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Graphic Truth: Federal employment already dropping
The US Supreme Court on Tuesday allowed President Donald Trump to proceed with widespread cuts to the federal workforce, pending a full trial, overruling a San Francisco judge’s order in May that temporarily blocked layoffs at 22 agencies. Prior to the Supreme Court’s ruling, thousands of government employees had been preparing for mass layoffs, with many notified of their pending terminations but awaiting official confirmation.
Here’s a look at the changing size of the federal workforce, which includes the US military, since Trump first took power in 2017.
Hezbollah beat on their chests as a sign of mourning during a mass rally to mark Ashoura, commemorating the martyrdom of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Hussein.
The Lebanese government wants Hezbollah to disarm – will it?
On Wednesday, the Trump administration’s envoy to Lebanon, Tom Barrack, received a stunning proposal from the Lebanese government– a plan to disarm Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed Shia militia group that has dominated Lebanon’s politics and fought two major wars with Israel over the past 20 years. The process would occur over the next four months, in exchange for Israel halting strikes on Lebanon and withdrawing from the country’s South.
If Hezbollah were to drop its weapons it would redefine the Middle East virtually overnight. But can the Lebanese government really turn this proposal into reality?
On the one hand, Hezbollah has never been weaker. Over the past year and a half, Israel has decimated the group’s leadership and destroyed a great deal of its weapons. The collapse of the Assad regime, a key ally, upended a major smuggling route for weapons from Iran. And the regime in Tehran itself has been hobbled by the recent Israeli and American airstrikes.
Hezbollah has not publicly responded to the proposal, but is reportedly at least considering shrinking its arsenal. However, according to Eurasia Group’s Middle East expert Firas Maksad, “Hezbollah could just be buying time” by appearing open to diplomacy, hoping that the winds in the region shift back in its direction.
Why does the Lebanese government want Hezbollah to disarm? Hezbollah, which enjoys support from Lebanon’s sizable Shia population, is a major challenge to the Lebanese government. The group dominates South Lebanon, providing social services to the population, and it makes decisions about war and peace in the conflict against Israel without the national government’s consent.
“With the exception of Hezbollah’s support base, most Lebanese very much would like to see strengthened state authority and control over weapons,” says Maksad.
They aren’t the only ones. Wealthy international donors, including the US and the Gulf Arab monarchies, have made it clear that desperately needed financial and reconstruction aid won’t flow to the Lebanese government while a powerful armed group like Hezbollah operates effectively beyond state control.
What would it take for them to disarm? Hezbollah and its supporters in South Lebanon see its arsenal as a protection of Shia interests in Lebanon’s fragile sectarian balance, as well as a defense against Israel. Among many in the Shia community, Maksad explains, “any attempt to try and take away the weapons [is seen as] meant to undermine the community.”
He added that real disarmament would require, at a minimum, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon under the terms of ceasefire agreements reached last November.
“There is this sense in Beirut, reflective of Hezbollah’s thinking, that Israel would need to fulfill its side of the obligations before more can be expected,” says Maksad.
But that sets up an impasse: Israel’s position is that it can’t leave Southern Lebanon while an Iran-backed militia is dug in there with weapons pointed at the Jewish state.
So where do things go from here? Maksad says there are two scenarios. One is a slow, drawn-out process where Hezbollah makes limited concessions under the guise of diplomatic dialogue — but without any real, comprehensive disarmament.
The other involves Israel forcing the issue. With its campaign in Gaza winding down, Israel may now look northward again, making a fresh effort to weaken Hezbollah so much that the group has no choice but to surrender.
At the moment, that looks like the way things are headed – Israel on Wednesday night launched a limited attack into South Lebanon, and its attacks on Hezbollah’s territory have ramped up in recent weeks. That almost certainly puts the prospect of a negotiated disarmament further out of reach in the near term.
“I don’t see diplomacy right now providing the required results of fully disarming Hezbollah,” Maksad warns.
A woman lights a cigarette placed in a placard depicting Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, during a demonstration, after the Hungarian parliament passed a law that bans LGBTQ+ communities from holding the annual Pride march and allows a broader constraint on freedom of assembly, in Budapest, Hungary, on March 25, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Budapest Pride parade, Rwanda and DRC peace agreement, SCOTUS ruling on Trump’s executive power
Pride and Politics: the drama in Budapest
Hungary’s capital will proceed with Saturday’s Pride parade celebrating the LGBTQ+ community, despite the rightwing national government’s recent ban on the event. The culture war between the city and “illiberal” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reflects wider urban/rural splits in Hungary. The European Union has urged Orbán to lift the ban and is probing the legality of Hungarian police using facial recognition to identify attendees. Many countries have expressed support for the parade, but the Trump administration, sharing Orbán’s misgivings about LGBTQ+ culture, is not among them.
Rwanda and DRC to sign Trump-brokered peace deal
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo will sign a peace deal in Washington today, hoping to end a conflict that has killed thousands and displaced millions. The war in a nutshell: Rwanda has backed rebel groups that have seized large swaths of territory in the mineral-rich DRC. The Trump administration, which wants a Nobel peace prize for its efforts, brokered the agreement in part to gain access to DRC critical minerals, but critics say the economic terms are still vague.
US Supreme Court hands Trump a win versus the judiciary
The US top court on Friday limited federal judges’ ability to issue nationwide injunctions against executive orders, but did not rule directly on the constitutionality of President Donald Trump’s order to limit birthright citizenship. The 6-3 decision, which halts Trump’s citizenship order for 30 days while other legal challenges play out, was split along ideological lines – the liberal minority dissented. The ruling could affect the roughly 255,000 children born annually in the United States to parents who are neither citizens nor permanent residents, per a Penn State estimate. But it also expands executive power vis-a-vis the courts more broadly. For more on this, watch Ian Bremmer’s recent interview with Yale Law School senior fellow Emily Bazelon.Yale Law School's Emily Bazelon on Trump's showdown with the courts
Listen: President Trump has never been shy about his revolutionary ambitions. In his second term, he’s moved aggressively to consolidate power within the executive branch—signing more than 150 executive orders in just over 150 days, sidelining Congress, and pressuring the institutions that were designed to check his authority. His supporters call it common sense. Critics call it dangerous. Either way, it’s a fundamental shift in American governance—one that’s unlike anything happening in any other major democracy.
While Congress has largely collapsed into partisan submission, and the DOJ and other power ministries face political purges, one institution still stands: the courts. In this episode, Ian Bremmer speaks with New York Times Magazine staff writer and Yale Law School’s Emily Bazelon about how the judiciary is holding up under pressure, what rulings to watch, and whether the rule of law can survive the Trump revolution.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published
Air India Flight AI171 crashed into the hostel canteen of the B.J. Medical College (BJMC), a well-known medical college in Ahmedabad, India, on June 12, 2025, while students were having lunch inside. Casualties in the building is not known.
What We’re Watching: Air Crash in India, Time running out for Iran nuclear deal, ICE protests move beyond LA, anti-immigration violence in Northern Ireland
Deadly plane crash in India
An Air India flight carrying 242 people crashed into a residential area soon after taking off from Ahmedabad in western India on Thursday. The Boeing Dreamliner aircraft was headed to London, and was carrying 169 Indian nationals, 53 British, seven Portuguese, and one Canadian. There was at least one survivor – a British national named Vishwash Kumar Ramesh. So far there is no indication of what may have caused the crash. Boeing, the US largest aircraft maker, has recently been under scrutiny for safety lapses.
US-Iran tensions spike with little progress on nuclear deal
The US on Wednesday evacuated nonessential diplomatic and military personnel from Baghdad and several military bases in the region. The move comes as US President Donald Trump’s two-month deadline for a new nuclear deal with Iran is about to expire. Until now, Trump has pushed for diplomacy despite pressure from Israel which wants to bomb Iran's nuclear sites. If attacked, Iran has pledged to strike American assets in retaliation. There is one more round of US-Iran talks scheduled for Sunday. After that... buckle up.
ICE protests spread beyond Los Angeles
Protests against the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies have spread beyond Los Angeles to cities including Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco, and Denver. Although some have turned violent and hundreds have been arrested, Trump has not sent federal forces anywhere beyond LA, where Marines and National Guard troops remain in the streets. Will that hold? Hundreds of anti-Trump “No Kings Day” protests are planned nationwide to coincide with Trump’s birthday celebration and military parade this Saturday. Watch the streets.
Third-straight night of riots in Northern Ireland
Anti-immigration rioters attacked police with fireworks, bricks and bottles in the Northern Ireland town of Ballymena on Wednesday night, as unrest continued following the Monday arrest of two 14-year-old boys on allegations of rape. Although the police didn’t reveal the boys’ ethnicity, the pair asked for a Romanian interpreter in court. The chair of the Northern Ireland Policing Board described the violence, which has targeted immigrant households and families as well, as “racism, pure and simple.”Graphic Truth: National Institutes for Health funding in peril
The Trump administration wants to slash the budget of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the US’ main medical research institution, by 40% for the next fiscal year.
The move would bring funding levels back to those of the early 1990s, before a huge post-Cold War push to increase non-military R&D nearly doubled the NIH budget.
The current, Trump-appointed NIH Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya reaffirmed his agency’s commitment to addressing “the health needs of all Americans” before the senate on Tuesday. At the same time, more than 300 current and recently terminated NIH employees have accused the director of suspending federal grant funding for ideological reasons.
Here’s a look at how Trump’s proposed cuts stack up against NIH funding over the past 30 years.
Where Trump-Musk bromance goes from here, with Semafor’s Ben Smith
It was an extraordinary public fight between two billionaires—President Donald Trump, the world’s most powerful man, and Elon Musk, the world’s richest. On a special bonus episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Semafor co-founder and editor-in-chief Ben Smith to talk about Trump and Musk’s messy breakup, what led to the explosive public fallout, and whether there’s any chance of reconciliation.
Though their feud appears to be cooling down, there’s still a lot at stake for both men: namely, Musk’s political funding for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterms and billions in government contracts and subsidies for his companies, which Trump has threatened to cancel. In the battle between politicians and tech oligarchs, who holds more power? Will President Trump’s ability to punish his enemies in consequential ways have long-term consequences for Musk? And how does a fight like this change the nature of political journalism when everything is happening in real time in full view of the public? Smith and Bremmer break down the end of the bromance that has defined President Trump’s second term and where the administration’s relationship with Silicon Valley goes from here.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're publishedMembers of the California National Guard stand in a line, blocking an entrance to the Federal Building, as demonstrators gather nearby, during protests against immigration sweeps, in Los Angeles, California, USA, on June 9, 2025.
Trump deploys Marines to LA as political battle escalates
Overnight, hundreds of US Marines began arriving in the city of Los Angeles, where protests, some of them violent, against the Trump Administration’s immigration enforcement have been ongoing since Saturday.
The move marked an escalation by the White House beyond its initial deployment of National Guard troops on Saturday, and it came just hours after California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom sued the Trump administration over that decision, calling it an “unprecedented usurpation of state authority,” and accusing the White House of provoking the protests.
Why are the Marines there? The troops are officially acting on orders to protect federal property rather than to restore order more widely, though US President Donald Trump has suggested they are there to suppress protesters he has labeled “insurrectionists.”
Legal scholars say this rhetoric suggests Trump may be leaving the door open to invoke the Insurrection Act, which authorizes the direct use of the military against US citizens to suppress rebellion.
“The Insurrection Act is still sitting there on the shelf and gives the president enormous power,” Yale Legal Expert Emily Bazelon told Ian Bremmer on the upcoming episode of GZERO World.
It allows the military to go beyond protecting federal property, to potentially breaking up and policing the protests themselves. In an eerie historical echo, the last time a president did this was in 1992, when President George H. W. Bush deployed Marines to quell racially charged riots in Los Angeles that were touched off by the acquittal of police officers in the beating of Rodney King, a Black motorist.
Trump has already tested the legal bounds in LA. When he deployed the National Guard over the objections of Governor Newsom – the first time a president has defied a governor in this way since the 1960s, he invoked Title 10 of the US Code. That’s a law which permits the White House to “federalize” state-based National Guard units if necessary to “execute the laws of the United States,” – in this case immigration enforcement.
California’s lawsuit says that the White House overstepped its authority and that local law enforcement is capable of managing the protests alone.
In the White House vs California standoff there are risks for both sides. On the one hand, Trump has public approval for stricter immigration policy, with a slight majority of Americans, and a robust majority of Republicans, in favor of his policies, according to polls taken before the weekend upheaval.
And with polls showing that only a third of Americans support the LA protests, Trump, who has long styled himself as a “law and order” leader, may also relish the notion of Democrats associating themselves with images of unpopular chaos and disorder on American streets.
But the deployment of federal troops also poses risks – if they are seen harming US citizens there could be a public backlash against an administration that is seen to be overstepping its bounds.
For now, Trump seems keen to push the envelope. “It is 100% true that they’re enforcing immigration laws and that there are lots of people in the country illegally. However, if you were just playing the numbers game, you would go to a poultry factory in the middle of nowhere in the Midwest and pick up a lot of factory workers,” says Bazelon.
“When you choose to go into the heart of a city, onto the streets and publicly snatch people up, you’re kind of asking for a reaction.”