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Ukraine fires US missiles into Russia. What's next?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Ukraine has launched US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time. Will this change the course of the war?
I don't think so. First of all, the reason the Americans were dragging their feet for so long is because they didn't believe it would have any strategic impact in the war to give that permissioning to the Ukrainians and they were worried that it might lead to Russian escalation. That escalation is less likely given that Trump has been elected and he's going to be in power in just a couple of months, so the Russians basically have to deal with it, and they'll probably end up hitting more Ukrainian sites in the next couple of months. But I don't think it's really going to help the Ukrainians. I don't think it's going to hurt the Russians that much. What I do think is that the Russians are more likely to give better weapons, more capable weapons, to the Houthis, for example. So, if the Americans are going to arm proxies better, then the Russians will arm proxies better, and that could lead to bigger problems in the Gulf.
How likely will Trump be able to carry out mass deportations when he's in office?
I think he will be capable. He certainly was elected in part on that intention, on that promise. This is something that Biden really did not pay attention to until way too late and he lost a lot of votes in blue cities where people felt like there were just far too many illegal immigrants and the costs were great, and the security concerns were real. And so, the fact that he says he's going to use the military, that's potentially a Supreme Court question, but especially when you talk about people that have committed crimes in the United States, why they should still be in the US is a very serious question. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if 300,000, 500,000 deported in the first year. In other words, a hell of a lot higher than you've seen under Biden. There will be an inflation cost there, but it's one that I don't think Trump is going to take a big hit for.
Will there be political fallout from Hong Kong's decision to jail pro-democracy activists?
Not really, because China has changed the national security law. They've completely integrated Hong Kong into the Chinese political system and the pro-democracy activists don't have anyone that's willing to support them, not the UK, not the United States. I mean, they're human rights organizations, and you'll see members of Congress on the Democrat and Republican side that'll complain about it, but they won't do anything. So on balance, I don't think it matters, and that means, or I should say, it doesn't matter for China, which means very little blowback.
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Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Delhi, India.
Is Europe prepared for a Trump presidency?
And that's of course the big issue around every capital of Europe. There are two major issues and concerns.
One of them, obviously, the Russian war against Ukraine. What will be the US policy? Trump has promised to make peace within 24 hours. That's not going to happen. Putin is determined to continue this particular war. What would be the consequences then? Is Trump going to throw Ukraine under the bus, abandon support and thus abandon de facto concerns for the security of Europe? How would Europe react to that big issue?
Second big issue, tariffs. Trump has said that tariffs is the word that he loves most of all words. And he said that he's going to impose 10, 20% tariffs on all imports and far more on imports, of course, from China. That's going to have hugely negative effects for the global economy, also for the European economy, US economy and everyone else. What's going to be the European reaction to that? Counter tariffs or trying to line up with other global trade actors to preserve as much as we can, open up a big global trading system? Huge issues. No answer until by January 20th we know what the Trump administration is going to do. One conclusion, fairly obvious; we better buckle up.
Trump’s Team of … Reprisals?
Trump team … Assemble!
Usually, obsession with team building is reserved for the world of sports, not politics. There are Hollywood movies about NFL draft day, and the trade deadlines in basketball, hockey, and baseball command all-day TV specials. But those seem trivial compared to the global obsession with Trump Team 2.0. Who is on it, and what does it mean for the next four years?
Cabinet-building has long been crucial for both the success of a presidency and for the direction of the United States. From the presidencies of Abraham Lincoln to Donald Trump, the team often tells the tale of power.
After narrowly winning the election of 1860, Lincoln knew the United States was lurching toward civil war. He needed a united team to take on the emerging secessionist Confederacy, but he didn’t choose loyalists. Instead, he made a radical choice to bring in his chief opponents like William Seward, Salmon Chase, and Edward Bates. In her bestselling book, Doris Kearns Goodwin called this a “Team of Rivals.”
Initially, it looked like a rookie mistake. Seward tried to sabotage Lincoln, leaking false announcements about a surrender of Fort Sumter, the place where, soon after, the first shots of the Civil War were fired.
But Lincoln asserted his leadership without alienating his team, and Seward soon became one of his closest confidants. Co-opting and including his chief opponents is roundly hailed as one of Lincoln’s finest strategies.
If Lincoln put together a team of rivals, Trump has assembled a team of reprisals. This is a group of ardent MAGA loyalists, not rivals — as Ian Bremmer pointed out in our GZERO video. Their job is to radically transform every part of government, from trade policy to foreign policy. There are three goals: reformation, reduction, and reprisal. And that last point is critical. The foundational promise Trump made to voters was to smash “the enemies within.” And that is exactly what this team is built to do.
Here is a starter menu:
- The Deep State: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to actively find “efficiencies” and dismantle large swaths of the government. “You’re fired” will be the watchwords.
- The Military: Pete Hegseth, the veteran and Fox News commentator, is headed for the secretary of defense job, where he has long said he would fire all generals who support programs like Diversity, Equity and Inclusion.
- The Border: Tom Homan, the nominated “border czar,” has warned all illegal aliens to get ready for mass deportation, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be Trump’s Homeland Security chief working alongside Homan.
- The Department of Education: Trump has promised to close this down completely to stop the so-called “woke agenda.”
- The Environmental Protection Agency: Expect former New York Rep. Lee Zeldin to gut EPA regulations. He has already signaled his priorities, with a social media post saying he will “restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs and make the US the global leader of AI. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water.” The EPA might have to change its initials to the DBD, for Drill, Baby, Drill. Still, there are some signs of resistance here. Even the CEO of ExxonMobil pushed back, saying, “I don’t think the challenge or the need to address global emissions is going to go away.”
- Trade: China hawk Sen. Marco Rubio will be the secretary of state, likely overseeing a world of high tariffs that will trigger trade wars alongside the existing wars already raging.
- The Legal System: Matt Gaetz’s nomination for attorney general is taking the most incoming. Gaetz believes he and Trump are victims of Democratic “lawfare,” and he’s ready to hit back. “The hammer of Justice is coming,” declared Elon Musk on X, lest anyone think there will be no reprisals.
To Trump supporters — and that means the majority of voters — this is exactly what they wanted. Expect them to follow through on everything you heard on the campaign trail. As folks used to say, take Trump and his team both seriously and literally.
The president-elect has long claimed he is the victim of multiple attacks from the establishment because he promised to “drain the swamp” and, unlike in 2016, he’s wasting no time assembling a team to fight back. Of the many things to expect from Donald Trump, reprisals are at the top of the list.
How to cover the Trump team fairly?
Covering this transition in a meaningful, insightful way requires genuine balance and adherence to fairness. In the current climate of hyper-polarization, anything but praise for the president-elect can be cast as “woke” bias from the “lamestream” media. On the other hand, anything positive about Trump is often cast as supplicant cozying up to a kleptocracy.
Neither is helpful.
The key is not to focus on the fertilized fears on social media but on the real actions of the Trump team. What will they actually do? Who is benefiting from the radical change?
What will be the impact of their policies on the economy, rights, security, climate, and social coherence?
Each question will have a specific answer, and tracking them with facts and credibility will be key over the next four years. In an environment where distrust and disinformation are weaponized, straight talk and nonpartisan insight will become more valuable than ever.
This is just the beginning of the second Trump era, and it will be significantly more transformative than the first. Trump’s Team of Reprisals is ready to do exactly what they promised on the campaign trail, best summed up in three words: fight, fight fight.
Susie Wiles has been named Trump’s White House chief of staff. A longtime Republican strategist and Florida political operative, Wiles will be the first woman to hold the position.
Everything you need to know about Team Trump 2.0
Susie Wiles has been named Trump’s White House chief of staff. A longtime Republican strategist and Florida political operative, Wiles will be the first woman to hold the position. Before serving as Trump’s de facto campaign advisor in 2024, she was credited with helping Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Rick Scott get elected in the Sunshine State.
Tom Homan has been tapped to serve as “border czar” to oversee Trump’s plans for mass deportations. The former ICE director is a strong believer in border control and will also be responsible for maritime and aviation security. At the National Conservatism Conference in Washington, DC, earlier this year, Homan notably said that if he was appointed to the position “no one’s off the table. If you’re here illegally, you better be looking over your shoulder.”
Stephen Miller, a senior adviser and speechwriter in Trump’s first term, has been appointed deputy chief of staff for policy. He also is expected to play a big role in cracking down on immigration. In an interview on Fox News last week, Miller expressed that he hoped to increase deportation numbers to more than one million per year, and said he hoped to begin them as soon as possible.
To head the Environmental Protection Agency, Trump announced on Monday that he would nominate former Rep. Lee Zeldin, of New York. Zeldin, if confirmed, will be tasked with carrying out Trump's campaign promise to roll back Biden’s climate policies and environmental regulations.
Rep. Mike Waltz, a House Republican and veteran Green Beret, has been chosen to serve as national security adviser. Waltz is a big China hawk who has argued that the US is not prepared enough for a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
Sen. Marco Rubio has been tapped to become America’s top diplomat – in the role of secretary of state. Rubio aligns with Trump in that he is a China hawk and has supported negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. But he is also a proponent of maintaining alliances and could serve as a counterweight to isolationist voices in Trump’s circle on some issues. He is also known for his hawkishness when it comes to Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela — and could make Latin America a much bigger priority for Trump 2.0. Tapping Rubio “suggests that Trump is going to take a more direct interest in Latin American policy this time around,” says Eurasia Group’s Clayton Allen.
John Ratcliffe, a loyalist who served as director of national intelligence in Trump's first administration, has been tapped to become the next CIA director. Ratcliffe is also a China hawk who aligns with Trump on security policy.
Rep. Elise Stefanik will serve as the US ambassador to the UN. She is currently the chair of the House Republican Conference and the only woman in House Republican leadership. She has often criticized the UN, particularly over issues involving Israel and Palestine. She recently called for the US to conduct a “complete reassessment” of US funding for the UN if it continues to consider revoking Israel’s UN membership.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will serve as US ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is also an evangelical pastor and the first non-Jew named to the position in 15 years. He has been a stalwart supporter of Israel’s right to defend itself and of its settlements in the West Bank throughout his career. His appointment is expected to further empower the far right within Israel’s government.
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem has been picked to become Trump’s Homeland Security chief to oversee Immigration and Customs Enforcement, FEMA, the Secret Service, and Customs and Border Protection. Noem is known as a hardliner on immigration, even sending her state’s national guard to the southern border to assist in detaining migrants, and supported Trump’s travel ban from Muslim-majority countries during his first term.
Fox News host Pete Hegseth has been nominatedto become defense secretary. Hegseth is an Army veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq but lacks government experience, and this unorthodox choice is already facing major questions. He is expected to face a tough Senate confirmation process.
Trump has also created new positions for Elon Musk, the world's richest person, and former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a new "Department of Government Efficiency.” Since this cabinet position does not officially exist and cannot be created without an act of Congress, it is unclear how it will increase efficiency or streamline the bureaucracy. Trump says it will “provide advice and guidance from outside the government.”
On Wednesday, Trump announced that former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, a defector from the Democratic Party who was briefly in contention to be Trump’s running mate, has been nominated to become the director of national intelligence. Her prior service as a lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve has made her skeptical of the foreign policy establishment. She has no experience in the intelligence community and has faced allegations of parroting Kremlin propaganda. She is expected to face a tough and possibly unsuccessful Senate confirmation process.
Trump has nominated Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz to serve as his attorney general. Gaetz notably was being investigated by the House Ethics Committee over sexual misconduct allegations until he resigned this past week after being nominated. As one of Trump's closest allies, Gaetz’s nomination raises flags about his ability to put his loyalties aside in a position that is meant to be independent of the president. That said, Gaetz is far from the first AG nominee whose independence has been questioned. The same was said about Eric Holder and Barack Obama, John Mitchell and Richard Nixon, or John F Kennedy and his brother, Robert F Kennedy. However, there are questions about whether the Senate will confirm him.
Speaking of Robert F. Kennedy, his son, RFK Jr., an environmental lawyer and an heir to one of America’s most-storied Democratic families, has been nominated as health and human services director, despite having no medical or public health degree. Kennedy is a vocal vaccine skeptic and critic of the CDC and has promoted theories that suggest HIV is not the true cause of AIDS. His appointment has raised concerns among public health experts and lawmakers that he would spread medical misinformation from the crucial health agency. Kennedy plans to take on processed foods and reform the food system.
Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota who briefly sought the Republican presidential nomination before dropping out and supporting Trump, has been named the president-elect’s pick for interior secretary. Burgum has ties to fossil fuel companies and often served as a liaison between oil executives and Trump on the campaign trail.
To lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Trump has nominated former heart surgeon and television host Dr. Mehmet Oz. The agency oversees the health insurance program more than 150 million Americans rely on, sets policies that guide the prices that drug companies, hospitals, and doctors rely on, and encompasses about a quarter of all federal spending. Dr. Oz has frequently clashed with other medical professionals, including promoting malaria drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to ward off the coronavirus, and was once called before a Senate panel for hyping miracle weight loss products on his TV show without proof that they worked.
Sean Duffy's career has run from starring on the 1990s MTV reality show, "The Real World: Boston," to representing Wisconsin in the Senate, to hosting Fox News Business, to now, being nominated for Transportation secretary. In the announcement of his appointment, Trump said that he hoped that Duffy would use his experience and relationships in Congress to "rebuild our nation's infrastructure and usher in a golden age of travel."
For Commerce Secretary, Trump has nominated the leader of his transition team, Wall Street billionaire Howard Lutnick. The position is one of the most powerful economic roles in government and will take the lead in implementing Trump's tariff and trade agenda, which he fervently supports. Lutnick has been a massive supporter of Trump's campaign, donating $1 million to his super PAC over the last two years and fundraised more than $75 million.
Linda McMahon, another major Trump donor and former professional wrestling executive, has been nominated to lead the Education Department -- an agency Trump has repeatedly threatened to eliminate in his next term. McMahon ran the Small Business Administration for much of his first term and has been critiqued as inexperienced for the role since she has little to no background in teaching or education policy.
Will Donald Trump let AI companies run wild?
Days are numbered for Biden’s executive order
Trump hasn’t given many details about how exactly he’ll rejigger the regulatory approach to AI, but he has promised to repeal President Joe Biden’s executive order on AI, which tasked every executive department and agency with developing common-sense rules to rein in AI while also exploring how they can use the technology to further their work. At a December 2023 campaign rally in Iowa, Trump promised to “cancel” the executive order and “ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one.” (It’s unclear what exactly Trump was referring to, but AI has long been used by social media companies for content moderation.)
The states will be in charge of regulating AI
Megan Shahi, director of technology policy at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, said that a deregulatory approach by the Trump administration will cause a patchwork system that’ll be difficult for AI companies to comply with.
“This can be beneficial for some Americans living in states willing to pass regulation, but harmful for others without it,” she said. “The hope is that states set a national standard that AI companies seek to universally comply with, but that is unlikely to be a reality right away at least.”
While Trump himself is likely to be hands-off, she expects him to “entrust a team of his trusted allies”— such as Tesla and X CEO Elon Musk — “to do much of the agenda setting, decision making, and execution of the tech agenda.”
Will Trump reverse Biden’s chip crackdown?
Matt Mittelsteadt, a research fellow at the libertarian Mercatus Center at George Mason University, said he expects export controls on chips aimed at curbing China’s ability to compete on AI to continue. And while he thinks it’s a harmful idea, he believes a Republican unified government could enact controls on AI software — especially following reports that China used Meta’s open-source Llama models for military purposes.
The biggest change is Trump’s proposed tariffs on China. “For AI, the use of tariffs to either attempt to ‘punish China’ or reshore industry could be an industry killer,” Mittelsteadt said. “AI hardware depends on materials either not found or manufactured in the United States and no amount of trade protection will ‘reshore’ what cannot be reshored. The only possible result here will be financial strain that is bound to tighten the belts of Silicon Valley and yield a resulting decrease in research and development spend.”
This could give China a strategic advantage: “At this critical moment in the ‘AI race’ with China, such restrictions could represent a generational leapfrog opportunity for China’s tech sector.”
In the coming weeks, Trump will announce his Cabinet selections — the earliest indication of how he’ll handle AI and a litany of other crucial policy areas. Personnel is policy, after all. How quickly he can get them confirmed will impact how quickly he can unwind Biden’s orders and chart a new path, especially with a first 100 days agenda that’s likely to be jam-packed. Will AI make the cut or fall by the wayside? Trump hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the clock is already ticking.