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Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes an announcement on the future of his campaign in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. August 23, 2024.
RFK Jr. bows out, backs Trump, and bucks Democrats
Robert F Kennedy endorsed Donald Trump after suspending his independent campaign for president on Friday. In his speech, he thanked his supporters and accused the Democratic Party of “abandoning democracy” by nominating Kamala Harris without a primary.
His endorsement of Trump was not entirely enthusiastic, with Kennedy saying that the decision to back him was “a difficult sacrifice for my wife and children.” He implied that if Trump wins the White House, he would be given a role that would allow him to “staff agencies with honest scientists,” and “reform the entire food system.”
Kennedy’s campaign was a potluck of populist economics, anti-war leanings, and government skepticism that once had the potential to be a scion for both parties. He peaked in momentum in the fall, when he began to get on state ballots, often polling in the double digits. But as an independent, he had to get on each state ballot independently, an incredibly time consuming and costly effort – his running mate Nicole Shanahan, a wealthy Silicon Valley investor, has sunk more than $14 million into the campaign alone.
By August, his campaign was out of money and down to 5% in the polls, as much of his support came from voters who wanted an alternative to Trump or Joe Biden. Many of those voters have gone back to the Democratic Party now that Harris is in the race.
What now? Trump is expected to gain one or two points from Kennedy dropping out, as well as pick up a few of his donors. 2% of Democrats, 3% of Republicans, and 12% of independents supported Kennedy. We will be watching to see whether the independents heed Kennedy’s calls to vote for Trump, though it is likely that many may choose to not vote altogether.
Trump's potential VP picks
Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate?
Donald Trump has been teasing his vice presidential pick for weeks, but with the Republican National Convention kicking off next week, he’s likely to make it official — and soon.
Right now, the front-runners appear to be Sens. Marco Rubio and JD Vance, along with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. But what about the contenders who aren’t grabbing headlines yet remain on Trump’s radar? Here is everything you need to know about the dark-horse candidates.
Nikki Haley: We know, we know, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s former ambassador to the UN fired shots at the former president as his main opponent in the primary. But just because she once challenged him doesn’t mean she wouldn’t be a valuable running mate.
A major question for Trump’s campaign is how to win back the moderates, independents, and suburban voters who backed Haley and could swing to the Democrats.
How better than to get the woman herself on his side? That being said, although Haley ultimately threw her support behind him, Trump isn’t known for forgiveness — and her team says she wasn’t even invited to the RNC.
“Haley is Trump’s best chance at expanding the field beyond the 312 electoral votes Trump could take from the currently competitive states,” says Eurasia Groups US managing director Jon Lieber. “He won’t pick her, but if he did, it’s a chance to say this is a New Trump with an establishment Republican serving alongside him.”
Sarah Huckabee Sanders: The governor of Arkansas gained Trump’s trust when she served as his second White House press secretary, unwaveringly defending the former president’s decisions in the Oval Office. But at 41 and newly ascendant to political office, Sanders falls short in governing experience.
Byron Donalds: Donalds is a representative from Florida and a vocal supporter of Trump. He’s also a key surrogate in Trump’s efforts to reach Black voters. That being said, Donalds doesn’t have much of a national profile, and his MAGA politics — including outspoken support for abortion restrictions and denial of the 2020 election — could turn off independent voters.
Ivanka Trump: There have been murmurs that Trump has considered keeping it in the family and choosing his daughter Ivanka as his VP running mate. But this is likely just a rumor as Ivanka has said she won't be back for round two.
Tulsi Gabbard: Gabbard is a 41-year-old former House member from Hawaii, a veteran, and — gasp— a former Democratic congresswoman. She endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016, mounted her own long-shot presidential campaign in 2020, and then left the Democratic Party to become an independent in 2022.
She has drawn the attention of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.and Donald Trump. Her magic is that she could attract young voters, independents, and maybe even some disenchanted Democrats to the ticket. But she is relatively unknown nationally and has a record of voting against Trump in the House.
Kristi Noem: The governor of South Dakota and former House member, came to Congress in the 2010 tea party wave. She gained notoriety in conservative circles when she refused to close South Dakota businesses during the pandemic and is tight with Trump. But her hard-line opposition to abortion could cost Trump on the campaign trail. Plus, she comes with baggage — namely, her bizarre description in her memoir of having killed her dog and a goat.
“Noem ended her national ambitions with a story in her book about killing a puppy,” says Lieber. “If there’s one thing that doesn’t play well in national politics, it’s puppy killing.”
Vivek Ramaswamy: Ramaswamy gained national attention with his campaign for president this election cycle. He is a wealthy founder of a drug investment company, which could help fund a general election campaign operation. Plus, he would bring youth to the ticket and be an energetic surrogate for Trump on the campaign trail.
But his lack of political experience — and lack of appeal to moderate voters — makes it more likely that he would be considered for a cabinet position.
Could Doug Burgum be a biz-savvy VP pick for Trump?
Who is he? The67-year-old Burgum hails from Arthur, North Dakota — a town of roughly 300 residents — and worked as a consultant at McKinsey & Co before leveraging his family farm to start an accounting software company called Great Plains Software, which he sold to Microsoft for $1.1 billion in 2001.
His deep pockets allowed him to self-fund an unconventional bid for governor, where he circumvented normal North Dakota Republican party processes by challenging the party’s pick after the convention, overcoming a40-point deficit in the polls.
As governor,he pushed for deregulation and lowering taxes. He oversaw North Dakota achieving the lowest unemployment rate in the country at 2%, a budget surplus, and ranking the best state to start a business according to Forbes. He’s a businessman at heart, and although he signed a restrictive abortion law, he is more comfortable discussing economic development than waging culture wars.
Why is he a front-runner? His supporters see him as a pragmatic counterweight to Trump’s inflammatory impulses and believe he could attract more independent voters to the ticket. They also argue that his business experience would help him advance Trump’s ambitious second term agenda.
He boasts a similar profile to Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, another would-be VP pick and Wall Street’s preference. Both men bring stability, business sense, and appeal that can bring moderate Republicans to the table, but Youngkin has made it clear that he prefers to continue focusing on Virginia.
We will find out next week. After months of teasing the identity of his pick, Trump must eventually end the (sort-of) suspense when he accepts his party’s nomination next week at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.