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Trump’s inaction on wrongful deportation may spark constitutional crisis
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If the US won't work to return a wrongly deported man to El Salvador despite a Supreme Court ruling, are we headed towards a constitutional crisis?
It certainly appears that way, and I think this is the constitutional crisis that the Trump administration would love to have. Because wrongfully deporting someone without evidence who is in the country illegally and therefore guilty of a misdemeanor, but sending them to a max security prison, which the Supreme Court says you shouldn't do, but now is in another country. Very few Americans are sympathetic to the case of this person. And indeed, Trump won on the basis in part of being sick and tired of allowing illegal immigrants to spend enormous amounts of time in the United States without recourse.
So he's breaking the law here. He's flouting independent judiciary and their decision-making, but he's doing it on an issue that most Americans have no sympathy on the other side. So the Democrats would have to be very wary of making this a hill they want to die on, and Trump knows exactly what he's doing. It is pretty impressive playbook for undermining rule of law and checks and balances on an increasingly authoritarian leaning executive. That's where we are.
Trump claims China-Vietnam talks are intended to "screw" the US. Does this run the risk of pushing Vietnam to China?
Certainly, most Vietnamese now are more well-disposed towards China than the US. First time we've seen that since the war. It's not true across Southeast Asia. Philippines, about 80% still pro-US, not pro-China. But it is a problem, and Xi Jinping understands that. And that's why he went in and was received directly by the president as opposed to the prime minister last time who met him at the airport. 45 big deals that they're signing on trying to improve economic coordination. Clearly a bit of a surprise to Trump, just as the direct retaliation from the Chinese, even though the Americans warned them, "Negotiate, don't retaliate." But that's exactly what China did, and Trump frankly should have expected that was coming. Now he looks a little bit weaker in the way he's backing down and creating exemptions for a lot of people in this space.
Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's World Bank debt. Could this be a major turning point for Syria's future and its ties with regional allies?
It certainly helps. We've also seen the Qataris already say they're going to offer gas through Jordan into Syria. I think that this is all promising. The Saudis were never going to do that, provide any support as long as Assad was in place. Now they are. The Americans are pulling troops out, and Turkey is going to be the most important country on the ground. But economically, it's going to be the Gulf States, and that gives this new Syrian regime a better chance to succeed. Something we all clearly are rooting for in terms of one of the places that we'd like to see a little more stability from. Anyway, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Zelensky snubs China’s peace push, Trump vows to end war “very quickly” ›
- China’s vows to pump up its economy — with one eye on Trump’s tariffs ›
- El Salvador's president wins big. What does this mean for the country and its neighbors? ›
- El Salvador's Bukele refuses to return wrongly-deported Maryland man, and offers to jail US citizens too ›
"We've lost enormous credibility around the world" because of tariffs - Summers
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, economist Larry Summers slams the Trump administration’s trade war as “the worst, most consequential, self-inflicted wound in US economic policy since the Second World War.” He says there’s still time to limit the damage—if the tariffs are walked back quickly—but warns that the global fallout is already underway. “Even in the best imaginable place, we have lost enormous credibility in the world,” Summers says, adding that the unpredictability rattles everything from debt markets to US alliances.
When Bremmer asks what the Trump administration is actually trying to accomplish, Summers is at a loss. "I don't see this as a rational way of either pursuing the objective of strengthening US manufacturing or the objective of reducing other countries' trade barriers." And the damage, Summers adds, will be extensive and long-lasting.
"We have lost enormous credibility in the world. We've created a large uncertainty premium about what we're going to do next, and we're going to be seen as a less reliable country...this kind of truculence does not go unnoticed, and it is not immediately forgotten."
Watch full episode: Larry Summers: Trump's trade war the "worst self-inflicted wound since WWII"
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Larry Summers: Trump's trade war the "worst self-inflicted wound since WWII"
On a scale of 1-10, how irritated is former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers by the Trump administration's escalating trade war? He's at an 11. On a special edition of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Summers says he is highly concerned with the White House's ad hoc and escalating imposition of tariffs, which he describes as the "worst, most consequential, self-inflicted wound in US economic policy since the Second World War." He believes that even if the tariffs are reversed, the US has already lost significant credibility globally, which will have long-term consequences for the country's ability to sell debt, form security alliances, and conduct economic and foreign policy.
Summers, formerly the president of Harvard University, also tells Ian that he's more than a little disappointed by the lack of public pushback from US institutions and business leaders, though he understands the complexities they face in speaking out against the administration. But economics aside, Summers is more worried about the threat to American democracy and the rule of law than the health of the US and global economy. Economic damage can be reversed but erosion of democratic norms is harder to recover from.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Who benefits from Trump's tariff wall?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week and what a week it is going to be. An extraordinary downturn in US and global markets. The reaction to 'Liberation Day' where American citizens will be liberated from the highest performing economy in the world. Now, globalization, of course, is what is being undone here by the United States. The US benefited massively from globalization, from cheaper goods and services and capital and people moving more easily across borders all over the world. But the fact that the United States economy as a whole benefited did not mean that the average American benefited. They did not. And indeed, while the top 10% did much, much better in the US over the last 40 years, the top 1% even better, the top 0.001%, not only extraordinarily well, world leading well, but also had the money to capture the US political system and ensure that the policies were exactly what they wanted.
And that has led to a massive backlash in the United States where most voters no longer support free trade. Most voters no longer support collective security. Most voters no longer support US leadership on the global stage. They voted in Trump, and Trump is giving them what they voted for, which is a "tariff wall" around the United States that at least for the first few days, he is not backing down. And the implications of that are going to be significant destruction of wealth in the United States and in markets all over the world. And you saw it this morning, Hong Kong, Hang Seng down 13%. Other markets across Asia down 6%, 7& to 10%. The Europeans now following suit, though not quite as dramatic and same in the United States with the opening for the Dow and the Nasdaq. Now, look, I'm not a market watcher. I'm a political scientist.
As a political scientist, what I find very interesting here is this fight between "Deep MAGA" and "Dark MAGA." And Deep MAGA being the people that really do believe that the US has not represented them for a very long time. And what they want is a fair shake from people that are more representative. They want the ability for working and middle class to have better lives and not be taken advantage of. They want non-predatory policy domestically. Dark MAGA, globalism, free trade, and capturing the policies of a smaller state that do their bidding. And this last weekend has been a repudiation, at least tactically of Dark maga by Deep MAGA. This was the fight you saw between Elon Musk and who runs DOGE, and this happens to be the richest man in the world and the second most powerful heretofore in the Trump administration. And Peter Navarro, who is trade and manufacturing counselor for the White House and nowhere near as powerful as Elon, and yet told Elon to stay in his lane, said, "You're interested in selling cars, and what we are doing is making America great again."
Navarro's not in a fight with Elon to be clear. Navarro is supporting a policy that he knows Trump wants. And so Trump has decided that on this one, which is the most impactful policy he's put in place globally in this or in his previous administration, that he is decisively going against the globalists and he's going in favor of using American power to have manufacturing and capital in the US. Now, nevermind the fact that this is going to take a long time. That if it were to work, and if it were to work, you'd want it to be consistent. You'd want to build up American reputational capital. You'd want rule of law to be strong. You'd want people to think that they could come to US universities and prosper, that the US would be the most attractive place to send their kids to have jobs, and Trump isn't doing any of those things, so that's a problem, right?
The fact that the US is making itself less attractive as a destination and less predictable as a destination really undermines US putting massive tariffs on highest you've seen in over a hundred years to make other countries pay. But politically, what Trump could benefit from doing here is actually leaning in against the globalists. In other words, if he were to say, "Yes, this hit to the markets is a feature, it's not a bug. Portfolios, they're going to get hit. And the rich people that have benefited on the backs of the average Americans, I don't care if they don't make a lot of money. Just like the foreign governments that have been taking advantage of American free trade policy," which is overstated. But nonetheless, the politically smart thing for Trump to do domestically would be to then say, "I'm going to snap back the tax breaks that I gave to the highest bracket.
You guys are going to start paying again, and I'm going to take the money from the tariffs. Take these effectively a sales tax, all the money that the US government will be collecting from these higher goods, and I'm going to redistribute it to the average American. I'm going to give that money to the workers so that they can deal with the fact that their pensions have just blown up by 10%, by 20% or more over the coming weeks. I'm going to give them an opportunity because they're going to have to pay higher prices in a more inflationary environment where you can't actually substitute away from imports because all goods are so interconnected, whether it's automotive or it's a plane ticket or it's just a cup of coffee at your local Starbucks."
All of those things, Trump has the opportunity to lean in to the Republican base, which is also a lot of the former progressive base among Democrats who they have lost, in part because they have moved away from policies that have very popular under Trump in firming up the border against illegal immigrants, and also in opposing overly progressive woke policies that are very unpopular across the United States. Having said that, I don't think that's what he's going to do. And the reason for it is because I think that ultimately Trump is more interested in kleptocracy than he is in taking power for himself. I think he's much more transactional. He's much easier to buy off as an individual. If you give him money, he will give you the policies he wants. He's not going to throw Elon away.
Elon's already given over $250 million to the campaign, and we'll give a lot more and we'll find ways to benefit Trump and his family. A lot of people like that, that want lower taxes for the rich. A lot of people like that, that want lower regulations that allow their companies to benefit more, that ultimately screw the average person in the United States. And I think Trump is more interested in that. If you really wanted to ensure that you could benefit the poor people, you wouldn't be taking away so many of the capacities of the IRS for example. You'd want audits on wealthy people instead of wealthy people being able to avoid taxes because the IRS doesn't even have the capacity to do the most complicated audits out there.
You would have a group of policies that would be much more focused towards ensuring that the wealthy actually pay their fair share, that legal and tax policies are not buyable by special interests, and ultimately that the swamp could be drained. And that just, even though I think that's where JD Vance is more oriented, and I think that's where increasingly house Republicans are more oriented. Lord knows that's the Republican base, which today are less educated men, working class and middle class. The Democrats have lost almost all those voters, but that's not where Trump is. And I think as a consequence, the political opportunity that he has will be constrained.
That ultimately also means that there'll be more of a balance and probably more of a snap back eventually in reducing these tariffs and finding deals earlier than you would otherwise expect. So maybe the market hit long-term is not as bad as it could be in a full-on anti-globalist push by the Trump administration. But ultimately, one thing we've learned by Trump, who again used to be a Democrat before he was Republican, he's fundamentally not ideological. He's fundamentally about Trump. And here navigating that probably means less pain as opposed to more. Even though in the near term today, this week, there's going to be plenty of carnage in the United States and around the world. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Trump's tariffs & the end of globalization
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: It is the day after 'Liberation Day,' April 2nd. I'm not sure that day is going to stick. It was good not to do on April 1st. Not only because it's April Fools, but also because you had a couple of key elections in the US, in Florida and in Wisconsin. And Trump clearly wanted to go after that because he knew that these weren't going to be super popular. And yet, this is exactly what he was promising.
He has been promising tariffs. He's been promising securing American borders, securing borders from people coming into the US illegally, also securing US borders from unfair trade practices. And that is precisely what we're seeing right now. Overnight, the United States is moving to having the highest tariffs against countries of any major economy in the world by a very long margin, and also the largest average trade tariff in over a hundred years.
This is a new era. It's a post globalization era. It's a post post-war era. It's kind of the equivalent of what the Brits did with Brexit just on a global scale. Now, why these tariffs and what's behind the percentages? Because Trump's been talking about reciprocal tariffs for a very long time, and yet these aren't reciprocal. There are no countries that have the percentage tariffs on the US that the US is now putting on them in terms of goods. So how did they do that? That's the extraordinary thing, is the calculation wasn't based on the tariffs that are imposed on US goods. Rather, it was a look at the trade deficit that the US runs against those countries and taking the percentage of what the trade deficit is and applying a tariff that would get you to parity. In other words, what reciprocal from Trump's perspective is whatever would actually bring that trade deficit into trade neutrality and then just impose half of that, which makes no sense economically whatsoever.
Why not? Well, first of all, because there are a lot of poor countries around the world that have trade deficits with the US because they can't afford American goods, and the US wants to buy commodities, for example, from those countries or low tech manufacturer like from Bangladesh. And are you angry because the Bengalis aren't capable of buying Teslas from the US or buying smartphones? And the answer is, of course not. And all that's going to be is a tax. The US government will pick up revenue and the Americans will have to pay more for inexpensive goods that the US isn't going to produce. Some cases, these are goods that the Americans not only wouldn't want to produce because the labor quality and cost is really, really low and no one's going to do that work, especially when you're closing borders and taking illegals out of the population. But also, because the US economy couldn't produce them.
I mean, your tropical fruits, I mean some of them can be in the United States, but most of them need to come from other places. Coffee beans, I mean all sorts of things that the Americans are just not going to be substitution effect producing that now are just going to be higher costs for the United States, for average Americans. And then in places where the US was not in deficit, then you're just throwing a 10% tariff against. Why? Is that about fair trade? No, that's just about the Americans wanting to ensure that there are tariffs on absolutely everyone. It reminds me of the January 6th conversation where originally Trump was talking about, "Well, maybe we've got to look more carefully at all the really violent types and we're not going to want to give them amnesty. But there are a lot of people that were treated very badly, very unfairly, and so they should have amnesty and they should be pardoned."
And as the details and the debates on who should and shouldn't get a pardon came out, Trump got sick of the debate, got sick of the nuance, and said, "I'm just giving it to everybody." And I think that's what happened with tariffs. There were debates going on with large numbers of advisors around Trump, right until the last minute and he just said, "Ah, I'm just putting tariffs on everybody." And that's what's happened. And now there will be individual deals that will be cut with a bunch of countries to try to get out of that. But the reality is that the biggest trade partners of the United States, there's no quick fix. Not with Europe, not with Mexico, not with Canada, not with China. And given that, we are clearly not only out of a US-driven globalization era... That's been gone for some time now. Globalization has been moving apace, but the US has not been driving it.
The US had been kind of standing on the sidelines and pushing their own industrial policy. But now you have the United States actively unwinding globalization. And the question will be how effective will other countries be in playing defense, in hedging, and in bringing some production, more production to the United States? Because in the near-term, you expect to see a lot of countries will try to limit the damage that's being done. And the US economy is, of course, stronger and more powerful. So that will mean that a lot of countries won't immediately do reciprocal tariffs, but will try to cut deals with the Americans. A lot of companies will try to find ways to manufacture more in the US. That's near-term.
In the medium and long-term, there will be hedging. There will be efforts to find ways to de-risk their economies from the United States, from the uncertainty, the volatility, the high costs. And sure, you'll want to produce things in the US for US consumers, but most things are not being consumed by Americans. And that is increasingly true around the world. And therefore you wouldn't want to produce most things in the US in that environment. So you'll see more hedging of the Europeans towards other countries, including in some non-AI fields towards China. And I think you'll see that in bigger ways in the Global South who already have their principal trade partners as China anyway.
And then final point is keep in mind that the Americans are not really good at being patient. And Trump has been talking the entire way, not one of the most patient people in the world that, "Look, I mean, yeah, they're going to be costing in the near-term, and I don't care if the cost of cars go up. But long-term, this is good for Americans." And certainly near-term there's going to be a significant economic hit, not just in the stock market, but also in US GDP and also in inflation. And Americans, I suspect are going to be pretty angry about that because Americans are very short-term in orientation. It's a nature of free market capitalism, kleptocratic or not in the US and it's also the nature of the political system.
So that's where we are. A lot to think about on the back of these unprecedented policy moves. And remember, it is a marathon, not a sprint. We are only a couple months in. Trump has four full years, and a lot is going to happen over the course of that administration. And I'll be here to talk to you about it. Thanks a lot, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
How Europe might respond to Trump's tariffs
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What's going to be the reaction to the Trump trade war against Europe but also against the rest of the world?
Well, it was worse than expected. What you will hear coming out of Brussels is strong words, but also saying, "Well, let's try and see if we can mitigate, if we can negotiate, if we can have some changes in this." That's going to take some time. Not much hope that that will produce anything. But anyhow, the attempt will be made. And then I would expect fairly strong European countermeasures.
But then, I think the global impact of it is really astonishing. Key US allies and partners in Asia have been hit much harder, even harder than Europe. So, we see the US in terms of economy retreating from the world, and trying to build its own small fortress there behind its oceans. For us, Europeans, the conclusion must be to do the opposite, to reach out to the world. 87% of global imports are not in the US. Two thirds of the growth of the global economy is going to be in Asia-Pacific in the years to come. So, Europe, well, US is doing its own thing, can't do very much about that. But we must be even more strategic, offensive, forward-looking in reaching out to the rest of the world. Develop and preserve as much as we can of an open global trading system. That is the way to prosperity in the future.
Three big shocks facing the global economy - Zanny Minton Beddoes
According to The Economist editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes, 2025 is shaping to be a historic turning point defined by three massive global shocks. “Each of which is big enough for our grandchildren to have a chapter in their history books,” she warns on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
The first is geopolitical: the United States, once the architect of the global alliance system, is now actively challenging—and possibly undermining—it. The second is economic: the U.S. has abandoned free trade in favor of escalating tariff wars, threatening the global trading system that has defined the past 80 years. And the third, perhaps most transformative, is technological: the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, which is reshaping industries and economies faster than governments can respond. The combination of these three forces, Beddoes argues, creates massive uncertainty with the potential for severe damage.
While acknowledging that some aspects of the Trump administration’s policies—such as cutting bureaucracy and rationalizing government—may have merit, Beddoes is deeply concerned about its overall trajectory. “I just find the combination of this… bullying, transactional approach, where the view is that your gain must be my loss… fundamentally misguided,” she says. With global institutions struggling to keep pace with these shifts, the question is no longer whether the old order will survive—it’s whether the world can build a new one before chaos takes hold.
Watch full episode: Trump’s trade war: Who really wins?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
US travel warnings issued by its closest allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why are some countries issuing travel advisories for visiting the United States?
You'd call it an abundance of caution, but things are moving very quickly in the US. It's only been two months since Trump has been inaugurated. And many countries, allies of the US, feel that treatment of their citizens will not be aligned with rule of law in the United States. Certainly, worry given, for example, some green card holders facing deportation for what would be considered for an American citizen just exercise of freedom of speech, freedom of organization.
Also, they've seen what's happened with law firms and the chilling impact of Trump going after them if they are engaged in supporting lawsuits against the government. All of those things and a recognition that these are moving fast and getting more challenging quickly, quickly, quickly, is making a whole bunch of American allies issue travel advisories telling their citizens, "You shouldn't be traveling to the US right now." We've already seen a big economic impact of Canada tourism to the United States hurting the US economy. Haven't seen that as much from Europe yet, but I expect that you will. And of course, in terms of people that are applying for green cards and wanting to get jobs in top American corporations or apply to be students at top American universities, I think that's going to have a big impact going forward longer term.
How are the political tensions in Netanyahu's government impacting the war with Hamas?
Well, the fact that the far-right coalition is fully back together because the war has restarted. That's why the far-right party left, and that was because they didn't like the ceasefire and they certainly were opposed to phase two that would've led to the Israelis to do a full pullout of the military from Gaza. Well, now the war has restarted, the Israeli government is talking directly about annexation if the hostages are not all released. And they're doing that with full support of the United States. Big demonstrations in Israel, concerned that Israel is no longer going to be a democracy, especially because the prime minister has now sacked his Attorney General, has sacked the head of the Shin Bet, both unprecedented for Israel since independence. But Netanyahu has full support from his coalition and from the United States. So, he's in a strong position right now.
Will public outcry over the arrest of Istanbul's mayor lead to major political reforms or shifts within the Turkish government?
I don't expect so at all. They are allowing for large demonstrations to continue in Istanbul, even though President Erdogan has said that's illegal, in part because there's a lot of media there. There's a lot of focus there. They clearly want to limit that violence. But they've been cracking down really hard everywhere else in the country, including the capital, Ankara. They've dealt with this sort of thing in the past. The military is fully aligned with Erdogan, and the top is quite politicized. Media, dido, overwhelmingly aligned with the state. So is the judiciary after the failed coup attempt.
So for all of those reasons, I think this is going to be a move from Erdogan towards a more direct autocracy as opposed to a hybrid system. Unfortunate and yet one more place where the Europeans are in trouble. But nonetheless he's been quite useful to a number of other countries around the world in terms of dealing with refugees from Syria. If you're the Europeans, dealing with Turkey on the ground, dealing with Syria on the ground, and stability if you're the United States. And the Gulf States have found him useful as an interlocutor as well on Russia-Ukraine too. So for all of those reasons, very important internationally, very repressive domestically. Two things I expect to continue.