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What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?
Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.
Will Syria's newly formed transitional government be enough for Arab and Western leaders to lift sanctions and restore diplomatic ties?
I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? And there, there's a huge question because this is a completely untested government, completely inexperienced, no governance background, very little background in terms of military stability, especially with all of the new members, militias that have been integrated from across a very diverse country. And a lot of internal opponents that are sitting back and waiting to fight. So I'm more worried about that than I am about international support. I think largely the international support they need is going to be there.
Why does Trump want to take Greenland?
I have no idea. Maybe somebody showed him a globe from the top and he saw how big it was, and he's like, "Oh, that'd be kind of cool to have." It's not like there's anything he needs that he can't get directly from negotiating with Denmark. Plenty of willingness to allow the US to have expanded bases, troops on the ground. Plenty of willingness from other countries in the region to do more in terms of patrolling, build more icebreakers to deal with. The Finnish President, Alex Stubb, who just went to see him golfing with him, spent seven hours over the weekend moving in that direction. But you saw from Vice President Vance, he's like, "Well, the President wants it. So of course I got to respond to that." Yeah, but they don't have any reason. And I do think that it is sufficiently blowing up in their faces on the ground in Denmark and in Greenland, that the Danes understand not to make a big deal out of this and it will eventually blow over. It is annoying to them symbolically, but it doesn't matter all that much. In that regard, we can spend a little bit less time on it. Okay, that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
President Donald Trump waves as he walks before departing for Florida from the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on March 28, 2025.
Trump scolds Putin over Ukraine after Moscow greenlights his ambitions for Greenland
Is the bloom off the bromance between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin? On Sunday, Trump took Putin to task over Russia’s foot-dragging on a ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened to tariff Russian oil and impose more sanctions on the country.
“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault ... I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said. “That would be, that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States … There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.” So far, there’s been no reaction from the Kremlin, but Trump said he would be talking with Putin this week.
A Greenland connection? Trump’s comments came a day after he reaffirmed his interest in acquiring Greenland for reasons of American and international security – something that Putin seems just fine with. At an Arctic policy forum in Murmansk on Thursday, Putin expounded on the “historical roots” of America’s interest in the island and said it was a matter that did not concern Russia.
But it may concern Ukraine. In the same speech, Putin said he would support a UN-led administration in Ukraine to hold new elections. And Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s envoy for foreign investment and economic cooperation, said that while Moscow is open for investment cooperation in the Arctic with the US, “before deals can be done the war in Ukraine needs to end.”
Trump’s trade war: Who really wins?
“Who benefits from this trade war?” That’s the question that Zanny Minton Beddoes rhetorically poses midway through her interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. And it’s the question at the heart of this episode. US President Donald Trump has a simple answer: We do. The rest of the world, though, may beg to differ. So how does Trump’s tit-for-tat tariff war threaten to reshape the global economy? And is it necessarily a bad thing if it does?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The economic waves of Trump 2.0: Insights from The Economist's Zanny Minton Beddoes
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer, we ask The Economist's editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes: Did Wall Street get President Trump wrong?
Candidate Trump promised to lower taxes and drastically reduce government regulation. This message resonated as much with Wall Street as it did with Main Street. After surviving, if not thriving, under President Trump's first term in office, the business community no longer feared Trump's unpredictability. They overlooked his fixation on tariffs and his promises of mass deportations.
However, the first months of Trump 2.0 have been a time of economic warfare and market volatility. President Trump slapped tariffs on America's largest trading partners and closest allies and began to make good on a promise to deport millions of illegal immigrants. So where is this all heading, and what does it mean for the rest of the world?
Did Wall Street get Trump wrong?
President Trump's volatile economic policies are roiling markets and scaring investors. Does he care? Did Wall Street get President Trump wrong? On the campaign trail, he made plenty of comments that appealed to business leaders and investors. Lower taxes, lower prices, and less regulation. Having survived, in fact, thrived during Trump’s first term in office, they no longer feared Trump’s unpredictability. They overlooked his fixation on tariffs and his promises of mass deportations. Investors and business leaders alike are starting to realize they may have gotten Trump 2.0 wrong. President Trump has given Wall Street a reality check, now we’ll see if they wake up.
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television this weekend (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
People gather for the "Elbows up" rally on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on March 9, 2025.
China, Mexico, and Canada take different paths to tackle tariffs
On March 4, 2025, US President Donald Trumpincreased tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%. The same day, the US imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. Two days later, Trump announced that goods and services covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, aka USMCA, would be exempt until April 2, when reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect against all countries around the globe. Canadian energy and potash remain tariffed at 10%, while its steel and aluminum are tariffed at 25%.
Faced with these realities, Mexico, China, and Canada are pursuing very different strategies. What’s working, what’s not, and what’s next?
Mexico has opted for a “respectful” approach prioritizing dialogue over reprisals. In January, President Claudia Sheinbaum launched “Plan Mexico” to address her country’s $105 billion trade imbalance with China by boosting domestic production and attracting investments. She also aggressively tackled drug cartels and migration, Trump’s two pet peeves at the border. In a phone call on March 5, Trump told her, “You’re tough,” and announced his intent to grant Mexico its USMCA reprieve until April 2.
China has taken decisive retaliatory actions – but also sees an opportunity. Vowing to fight “to the bitter end,” Beijing imposed additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 15% on specific American imports, notably soybeans, pork, beef, chicken, and cotton, which will hurt Trump’s Midwestern voters. But China will also leverage America’s April 2 tariffs to boost trade with other nations, potentially offsetting losses in the US market.
Canada has been the most aggressive, going “elbows up” – a hockey term signaling defiance. Ottawa imposed counter-tariffs that could imperil 3.7 million jobs in red US states, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to impose a surcharge on electricity exports (which he later withdrew). This week, newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Europe to shore up trade with the UK and France, rather than engaging first with Washington.
Why the tough stance? For Canada, this isn’t just about tariffs. Trump’s continuous talk of making Canada the 51st US state has enraged Canadians, who are canceling US holidays and boycotting American products. It has also upended the next Canadian election, which Carney is expected to call within days, and which he could now win on the back of anti-Trump sentiment.Ontario Premier Doug Ford prepares to speak to an American news outlet in his office at the Queens Park Legislature in Toronto on Monday, March 10, 2025.
Canada and US to discuss renewed USMCA following tariff de-escalation
In a major development on Tuesday, Ontario, Canada, suspended its 25% surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota. Premier Doug Ford also said that he, US Secretary of CommerceHoward Lutnick, and the United States Trade Representative will meet on March 13 to discuss a renewed USMCA ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline. Ford announced the move on X and indicated that he and Lutnick had a “productive conversation about the economic relationship between the United States and Canada.”
The announcement followed US President Donald Trump’s threat Tuesday morning that tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports would increase from 25% to 50% starting March 12. Trump said he would declare a “national emergency” in the three states and posted to Truth Social, “Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat?”
In response to Ford’s suspending the electricity surcharges from Ontario, Trump reversed course late Tuesday, revoking his imposition of the additional 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. But the planned 25% tariff on the industry will still go into effect on Wednesday.U.S. President Donald Trump attends a press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (not pictured) at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
Trump’s tariffs back on, until they’re not
US President Donald Trump announced Thursday thata 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4, reversing comments made one day earlier that suggesteda delay until April.
Why the change? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnicksaid last month that if the two countries made progress on border security, there could be room for negotiation. But Trump claims drugs are still “pouring into our country”and added, “We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA.” He also blamed China for the flow of fentanyl and announced that he would add an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods on the same date.
The reality: US border data showsa 97% decline in fentanyl seizures coming from Canada from December to January. In that time, Canada began deploying its $1.3 billion border security package and appointed a fentanyl czar. Canada’s ambassador to the US, Kirsten Hillmann, also noted that illegal migration from Canada dropped by 90% in recent months, a fact that apparently was positively received in Washington.
What’s next? Canadian public safety officials are in Washington, DC, this week to present evidence of Canada’s progress in a last-ditch attempt to keep tariffs at bay. Additional tariffs on steel and aluminum tariffs are due to stack on top of the 25% tariffs starting March 12.
Could things change again? Based on Trump’s previous flip-flops, anything is possible. For now, industries on both sides of the border are preparing for the worst.