but hasn’t yet taken any specific actions. Australia outright won’t retaliate.
Big bully. These major economies will take a hit, but it could be the smallest countries that suffer the most. Due to the tariff formula — which ostensibly involves dividing the US trade deficit with a country by the total amount of imports from it, and then halving this number — nations like Lesotho, Myanmar, and Nauru must deal with new duties approaching 50%. Their humble economies rely on producing for the mammoth US market, so these huge price hikes could devastate them. As if dealing with a 7.7-magnitude earthquake wasn’t enough.
Totally chill meeting. The new tariffs overshadowed a NATO summit in Brussels on Thursday, one that was supposed to focus on reaffirming the military alliance between the United States and its European allies. Despite US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s conciliatory tone, leaders across the pond expressed dismay at the new levies, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arguing that economic security was linked to “overall security.”
Whatever the complaints from Europe, Trump is unlikely to reverse course, says Eurasia Group trade and global supply chain expert Nancy Wei.
“The newly introduced tariffs under President Trump’s administration are designed to be a lasting ‘tariff wall’ around the US,” Wei said. “It is improbable that negotiations will lead to major tariff reductions or complete removal.”
While some thought Trump might reverse course in the face of market volatility, the US president didn’t seem too fazed by the chaos. He told reporters on Thursday that he thought it was “going very well” and likened the situation to a patient having surgery. “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country's going to boom,” he added.
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz looks on as he sits next to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in the Oval Office on March 13, 2025.
Will Waltz face the music?
Someone needs to take Michael Waltz’s phone out of his hand. The National Security Advisor’s tech scandal continues, as documents shared with the Washington Post revealed on Tuesday that he was conducting government business on his personal Gmail account, and Politico learned on Wednesday that he created at least 20 Signal group chats to discuss various foreign policy issues. These revelations follow the Signal chat scandal from last week and the discovery of Waltz’s public Venmo account. Penny for your thoughts, Hillary Clinton?
Apples and oranges. Whereas Clinton’s communications emerged following an FOIA request from a right-wing nonprofit, it’s unclear how the former Florida congressman’s emails and information about the other Signal chats got to journalists. One GOP strategist familiar with FOIA requests argued that the way these stories were characterized — the Washington Post said it had “reviewed” the documents — reveals they were leaks.
His last Waltz? The White House isn’t happy with the former Army officer. Though US President Donald Trump spared him after the Houthi chat debacle, Waltz has faced questions about his relationship with Jeffrey Goldberg,the journalist he inadvertently added to the chat.His responses have been awkward, and his position now looks to be under threat. To make matters worse, Trump fired three members of Waltz’s team on Thursday, seemingly leaving Waltz on the brink.Elon Musk waves to the crowd as he exits the stage during a town hall on Sunday, March 30, 2025, at the KI Convention Center in Green Bay, Wis.
Is Elon Musk on his way out?
Donald Trump is reportedly telling people that he and Elon Musk have agreed that Musk’s work in the US government will soon be done. Politico’s story broke just as Musk seems to have discovered the electoral limits of his charm.
Musk, who has been leading a contentious push to cut spending with his Department of Government Efficiency, is becoming less popular, which is taking a toll on his electric automobile company, Tesla.
Musk’s money and organizational support helped get Trump elected, but the billionaire hit a political wall in Wisconsin on Tuesday when Democrats easily won a state supreme court contest that he had said was important “for the future of civilization.” Musk and allies spent $20 million and gave out two $1-million checks in a lottery-style giveaway to boost the Republican vote. The Tesla CEO even attended a rally in a cheesehead hat, but the Democrats still won, keeping their majority on the court.
The departure of Musk, whose wide-ranging cuts have been cheered by some Republicans but booed by others, could remove an irritant with voters who object to Musk’s layoffs and firings. But he and Trump are expected to remain political allies even after Musk leaves the government, in part because Trump will want his money and organizational help in the midterms.An aerial view shows a truck crossing into the United States over the Cordova of the Americas border bridge, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on April 2, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Border apprehensions plunge, Maplewashing crops up, Fentanyl trickles in, Trump puts “Truth” on the block
7,180: US border authorities apprehended just 7,180 migrants illegally crossing the Southern Border in March, the lowest monthly number on record. The figure marks a twentyfold decline from the monthly average over the past four years as the Trump administration’s sweeping crackdown on undocumented migration continues. A recent poll put popular support for Trump’s immigration approach at 49%, the highest mark of any issue.
6: You may have heard of “pinkwashing,” “greenwashing,” “sanewashing,” or the more conventional “whitewashing.” But now there’s “maplewashing.” As of mid-March, Canadian authorities have busted six companies for fraudulently claiming their products are made in Canada rather than the US. The crackdown comes as the “Buy Canadian” movement, which boycotts American products, continues to grow in response to Donald Trump’s threats against Canada.
0.1: Donald Trump has said fentanyl is “pouring” into the US from Canada. But one man’s “pour” is another man’s “barely perceptible trickle.” Turns out, barely 0.1% of the drug seized along the US northern border last year actually came from Canada, according to government data obtained by the Globe & Mail. The remaining 99.9% came either from Mexico or from elsewhere in the US.
2.3 billion: The truth may be priceless, but Truth Social? That’s a different story. President Donald Trumpsuggested this week that he was open to selling his $2.3 billion stake in the social media company, which is a competitor of X in the microblogging space. The company has lost some 40% of its market value this year amid a wider stock market plunge triggered by uncertainty about Trump’s trade and tariff plans.
Turkey's protests & crackdowns complicate EU relations
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Do you think the Signal controversy in the US will have an impact on the transatlantic relationship?
Well, not in itself. It does betray an attitude to security issues that is somewhat too relaxed, to put it very mildly. But what does betray as well is the disdain, the resentment, the anger against Europeans that is there from the vice president, the secretary of defense, and others, and that is duly noted. And of course, something that is subject of what we have to note it. It's there. It's a fact.
What impact do you think the Turkish protest and instability will have on Turkish relationships with its European allies?
Well, it's certainly not going to be a good thing. We have an interest in good relationship and stable relationship with Turkey. It's a significant EU strategic actor. It's a significant economy. But of course, when we have these arrests of a prominent opposition, politicians, we have massive protests that are repressed, that we have massive violations of social media and arrests of journalists and things like that. It does complicate things to put it very mildly. We haven't seen the end of that story yet.
Trump & Elon's grand plan to liberate you EVEN MORE
Trump is worried that Liberation day was a flop. Elon Musk has some ideas for how to make it Great Again. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
Vice President JD Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, tour the US military's Pituffik Space Base in Greenland on March 28, 2025.
The price is right: Greenland edition
It’s just business, baby: The Danes send around $600 million per year to Greenland, and an unnamed official told the Washington Post that the United States is prepared to spend “a lot higher than that” to lure Greenland into America’s orbit. While the US has not shared exactly how much they are prepared to spend, JD Vance recentlyreiterated the claim that Copenhagenhad not “devoted the resources necessary … to keep the people of Greenland safe.”
But that doesn’t explain the combative approach when a US president could simply seek a bilateral meeting with Denmark to discuss opportunities to expand America’s presence in the Arctic. By forcing his territorial interests on Greenland, Donald Trump risks isolating America’s closest partners. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen in Nuuk on Wednesday told reporters, “The US shall not take over Greenland. Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders.”
What does this have to do with Russia and China? Trump and Vance have claimed that acquiring Greenland will protect the island from Russian and Chinese encroachment. But special envoy Steve WitkofftoldTucker Carlson that the US and Russia are “thinking about how to integrate” their Arctic energy policies and “share sea lanes” to send gas into Europe together, suggesting that American ownership of Greenland could foster better cooperation with Russia.
Is there art to this deal? A mix of financial incentives and political ideology is likely behind Trump’s interest in Greenland. Trump has long touted Andrew Jackson as an inspiration and mentioned “manifest destiny” in this year’s inaugural address, so his wandering eyes are to be expected. But here’s a hot take from Ian Bremmer: Maybe Trump and his team “don’t have any reason” for the proposed land grab and all of this “will eventually blow over.”President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office flanked by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the day he signed executive orders for reciprocal tariffs, Feb. 13, 2025.
Opinion: Searching for signals on ‘Liberation Day’
Now in its third month, Trump 2.0 has sustained a breakneck pace. In recent days, the administration announced 25% tariffs on automobiles, conceived of secondary tariffs for nations buying oil from Venezuela (and potentially Russia and Iran), and reiterated its interest in “getting” Greenland.
Market participants have held their breath for Wednesday – “Liberation Day” – as the administration is set to unveil global tariffs, the lynchpin of its America First trade policy.
As the zone has flooded, predicting the current administration’s next moves has become an Olympic-level sport. Details of a group chat between senior administration officials that leaked last week – the so-called Houthi PC small group – provide allies, adversaries, and watchers with revealing insights into the administration’s foreign policy blueprint.
Reestablishing deterrence
While campaigning, President Donald Trump was fond of saying that no wars broke out during his presidency and that the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel-Gaza would never have happened if he had been president. In the run-up to his inauguration, Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine on his first day in office (later extended to within six months). On Gaza, Trump posted on social media that Hamas would have “all hell to pay” if they did not release Israeli hostages before he was sworn in.
Whether the administration was prepared to back up these threats with action hung as a giant question mark. During his first term, Trump largely avoided large-scale security operations. The major exception was the January 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force. This time, the risk of threatening “all hell” is that to establish credibility, you may have to administer “all hell.”
On March 15, the US military began conducting a series of air strikes on Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen – the operation at the heart of the group chat.
Exchanges in the chat tell us this use of force was strategic by design.According to the transcript, after Vice President JD Vance shared concerns about conducting the attacks, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth countered, “We are prepared to execute, and if I had final go or no go vote, I believe we should. This is not about the Houthis. I see it as two things: 1) Restoring Freedom of Navigation, a core national interest; and 2) Reestablish deterrence, which Biden cratered.” The message is clear: this is not about the Houthis; this is about the Trump 2.0 administration telegraphing its willingness to carry out “all hell.” TheUS has reportedly deployed B-2 bombers and cargo planes to the region as a further indicator of the administration’s apparent willingness to conduct additional strikes.
A ledger of allies
Hegseth’s remarks also reveal another principle of the Trump 2.0 foreign policy: Isolationism is dead, long live America First. During the first Trump administration, there was a sense that the president’s focus on rebuilding manufacturing jobs and tightening immigration meant that the US was taking its ball and going home. Now, Trump and his team are scanning the horizon, looking for angles, and from Greenland to Canada to Venezuela and Yemen,no stone is being left uncovered.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, Houthi militants have targeted shipping assets traversing the Red Sea, depressing trade through the channel and setting off a global rerouting of trade. Trump ordered the sea lanes reopened. As laid out in the group chat, the administration sees it as the US's role and a core national interest to restore freedom of navigation. In fact, according to Hegseth, “VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC. But [US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz] is correct, we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this. Nobody else even close.”
Much has been made of the anti-Europe tone of the conversation. Anyone sitting in European capitals will certainly be disappointed by the language and accompanying content that the US will be looking to Europe to foot its security bill. But anyone sitting in European capitals hopefully already knows to expect this. That Trump (like President Barack Obama before him and President Joe Biden after him) wants to see Europe pay more for its collective defense is not new or news. What should, however, buoy Europe is that the US still counts itself on the same side of the ledger as its Western allies and that it feels a responsibility – a unique responsibility – toward them. This is not a case of the US pulling up the drawbridge. This is a US administration taking aim and looking for others to help settle the bill.
There can be no doubt that following the daily turns of the US administration can leave the rest of the world gasping for air. In his second term, Trump’s true north is legacy – perhaps even athird term. Through a relentless drive on tariffs, secondary tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and other measures, he is further aligning national security and economic security toward an ambition of bringing revenue and investment back to the US. This is a years-long project, beginning on Liberation Day, and no three-month period can definitively judge its outcome. The administration initiated the Houthi operation to backstop its economic policy prong with a hard-power policy prong. Going forward, when threats of a “bad situation” or of bombing Iran are made unless a deal is struck, they will carry weight.
Still, Trump hopes that his “proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier.” The US is not leaving the world alone, for better or for worse.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.